The Road to 172 Seats

	Safe	Likely	Leaning	Toss up	Seat-by-seat projection	Last election (2025)
	97	46	32	21	196 [153-240]	169
	39	29	31	19	118 [76-162]	144
	0	8	7	4	19 [9-26]	22
	1	2	2	3	8 [3-14]	7
	0	1	1	0	2 [1-3]	1

Electoral district	Transposed 2021 winner	Latest projection
10001 Avalon		LPC safe
10002 Cape Spear		LPC safe
10003 Central Newfoundland		CPC leaning
10004 Labrador		LPC likely
10005 Long Range Mountains		Toss up LPC/CPC
10006 St. John’s East		LPC safe
10007 Terra Nova—The Peninsulas		LPC leaning
11001 Cardigan		LPC likely
11002 Charlottetown		LPC safe
11003 Egmont		LPC likely
11004 Malpeque		LPC safe
12001 Acadie—Annapolis		LPC leaning
12002 Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish		LPC likely
12003 Central Nova		LPC likely
12004 Cumberland—Colchester		LPC leaning
12005 Dartmouth—Cole Harbour		LPC safe
12006 Halifax		LPC safe
12007 Halifax West		LPC safe
12008 Kings—Hants		LPC safe
12009 Sackville—Bedford—Preston		LPC safe
12010 South Shore—St. Margarets		LPC likely
12011 Sydney—Glace Bay		LPC safe
13001 Acadie—Bathurst		LPC safe
13002 Beauséjour		LPC safe
13003 Fredericton—Oromocto		LPC safe
13004 Fundy Royal		CPC leaning
13005 Madawaska—Restigouche		LPC likely
13006 Miramichi—Grand Lake		LPC leaning
13007 Moncton—Dieppe		LPC safe
13008 Saint John—Kennebecasis		LPC safe
13009 Saint John—St. Croix		CPC leaning
13010 Tobique—Mactaquac		CPC likely
24001 Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou		LPC likely
24002 Abitibi—Témiscamingue		BQ likely
24003 Ahuntsic-Cartierville		LPC safe
24004 Alfred-Pellan		LPC safe
24005 Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation		LPC safe
24006 Beauce		CPC safe
24007 Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon		BQ leaning
24008 Beauport—Limoilou		LPC likely
24009 Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak		BQ likely
24010 Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis		CPC likely
24011 Beloeil—Chambly		BQ leaning
24012 Berthier—Maskinongé		BQ leaning
24013 Bourassa		LPC safe
24014 Brome—Missisquoi		LPC safe
24015 Brossard—Saint-Lambert		LPC safe
24016 Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles		Toss up LPC/CPC
24017 Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville		LPC safe
24018 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord		LPC leaning
24019 Compton—Stanstead		LPC safe
24020 Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata		CPC leaning
24021 Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan		BQ likely
24022 Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle		LPC safe
24023 Drummond		BQ likely
24024 Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj		Toss up LPC/BQ
24025 Gatineau		LPC safe
24026 Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est		LPC safe
24027 Honoré-Mercier		LPC safe
24028 Hull—Aylmer		LPC safe
24029 Joliette—Manawan		BQ likely
24030 Jonquière		BQ likely
24031 La Pointe-de-l’Île		Toss up LPC/BQ
24032 La Prairie—Atateken		LPC likely
24033 Lac-Saint-Jean		BQ likely
24034 Lac-Saint-Louis		LPC safe
24035 LaSalle—Émard—Verdun		LPC safe
24036 Laurentides—Labelle		Toss up LPC/BQ
24037 Laurier—Sainte-Marie		LPC safe
24038 Laval—Les Îles		LPC safe
24039 Les Pays-d’en-Haut		LPC likely
24040 Lévis—Lotbinière		CPC likely
24041 Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne		LPC safe
24042 Longueuil—Saint-Hubert		LPC likely
24043 Louis-Hébert		LPC safe
24044 Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk		CPC leaning
24045 Marc-Aurèle-Fortin		LPC safe
24046 Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière		CPC safe
24047 Mirabel		Toss up LPC/BQ
24048 Mount Royal		LPC likely
24049 Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie		LPC safe
24050 Montcalm		BQ likely
24051 Montmorency—Charlevoix		Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
