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Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
BQ likely
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj 47% ± 8% BQ 30% ± 7% LPC 11% ± 4% CPC 6% ± 3% NDP BQ 2021 44.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj >99% BQ <1% LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj

LPC 30% ± 7% CPC 11% ± 4% NDP 6% ± 3% BQ 47% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 46% LPC 33% CPC 12% NDP 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 48% LPC 32% CPC 11% NDP 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 47% LPC 34% CPC 11% NDP 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 45% LPC 35% CPC 11% NDP 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 44% LPC 35% CPC 12% NDP 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 43% LPC 36% CPC 12% NDP 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 45% LPC 34% CPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 46% LPC 32% CPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 46% LPC 33% CPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 45% LPC 33% CPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 46% LPC 33% CPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 46% LPC 33% CPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 45% LPC 35% CPC 10% NDP 5% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 44% LPC 35% CPC 10% NDP 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 44% LPC 34% CPC 12% NDP 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 43% LPC 35% CPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 42% LPC 36% CPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 43% LPC 35% CPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 44% LPC 34% CPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 44% LPC 34% CPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 44% LPC 33% CPC 11% NDP 6% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 44% LPC 33% CPC 11% NDP 6% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 44% LPC 33% CPC 11% NDP 6% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 45% LPC 34% CPC 10% NDP 6% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 45% LPC 34% CPC 10% NDP 6% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 45% LPC 33% CPC 10% NDP 6% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 46% LPC 33% CPC 10% NDP 6% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 45% LPC 33% CPC 11% NDP 6% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 46% LPC 31% CPC 11% NDP 6% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 46% LPC 31% CPC 11% NDP 6% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 47% LPC 30% CPC 11% NDP 6% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 47% LPC 30% CPC 11% NDP 6% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj

LPC <1% NDP <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj



2019 2021 Proj. BQ 42.0% 44.3% 47% ± 8% LPC 41.7% 39.8% 30% ± 7% CPC 7.7% 8.3% 11% ± 4% NDP 4.5% 4.3% 6% ± 3% PPC 0.5% 2.0% 2% ± 2% GPC 2.8% 0.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.