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Canada

Nipissing—Timiskaming


MP: Pauline Rochefort (LPC)

Latest projection: June 8, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Recent electoral history | Nipissing—Timiskaming


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 47% ± 8% 38.5% 36.9% 47.2% CPC 44% ± 8% 27.5% 31.9% 44.6% NDP 6% ± 3% 22.6% 23.3% 6.1% PPC 1% ± 2% 5.2% 7.9% 1.1% GPC 1% ± 1% 6.3% 0.0% 1.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Nipissing—Timiskaming


Nipissing—Timiskaming 47% ± 8% LPC 44% ± 8%▼ CPC 6% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 47.2% 338Canada vote projection | June 8, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nipissing—Timiskaming 67%▲ LPC 33%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 8, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Nipissing—Timiskaming

LPC 47% ± 8% CPC 44% ± 8% NDP 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Nipissing—Timiskaming 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 8, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 45% NDP 25% LPC 23% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 44% NDP 25% LPC 24% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 44% LPC 25% NDP 24% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 42% LPC 28% NDP 23% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 40% LPC 31% NDP 22% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 40% LPC 35% NDP 19% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 39% LPC 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 39% LPC 38% NDP 16% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 40% LPC 37% NDP 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 39% LPC 39% NDP 15% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 14% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 14% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 14% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 46% CPC 37% NDP 12% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 46% CPC 37% NDP 12% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 46% CPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 47% CPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 48% CPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 48% CPC 37% NDP 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 47% CPC 38% NDP 10% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 49% CPC 38% NDP 9% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 49% CPC 38% NDP 9% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 51% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 10% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 10% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 51% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 46% CPC 37% NDP 13% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-06-08 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Nipissing—Timiskaming

LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 8, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader