Welcome to 338Canada !
The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls,
electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at
Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.
Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for
L'actualité magazine and a contributor to
Politico Canada , as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts
The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.
Please subscribe to the
338Canada newsletter here , and enjoy the website!
338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection
Latest update: November 6, 2024
District of Columbia, Safe Harris
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
DC 3
Vermont, Safe Harris
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
VT 3
Massachusetts, Safe Harris
11 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MA 11
Maryland, Safe Harris
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MD 10
Washington, Safe Harris
12 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
WA 12
California, Safe Harris
54 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
CA 54
Hawaii, Safe Harris
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
HI 4
New York, Safe Harris
28 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NY 28
Colorado, Likely Harris
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
CO 10
Oregon, Likely Harris
8 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
OR 8
Connecticut, Likely Harris
7 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
CT 7
Delaware, Likely Harris
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
DE 3
Rhode Island, Likely Harris
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
RI 4
Maine, Likely Harris
4 Electoral Votes
[EV given according to districts]
ME* 4
Virginia, Leaning Harris
13 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
VA 13
New Jersey, Leaning Harris
14 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NJ 14
Illinois, Leaning Harris
19 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
IL 19
New Mexico, Leaning Harris
5 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NM 5
Minnesota, Leaning Harris
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MN 10
New Hampshire, Toss up
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NH 4
Wisconsin, Toss up
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
WI 10
Michigan, Toss up
15 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MI 15
Georgia, Leaning Trump
16 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
GA 16
Pennsylvania, Leaning Trump
19 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
PA 19
North Carolina, Leaning Trump
16 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NC 16
Nevada, Leaning Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NV 6
Arizona, Leaning Trump
11 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
AZ 11
Alaska, Likely Trump
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
AK 3
Iowa, Likely Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
IA 6
Ohio, Likely Trump
17 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
OH 17
Kansas, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
KS 6
Montana, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MT 4
Missouri, Safe Trump
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MO 10
South Carolina, Safe Trump
9 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
SC 9
Nebraska, Safe Trump
5 Electoral Votes
[EV given according to districts]
NE* 5
Florida, Safe Trump
30 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
FL 30
Texas, Safe Trump
40 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
TX 40
Indiana, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
IN 11
Louisiana, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
LA 8
Utah, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
UT 6
Mississippi, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MS 6
Tennessee, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
TN 11
Arkansas, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
AR 6
Alabama, Safe Trump
9 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
AL 9
Kentucky, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
KY 8
South Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
SD 3
Oklahoma, Safe Trump
7 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
OK 7
Idaho, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
ID 4
North Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
ND 3
West Virginia, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
WV 4
Wyoming, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
WY 3
District of Columbia
▲312 Trump✔
Harris 226▼
[312-312]
[226-226]
270 EV to win
