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The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection


Latest update: November 6, 2024
District of Columbia, Safe Harris 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] DC 3 Vermont, Safe Harris 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] VT 3 Massachusetts, Safe Harris 11 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MA 11 Maryland, Safe Harris 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MD 10 Washington, Safe Harris 12 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] WA 12 California, Safe Harris 54 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] CA 54 Hawaii, Safe Harris 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] HI 4 New York, Safe Harris 28 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NY 28 Colorado, Likely Harris 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] CO 10 Oregon, Likely Harris 8 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] OR 8 Connecticut, Likely Harris 7 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] CT 7 Delaware, Likely Harris 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] DE 3 Rhode Island, Likely Harris 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] RI 4 Maine, Likely Harris 4 Electoral Votes [EV given according to districts] ME* 4 Virginia, Leaning Harris 13 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] VA 13 New Jersey, Leaning Harris 14 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NJ 14 Illinois, Leaning Harris 19 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] IL 19 New Mexico, Leaning Harris 5 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NM 5 Minnesota, Leaning Harris 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MN 10 New Hampshire, Toss up 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NH 4 Wisconsin, Toss up 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] WI 10 Michigan, Toss up 15 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MI 15 Georgia, Leaning Trump 16 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] GA 16 Pennsylvania, Leaning Trump 19 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] PA 19 North Carolina, Leaning Trump 16 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NC 16 Nevada, Leaning Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NV 6 Arizona, Leaning Trump 11 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] AZ 11 Alaska, Likely Trump 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] AK 3 Iowa, Likely Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] IA 6 Ohio, Likely Trump 17 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] OH 17 Kansas, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] KS 6 Montana, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MT 4 Missouri, Safe Trump 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MO 10 South Carolina, Safe Trump 9 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] SC 9 Nebraska, Safe Trump 5 Electoral Votes [EV given according to districts] NE* 5 Florida, Safe Trump 30 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] FL 30 Texas, Safe Trump 40 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] TX 40 Indiana, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] IN 11 Louisiana, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] LA 8 Utah, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] UT 6 Mississippi, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MS 6 Tennessee, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] TN 11 Arkansas, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] AR 6 Alabama, Safe Trump 9 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] AL 9 Kentucky, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] KY 8 South Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] SD 3 Oklahoma, Safe Trump 7 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] OK 7 Idaho, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] ID 4 North Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] ND 3 West Virginia, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] WV 4 Wyoming, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] WY 3 District of Columbia ▲312 Trump✔ Harris 226▼ [312-312] [226-226] 270 EV to win Harris <1%▼ Tie 1% ▲>99% Trump Odds of winning Electoral College 338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection | November 6, 2024 Trump >99% Tie 1% Odds of winning Electoral College 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Biden drops out Odds of winning Electoral College November 6, 2024 2024-06-11 Trump 62% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-11 2024-06-13 Trump 62% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-13 2024-06-15 Trump 62% Harris 38% Tie 1% 2024-06-15 2024-06-17 Trump 62% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-17 2024-06-19 Trump 58% Harris 41% Tie 1% 2024-06-19 2024-06-21 Trump 59% Harris 41% Tie 1% 2024-06-21 2024-06-23 Trump 62% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-25 