Ajax



Latest projection: April 26, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Ajax


Liberal Jennifer McKelvie
Conservative Greg Brady
NDP Kyle Forster
Green Leigh Paulseth
Centrist Faisal Ali

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Ajax 61% ± 8% LPC 29% ± 7% CPC 6% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 56.8% 338Canada vote projection | April 26, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ajax >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 26, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ajax

LPC 61% ± 8% CPC 29% ± 7% NDP 6% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Ajax 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC April 26, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 53% CPC 30% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 55% CPC 29% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 8% GPC 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 8% GPC 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 58% CPC 27% NDP 8% GPC 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 8% GPC 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 58% CPC 27% NDP 8% GPC 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 58% CPC 27% NDP 8% GPC 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 59% CPC 27% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 59% CPC 28% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 60% CPC 27% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 6% GPC 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 6% GPC 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 6% GPC 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 6% GPC 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 5% GPC 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 64% CPC 28% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 62% CPC 29% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 63% CPC 29% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 60% CPC 29% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 60% CPC 30% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 60% CPC 29% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 61% CPC 29% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 61% CPC 29% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 61% CPC 29% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-26 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Ajax

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 26, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Ajax



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 57.7% 56.8% 61% ± 8% CPC 26.0% 26.6% 29% ± 7% NDP 11.5% 14.0% 6% ± 4% GPC 3.3% 2.5% 3% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% PPC 1.0% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.