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Recent electoral history | Nipissing—Timiskaming


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 46% ± 7% 38.5% 36.9% 47.2% CPC 41% ± 7% 27.5% 31.9% 44.6% NDP 9% ± 4% 22.6% 23.3% 6.1% PPC 1% ± 2% 5.2% 7.9% 1.1%

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338Canada Nipissing—Timiskaming projection

Latest update: February 22, 2026

Nipissing—Timiskaming 39% 53% 46% ± 7% LPC 34% 48% 41% ± 7% CPC 4% 13% 9% ± 4% NDP LPC 2025 47.2% 338Canada vote projection | February 22, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nipissing—Timiskaming 81%▼ LPC 19%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 22, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Nipissing—Timiskaming

LPC 46% ± 7% CPC 41% ± 7% NDP 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Nipissing—Timiskaming 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC February 22, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 46% CPC 37% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 49% CPC 41% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 44% CPC 44% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 44% CPC 44% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 10% GPC 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 10% GPC 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 10% GPC 1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 10% GPC 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 46% CPC 42% NDP 10% GPC 1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 45% CPC 42% NDP 10% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 45% CPC 42% NDP 11% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 13% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 13% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 41% CPC 41% NDP 13% GPC 3% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 41% CPC 41% NDP 13% GPC 3% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 13% GPC 3% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 44% CPC 40% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 45% CPC 41% NDP 10% GPC 2% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 47% CPC 40% NDP 9% GPC 2% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC 46% CPC 41% NDP 9% GPC 2% 2026-02-22

Odds of winning | Nipissing—Timiskaming

LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP February 22, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2026-02-22


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Demographic data | Nipissing—Timiskaming

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 92.2% English 6.3% French 0.2% German 0.1% Punjabi 0.1% Italian 0.1% Spanish 0.1% MandarinNipissing—TimiskamingSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 11.5% No diploma 25.6% High school 7.3% Trade 34.7% College / Cégep 1.4% Some university 14.2% Bachelor's 5.5% PostgraduateNipissing—TimiskamingSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 96.8% Not visible minority 3.2% Visible minority 1.0% South Asian 0.8% Black 0.4% Chinese 0.2% Latin American 0.2% Filipino 0.2% Southeast AsianNipissing—TimiskamingSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 39.0% No Religion 35.7% Catholic 6.2% United Church 4.4% Christian (n.o.s.) 3.8% Anglican 3.2% Other Christian 1.2% Pentecostal 1.1% PresbyterianNipissing—TimiskamingSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 69.6% Owner 30.1% Renter 0.4% Community housingNipissing—TimiskamingSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 51.0% Employed 42.8% Not in labour force 6.1% UnemployedNipissing—TimiskamingSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 88.5% Non-Indigenous 11.5% Indigenous identity 7.1% First Nations 3.9% Metis 0.2% Others 0.2% Multiple 0.1% InukNipissing—TimiskamingSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 88.7% Car / truck / van 6.1% Walking 2.3% Other 2.3% Public transit 0.6% BicycleNipissing—TimiskamingSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.