Trump 63% Harris 36% Tie 1% 2024-06-25 2024-06-27 Trump 63% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-27 2024-06-29 Trump 63% Harris 37% Tie <1% 2024-06-29 2024-07-01 Trump 64% Harris 36% Tie 1% 2024-07-01 2024-07-03 Trump 65% Harris 35% Tie 1% 2024-07-03 2024-07-05 Trump 68% Harris 32% Tie <1% 2024-07-05 2024-07-07 Trump 69% Harris 31% Tie <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-09 Trump 69% Harris 30% Tie <1% 2024-07-09 2024-07-11 Trump 71% Harris 28% Tie <1% 2024-07-11 2024-07-13 Trump 74% Harris 25% Tie <1% 2024-07-13 2024-07-15 Trump 73% Harris 26% Tie 1% 2024-07-15 2024-07-17 Trump 73% Harris 26% Tie 1% 2024-07-17 2024-07-19 Trump 71% Harris 28% Tie 1% 2024-07-19 2024-07-23 Trump 69% Harris 31% Tie 1% 2024-07-23 2024-07-25 Trump 66% Harris 34% Tie 1% 2024-07-25 2024-07-27 Trump 63% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-07-27 2024-07-29 Trump 63% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-07-29 2024-07-31 Trump 58% Harris 41% Tie 1% 2024-07-31 2024-08-02 Trump 56% Harris 44% Tie 1% 2024-08-02 2024-08-04 Trump 52% Harris 47% Tie 1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-06 Harris 52% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-08-06 2024-08-08 Harris 51% Trump 49% Tie 1% 2024-08-08 2024-08-10 Harris 52% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-08-10 2024-08-12 Harris 55% Trump 44% Tie 1% 2024-08-12 2024-08-14 Harris 54% Trump 45% Tie 1% 2024-08-14 2024-08-16 Harris 53% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-08-16 2024-08-18 Harris 55% Trump 44% Tie 1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-20 Harris 55% Trump 44% Tie 1% 2024-08-20 2024-08-22 Harris 55% Trump 44% Tie 1% 2024-08-22 2024-08-24 Harris 54% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-08-24 2024-08-26 Harris 53% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-08-26 2024-08-28 Harris 50% Trump 49% Tie 1% 2024-08-28 2024-08-30 Harris 53% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-08-30 2024-09-01 Harris 55% Trump 44% Tie 1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-03 Harris 55% Trump 44% Tie 1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-05 Harris 53% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-09-05 2024-09-09 Harris 53% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-09-09 2024-09-11 Harris 53% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-09-11 2024-09-13 Harris 54% Trump 45% Tie 1% 2024-09-13 2024-09-15 Harris 54% Trump 45% Tie 1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-17 Harris 54% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-09-17 2024-09-19 Harris 54% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-09-19 2024-09-23 Harris 57% Trump 43% Tie 1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 Harris 56% Trump 43% Tie 1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-27 Harris 58% Trump 42% Tie 1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-29 Harris 58% Trump 41% Tie <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-03 Harris 56% Trump 43% Tie 1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-05 Harris 54% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-08 Harris 52% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-10 Harris 50% Trump 49% Tie 1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-14 Trump 51% Harris 49% Tie 1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-17 Harris 52% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-22 Harris 53% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-10-22 2024-10-26 Harris 54% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-10-26 2024-10-29 Harris 52% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-10-29 2024-10-30 Harris 51% Trump 48% Tie 1% 2024-10-30 2024-11-01 Harris 50% Trump 49% Tie 1% 2024-11-01 2024-11-02 Trump 50% Harris 49% Tie 1% 2024-11-02 2024-11-03 Harris 57% Trump 43% Tie 1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-04 Harris 54% Trump 45% Tie 1% 2024-11-04 2024-11-05 Harris 53% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-11-05 2024-11-06 Trump >99% Tie 1% Harris <1% 2024-11-06 [▲▼: movement since previous update]




[Probability density chart below is a work in progress... More to come soon.] 340 320 300 280 Electoral Votes 280 300 320 340 360+ 0% 270-299 44% 330-359 0% 300-329 43% 300-329 0% 330-359 5% 270-299 7% 360+ 0% Trump wins 100% Harris wins 0% November 6, 2024

