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Canada

The Record So Far



The 338Canada / Qc125 model has thus far covered 11 general elections in Canada. In total, 1,513 electoral districts were projected.

So far, the model has correctly identified the winner in 1,355 districts, a success rate of 89.6%.

Among the 158 remaining districts, 90 of the winners (5.9%) obtained a share of the vote that was within the projection's margin of error (moe). Only 68 districts (4.5%) were complete misses.
1355 / 1513 (89.6%) Correct winner 90 / 1513 (5.9%) Incorrect winner, but within moe 68 / 1513 (4.5%) Incorrect winner, outside moe The Record So Far | 338Canada


On this site, electoral districts are labelled according to the odds of winning by the projected favourite party. If a party's odds of winning are at or above 99.5%, the district is labelled as safe. Between 90% and 99.5%, the district is likely. Between 70% ad 90%, we use the label leaning. Finally, if no party has odds above 70%, the district will be labelled as a toss up.

Here below is the complete breakdown of correct and incorrect winners from safe, likely, leaning and toss up districts:
Districts Correct
winner
Incorrect
winner
Correct %
Safe 683 672 11 98%
Likely 360 336 24 93%
Leaning 221 186 35 84%
Toss up 249 161 88 65%
Total 1,513 1,355 158 89.6%
Districts Correct
winner
Correct %
Safe 683 672 98%
Likely 360 336 93%
Leaning 221 186 84%
Toss up 249 161 65%
Total 1,513 1,355 89.6%


Here is the record of the 338Canada model in every election covered since its creation in 2017. Click on the links to see details.

ElectionsRéussite %
2022 Quebec General Election 94%
2022 Ontario General Election 87%
2021 Canadian Federal Election 92%
2021 Nova Scotia General Election 64%
2020 Saskatchewan General Election 90%
2020 British Columbia General Election 89%
2020 New Brunswick General Election 96%
2019 Canadian Federal Elections 88%
2019 Alberta General Election 94%
2018 Quebec General Election 90%
2018 Ontario General Election 90%