24052 Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount		LPC safe
24053 Outremont		LPC safe
24054 Papineau		LPC safe
24055 Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères		Toss up LPC/BQ
24056 Pierrefonds—Dollard		LPC safe
24057 Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi		LPC safe
24058 Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier		CPC likely
24059 Québec Centre		LPC safe
24060 Repentigny		LPC leaning
24061 Richmond—Arthabaska		Toss up LPC/CPC
24062 Rimouski—La Matapédia		BQ leaning
24063 Rivière-des-Milles-Îles		LPC safe
24064 Rivière-du-Nord		BQ leaning
24065 Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie		NDP likely
24066 Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton		BQ leaning
24067 Saint-Jean		BQ leaning
24068 Saint-Laurent		LPC safe
24069 Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel		LPC safe
24070 Saint-Maurice—Champlain		LPC safe
24071 Shefford		LPC leaning
24072 Sherbrooke		LPC safe
24073 Terrebonne		LPC leaning
24074 Thérèse-De Blainville		LPC safe
24075 Trois-Rivières		LPC safe
24076 Vaudreuil		LPC safe
24077 Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs		LPC safe
24078 Vimy		LPC safe
35001 Ajax		LPC safe
35002 Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke		CPC likely
35003 Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill		CPC leaning
35004 Barrie South—Innisfil		CPC likely
35005 Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte		Toss up LPC/CPC
35006 Bay of Quinte		LPC likely
35007 Beaches—East York		LPC safe
35008 Bowmanville—Oshawa North		Toss up LPC/CPC
35009 Brampton Centre		LPC leaning
35010 Brampton—Chinguacousy Park		LPC leaning
35011 Brampton East		LPC leaning
35012 Brampton North—Caledon		LPC leaning
35013 Brampton South		LPC leaning
35014 Brampton West		Toss up LPC/CPC
35015 Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations		CPC leaning
35016 Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound		CPC likely
35017 Burlington		LPC likely
35018 Burlington North—Milton West		LPC likely
35019 Cambridge		Toss up LPC/CPC
35020 Carleton		LPC likely
35021 Chatham-Kent—Leamington		CPC likely
35022 Davenport		LPC safe
35023 Don Valley North		LPC likely
35024 Don Valley West		LPC safe
35025 Dufferin—Caledon		CPC safe
35026 Eglinton—Lawrence		LPC leaning
35027 Elgin—St. Thomas—London South		Toss up LPC/CPC
35028 Essex		CPC likely
35029 Etobicoke Centre		LPC likely
35030 Etobicoke—Lakeshore		LPC safe
35031 Etobicoke North		LPC likely
35032 Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North		CPC leaning
35033 Guelph		LPC safe
35034 Haldimand—Norfolk		CPC likely
35035 Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes		CPC likely
35036 Hamilton Centre		Toss up LPC/NDP
35037 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek		Toss up LPC/CPC
35038 Hamilton Mountain		LPC leaning
35039 Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas		LPC safe
35040 Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga		CPC likely
35041 Humber River—Black Creek		LPC safe
35042 Huron—Bruce		CPC leaning
35043 Kanata		LPC safe
35044 Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk		CPC leaning
35045 Kenora—Kiiwetinoong		CPC leaning
35046 Kingston and the Islands		LPC safe
35047 King—Vaughan		CPC safe
35048 Kitchener Centre		GPC leaning
35049 Kitchener—Conestoga		LPC leaning
35050 Kitchener South—Hespeler		Toss up LPC/CPC
35051 Lanark—Frontenac		Toss up LPC/CPC
35052 Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes		Toss up LPC/CPC
35053 London Centre		LPC safe
35054 London—Fanshawe		CPC leaning
35055 London West		LPC safe
35056 Markham—Stouffville		LPC likely
35057 Markham—Thornhill		LPC likely
35058 Markham—Unionville		Toss up LPC/CPC
