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Ajax


Latest projection: May 12, 2024
LPC leaning
Note: The terms "hold" and "gain" are used to compare current projections with transposed 2021 results onto the new electoral map.
Ajax 42% ± 8% LPC 35% ± 7% CPC 15% ± 5% NDP 9% ± 5% GPC LPC 2021 56.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ajax 90%▲ LPC 10%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ajax

LPC 42% ± 8% CPC 35% ± 7% NDP 15% ± 5% GPC 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Ajax 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC May 12, 2024

Odds of winning | Ajax

LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP May 12, 2024

Recent electoral history | Ajax



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 57.7% 56.8% 42% ± 8% CPC 26.0% 26.6% 35% ± 7% NDP 11.5% 14.0% 15% ± 5% GPC 3.3% 2.5% 9% ± 5% PPC 1.0% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.