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Canada

Richmond East—Steveston



Latest projection: March 9, 2025
LPC leaning
Richmond East—Steveston 44% ± 9%▲ LPC 39% ± 8%▼ CPC 12% ± 5%▼ NDP LPC 2021 41.9% 338Canada vote projection | March 9, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Richmond East—Steveston 74%▲ LPC 26%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 9, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Richmond East—Steveston

LPC 44% ± 9% CPC 39% ± 8% NDP 12% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Richmond East—Steveston 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 9, 2025 2024-10-13 CPC 48% LPC 30% NDP 16% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 47% LPC 31% NDP 17% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 47% LPC 31% NDP 17% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 47% LPC 31% NDP 17% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 48% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 48% LPC 32% NDP 15% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 49% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 49% LPC 30% NDP 16% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 50% LPC 29% NDP 17% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 50% LPC 29% NDP 17% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 50% LPC 27% NDP 19% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 50% LPC 27% NDP 19% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 50% LPC 27% NDP 18% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 51% LPC 28% NDP 17% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 51% LPC 29% NDP 16% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 51% LPC 29% NDP 16% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 50% LPC 31% NDP 15% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 48% LPC 34% NDP 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 45% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 13% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 43% CPC 40% NDP 13% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 44% CPC 39% NDP 12% 2025-03-09 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ New LPC leader

Odds of winning | Richmond East—Steveston

LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 9, 2025 2024-10-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ New LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Richmond East—Steveston



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 34.6% 41.9% 44% ± 9% CPC 42.1% 34.0% 39% ± 8% NDP 15.1% 19.4% 12% ± 5% GPC 7.0% 2.3% 2% ± 2% PPC 0.1% 2.4% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.