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Waterloo



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Waterloo


Liberal Bardish Chagger*
Conservative Waseem Botros
NDP Heline Chow
Green Simon Guthrie
PPC Douglas Ross
Rhinoceros Santa Claus Chatham
Independent Jamie Hari
Independent Val Neekman
Independent Hans Roach

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Waterloo 58% ± 8% LPC 28% ± 7%▼ CPC 8% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 2% GPC LPC 2021 45.5% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Waterloo >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Waterloo

LPC 58% ± 8% CPC 28% ± 7% NDP 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Waterloo 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 45% CPC 33% NDP 14% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 47% CPC 32% NDP 12% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 50% CPC 31% NDP 11% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 11% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 11% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 11% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 11% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 11% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 53% CPC 30% NDP 10% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 53% CPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 54% CPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 8% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 8% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 57% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 58% CPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 58% CPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 58% CPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 59% CPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 59% CPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 58% CPC 30% NDP 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 58% CPC 30% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 59% CPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 58% CPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 57% CPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 58% CPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 58% CPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 58% CPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Waterloo

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Waterloo



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 49.2% 45.5% 58% ± 8% CPC 24.1% 27.4% 28% ± 7% NDP 15.3% 19.1% 8% ± 4% GPC 9.7% 3.4% 3% ± 2% PPC 1.7% 4.6% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.