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Canada

212 CPC 74 LPC 38 BQ 17 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats ON 91 26 4 1 QC 38 25 14 1 BC 33 6 3 1 AB 36 1 MB 7 4 3 SK 13 1 NS 6 5 NB 6 4 NL 4 3 PEI 3 1 YK NWT NU 338Canada federal projections Click on map to see projection details Updated on July 21, 2024


172 seats needed for a majority
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Seat-by-seat
projection		 Last election
(2021)
140 30 21 21 212
[179-234]		 119
25 19 18 12 74
[51-101]		 160
27 7 3 1 38
[33-44]		 32
7 7 0 3 17
[11-30]		 25
0 1 1 0 2
[1-3]		 2

Latest update: July 21, 2024

Electoral district Transposed
2021 winner		 Latest projection
10001 Avalon Toss up LPC/CPC
10002 Cape Spear LPC safe
10003 Central Newfoundland CPC likely
10004 Labrador Toss up LPC/CPC
10005 Long Range Mountains CPC likely
10006 St. John’s East LPC leaning
10007 Terra Nova—The Peninsulas CPC likely
11001 Cardigan LPC leaning
11002 Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC
11003 Egmont Toss up LPC/CPC
11004 Malpeque CPC leaning
12001 Acadie—Annapolis CPC safe
12002 Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish CPC leaning
12003 Central Nova CPC leaning
12004 Cumberland—Colchester CPC safe
12005 Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC likely
12006 Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP
12007 Halifax West LPC likely
12008 Kings—Hants Toss up LPC/CPC
12009 Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC likely
12010 South Shore—St. Margarets CPC safe
12011 Sydney—Glace Bay CPC leaning
13001 Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe
13002 Beauséjour LPC safe
13003 Fredericton—Oromocto CPC likely
13004 Fundy Royal CPC safe
13005 Madawaska—Restigouche LPC likely
13006 Miramichi—Grand Lake CPC safe
13007 Moncton—Dieppe LPC safe
13008 Saint John—Kennebecasis CPC likely
13009 Saint John—St. Croix CPC safe
13010 Tobique—Mactaquac CPC safe
24001 Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ safe
24002 Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ safe
24003 Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe
24004 Alfred-Pellan LPC likely
24005 Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ likely
24006 Beauce CPC safe
24007 Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ safe
24008 Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ
24009 Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak BQ safe
24010 Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe
24011 Beloeil—Chambly BQ safe
24012 Berthier—Maskinongé BQ likely
24013 Bourassa LPC safe
24014 Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely
24015 Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe
24016 Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe
24017 Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ likely
24018 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CPC likely
24019 Compton—Stanstead BQ likely
24020 Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC safe
24021 Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ safe
24022 Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe
24023 Drummond BQ safe
24024 Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely
24025 Gatineau LPC likely
24026 Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Toss up LPC/BQ
24027 Honoré-Mercier LPC safe
24028 Hull—Aylmer LPC safe
24029 Joliette—Manawan BQ safe
24030 Jonquière BQ likely
24031 La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ safe
24032 La Prairie—Atateken BQ safe
24033 Lac-Saint-Jean BQ safe
24034 Lac-Saint-Louis LPC likely
24035 LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC leaning
24036 Laurentides—Labelle BQ safe
24037 Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC leaning
24038 Laval—Les-Îles LPC leaning
24039 Les Pays-d’en-Haut BQ safe
24040 Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe
24041 Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning
24042 Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ safe
24043 Louis-Hébert CPC leaning
24044 Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC safe
24045 Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Toss up LPC/BQ
24046 Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe
24047 Mirabel BQ safe
24048 Mount Royal LPC likely
24049 Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie BQ safe
24050 Montcalm BQ safe
24051 Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
24052 Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe
24053 Outremont LPC likely
24054 Papineau LPC safe
24055 Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ safe
24056 Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC likely
24057 Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC leaning
24058 Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe
24059 Québec Centre BQ leaning
24060 Repentigny BQ safe
24061 Richmond—Arthabaska CPC safe
24062 Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ safe
24063 Rivière-des-Milles-Îles BQ safe
24064 Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe
24065 Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP safe
24066 Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ safe
24067 Saint-Jean BQ safe
24068 Saint-Laurent LPC safe
24069 Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe
24070 Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC leaning
