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Canada

Waterloo



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
Waterloo 36% ± 7% CPC 35% ± 7%▲ LPC 20% ± 5%▲ NDP 7% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 45.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Waterloo 56%▼ CPC 44%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Waterloo

LPC 35% ± 7% CPC 36% ± 7% NDP 20% ± 5% GPC 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Waterloo 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 36% CPC 36% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 36% CPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 36% CPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 7% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 36% CPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 7% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 35% CPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 6% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 35% CPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 35% LPC 34% NDP 21% GPC 6% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 35% LPC 34% NDP 21% GPC 6% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 35% CPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 36% CPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 36% CPC 35% NDP 19% GPC 7% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 36% CPC 35% NDP 19% GPC 7% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 37% LPC 35% NDP 18% GPC 7% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 37% LPC 34% NDP 18% GPC 7% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 18% GPC 7% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 38% LPC 33% NDP 19% GPC 7% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 37% LPC 33% NDP 19% GPC 7% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 37% LPC 34% NDP 19% GPC 7% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 37% LPC 34% NDP 19% GPC 7% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 36% LPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 7% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 36% LPC 34% NDP 19% GPC 7% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 7% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | Waterloo

LPC 44% CPC 56% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | Waterloo



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 49.2% 45.5% 35% ± 7% CPC 24.1% 27.4% 36% ± 7% NDP 15.3% 19.1% 20% ± 5% PPC 1.7% 4.6% 2% ± 3% GPC 9.7% 3.4% 7% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.