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Canada

Nipissing—Timiskaming


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
CPC safe
Nipissing—Timiskaming 41% ± 7% CPC 28% ± 6% LPC 24% ± 6% NDP 4% ± 5% PPC LPC 2021 36.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nipissing—Timiskaming >99%▲ CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Nipissing—Timiskaming

LPC 28% ± 6% CPC 41% ± 7% NDP 24% ± 6% PPC 4% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Nipissing—Timiskaming 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP PPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 42% LPC 28% NDP 25% PPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 42% LPC 28% NDP 25% PPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 41% LPC 29% NDP 24% PPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 41% LPC 28% NDP 25% PPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 41% LPC 29% NDP 25% PPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 40% LPC 29% NDP 25% PPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 40% LPC 28% NDP 26% PPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 41% LPC 28% NDP 24% PPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 41% LPC 28% NDP 24% PPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 41% LPC 28% NDP 24% PPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 41% LPC 28% NDP 24% PPC 4% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Nipissing—Timiskaming

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Nipissing—Timiskaming



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 38.5% 36.9% 28% ± 6% CPC 27.5% 31.9% 41% ± 7% NDP 22.6% 23.3% 24% ± 6% PPC 5.2% 7.9% 4% ± 5% GPC 6.3% 0.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.