District of Columbia, Safe Harris 3 Electoral Votes DC DC DC Vermont, Safe Harris 3 Electoral Votes VT VT VT Massachusetts, Safe Harris 11 Electoral Votes MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA Maryland, Safe Harris 10 Electoral Votes MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD Washington, Safe Harris 12 Electoral Votes WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA California, Safe Harris 54 Electoral Votes CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA Hawaii, Safe Harris 4 Electoral Votes HI HI HI HI Maine-1, Safe Harris 1 Electoral Vote ME1 New York, Safe Harris 28 Electoral Votes NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY Colorado, Likely Harris 10 Electoral Votes CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO Oregon, Likely Harris 8 Electoral Votes OR OR OR OR OR OR OR OR Connecticut, Likely Harris 7 Electoral Votes CT CT CT CT CT CT CT Delaware, Likely Harris 3 Electoral Votes DE DE DE Rhode Island, Likely Harris 4 Electoral Votes RI RI RI RI Maine, Likely Harris 2 Electoral Votes (*Plus one EV per congressional district) ME ME Virginia, Leaning Harris 13 Electoral Votes VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA New Jersey, Leaning Harris 14 Electoral Votes NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ Illinois, Leaning Harris 19 Electoral Votes IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL New Mexico, Leaning Harris 5 Electoral Votes NM NM NM NM NM Minnesota, Leaning Harris 10 Electoral Votes MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN Nebraska-2, Leaning Harris 1 Electoral Vote NE2 New Hampshire, Toss up 4 Electoral Votes NH NH NH NH Wisconsin, Toss up 10 Electoral Votes WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI Michigan, Toss up 15 Electoral Votes MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI Georgia, Leaning Trump 16 Electoral Votes GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA Pennsylvania, Leaning Trump 19 Electoral Votes PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA North Carolina, Leaning Trump 16 Electoral Votes NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Nevada, Leaning Trump 6 Electoral Votes NV NV NV NV NV NV Arizona, Leaning Trump 11 Electoral Votes AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ Maine-2, Leaning Trump 1 Electoral Vote ME2 Alaska, Likely Trump 3 Electoral Votes AK AK AK Nebraska-1, Likely Trump 1 Electoral Vote NE1 Iowa, Likely Trump 6 Electoral Votes IA IA IA IA IA IA Ohio, Likely Trump 17 Electoral Votes OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH Kansas, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes KS KS KS KS KS KS Montana, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes MT MT MT MT Missouri, Safe Trump 10 Electoral Votes MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO South Carolina, Safe Trump 9 Electoral Votes SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC Nebraska, Safe Trump 2 Electoral Votes (*Plus one EV per congressional district) NE NE Florida, Safe Trump 30 Electoral Votes FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL Texas, Safe Trump 40 Electoral Votes TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX Indiana, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN Louisiana, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA Utah, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes UT UT UT UT UT UT Mississippi, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes MS MS MS MS MS MS Tennessee, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN Arkansas, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes AR AR AR AR AR AR Alabama, Safe Trump 9 Electoral Votes AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL Kentucky, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes KY KY KY KY KY KY KY KY South Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes SD SD SD Oklahoma, Safe Trump 7 Electoral Votes OK OK OK OK OK OK OK Idaho, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes ID ID ID ID North Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes ND ND ND West Virginia, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes WV WV WV WV Wyoming, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes WY WY WY Nebraska-3, Safe Trump 1 Electoral Vote NE3 DC DC DC VT VT VT MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA HI HI HI HI ME1 NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO OR OR OR OR OR OR OR OR CT CT CT CT CT CT CT DE DE DE RI RI RI RI ME ME VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL NM NM NM NM NM MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN NE2 NH NH NH NH WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NV NV NV NV NV NV AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ ME2 AK AK AK NE1 IA IA IA IA IA IA OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH KS KS KS KS KS KS MT MT MT MT MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC NE NE FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA UT UT UT UT UT UT MS MS MS MS MS MS TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN AR AR AR AR AR AR AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL KY KY KY KY KY KY KY KY SD SD SD OK OK OK OK OK OK OK ID ID ID ID ND ND ND WV WV WV WV WY WY WY NE3 270 EV to win 338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection Latest update: November 6, 2024 ▲312 Trump✔ [312-312] Harris 226▼ [226-226]