24071 Shefford BQ safe
24072 Sherbrooke BQ leaning
24073 Terrebonne BQ safe
24074 Thérèse-De Blainville BQ safe
24075 Trois-Rivières CPC leaning
24076 Vaudreuil LPC safe
24077 Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe
24078 Vimy LPC safe
35001 Ajax LPC likely
35002 Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe
35003 Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC safe
35004 Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe
35005 Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC safe
35006 Bay of Quinte CPC safe
35007 Beaches—East York LPC safe
35008 Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC safe
35009 Brampton Centre CPC leaning
35010 Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC
35011 Brampton East LPC leaning
35012 Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC
35013 Brampton South LPC leaning
35014 Brampton West LPC leaning
35015 Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC safe
35016 Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC safe
35017 Burlington CPC likely
35018 Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely
35019 Cambridge CPC safe
35020 Carleton CPC safe
35021 Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe
35022 Davenport LPC leaning
35023 Don Valley North CPC leaning
35024 Don Valley West Toss up LPC/CPC
35025 Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe
35026 Eglinton—Lawrence CPC safe
35027 Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC safe
35028 Essex CPC safe
35029 Etobicoke Centre CPC likely
35030 Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC likely
35031 Etobicoke North LPC leaning
35032 Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC safe
35033 Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC
35034 Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe
35035 Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe
35036 Hamilton Centre NDP safe
35037 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely
35038 Hamilton Mountain Toss up CPC/NDP
35039 Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC leaning
35040 Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC safe
35041 Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe
35042 Huron—Bruce CPC safe
35043 Kanata CPC likely
35044 Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Toss up CPC/NDP
35045 Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC safe
35046 Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35047 King—Vaughan CPC safe
35048 Kitchener Centre GPC leaning
35049 Kitchener—Conestoga CPC safe
35050 Kitchener South—Hespeler CPC safe
35051 Lanark—Frontenac CPC safe
35052 Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC safe
35053 London Centre Toss up CPC/NDP
35054 London—Fanshawe NDP likely
35055 London West CPC safe
35056 Markham—Stouffville CPC leaning
35057 Markham—Thornhill LPC likely
35058 Markham—Unionville CPC likely
35059 Middlesex—London CPC safe
35060 Milton East—Halton Hills South CPC safe
35061 Mississauga Centre LPC leaning
35062 Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up LPC/CPC
35063 Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up LPC/CPC
35064 Mississauga—Lakeshore CPC likely
35065 Mississauga—Malton Toss up LPC/CPC
35066 Mississauga—Streetsville CPC leaning
35067 Nepean CPC likely
35068 Newmarket—Aurora CPC safe
35069 New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe
35070 Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC safe
35071 Niagara South CPC safe
35072 Niagara West CPC safe
35073 Nipissing—Timiskaming CPC safe
35074 Northumberland—Clarke CPC safe
35075 Oakville East CPC likely
35076 Oakville West CPC likely
35077 Orléans LPC leaning
35078 Oshawa CPC safe
35079 Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
35080 Ottawa South LPC leaning
35081 Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC likely
35082 Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC
35083 Oxford CPC safe
35084 Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC safe
35085 Perth—Wellington CPC safe
35086 Peterborough CPC safe
35087 Pickering—Brooklin CPC leaning
35088 Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC leaning
35089 Richmond Hill South CPC likely
35090 Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe
35091 Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma CPC safe
35092 Scarborough—Agincourt Toss up LPC/CPC
35093 Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC leaning
35094 Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC likely
35095 Scarborough North LPC safe
35096 Scarborough Southwest LPC likely
35097 Scarborough—Woburn LPC likely
35098 Simcoe—Grey CPC safe
35099 Simcoe North CPC safe
35100 Spadina—Harbourfront Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35101 St. Catharines CPC safe
35102 Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe
35103 Sudbury CPC likely
35104 Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning
35105 Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park Toss up LPC/NDP
35106 Thornhill CPC safe
35107 Thunder Bay—Rainy River CPC likely
35108 Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35109 Toronto Centre LPC safe
35110 Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35111 Toronto—St. Paul’s Toss up LPC/CPC
35112 University—Rosedale LPC likely
35113 Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe
