The Record So Far

The 338Canada / Qc125 model has thus far covered 16 general elections in Canada. In total, 1,860 electoral districts were projected.

So far, the model has correctly identified the winner in 1,664 districts, a success rate of 89.5%.

Among the 196 remaining districts, 117 of the winners (6.3%) obtained a share of the vote that was within the projection's margin of error (moe). Only 79 districts (4.2%) were complete misses.

On this site, electoral districts are labelled according to the odds of winning by the projected favourite party. If a party's odds of winning are at or above 99.9% (formerly 99.5%), the district is labelled as safe. Between 90% and 99.9%, the district is likely. Between 70% ad 90%, we use the label leaning. Finally, if no party has odds above 70%, the district will be labelled as a toss up.

Here below is the complete breakdown of correct and incorrect winners from safe, likely, leaning and toss up districts:

	Districts	Correct winner	Incorrect winner	Correct %
Safe	858	843	15	98%
Likely	448	417	31	93%
Leaning	255	214	41	84%
Toss up	299	190	109	64%
Total	1,860	1,664	196	89.5%

Here is the record of the 338Canada model in every election covered since its creation in 2017. Click on the links to see details.

Elections	Correct %
2024 Saskatchewan General Election	92%
2024 New Brunswick General Election	84%
2024 British Columbia General Election	84%
2023 Manitoba General Election	91%
2023 Alberta General Election	94%
2022 Quebec General Election	94%
2022 Ontario General Election	87%
2021 Canadian Federal Election	92%
2021 Nova Scotia General Election	64%
2020 Saskatchewan General Election	90%
2020 British Columbia General Election	89%
2020 New Brunswick General Election	96%
2019 Canadian Federal Elections	88%
2019 Alberta General Election	94%
2018 Quebec General Election	90%
2018 Ontario General Election	90%