Harris <1%▼
Tie 1%
▲>99% Trump
Odds of winning Electoral College
338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection | November 6, 2024
Trump >99%
Tie 1%
Odds of winning Electoral College
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2024-07-01
2024-08-01
2024-09-01
2024-10-01
2024-11-01
Election 2024
Biden drops out
Odds of winning Electoral College
November 6, 2024
2024-06-11
Trump 62%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-11
2024-06-13
Trump 62%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-13
2024-06-15
Trump 62%
Harris 38%
Tie 1%
2024-06-15
2024-06-17
Trump 62%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-17
2024-06-19
Trump 58%
Harris 41%
Tie 1%
2024-06-19
2024-06-21
Trump 59%
Harris 41%
Tie 1%
2024-06-21
2024-06-23
Trump 62%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-23
2024-06-25
Trump 63%
Harris 36%
Tie 1%
2024-06-25
2024-06-27
Trump 63%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-27
2024-06-29
Trump 63%
Harris 37%
Tie <1%
2024-06-29
2024-07-01
Trump 64%
Harris 36%
Tie 1%
2024-07-01
2024-07-03
Trump 65%
Harris 35%
Tie 1%
2024-07-03
2024-07-05
Trump 68%
Harris 32%
Tie <1%
2024-07-05
2024-07-07
Trump 69%
Harris 31%
Tie <1%
2024-07-07
2024-07-09
Trump 69%
Harris 30%
Tie <1%
2024-07-09
2024-07-11
Trump 71%
Harris 28%
Tie <1%
2024-07-11
2024-07-13
Trump 74%
Harris 25%
Tie <1%
2024-07-13
2024-07-15
Trump 73%
Harris 26%
Tie 1%
2024-07-15
2024-07-17
Trump 73%
Harris 26%
Tie 1%
2024-07-17
2024-07-19
Trump 71%
Harris 28%
Tie 1%
2024-07-19
2024-07-23
Trump 69%
Harris 31%
Tie 1%
2024-07-23
2024-07-25
Trump 66%
Harris 34%
Tie 1%
2024-07-25
2024-07-27
Trump 63%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-07-27
2024-07-29
Trump 63%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-07-29
2024-07-31
Trump 58%
Harris 41%
Tie 1%
2024-07-31
2024-08-02
Trump 56%
Harris 44%
Tie 1%
2024-08-02
2024-08-04
Trump 52%
Harris 47%
Tie 1%
2024-08-04
2024-08-06
Harris 52%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-08-06
2024-08-08
Harris 51%
Trump 49%
Tie 1%
2024-08-08
2024-08-10
Harris 52%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-08-10
2024-08-12
Harris 55%
Trump 44%
Tie 1%
2024-08-12
2024-08-14
Harris 54%
Trump 45%
Tie 1%
2024-08-14
2024-08-16
Harris 53%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-08-16
2024-08-18
Harris 55%
Trump 44%
Tie 1%
2024-08-18
2024-08-20
Harris 55%
Trump 44%
Tie 1%
2024-08-20
2024-08-22
Harris 55%
Trump 44%
Tie 1%
2024-08-22
2024-08-24
Harris 54%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-08-24
2024-08-26
Harris 53%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-08-26
2024-08-28
Harris 50%
Trump 49%
Tie 1%
2024-08-28
2024-08-30
Harris 53%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-08-30
2024-09-01
Harris 55%
Trump 44%
Tie 1%
2024-09-01
2024-09-03
Harris 55%
Trump 44%
Tie 1%
2024-09-03
2024-09-05
Harris 53%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-09-05
2024-09-09
Harris 53%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-09-09
2024-09-11
Harris 53%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-09-11
2024-09-13
Harris 54%
Trump 45%
Tie 1%
2024-09-13
2024-09-15
Harris 54%
Trump 45%
Tie 1%
2024-09-15
2024-09-17
Harris 54%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-09-17
2024-09-19
Harris 54%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-09-19
2024-09-23
Harris 57%
Trump 43%
Tie 1%
2024-09-23
2024-09-25
Harris 56%
Trump 43%
Tie 1%
2024-09-25
2024-09-27
Harris 58%
Trump 42%
Tie 1%
2024-09-27
2024-09-29
Harris 58%
Trump 41%
Tie <1%
2024-09-29
2024-10-03
Harris 56%
Trump 43%
Tie 1%
2024-10-03
2024-10-05
Harris 54%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-10-05
2024-10-08
Harris 52%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-10-08
2024-10-10
Harris 50%
Trump 49%
Tie 1%
2024-10-10
2024-10-14
Trump 51%
Harris 49%
Tie 1%
2024-10-14
2024-10-17
Harris 52%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-10-17
2024-10-22
Harris 53%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-10-22
2024-10-26
Harris 54%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-10-26
2024-10-29
Harris 52%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-10-29
2024-10-30
Harris 51%
Trump 48%
Tie 1%
2024-10-30
2024-11-01
Harris 50%
Trump 49%
Tie 1%
2024-11-01
2024-11-02
Trump 50%
Harris 49%
Tie 1%
2024-11-02
2024-11-03
Harris 57%
Trump 43%
Tie 1%
2024-11-03
2024-11-04
Harris 54%
Trump 45%
Tie 1%
2024-11-04
2024-11-05
Harris 53%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-11-05
2024-11-06
Trump >99%
Tie 1%
Harris <1%
2024-11-06
[▲▼: movement since previous update]
[Probability density chart below is a work in progress... More to come soon.]
