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	Safe	Likely	Leaning	Toss up	Seat-by-seat projection	Odds-based projection average	Last election (2021)
	83	37	28	14	162 [128-185]	157 ± 28	160
	80	19	12	5	116 [96-141]	119 ± 23	119
	14	6	5	3	28 [18-45]	31 ± 13	25
	17	6	4	3	30 [22-36]	29 ± 7	32
	2	0	0	0	2 [1-3]	2 ± 1	2

Last update: November 28, 2021

Electoral district	Current party	Latest projection
10001 Avalon		LPC safe
10002 Bonavista–Burin–Trinity		LPC leaning
10003 Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame		Toss up LPC/CPC
10004 Labrador		LPC likely
10005 Long Range Mountains		LPC leaning
10006 St. John’s East		LPC likely
10007 St. John’s South–Mount Pearl		LPC safe
11001 Cardigan		LPC safe
11002 Charlottetown		LPC likely
11003 Egmont		LPC likely
11004 Malpeque		LPC likely
12001 Cape Breton–Canso		LPC likely
12002 Central Nova		LPC safe
12003 Cumberland–Colchester		CPC likely
12004 Dartmouth–Cole Harbour		LPC safe
12005 Halifax		Toss up LPC/NDP
12006 Halifax West		LPC safe
12007 Kings–Hants		LPC safe
12008 Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook		LPC likely
12009 South Shore–St. Margarets		Toss up LPC/CPC
12010 Sydney–Victoria		LPC leaning
12011 West Nova		CPC likely
13001 Acadie–Bathurst		LPC safe
13002 Beauséjour		LPC safe
13003 Fredericton		LPC leaning
13004 Fundy Royal		CPC safe
13005 Madawaska–Restigouche		LPC safe
13006 Miramichi–Grand Lake		Toss up LPC/CPC
13007 Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe		LPC safe
13008 New Brunswick Southwest		CPC safe
13009 Saint John–Rothesay		LPC safe
13010 Tobique–Mactaquac		CPC safe
24001 Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou		BQ likely
24002 Abitibi–Témiscamingue		BQ safe
24003 Ahuntsic-Cartierville		LPC safe
24004 Alfred-Pellan		LPC safe
24005 Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation		LPC leaning
24006 Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia		BQ safe
24007 Beauce		CPC safe
24008 Beauport–Limoilou		Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
24009 Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel		BQ safe
24010 Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis		CPC safe
24011 Beloeil–Chambly		BQ safe
24012 Berthier–Maskinongé		BQ leaning
24013 Thérèse-De Blainville		Toss up LPC/BQ
24014 Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères		BQ safe
24015 Bourassa		LPC safe
24016 Brome–Missisquoi		LPC leaning
24017 Brossard–Saint-Lambert		LPC safe
24018 Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques		BQ safe
24019 Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles		CPC safe
24020 Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix		BQ likely
24021 Châteauguay–Lacolle		LPC leaning
24022 Chicoutimi–Le Fjord		CPC leaning
24023 Compton–Stanstead		LPC likely
24024 Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle		LPC safe
24025 Drummond		BQ safe
24026 Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine		LPC likely
24027 Gatineau		LPC safe
24028 Hochelaga		LPC likely
24029 Honoré-Mercier		LPC safe
24030 Hull–Aylmer		LPC safe
24031 Joliette		BQ safe
24032 Jonquière		BQ likely
24033 La Pointe-de-l’Île		BQ likely
24034 La Prairie		BQ leaning
24035 Lac-Saint-Jean		BQ safe
24036 Lac-Saint-Louis		LPC safe
24037 LaSalle–Émard–Verdun		LPC safe
24038 Laurentides–Labelle		BQ safe
24039 Laurier–Sainte-Marie		LPC leaning
24040 Laval–Les Îles		LPC safe
24041 Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne		LPC likely
24042 Lévis–Lotbinière		CPC safe
