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Canada


Barrie–Innisfil (federal)


MP: John Brassard (CPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

CPC safe hold
Barrie–Innisfil 64% ± 7%▲ 17% ± 5% 14% ± 5%▼ 4% ± 4% CPC 2021 47.69% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Barrie–Innisfil >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Barrie–Innisfil

LPC 14% ± 5% CPC 64% ± 7% NDP 17% ± 5% PPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Barrie–Innisfil 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP PPC

Odds of winning | Barrie–Innisfil

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Barrie–Innisfil



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 46.4% 43.8% 47.69% 64% ± 7% LPC 37.1% 29.3% 28.87% 14% ± 5% NDP 11.8% 16.4% 15.77% 17% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.9% 7.67% 4% ± 4% GPC 4.0% 8.7% 0.0% 1% ± 1%