The 338Canada / Qc125 model has thus far covered 20 general elections in Canada. In total, 2,509 electoral districts were projected.

So far, the model has correctly identified the winner in 2,238 districts, a success rate of 89.2%.

Among the 271 remaining districts, 168 of the winners (6.7%) obtained a share of the vote that was within the projection's margin of error (moe). Only 103 districts (4.1%) were complete misses.

On this site, electoral districts are labelled according to the odds of winning by the projected favourite party. If a party's odds of winning are at or above 99.9% (formerly 99.5%), the district is labelled as safe. Between 90% and 99.9%, the district is likely. Between 70% ad 90%, we use the label leaning. Finally, if no party has odds above 70%, the district will be labelled as a toss up.

Here below is the complete breakdown of correct and incorrect winners from safe, likely, leaning and toss up districts:

	Districts	Correct winner	Incorrect winner	Correct %
Safe	1,166	1,150	16	99%
Likely	606	563	43	93%
Leaning	318	262	56	82%
Toss up	419	263	156	63%
Total	2,509	2,238	271	89%

Here is the record of the 338Canada model in every election covered since its creation in 2017. Click on the links to see details.