340
320
300
280
Electoral Votes
280
300
320
340
360+
0%
270-299
44%
330-359
0%
300-329
43%
300-329
0%
330-359
5%
270-299
7%
360+
0%
Trump wins 100%
Harris wins 0%
November 6, 2024
District of Columbia, Safe Harris
3 Electoral Votes
DC
DC
DC
Vermont, Safe Harris
3 Electoral Votes
VT
VT
VT
Massachusetts, Safe Harris
11 Electoral Votes
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
Maryland, Safe Harris
10 Electoral Votes
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
Washington, Safe Harris
12 Electoral Votes
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
California, Safe Harris
54 Electoral Votes
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
Hawaii, Safe Harris
4 Electoral Votes
HI
HI
HI
HI
Maine-1, Safe Harris
1 Electoral Vote
ME1
New York, Safe Harris
28 Electoral Votes
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
Colorado, Likely Harris
10 Electoral Votes
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
Oregon, Likely Harris
8 Electoral Votes
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
Connecticut, Likely Harris
7 Electoral Votes
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
Delaware, Likely Harris
3 Electoral Votes
DE
DE
DE
Rhode Island, Likely Harris
4 Electoral Votes
RI
RI
RI
RI
Maine, Likely Harris
2 Electoral Votes
(*Plus one EV per congressional district)
ME
ME
Virginia, Leaning Harris
13 Electoral Votes
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
New Jersey, Leaning Harris
14 Electoral Votes
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
Illinois, Leaning Harris
19 Electoral Votes
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
New Mexico, Leaning Harris
5 Electoral Votes
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
Minnesota, Leaning Harris
10 Electoral Votes
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
Nebraska-2, Leaning Harris
1 Electoral Vote
NE2
New Hampshire, Toss up
4 Electoral Votes
NH
NH
NH
NH
Wisconsin, Toss up
10 Electoral Votes
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
Michigan, Toss up
15 Electoral Votes
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
Georgia, Leaning Trump
16 Electoral Votes
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
Pennsylvania, Leaning Trump
19 Electoral Votes
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
North Carolina, Leaning Trump
16 Electoral Votes
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
Nevada, Leaning Trump
6 Electoral Votes
NV
NV
NV
NV
NV
NV
Arizona, Leaning Trump
11 Electoral Votes
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
Maine-2, Leaning Trump
1 Electoral Vote
ME2
Alaska, Likely Trump
3 Electoral Votes
AK
AK
AK
Nebraska-1, Likely Trump
1 Electoral Vote
NE1
Iowa, Likely Trump
6 Electoral Votes
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
Ohio, Likely Trump
17 Electoral Votes
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
Kansas, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
Montana, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
MT
MT
MT
MT
Missouri, Safe Trump
10 Electoral Votes
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
South Carolina, Safe Trump
9 Electoral Votes
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
Nebraska, Safe Trump
2 Electoral Votes
(*Plus one EV per congressional district)
NE
NE
Florida, Safe Trump
30 Electoral Votes
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
Texas, Safe Trump
40 Electoral Votes
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
Indiana, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
Louisiana, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
Utah, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
UT
UT
UT
UT
UT
UT
Mississippi, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
Tennessee, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
Arkansas, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
AR
AR
AR
AR
AR
AR
Alabama, Safe Trump
9 Electoral Votes
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