24043 Longueuil–Saint-Hubert		Toss up LPC/BQ
24044 Louis-Hébert		LPC safe
24045 Louis-Saint-Laurent		CPC safe
24046 Manicouagan		BQ safe
24047 Mégantic–L’Érable		CPC safe
24048 Mirabel		BQ safe
24049 Montarville		BQ leaning
24050 Montcalm		BQ safe
24051 Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup		CPC safe
24052 Mount Royal		LPC safe
24053 Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount		LPC safe
24054 Outremont		LPC safe
24055 Papineau		LPC safe
24056 Pierrefonds–Dollard		LPC safe
24057 Pontiac		LPC safe
24058 Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier		CPC safe
24059 Québec		LPC likely
24060 Repentigny		BQ safe
24061 Richmond–Arthabaska		CPC safe
24062 Rivière-des-Mille-Îles		Toss up LPC/BQ
24063 Rivière-du-Nord		BQ safe
24064 Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie		NDP safe
24065 Marc-Aurèle-Fortin		LPC safe
24066 Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot		BQ safe
24067 Saint-Jean		BQ likely
24068 Saint-Laurent		LPC safe
24069 Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel		LPC safe
24070 Saint-Maurice–Champlain		LPC safe
24071 Salaberry–Suroît		BQ safe
24072 Shefford		BQ leaning
24073 Sherbrooke		LPC likely
24074 Vaudreuil–Soulanges		LPC safe
24075 Terrebonne		BQ likely
24076 Trois-Rivières		Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
24077 Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs		LPC safe
24078 Vimy		LPC safe
35001 Ajax		LPC safe
35002 Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing		NDP safe
35003 Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill		LPC leaning
35004 Barrie–Innisfil		CPC safe
35005 Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte		CPC likely
35006 Bay of Quinte		CPC leaning
35007 Beaches–East York		LPC safe
35008 Brampton Centre		LPC likely
35009 Brampton East		LPC safe
35010 Brampton North		LPC safe
35011 Brampton South		LPC safe
35012 Brampton West		LPC safe
35013 Brantford–Brant		CPC likely
35014 Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound		CPC safe
35015 Burlington		LPC likely
35016 Cambridge		LPC leaning
35017 Chatham-Kent–Leamington		CPC likely
35018 Davenport		Toss up LPC/NDP
35019 Don Valley East		LPC safe
35020 Don Valley North		LPC safe
35021 Don Valley West		LPC safe
35022 Dufferin–Caledon		CPC safe
35023 Durham		CPC safe
35024 Eglinton–Lawrence		LPC likely
35025 Elgin–Middlesex–London		CPC safe
35026 Essex		CPC leaning
35027 Etobicoke Centre		LPC likely
35028 Etobicoke–Lakeshore		LPC safe
35029 Etobicoke North		LPC safe
35030 Flamborough–Glanbrook		CPC leaning
35031 Glengarry–Prescott–Russell		LPC likely
35032 Guelph		LPC safe
35033 Haldimand–Norfolk		CPC safe
35034 Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock		CPC safe
35035 Hamilton Centre		NDP safe
35036 Hamilton East–Stoney Creek		LPC likely
35037 Hamilton Mountain		Toss up LPC/NDP
35038 Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas		LPC safe
35039 Hastings–Lennox and Addington		CPC likely
35040 Huron–Bruce		CPC safe
35041 Kanata–Carleton		LPC leaning
35042 Kenora		CPC leaning
35043 King–Vaughan		Toss up LPC/CPC
35044 Kingston and the Islands		LPC likely
35045 Kitchener Centre		GPC safe
35046 Kitchener–Conestoga		Toss up LPC/CPC
35047 Kitchener South–Hespeler		Toss up LPC/CPC
35048 Lambton–Kent–Middlesex		CPC safe
35049 Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston		CPC safe
35050 Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes		CPC safe
35051 London–Fanshawe		NDP safe
