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Barrie South—Innisfil



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Barrie South—Innisfil


Liberal John Olthuis
Conservative John Brassard*
NDP Andrew Harrigan
PPC Mark Sampson

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Barrie South—Innisfil 52% ± 8% CPC 39% ± 8% LPC 7% ± 4% NDP CPC 2021 47.7% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Barrie South—Innisfil 97%▲ CPC 3%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Barrie South—Innisfil

LPC 39% ± 8% CPC 52% ± 8% NDP 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Barrie South—Innisfil 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 55% LPC 27% NDP 12% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 53% LPC 29% NDP 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 52% LPC 31% NDP 10% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 52% LPC 32% NDP 10% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 52% LPC 32% NDP 10% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 52% LPC 32% NDP 10% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 51% LPC 32% NDP 10% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 52% LPC 32% NDP 10% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 51% LPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 51% LPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 51% LPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 52% LPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 52% LPC 37% NDP 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 52% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 51% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 51% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 51% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 51% LPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 52% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 52% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 51% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 51% LPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 51% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 51% LPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 51% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 51% LPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 51% LPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 52% LPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 52% LPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Barrie South—Innisfil

LPC 3% CPC 97% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Barrie South—Innisfil



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 43.8% 47.7% 52% ± 8% LPC 29.3% 28.9% 39% ± 8% NDP 16.4% 15.8% 7% ± 4% PPC 1.9% 7.7% 2% ± 3% GPC 8.7% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.