Kentucky, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
South Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
SD
SD
SD
Oklahoma, Safe Trump
7 Electoral Votes
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
Idaho, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
ID
ID
ID
ID
North Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
ND
ND
ND
West Virginia, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
WV
WV
WV
WV
Wyoming, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
WY
WY
WY
Nebraska-3, Safe Trump
1 Electoral Vote
NE3
DC
DC
DC
VT
VT
VT
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
HI
HI
HI
HI
ME1
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
DE
DE
DE
RI
RI
RI
RI
ME
ME
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
NE2
NH
NH
NH
NH
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NV
NV
NV
NV
NV
NV
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
ME2
AK
AK
AK
NE1
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
MT
MT
MT
MT
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
NE
NE
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
UT
UT
UT
UT
UT
UT
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
AR
AR
AR
AR
AR
AR
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
SD
SD
SD
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
ID
ID
ID
ID
ND
ND
ND
WV
WV
WV
WV
WY
WY
WY
NE3
270 EV to win
338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection
Latest update: November 6, 2024
▲312 Trump✔
[312-312]
Harris 226▼
[226-226]
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
District de Columbia, Harris solide
3 Grands Électeurs
DC+84
Vermont, Harris solide
3 Grands Électeurs
VT+32
Hawaii, Harris solide
4 Grands Électeurs
HI+26
Massachusetts, Harris solide
11 Grands Électeurs
MA+26
Maine-1, Harris solide
1 Grand Électeur
ME1+26
Maryland, Harris solide
10 Grands Électeurs
MD+23
Washington, Harris solide
12 Grands Électeurs
WA+20
Californie, Harris solide
54 Grands Électeurs
CA+18
Delaware, Harris probable
3 Grands Électeurs
DE+15
Rhode Island, Harris probable
4 Grands Électeurs
RI+13
Oregon, Harris probable
8 Grands Électeurs
OR+12
New York, Harris solide
28 Grands Électeurs
NY+12
Colorado, Harris probable
10 Grands Électeurs
CO+11
Connecticut, Harris probable
7 Grands Électeurs
CT+11
Maine, Harris probable
2 Grands Électeurs
(*plus un GÉ par district)
ME+9
Nouveau-Mexique, Harris enclin
5 Grands Électeurs
NM+6
Virginie, Harris enclin
13 Grands Électeurs
VA+5
Nebraska-2, Harris enclin
1 Grand Électeur
NE2+5
New Jersey, Harris enclin
14 Grands Électeurs
NJ+5
Minnesota, Harris enclin
10 Grands Électeurs
MN+4
Illinois, Harris enclin
19 Grands Électeurs
IL+4
New Hampshire, Pivot
4 Grands Électeurs
NH+3
Wisconsin, Pivot
10 Grands Électeurs
WI+0.8
Michigan, Pivot
15 Grands Électeurs
MI+2
Tipping point: PA
Pennsylvanie, Trump enclin
19 Grands Électeurs
PA+2
Georgie, Trump enclin
16 Grands Électeurs
GA+2
Caroline du Nord, Trump enclin
16 Grands Électeurs
NC+3
Nevada, Trump enclin
6 Grands Électeurs
NV+5
Arizona, Trump enclin
11 Grands Électeurs
AZ+5
Maine-2, Trump enclin
1 Grand Électeur
ME2+9
Ohio, Trump probable
17 Grands Électeurs
OH+11
Floride, Trump solide
30 Grands Électeurs
FL+13
Iowa, Trump probable
6 Grands Électeurs
IA+13
Texas, Trump solide
40 Grands Électeurs
TX+14
Alaska, Trump probable
3 Grands Électeurs
AK+15
Missouri, Trump solide
10 Grands Électeurs
MO+16
Kansas, Trump solide
6 Grands Électeurs
KS+17
Caroline du Sud, Trump solide
9 Grands Électeurs
SC+17
Nebraska-1, Trump probable
1 Grand Électeur
NE1+17
Indiana, Trump solide
11 Grands Électeurs
IN+20
Montana, Trump solide
4 Grands Électeurs
MT+21
Louisiane, Trump solide
8 Grands Électeurs
LA+22
Nebraska, Trump solide
2 Grands Électeurs
(*plus un GÉ par district)
NE+22
Utah, Trump solide
6 Grands Électeurs
UT+24
Mississippi, Trump solide
6 Grands Électeurs
MS+25
Tennessee, Trump solide
11 Grands Électeurs
TN+30
Arkansas, Trump solide
6 Grands Électeurs
AR+30
