The Record So Far
The 338Canada / Qc125 model has thus far covered 12 general elections in Canada.
In total, 1,600 electoral districts were projected.
So far, the model has correctly identified the winner in 1,437 districts, a success rate of 89.8%.
Among the 163 remaining districts, 95 of the winners (5.9%) obtained a share of the vote that was within the projection's margin of error (moe). Only 68 districts (4.2%) were complete misses.
So far, the model has correctly identified the winner in 1,437 districts, a success rate of 89.8%.
Among the 163 remaining districts, 95 of the winners (5.9%) obtained a share of the vote that was within the projection's margin of error (moe). Only 68 districts (4.2%) were complete misses.
On this site, electoral districts are labelled according to the odds of winning by the projected favourite party.
If a party's odds of winning are at or above 99.5%, the district is labelled as safe. Between 90% and 99.5%, the district is likely.
Between 70% ad 90%, we use the label leaning. Finally, if no party has odds above 70%, the district will be labelled as a toss up.
Here below is the complete breakdown of correct and incorrect winners from safe, likely, leaning and toss up districts:
Here below is the complete breakdown of correct and incorrect winners from safe, likely, leaning and toss up districts:
Districts | Correct winner |
Incorrect winner |
Correct % | |
Safe | 718 | 707 | 11 | 98% |
Likely | 394 | 370 | 24 | 94% |
Leaning | 226 | 191 | 35 | 85% |
Toss up | 262 | 169 | 93 | 65% |
Total | 1,600 | 1,437 | 163 | 89.8% |
Districts | Correct winner |
Correct % | |
Safe | 718 | 707 | 98% |
Likely | 394 | 370 | 94% |
Leaning | 226 | 191 | 85% |
Toss up | 262 | 169 | 65% |
Total | 1,600 | 1,437 | 89.8% |
Here is the record of the 338Canada model in every election covered since its creation in 2017. Click on the links to see details.