The Record So Far
The 338Canada / Qc125 model has thus far covered 17 general elections in Canada.
In total, 1,915 electoral districts were projected.
So far, the model has correctly identified the winner in 1,718 districts, a success rate of 89.7%.
Among the 197 remaining districts, 118 of the winners (6.2%) obtained a share of the vote that was within the projection's margin of error (moe). Only 79 districts (4.1%) were complete misses.
So far, the model has correctly identified the winner in 1,718 districts, a success rate of 89.7%.
Among the 197 remaining districts, 118 of the winners (6.2%) obtained a share of the vote that was within the projection's margin of error (moe). Only 79 districts (4.1%) were complete misses.
On this site, electoral districts are labelled according to the odds of winning by the projected favourite party.
If a party's odds of winning are at or above 99.9% (formerly 99.5%), the district is labelled as safe. Between 90% and 99.9%, the district is likely.
Between 70% ad 90%, we use the label leaning. Finally, if no party has odds above 70%, the district will be labelled as a toss up.
Here below is the complete breakdown of correct and incorrect winners from safe, likely, leaning and toss up districts:
Here below is the complete breakdown of correct and incorrect winners from safe, likely, leaning and toss up districts:
| Districts | Correct winner |
Incorrect winner |
Correct % | |
| Safe | 893 | 878 | 15 | 98% |
| Likely | 458 | 426 | 32 | 93% |
| Leaning | 257 | 216 | 41 | 84% |
| Toss up | 307 | 198 | 109 | 64% |
| Total | 1,915 | 1,718 | 197 | 89.7% |
Here is the record of the 338Canada model in every election covered since its creation in 2017. Click on the links to see details.