Alabama, Trump solide
9 Grands Électeurs
AL+30
Kentucky, Trump solide
8 Grands Électeurs
KY+31
Dakota du Sud, Trump solide
3 Grands Électeurs
SD+33
Oklahoma, Trump solide
7 Grands Électeurs
OK+34
Idaho, Trump solide
4 Grands Électeurs
ID+36
Dakota du Nord, Trump solide
3 Grands Électeurs
ND+37
Virginie Occidentale, Trump solide
4 Grands Électeurs
WV+42
Wyoming, Trump solide
3 Grands Électeurs
WY+46
Nebraska-3, Trump solide
1 Grand Électeur
NE3+55
The Tipping Point
District of Columbia, Safe Harris
3 Electoral Votes
DC+84
Vermont, Safe Harris
3 Electoral Votes
VT+32
Hawaii, Safe Harris
4 Electoral Votes
HI+26
Massachusetts, Safe Harris
11 Electoral Votes
MA+26
Maine-1, Safe Harris
1 Electoral Vote
ME1+26
Maryland, Safe Harris
10 Electoral Votes
MD+23
Washington, Safe Harris
12 Electoral Votes
WA+20
California, Safe Harris
54 Electoral Votes
CA+18
Delaware, Likely Harris
3 Electoral Votes
DE+15
Rhode Island, Likely Harris
4 Electoral Votes
RI+13
Oregon, Likely Harris
8 Electoral Votes
OR+12
New York, Safe Harris
28 Electoral Votes
NY+12
Colorado, Likely Harris
10 Electoral Votes
CO+11
Connecticut, Likely Harris
7 Electoral Votes
CT+11
Maine, Likely Harris
2 Electoral Votes
(*Plus one EV per congressional district)
ME+9
New Mexico, Leaning Harris
5 Electoral Votes
NM+6
Virginia, Leaning Harris
13 Electoral Votes
VA+5
Nebraska-2, Leaning Harris
1 Electoral Vote
NE2+5
New Jersey, Leaning Harris
14 Electoral Votes
NJ+5
Minnesota, Leaning Harris
10 Electoral Votes
MN+4
Illinois, Leaning Harris
19 Electoral Votes
IL+4
New Hampshire, Toss up
4 Electoral Votes
NH+3
Wisconsin, Toss up
10 Electoral Votes
WI+0.8
Michigan, Toss up
15 Electoral Votes
MI+2
Tipping point: PA
Pennsylvania, Leaning Trump
19 Electoral Votes
PA+2
Georgia, Leaning Trump
16 Electoral Votes
GA+2
North Carolina, Leaning Trump
16 Electoral Votes
NC+3
Nevada, Leaning Trump
6 Electoral Votes
NV+5
Arizona, Leaning Trump
11 Electoral Votes
AZ+5
Maine-2, Leaning Trump
1 Electoral Vote
ME2+9
Ohio, Likely Trump
17 Electoral Votes
OH+11
Florida, Safe Trump
30 Electoral Votes
FL+13
Iowa, Likely Trump
6 Electoral Votes
IA+13
Texas, Safe Trump
40 Electoral Votes
TX+14
Alaska, Likely Trump
3 Electoral Votes
AK+15
Missouri, Safe Trump
10 Electoral Votes
MO+16
Kansas, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
KS+17
South Carolina, Safe Trump
9 Electoral Votes
SC+17
Nebraska-1, Likely Trump
1 Electoral Vote
NE1+17
Indiana, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
IN+20
Montana, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
MT+21
Louisiana, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
LA+22
Nebraska, Safe Trump
2 Electoral Votes
(*Plus one EV per congressional district)
NE+22
Utah, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
UT+24
Mississippi, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
MS+25
Tennessee, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
TN+30
Arkansas, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
AR+30
Alabama, Safe Trump
9 Electoral Votes
AL+30
Kentucky, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
KY+31
South Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
SD+33
Oklahoma, Safe Trump
7 Electoral Votes
OK+34
Idaho, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
ID+36
North Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
ND+37
West Virginia, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
WV+42
Wyoming, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
WY+46
Nebraska-3, Safe Trump
1 Electoral Vote
NE3+55
The Tipping Point
November 6, 2024
Electoral College Projection
Trump [312-312]
Harris [226-226]
Seat projection
330
300
270
240
210
180
150
120
90
60
30
2024-07-01
2024-08-01
2024-09-01
2024-10-01
2024-11-01
Election 2024
Biden drops out
Trump
Harris
270 EV to win
November 6, 2024
2024-06-11
Trump 278
Harris 260
2024-06-11
2024-06-13
Trump 297
Harris 241
2024-06-13
2024-06-15
Trump 287
Harris 251
2024-06-15
2024-06-17
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-06-17
