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Nipissing—Timiskaming

Latest update: January 11, 2026
L
MP: Pauline Rochefort
Ontario
Toss up LPC/CPC

Recent electoral history | Nipissing—Timiskaming


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 41% ± 7% 38.5% 36.9% 47.2% CPC 41% ± 7% 27.5% 31.9% 44.6% NDP 13% ± 5% 22.6% 23.3% 6.1% PPC 1% ± 2% 5.2% 7.9% 1.1%

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338Canada Nipissing—Timiskaming projection

Latest update: January 11, 2026

338Canada projection for Nipissing—Timiskaming


Nipissing—Timiskaming 34% 48% 41% ± 7% LPC 34% 48% 41% ± 7% CPC 8% 18% 13% ± 5% NDP 0% 5% 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2025 47.2% 338Canada vote projection | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nipissing—Timiskaming 53%▼ LPC 47%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Nipissing—Timiskaming

LPC 41% ± 7% CPC 41% ± 7% NDP 13% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Nipissing—Timiskaming 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 46% CPC 37% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 49% CPC 41% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 44% CPC 44% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 44% CPC 44% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 10% GPC 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 10% GPC 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 10% GPC 1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 10% GPC 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 46% CPC 42% NDP 10% GPC 1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 45% CPC 42% NDP 10% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 45% CPC 42% NDP 11% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 13% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 13% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 41% CPC 41% NDP 13% GPC 3% 2026-01-11

Odds of winning | Nipissing—Timiskaming

LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2026-01-11