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Canada

The Record So Far



The 338Canada / Qc125 model has thus far covered 13 general elections in Canada. In total, 1,657 electoral districts were projected.

So far, the model has correctly identified the winner in 1,489 districts, a success rate of 89.9%.

Among the 168 remaining districts, 99 of the winners (6.0%) obtained a share of the vote that was within the projection's margin of error (moe). Only 69 districts (4.2%) were complete misses.
1489 / 1657 (89.9%) Correct winner 99 / 1657 (6.0%) Incorrect winner, but within moe 69 / 1657 (4.2%) Incorrect winner, outside moe The Record So Far | 338Canada


On this site, electoral districts are labelled according to the odds of winning by the projected favourite party. If a party's odds of winning are at or above 99.5%, the district is labelled as safe. Between 90% and 99.5%, the district is likely. Between 70% ad 90%, we use the label leaning. Finally, if no party has odds above 70%, the district will be labelled as a toss up.

Here below is the complete breakdown of correct and incorrect winners from safe, likely, leaning and toss up districts:
Districts Correct
winner
Incorrect
winner
Correct %
Safe 748 737 11 99%
Likely 408 384 24 94%
Leaning 228 193 35 85%
Toss up 273 175 98 64%
Total 1,657 1,489 168 90%
Districts Correct
winner
Correct %
Safe 748 737 99%
Likely 408 384 94%
Leaning 228 193 85%
Toss up 273 175 64%
Total 1,657 1,489 89.9%


Here is the record of the 338Canada model in every election covered since its creation in 2017. Click on the links to see details.

ElectionsCorrect %
2023 Manitoba General Election 91%
2023 Alberta General Election 94%
2022 Quebec General Election 94%
2022 Ontario General Election 87%
2021 Canadian Federal Election 92%
2021 Nova Scotia General Election 64%
2020 Saskatchewan General Election 90%
2020 British Columbia General Election 89%
2020 New Brunswick General Election 96%
2019 Canadian Federal Elections 88%
2019 Alberta General Election 94%
2018 Quebec General Election 90%
2018 Ontario General Election 90%