The 338Canada / Qc125 model has thus far covered 19 general elections in Canada. In total, 2,382 electoral districts were projected.

So far, the model has correctly identified the winner in 2,120 districts, a success rate of 89.0%.

Among the 262 remaining districts, 161 of the winners (6.8%) obtained a share of the vote that was within the projection's margin of error (moe). Only 101 districts (4.2%) were complete misses.

On this site, electoral districts are labelled according to the odds of winning by the projected favourite party. If a party's odds of winning are at or above 99.9% (formerly 99.5%), the district is labelled as safe. Between 90% and 99.9%, the district is likely. Between 70% ad 90%, we use the label leaning. Finally, if no party has odds above 70%, the district will be labelled as a toss up.

Here below is the complete breakdown of correct and incorrect winners from safe, likely, leaning and toss up districts:

	Districts	Correct winner	Incorrect winner	Correct %
Safe	1096	1080	16	99%
Likely	576	536	40	93%
Leaning	313	258	55	82%
Toss up	397	246	151	62%
Total	2,382	2,120	262	89%

Here is the record of the 338Canada model in every election covered since its creation in 2017. Click on the links to see details.