80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 District de Columbia, Harris solide 3 Grands Électeurs DC+84 Vermont, Harris solide 3 Grands Électeurs VT+32 Hawaii, Harris solide 4 Grands Électeurs HI+26 Massachusetts, Harris solide 11 Grands Électeurs MA+26 Maine-1, Harris solide 1 Grand Électeur ME1+26 Maryland, Harris solide 10 Grands Électeurs MD+23 Washington, Harris solide 12 Grands Électeurs WA+20 Californie, Harris solide 54 Grands Électeurs CA+18 Delaware, Harris probable 3 Grands Électeurs DE+15 Rhode Island, Harris probable 4 Grands Électeurs RI+13 Oregon, Harris probable 8 Grands Électeurs OR+12 New York, Harris solide 28 Grands Électeurs NY+12 Colorado, Harris probable 10 Grands Électeurs CO+11 Connecticut, Harris probable 7 Grands Électeurs CT+11 Maine, Harris probable 2 Grands Électeurs (*plus un GÉ par district) ME+9 Nouveau-Mexique, Harris enclin 5 Grands Électeurs NM+6 Virginie, Harris enclin 13 Grands Électeurs VA+5 Nebraska-2, Harris enclin 1 Grand Électeur NE2+5 New Jersey, Harris enclin 14 Grands Électeurs NJ+5 Minnesota, Harris enclin 10 Grands Électeurs MN+4 Illinois, Harris enclin 19 Grands Électeurs IL+4 New Hampshire, Pivot 4 Grands Électeurs NH+3 Wisconsin, Pivot 10 Grands Électeurs WI+0.8 Michigan, Pivot 15 Grands Électeurs MI+2 Tipping point: PA Pennsylvanie, Trump enclin 19 Grands Électeurs PA+2 Georgie, Trump enclin 16 Grands Électeurs GA+2 Caroline du Nord, Trump enclin 16 Grands Électeurs NC+3 Nevada, Trump enclin 6 Grands Électeurs NV+5 Arizona, Trump enclin 11 Grands Électeurs AZ+5 Maine-2, Trump enclin 1 Grand Électeur ME2+9 Ohio, Trump probable 17 Grands Électeurs OH+11 Floride, Trump solide 30 Grands Électeurs FL+13 Iowa, Trump probable 6 Grands Électeurs IA+13 Texas, Trump solide 40 Grands Électeurs TX+14 Alaska, Trump probable 3 Grands Électeurs AK+15 Missouri, Trump solide 10 Grands Électeurs MO+16 Kansas, Trump solide 6 Grands Électeurs KS+17 Caroline du Sud, Trump solide 9 Grands Électeurs SC+17 Nebraska-1, Trump probable 1 Grand Électeur NE1+17 Indiana, Trump solide 11 Grands Électeurs IN+20 Montana, Trump solide 4 Grands Électeurs MT+21 Louisiane, Trump solide 8 Grands Électeurs LA+22 Nebraska, Trump solide 2 Grands Électeurs (*plus un GÉ par district) NE+22 Utah, Trump solide 6 Grands Électeurs UT+24 Mississippi, Trump solide 6 Grands Électeurs MS+25 Tennessee, Trump solide 11 Grands Électeurs TN+30 Arkansas, Trump solide 6 Grands Électeurs AR+30 Alabama, Trump solide 9 Grands Électeurs AL+30 Kentucky, Trump solide 8 Grands Électeurs KY+31 Dakota du Sud, Trump solide 3 Grands Électeurs SD+33 Oklahoma, Trump solide 7 Grands Électeurs OK+34 Idaho, Trump solide 4 Grands Électeurs ID+36 Dakota du Nord, Trump solide 3 Grands Électeurs ND+37 Virginie Occidentale, Trump solide 4 Grands Électeurs WV+42 Wyoming, Trump solide 3 Grands Électeurs WY+46 Nebraska-3, Trump solide 1 Grand Électeur NE3+55 The Tipping Point District of Columbia, Safe Harris 3 Electoral Votes DC+84 Vermont, Safe Harris 3 Electoral Votes VT+32 Hawaii, Safe Harris 4 Electoral Votes HI+26 Massachusetts, Safe Harris 11 Electoral Votes MA+26 Maine-1, Safe Harris 1 Electoral Vote ME1+26 Maryland, Safe Harris 10 Electoral Votes MD+23 Washington, Safe Harris 12 Electoral Votes WA+20 California, Safe Harris 54 Electoral Votes CA+18 Delaware, Likely Harris 3 Electoral Votes DE+15 Rhode Island, Likely Harris 4 Electoral Votes RI+13 Oregon, Likely Harris 8 Electoral Votes OR+12 New York, Safe Harris 28 Electoral Votes NY+12 Colorado, Likely Harris 10 Electoral Votes CO+11 Connecticut, Likely Harris 7 Electoral Votes CT+11 Maine, Likely Harris 2 Electoral Votes (*Plus one EV per congressional district) ME+9 New Mexico, Leaning Harris 5 Electoral Votes NM+6 Virginia, Leaning Harris 13 Electoral Votes VA+5 Nebraska-2, Leaning Harris 1 Electoral Vote NE2+5 New Jersey, Leaning Harris 14 Electoral Votes NJ+5 Minnesota, Leaning Harris 10 Electoral Votes MN+4 Illinois, Leaning Harris 19 Electoral Votes IL+4 New Hampshire, Toss up 4 Electoral Votes NH+3 Wisconsin, Toss up 10 Electoral Votes WI+0.8 Michigan, Toss up 15 Electoral Votes MI+2 Tipping point: PA Pennsylvania, Leaning Trump 19 Electoral Votes PA+2 Georgia, Leaning Trump 16 Electoral Votes GA+2 North Carolina, Leaning Trump 16 Electoral Votes NC+3 Nevada, Leaning Trump 6 Electoral Votes NV+5 Arizona, Leaning Trump 11 Electoral Votes AZ+5 Maine-2, Leaning Trump 1 Electoral Vote ME2+9 Ohio, Likely Trump 17 Electoral Votes OH+11 Florida, Safe Trump 30 Electoral Votes FL+13 Iowa, Likely Trump 6 Electoral Votes IA+13 Texas, Safe Trump 40 Electoral Votes TX+14 Alaska, Likely Trump 3 Electoral Votes AK+15 Missouri, Safe Trump 10 Electoral Votes MO+16 Kansas, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes KS+17 South Carolina, Safe Trump 9 Electoral Votes SC+17 Nebraska-1, Likely Trump 1 Electoral Vote NE1+17 Indiana, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes IN+20 Montana, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes MT+21 Louisiana, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes LA+22 Nebraska, Safe Trump 2 Electoral Votes (*Plus one EV per congressional district) NE+22 Utah, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes UT+24 Mississippi, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes MS+25 Tennessee, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes TN+30 Arkansas, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes AR+30 Alabama, Safe Trump 9 Electoral Votes AL+30 Kentucky, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes KY+31 South Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes SD+33 Oklahoma, Safe Trump 7 Electoral Votes OK+34 Idaho, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes ID+36 North Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes ND+37 West Virginia, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes WV+42 Wyoming, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes WY+46 Nebraska-3, Safe Trump 1 Electoral Vote NE3+55 The Tipping Point November 6, 2024

