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Ajax


MP elect: Jennifer McKelvie (LPC)

Latest projection: May 11, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Ajax


Liberal Jennifer McKelvie
Conservative Greg Brady
NDP Kyle Forster
Green Leigh Paulseth
Centrist Faisal Ali

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Ajax 56% ± 5% LPC 39% ± 5% CPC 3% ± 2% NDP LPC 2025 56.2% 338Canada vote projection | May 11, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ajax >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 11, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ajax

LPC 56% ± 5% CPC 39% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Ajax 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC May 11, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 38% LPC 38% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 39% CPC 37% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 40% CPC 36% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 42% CPC 35% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 46% CPC 33% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 50% CPC 32% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 52% CPC 30% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 54% CPC 29% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 53% CPC 30% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 55% CPC 29% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 57% CPC 28% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 57% CPC 28% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 58% CPC 27% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 58% CPC 28% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 58% CPC 27% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 58% CPC 27% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 59% CPC 27% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 59% CPC 28% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 60% CPC 27% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 61% CPC 27% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 61% CPC 27% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 61% CPC 27% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 61% CPC 28% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 62% CPC 28% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 64% CPC 28% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 63% CPC 28% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 63% CPC 28% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 63% CPC 28% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 63% CPC 28% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 62% CPC 29% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 63% CPC 29% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 63% CPC 28% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 62% CPC 27% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 62% CPC 28% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 62% CPC 27% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 62% CPC 27% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 62% CPC 27% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 63% CPC 27% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 62% CPC 27% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 62% CPC 28% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 61% CPC 28% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 60% CPC 29% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 60% CPC 30% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 60% CPC 29% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 61% CPC 28% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 61% CPC 28% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 61% CPC 29% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 61% CPC 29% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 61% CPC 29% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 60% CPC 29% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 61% CPC 29% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 56% CPC 39% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 56% CPC 39% 2025-05-11 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Ajax

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP May 11, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 66% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 70% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 88% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Ajax



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 56% ± 5% 57.7% 56.8% 56.2% CPC 39% ± 5% 26.0% 26.6% 39.2% NDP 3% ± 2% 11.5% 14.0% 2.7% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% GPC 1% ± 1% 3.3% 2.5% 0.9% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.