2024-06-19
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-06-19
2024-06-21
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-06-21
2024-06-23
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-06-23
2024-06-25
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-06-25
2024-06-27
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-06-27
2024-06-29
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-06-29
2024-07-01
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-01
2024-07-03
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-03
2024-07-05
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-05
2024-07-07
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-07
2024-07-09
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-09
2024-07-11
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-11
2024-07-13
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-13
2024-07-15
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-15
2024-07-17
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-17
2024-07-19
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-19
2024-07-23
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-23
2024-07-25
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-07-25
2024-07-27
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-07-27
2024-07-29
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-07-29
2024-07-31
Trump 287
Harris 251
2024-07-31
2024-08-02
Trump 287
Harris 251
2024-08-02
2024-08-04
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-08-04
2024-08-06
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-08-06
2024-08-08
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-08-08
2024-08-10
Harris 281
Trump 257
2024-08-10
2024-08-12
Harris 281
Trump 257
2024-08-12
2024-08-14
Harris 281
Trump 257
2024-08-14
2024-08-16
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-08-16
2024-08-18
Harris 281
Trump 257
2024-08-18
2024-08-20
Harris 281
Trump 257
2024-08-20
2024-08-22
Harris 298
Trump 240
2024-08-22
2024-08-24
Harris 298
Trump 240
2024-08-24
2024-08-26
Harris 298
Trump 240
2024-08-26
2024-08-28
Harris 282
Trump 256
2024-08-28
2024-08-30
Harris 277
Trump 261
2024-08-30
2024-09-01
Harris 277
Trump 261
2024-09-01
2024-09-03
Harris 293
Trump 245
2024-09-03
2024-09-05
Harris 271
Trump 267
2024-09-05
2024-09-09
Trump 270
Harris 268
2024-09-09
2024-09-11
Trump 270
Harris 268
2024-09-11
2024-09-13
Harris 287
Trump 251
2024-09-13
2024-09-15
Harris 287
Trump 251
2024-09-15
2024-09-17
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-09-17
2024-09-19
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-09-19
2024-09-23
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-09-23
2024-09-25
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-09-25
2024-09-27
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-09-27
2024-09-29
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-09-29
2024-10-03
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-10-03
2024-10-05
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-10-05
2024-10-08
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-10-08
2024-10-10
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-10-10
2024-10-14
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-10-14
2024-10-17
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-10-17
2024-10-22
Harris 286
Trump 252
2024-10-22
2024-10-26
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-10-26
2024-10-29
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-10-29
2024-10-30
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-10-30
2024-11-01
Trump 287
Harris 251
2024-11-01
2024-11-02
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-11-02
2024-11-03
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-11-03
2024-11-04
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-11-04
2024-11-05
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-11-05
2024-11-06
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-11-06