Electoral College Projection

Trump [312-312] Harris [226-226] Seat projection 330 300 270 240 210 180 150 120 90 60 30 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Biden drops out Trump Harris 270 EV to win November 6, 2024 2024-06-11 Trump 278 Harris 260 2024-06-11 2024-06-13 Trump 297 Harris 241 2024-06-13 2024-06-15 Trump 287 Harris 251 2024-06-15 2024-06-17 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-06-17 2024-06-19 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-06-19 2024-06-21 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-06-21 2024-06-23 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-06-23 2024-06-25 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-06-25 2024-06-27 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-06-27 2024-06-29 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-06-29 2024-07-01 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-01 2024-07-03 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-03 2024-07-05 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-05 2024-07-07 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-07 2024-07-09 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-09 2024-07-11 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-11 2024-07-13 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-13 2024-07-15 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-15 2024-07-17 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-17 2024-07-19 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-19 2024-07-23 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-23 2024-07-25 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-07-25 2024-07-27 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-07-27 2024-07-29 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-07-29 2024-07-31 Trump 287 Harris 251 2024-07-31 2024-08-02 Trump 287 Harris 251 2024-08-02 2024-08-04 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-08-04 2024-08-06 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-08-06 2024-08-08 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-08-08 2024-08-10 Harris 281 Trump 257 2024-08-10 2024-08-12 Harris 281 Trump 257 2024-08-12 2024-08-14 Harris 281 Trump 257 2024-08-14 2024-08-16 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-08-16 2024-08-18 Harris 281 Trump 257 2024-08-18 2024-08-20 Harris 281 Trump 257 2024-08-20 2024-08-22 Harris 298 Trump 240 2024-08-22 2024-08-24 Harris 298 Trump 240 2024-08-24 2024-08-26 Harris 298 Trump 240 2024-08-26 2024-08-28 Harris 282 Trump 256 2024-08-28 2024-08-30 Harris 277 Trump 261 2024-08-30 2024-09-01 Harris 277 Trump 261 2024-09-01 2024-09-03 Harris 293 Trump 245 2024-09-03 2024-09-05 Harris 271 Trump 267 2024-09-05 2024-09-09 Trump 270 Harris 268 2024-09-09 2024-09-11 Trump 270 Harris 268 2024-09-11 2024-09-13 Harris 287 Trump 251 2024-09-13 2024-09-15 Harris 287 Trump 251 2024-09-15 2024-09-17 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-09-17 2024-09-19 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-09-19 2024-09-23 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-09-25 2024-09-27 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-09-27 2024-09-29 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-09-29 2024-10-03 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-10-03 2024-10-05 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-10-05 2024-10-08 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-10-08 2024-10-10 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-10-10 2024-10-14 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-10-14 2024-10-17 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-10-17 2024-10-22 Harris 286 Trump 252 2024-10-22 2024-10-26 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-10-26 2024-10-29 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-10-29 2024-10-30 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-10-30 2024-11-01 Trump 287 Harris 251 2024-11-01 2024-11-02 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-11-02 2024-11-03 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-11-03 2024-11-04 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-11-04 2024-11-05 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-11-05 2024-11-06 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-11-06