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Ajax



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
Ajax 39% ± 7% LPC 36% ± 7% CPC 17% ± 5% NDP 8% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 56.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ajax 65% LPC 35% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ajax

LPC 39% ± 7% CPC 36% ± 7% NDP 17% ± 5% GPC 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Ajax 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 42% CPC 35% NDP 15% GPC 9% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 42% CPC 34% NDP 15% GPC 9% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 43% CPC 34% NDP 14% GPC 9% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 43% CPC 34% NDP 15% GPC 9% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 43% CPC 33% NDP 14% GPC 9% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 43% CPC 33% NDP 15% GPC 9% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 42% CPC 33% NDP 16% GPC 9% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 43% CPC 34% NDP 15% GPC 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 43% CPC 34% NDP 15% GPC 7% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 43% CPC 34% NDP 15% GPC 7% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 42% CPC 34% NDP 15% GPC 7% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 42% CPC 34% NDP 15% GPC 7% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 42% CPC 34% NDP 16% GPC 7% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 42% CPC 34% NDP 15% GPC 8% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 43% CPC 33% NDP 15% GPC 7% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 44% CPC 32% NDP 15% GPC 8% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 44% CPC 33% NDP 14% GPC 8% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 43% CPC 33% NDP 14% GPC 8% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 43% CPC 35% NDP 13% GPC 8% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 42% CPC 36% NDP 13% GPC 8% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 41% CPC 36% NDP 14% GPC 8% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 40% CPC 37% NDP 14% GPC 8% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 41% CPC 36% NDP 15% GPC 8% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 41% CPC 35% NDP 15% GPC 8% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 41% CPC 35% NDP 15% GPC 8% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 41% CPC 35% NDP 15% GPC 8% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 42% CPC 35% NDP 15% GPC 8% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 42% CPC 34% NDP 15% GPC 8% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 41% CPC 36% NDP 15% GPC 8% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 40% CPC 36% NDP 15% GPC 8% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 39% CPC 36% NDP 17% GPC 8% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 39% CPC 36% NDP 17% GPC 8% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Ajax

LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Ajax



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 57.7% 56.8% 39% ± 7% CPC 26.0% 26.6% 36% ± 7% NDP 11.5% 14.0% 17% ± 5% GPC 3.3% 2.5% 8% ± 4% PPC 1.0% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.