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Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj


Liberal Diane Lebouthillier*
Conservative Jean-Pierre Pigeon
NDP Denise Giroux
Bloc Quebecois Alexis Deschenes
PPC Christian Rioux
Rhinoceros Shawn Grenier

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj 47% ± 8%▲ LPC 37% ± 7% BQ 10% ± 5% CPC BQ 2021 44.3% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj 94%▲ LPC 6%▼ BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj

LPC 47% ± 8% CPC 10% ± 5% BQ 37% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC BQ April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 43% BQ 37% CPC 12% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 43% BQ 37% CPC 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 45% BQ 36% CPC 11% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 45% BQ 36% CPC 11% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 46% BQ 36% CPC 11% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 45% BQ 36% CPC 11% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 43% BQ 38% CPC 11% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 43% BQ 38% CPC 11% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 46% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 46% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 47% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 47% BQ 35% CPC 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 48% BQ 34% CPC 11% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 49% BQ 34% CPC 11% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 48% BQ 34% CPC 11% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 49% BQ 34% CPC 11% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 50% BQ 33% CPC 11% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 51% BQ 32% CPC 11% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 51% BQ 33% CPC 11% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 49% BQ 34% CPC 11% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 48% BQ 35% CPC 11% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 49% BQ 35% CPC 11% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 49% BQ 35% CPC 10% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 48% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 48% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 48% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 48% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 47% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 46% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 47% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj

LPC 94% NDP <1% BQ 6% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP BQ April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 81% BQ 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 81% BQ 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 93% BQ 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 80% BQ 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 79% BQ 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 92% BQ 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 93% BQ 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 41.7% 39.8% 47% ± 8% BQ 42.0% 44.3% 37% ± 7% CPC 7.7% 8.3% 10% ± 5% NDP 4.5% 4.3% 2% ± 2% PPC 0.5% 2.0% 2% ± 2% GPC 2.8% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.