35114 Waterloo Toss up LPC/CPC
35115 Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC safe
35116 Whitby CPC likely
35117 Willowdale CPC likely
35118 Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore CPC leaning
35119 Windsor West NDP safe
35120 York Centre CPC safe
35121 York—Durham CPC safe
35122 York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely
46001 Brandon—Souris CPC safe
46002 Churchill—Kewatinook Aski NDP likely
46003 Elmwood—Transcona NDP likely
46004 Kildonan—St. Paul CPC safe
46005 Portage—Lisgar CPC safe
46006 Provencher CPC safe
46007 Riding Mountain CPC safe
46008 St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC safe
46009 Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe
46010 Winnipeg Centre NDP likely
46011 Winnipeg North LPC safe
46012 Winnipeg South LPC likely
46013 Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe
46014 Winnipeg West Toss up LPC/CPC
47001 Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe
47002 Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe
47003 Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC leaning
47004 Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe
47005 Prince Albert CPC safe
47006 Regina—Lewvan CPC safe
47007 Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe
47008 Regina—Wascana CPC safe
47009 Saskatoon South CPC safe
47010 Saskatoon—University CPC safe
47011 Saskatoon West CPC likely
47012 Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe
47013 Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe
47014 Yorkton—Melville CPC safe
48001 Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe
48002 Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe
48003 Bow River CPC safe
48004 Calgary Centre CPC safe
48005 Calgary Confederation CPC safe
48006 Calgary Crowfoot CPC safe
48007 Calgary East CPC safe
48008 Calgary Heritage CPC safe
48009 Calgary McKnight CPC leaning
48010 Calgary Midnapore CPC safe
48011 Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe
48012 Calgary Shephard CPC safe
48013 Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe
48014 Calgary Skyview CPC safe
48015 Edmonton Centre CPC likely
48016 Edmonton Gateway CPC safe
48017 Edmonton Griesbach CPC leaning
48018 Edmonton Manning CPC safe
48019 Edmonton Northwest CPC safe
48020 Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe
48021 Edmonton Southeast CPC safe
48022 Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe
48023 Edmonton West CPC safe
48024 Foothills CPC safe
48025 Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe
48026 Grande Prairie CPC safe
48027 Lakeland CPC safe
48028 Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe
48029 Lethbridge CPC safe
48030 Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe
48031 Parkland CPC safe
48032 Peace River—Westlock CPC safe
48033 Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe
48034 Red Deer CPC safe
48035 Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe
48036 St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe
48037 Yellowhead CPC safe
59001 Abbotsford—South Langley CPC safe
59002 Burnaby Central Toss up CPC/NDP
59003 Burnaby North—Seymour CPC leaning
59004 Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe
59005 Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe
59006 Cloverdale—Langley City CPC safe
59007 Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe
59008 Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam CPC likely
59009 Courtenay—Alberni CPC leaning
59010 Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Toss up CPC/NDP
59011 Delta CPC safe
59012 Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke NDP likely
59013 Fleetwood—Port Kells CPC leaning
59014 Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC safe
59015 Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC safe
59016 Kelowna CPC safe
59017 Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC safe
59018 Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC safe
59019 Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely
59020 New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville NDP likely
59021 North Island—Powell River CPC safe
59022 North Vancouver—Capilano CPC likely
59023 Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC safe
59024 Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC safe
59025 Port Moody—Coquitlam CPC likely
59026 Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe
59027 Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC safe
59028 Richmond East—Steveston CPC safe
59029 Saanich—Gulf Islands GPC likely
59030 Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC safe
59031 Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC likely
59032 South Surrey—White Rock CPC safe
59033 Surrey Centre LPC leaning
59034 Surrey Newton LPC safe
59035 Vancouver Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
59036 Vancouver East NDP safe
59037 Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Toss up LPC/CPC
59038 Vancouver Granville CPC leaning
59039 Vancouver Kingsway NDP safe
59040 Vancouver Quadra CPC likely
59041 Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC safe
59042 Victoria NDP safe
59043 West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country CPC safe
60001 Yukon Toss up CPC/NDP
61001 Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP
62001 Nunavut NDP likely