35059 Middlesex—London		CPC leaning
35060 Milton East—Halton Hills South		LPC leaning
35061 Mississauga Centre		LPC likely
35062 Mississauga East—Cooksville		LPC likely
35063 Mississauga—Erin Mills		LPC likely
35064 Mississauga—Lakeshore		LPC likely
35065 Mississauga—Malton		LPC likely
35066 Mississauga—Streetsville		LPC likely
35067 Nepean		LPC safe
35068 Newmarket—Aurora		Toss up LPC/CPC
35069 New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury		CPC likely
35070 Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake		Toss up LPC/CPC
35071 Niagara South		Toss up LPC/CPC
35072 Niagara West		CPC leaning
35073 Nipissing—Timiskaming		LPC leaning
35074 Northumberland—Clarke		Toss up LPC/CPC
35075 Oakville East		LPC likely
35076 Oakville West		LPC likely
35077 Orléans		LPC safe
35078 Oshawa		Toss up LPC/CPC
35079 Ottawa Centre		LPC safe
35080 Ottawa South		LPC safe
35081 Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester		LPC safe
35082 Ottawa West—Nepean		LPC safe
35083 Oxford		CPC likely
35084 Parry Sound—Muskoka		CPC leaning
35085 Perth—Wellington		CPC leaning
35086 Peterborough		LPC likely
35087 Pickering—Brooklin		LPC likely
35088 Prescott—Russell—Cumberland		LPC likely
35089 Richmond Hill South		Toss up LPC/CPC
35090 Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong		CPC likely
35091 Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma		LPC leaning
35092 Scarborough—Agincourt		LPC likely
35093 Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East		LPC safe
35094 Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park		LPC safe
35095 Scarborough North		LPC safe
35096 Scarborough Southwest		LPC safe
35097 Scarborough—Woburn		LPC safe
35098 Simcoe—Grey		CPC leaning
35099 Simcoe North		Toss up LPC/CPC
35100 Spadina—Harbourfront		LPC safe
35101 St. Catharines		LPC likely
35102 Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry		CPC likely
35103 Sudbury		LPC likely
35104 Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt		Toss up LPC/CPC
35105 Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park		LPC safe
35106 Thornhill		CPC safe
35107 Thunder Bay—Rainy River		LPC leaning
35108 Thunder Bay—Superior North		LPC safe
35109 Toronto Centre		LPC safe
35110 Toronto—Danforth		LPC safe
35111 Toronto—St. Paul’s		LPC safe
35112 University—Rosedale		LPC safe
35113 Vaughan—Woodbridge		CPC likely
35114 Waterloo		LPC safe
35115 Wellington—Halton Hills North		Toss up LPC/CPC
35116 Whitby		LPC likely
35117 Willowdale		LPC likely
35118 Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore		LPC leaning
35119 Windsor West		Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35120 York Centre		CPC leaning
35121 York—Durham		CPC likely
35122 York South—Weston—Etobicoke		LPC likely
46001 Brandon—Souris		CPC safe
46002 Churchill—Keewatinook Aski		LPC likely
46003 Elmwood—Transcona		Toss up CPC/NDP
46004 Kildonan—St. Paul		LPC leaning
46005 Portage—Lisgar		CPC safe
46006 Provencher		CPC safe
46007 Riding Mountain		CPC safe
46008 St. Boniface—St. Vital		LPC safe
46009 Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman		CPC safe
46010 Winnipeg Centre		NDP leaning
46011 Winnipeg North		LPC safe
46012 Winnipeg South		LPC safe
46013 Winnipeg South Centre		LPC safe
46014 Winnipeg West		LPC likely
47001 Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake		CPC safe
47002 Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek		CPC safe
47003 Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River		LPC safe
47004 Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan		CPC safe
47005 Prince Albert		CPC safe
47006 Regina—Lewvan		Toss up LPC/CPC
47007 Regina—Qu’Appelle		CPC safe
47008 Regina—Wascana		Toss up LPC/CPC
47009 Saskatoon South		Toss up LPC/CPC
47010 Saskatoon—University		Toss up LPC/CPC
47011 Saskatoon West		CPC likely
