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Canada


Whitby (federal)


MP: Ryan Turnbull (LPC)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

Toss up LPC/CPC
Whitby 40% ± 7%▼ 39% ± 7%▲ 14% ± 5% 4% ± 3% 3% ± 2% LPC 2021 43.96% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Whitby 63%▼ 37%▲ <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Whitby

LPC 39% ± 7% CPC 40% ± 7% NDP 14% ± 5% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Whitby 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Whitby

LPC 37% CPC 63% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Whitby



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 45.0% 43.7% 43.96% 39% ± 7% CPC 42.1% 35.5% 35.83% 40% ± 7% NDP 10.3% 14.1% 14.21% 14% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.2% 4.4% 3% ± 2% GPC 2.2% 5.4% 1.6% 4% ± 3%