logo
Canada

Nipissing—Timiskaming



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Nipissing—Timiskaming


Liberal Pauline Rochefort
Conservative Garry Keller
NDP Valerie Kennedy
Green Louise Poitras
PPC John Janssen

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Nipissing—Timiskaming 51% ± 8% LPC 36% ± 8% CPC 10% ± 5%▲ NDP LPC 2021 36.9% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nipissing—Timiskaming 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Nipissing—Timiskaming

LPC 51% ± 8% CPC 36% ± 8% NDP 10% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Nipissing—Timiskaming 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 40% LPC 37% NDP 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 39% LPC 39% NDP 15% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 14% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 14% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 14% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 46% CPC 37% NDP 12% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 46% CPC 37% NDP 12% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 46% CPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 47% CPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 48% CPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 48% CPC 37% NDP 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 47% CPC 38% NDP 10% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 49% CPC 38% NDP 9% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 49% CPC 38% NDP 9% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 51% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 10% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Nipissing—Timiskaming

LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Nipissing—Timiskaming



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 38.5% 36.9% 51% ± 8% CPC 27.5% 31.9% 36% ± 8% NDP 22.6% 23.3% 10% ± 5% PPC 5.2% 7.9% 2% ± 3% GPC 6.3% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.