35052 London North Centre		LPC likely
35053 London West		LPC leaning
35054 Markham–Stouffville		LPC likely
35055 Markham–Thornhill		LPC safe
35056 Markham–Unionville		LPC leaning
35057 Milton		LPC safe
35058 Mississauga Centre		LPC safe
35059 Mississauga East–Cooksville		LPC safe
35060 Mississauga–Erin Mills		LPC safe
35061 Mississauga–Lakeshore		LPC leaning
35062 Mississauga–Malton		LPC safe
35063 Mississauga–Streetsville		LPC likely
35064 Nepean		LPC likely
35065 Newmarket–Aurora		LPC leaning
35066 Niagara Centre		LPC leaning
35067 Niagara Falls		CPC leaning
35068 Niagara West		CPC likely
35069 Nickel Belt		LPC leaning
35070 Nipissing–Timiskaming		LPC leaning
35071 Northumberland–Peterborough South		CPC likely
35072 Oakville		LPC leaning
35073 Oakville North–Burlington		LPC likely
35074 Oshawa		CPC leaning
35075 Ottawa Centre		LPC likely
35076 Orléans		LPC safe
35077 Ottawa South		LPC safe
35078 Ottawa–Vanier		LPC safe
35079 Ottawa West–Nepean		LPC safe
35080 Oxford		CPC safe
35081 Parkdale–High Park		Toss up LPC/NDP
35082 Parry Sound–Muskoka		CPC safe
35083 Perth–Wellington		CPC safe
35084 Peterborough–Kawartha		CPC leaning
35085 Pickering–Uxbridge		LPC likely
35086 Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke		CPC safe
35087 Richmond Hill		LPC likely
35088 Carleton		CPC likely
35089 St. Catharines		LPC leaning
35090 Toronto–St. Paul’s		LPC safe
35091 Sarnia–Lambton		CPC safe
35092 Sault Ste. Marie		Toss up LPC/CPC
35093 Scarborough–Agincourt		LPC safe
35094 Scarborough Centre		LPC safe
35095 Scarborough–Guildwood		LPC safe
35096 Scarborough North		LPC safe
35097 Scarborough–Rouge Park		LPC safe
35098 Scarborough Southwest		LPC safe
35099 Simcoe–Grey		CPC safe
35100 Simcoe North		CPC likely
35101 Spadina–Fort York		Toss up LPC/NDP
35102 Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry		CPC safe
35103 Sudbury		Toss up LPC/NDP
35104 Thornhill		CPC likely
35105 Thunder Bay–Rainy River		Toss up LPC/NDP
35106 Thunder Bay–Superior North		LPC likely
35107 Timmins–James Bay		NDP likely
35108 Toronto Centre		LPC safe
35109 Toronto–Danforth		Toss up LPC/NDP
35110 University–Rosedale		LPC safe
35111 Vaughan–Woodbridge		LPC leaning
35112 Waterloo		LPC safe
35113 Wellington–Halton Hills		CPC safe
35114 Whitby		LPC likely
35115 Willowdale		LPC safe
35116 Windsor–Tecumseh		NDP leaning
35117 Windsor West		NDP safe
35118 York Centre		LPC likely
35119 York–Simcoe		CPC safe
35120 York South–Weston		LPC safe
35121 Humber River–Black Creek		LPC safe
46001 Brandon–Souris		CPC safe
46002 Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley		LPC leaning
46003 Churchill–Keewatinook Aski		NDP likely
46004 Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa		CPC safe
46005 Elmwood–Transcona		NDP safe
46006 Kildonan–St. Paul		CPC leaning
46007 Portage–Lisgar		CPC safe
46008 Provencher		CPC safe
46009 Saint Boniface–Saint Vital		LPC safe
46010 Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman		CPC safe
46011 Winnipeg Centre		NDP safe
46012 Winnipeg North		LPC safe
46013 Winnipeg South		LPC safe
46014 Winnipeg South Centre		LPC safe
47001 Battlefords–Lloydminster		CPC safe
47002 Cypress Hills–Grasslands		CPC safe
47003 Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River		CPC likely
47004 Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek		CPC safe
47005 Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan		CPC safe
47006 Prince Albert		CPC safe
47007 Regina–Lewvan		CPC likely
47008 Regina–Qu’Appelle		CPC safe
