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Canada

Dartmouth—Cole Harbour



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
LPC leaning
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour 35% ± 7% LPC 30% ± 7% NDP 26% ± 6% CPC 4% ± 5%▼ PPC 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 51.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Dartmouth—Cole Harbour 77%▼ LPC 21%▲ NDP 2%▲ CPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour

LPC 35% ± 7% CPC 26% ± 6% NDP 30% ± 7% GPC 4% ± 3% PPC 4% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 37% NDP 28% CPC 28% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 37% CPC 28% NDP 27% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 37% NDP 28% CPC 27% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 37% NDP 28% CPC 27% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 27% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 38% NDP 29% CPC 26% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 38% NDP 30% CPC 25% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 24% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 39% NDP 30% CPC 23% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 40% NDP 30% CPC 22% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 40% NDP 29% CPC 22% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 40% NDP 29% CPC 22% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 39% NDP 29% CPC 23% PPC 5% GPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 39% NDP 29% CPC 23% PPC 5% GPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 38% NDP 29% CPC 24% PPC 5% GPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 38% NDP 28% CPC 25% PPC 5% GPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 38% NDP 27% CPC 26% PPC 5% GPC 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 38% NDP 27% CPC 26% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 38% CPC 27% NDP 26% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 38% CPC 27% NDP 26% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 37% CPC 27% NDP 27% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 37% CPC 27% NDP 27% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 37% NDP 27% CPC 27% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 37% NDP 28% CPC 27% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 36% NDP 28% CPC 26% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 37% NDP 28% CPC 26% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 38% NDP 28% CPC 26% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 39% NDP 28% CPC 25% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 37% NDP 28% CPC 26% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 26% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 35% NDP 30% CPC 26% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 35% NDP 30% CPC 26% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour

LPC 77% CPC 2% NDP 21% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 95% NDP 3% CPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 93% CPC 4% NDP 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 94% NDP 3% CPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 92% NDP 5% CPC 2% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 94% NDP 4% CPC 1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 95% NDP 4% CPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 93% NDP 7% CPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 90% NDP 10% CPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 95% NDP 5% CPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 97% NDP 3% CPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 98% NDP 2% CPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 98% NDP 2% CPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 97% NDP 3% CPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 96% NDP 4% CPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 96% NDP 4% CPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 96% NDP 4% CPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 98% NDP 2% CPC 1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 97% NDP 2% CPC 1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 97% CPC 2% NDP 1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 97% CPC 2% NDP 1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 95% CPC 3% NDP 2% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 96% CPC 2% NDP 2% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 95% NDP 3% CPC 2% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 95% NDP 4% CPC 2% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 93% NDP 5% CPC 2% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 94% NDP 5% CPC 1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 97% NDP 2% CPC 1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 98% NDP 2% CPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 95% NDP 4% CPC 1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 93% NDP 6% CPC 1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 81% NDP 18% CPC 1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 77% NDP 21% CPC 2% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 44.5% 51.5% 35% ± 7% NDP 27.1% 33.0% 30% ± 7% PPC 1.7% 9.7% 4% ± 5% GPC 10.0% 2.9% 4% ± 3% CPC 16.8% 2.9% 26% ± 6%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.