47012 Souris—Moose Mountain		CPC safe
47013 Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley		CPC safe
47014 Yorkton—Melville		CPC safe
48001 Airdrie—Cochrane		CPC safe
48002 Battle River—Crowfoot		CPC safe
48003 Bow River		CPC safe
48004 Calgary Centre		Toss up LPC/CPC
48005 Calgary Confederation		LPC leaning
48006 Calgary Crowfoot		CPC likely
48007 Calgary East		CPC likely
48008 Calgary Heritage		CPC likely
48009 Calgary McKnight		Toss up LPC/CPC
48010 Calgary Midnapore		CPC safe
48011 Calgary Nose Hill		CPC likely
48012 Calgary Shepard		CPC safe
48013 Calgary Signal Hill		CPC likely
48014 Calgary Skyview		CPC leaning
48015 Edmonton Centre		LPC likely
48016 Edmonton Gateway		CPC leaning
48017 Edmonton Griesbach		Toss up CPC/NDP
48018 Edmonton Manning		CPC leaning
48019 Edmonton Northwest		CPC leaning
48020 Edmonton Riverbend		Toss up LPC/CPC
48021 Edmonton Southeast		CPC leaning
48022 Edmonton Strathcona		NDP safe
48023 Edmonton West		Toss up LPC/CPC
48024 Foothills		CPC safe
48025 Fort McMurray—Cold Lake		CPC safe
48026 Grande Prairie		CPC safe
48027 Lakeland		CPC safe
48028 Leduc—Wetaskiwin		CPC safe
48029 Lethbridge		CPC likely
48030 Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner		CPC safe
48031 Parkland		CPC safe
48032 Peace River—Westlock		CPC safe
48033 Ponoka—Didsbury		CPC safe
48034 Red Deer		CPC safe
48035 Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan		CPC safe
48036 St. Albert—Sturgeon River		CPC safe
48037 Yellowhead		CPC safe
59001 Abbotsford—South Langley		CPC leaning
59002 Burnaby Central		LPC leaning
59003 Burnaby North—Seymour		LPC safe
59004 Cariboo—Prince George		CPC safe
59005 Chilliwack—Hope		CPC likely
59006 Cloverdale—Langley City		Toss up LPC/CPC
59007 Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies		CPC safe
59008 Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam		LPC leaning
59009 Courtenay—Alberni		NDP leaning
59010 Cowichan—Malahat—Langford		Toss up CPC/NDP
59011 Delta		LPC likely
59012 Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke		LPC safe
59013 Fleetwood—Port Kells		LPC leaning
59014 Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies		CPC likely
59015 Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola		CPC likely
59016 Kelowna		LPC leaning
59017 Langley Township—Fraser Heights		CPC leaning
59018 Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford		CPC likely
59019 Nanaimo—Ladysmith		CPC leaning
59020 New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville		Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
59021 North Island—Powell River		CPC leaning
59022 North Vancouver—Capilano		LPC safe
59023 Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna		CPC leaning
59024 Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge		Toss up LPC/CPC
59025 Port Moody—Coquitlam		LPC leaning
59026 Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies		CPC safe
59027 Richmond Centre—Marpole		Toss up LPC/CPC
59028 Richmond East—Steveston		LPC leaning
59029 Saanich—Gulf Islands		GPC likely
59030 Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay		CPC leaning
59031 Skeena—Bulkley Valley		CPC leaning
59032 South Surrey—White Rock		LPC leaning
59033 Surrey Centre		LPC leaning
59034 Surrey Newton		LPC leaning
59035 Vancouver Centre		LPC safe
59036 Vancouver East		NDP likely
59037 Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby		LPC likely
59038 Vancouver Granville		LPC safe
59039 Vancouver Kingsway		Toss up LPC/NDP
59040 Vancouver Quadra		LPC safe
59041 Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee		CPC leaning
59042 Victoria		LPC safe
59043 West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country		LPC safe
60001 Yukon		LPC likely
61001 Northwest Territories		LPC likely
62001 Nunavut		Toss up LPC/NDP