47009 Regina–Wascana		CPC safe
47010 Saskatoon–Grasswood		CPC likely
47011 Saskatoon–University		CPC leaning
47012 Saskatoon West		Toss up CPC/NDP
47013 Souris–Moose Mountain		CPC safe
47014 Yorkton–Melville		CPC safe
48001 Banff–Airdrie		CPC safe
48002 Battle River–Crowfoot		CPC safe
48003 Bow River		CPC safe
48004 Calgary Centre		CPC likely
48005 Calgary Confederation		CPC likely
48006 Calgary Forest Lawn		CPC likely
48007 Calgary Heritage		CPC safe
48008 Calgary Midnapore		CPC safe
48009 Calgary Nose Hill		CPC safe
48010 Calgary Rocky Ridge		CPC safe
48011 Calgary Shepard		CPC safe
48012 Calgary Signal Hill		CPC safe
48013 Calgary Skyview		LPC likely
48014 Edmonton Centre		LPC leaning
48015 Edmonton Griesbach		NDP leaning
48016 Edmonton Manning		CPC likely
48017 Edmonton Mill Woods		Toss up LPC/CPC
48018 Edmonton Riverbend		CPC safe
48019 Edmonton Strathcona		NDP safe
48020 Edmonton West		CPC safe
48021 Edmonton–Wetaskiwin		CPC safe
48022 Foothills		CPC safe
48023 Fort McMurray–Cold Lake		CPC safe
48024 Grande Prairie–Mackenzie		CPC safe
48025 Lakeland		CPC safe
48026 Lethbridge		CPC safe
48027 Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner		CPC safe
48028 Peace River–Westlock		CPC safe
48029 Red Deer–Mountain View		CPC safe
48030 Red Deer–Lacombe		CPC safe
48031 St. Albert–Edmonton		CPC safe
48032 Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan		CPC safe
48033 Sturgeon River–Parkland		CPC safe
48034 Yellowhead		CPC safe
59001 Abbotsford		CPC safe
59002 Burnaby North–Seymour		LPC likely
59003 Burnaby South		NDP likely
59004 Cariboo–Prince George		CPC safe
59005 Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola		CPC safe
59006 Chilliwack–Hope		CPC safe
59007 Cloverdale–Langley City		LPC leaning
59008 Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam		LPC likely
59009 Courtenay–Alberni		NDP likely
59010 Cowichan–Malahat–Langford		NDP safe
59011 Delta		LPC likely
59012 Fleetwood–Port Kells		LPC safe
59013 Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo		CPC likely
59014 Kelowna–Lake Country		CPC safe
59015 Kootenay–Columbia		CPC leaning
59016 Langley–Aldergrove		CPC safe
59017 Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon		CPC safe
59018 Nanaimo–Ladysmith		Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC
59019 New Westminster–Burnaby		NDP safe
59020 North Okanagan–Shuswap		CPC safe
59021 North Vancouver		LPC safe
59022 Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge		CPC leaning
59023 Port Moody–Coquitlam		NDP leaning
59024 Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies		CPC safe
59025 Richmond Centre		LPC leaning
59026 Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke		NDP safe
59027 Saanich–Gulf Islands		GPC safe
59028 Skeena–Bulkley Valley		NDP leaning
59029 South Okanagan–West Kootenay		NDP likely
59030 South Surrey–White Rock		Toss up LPC/CPC
59031 Steveston–Richmond East		LPC likely
59032 Surrey Centre		LPC safe
59033 Surrey–Newton		LPC safe
59034 Vancouver Centre		LPC likely
59035 Vancouver East		NDP safe
59036 Vancouver Granville		Toss up LPC/NDP
59037 North Island–Powell River		NDP leaning
59038 Vancouver Kingsway		NDP safe
59039 Vancouver Quadra		LPC safe
59040 Vancouver South		LPC safe
59041 Victoria		NDP safe
59042 West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country		LPC leaning
60001 Yukon		LPC leaning
61001 Northwest Territories		LPC leaning
62001 Nunavut		NDP likely

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