logo
Canada

Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj


MP: Alexis Deschenes (BQ)

Latest projection: June 29, 2025
BQ leaning

Recent electoral history | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj


2019 2021 2025 Proj. BQ 45% ± 7% 42.0% 44.3% 45.8% LPC 40% ± 8% 41.7% 39.8% 38.3% CPC 11% ± 4% 7.7% 8.3% 12.4% NDP 2% ± 2% 4.5% 4.3% 1.8% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.5% 2.0% 0.8%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj


Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj 45% ± 7%▼ BQ 40% ± 8%▲ LPC 11% ± 4%▼ CPC BQ 2025 45.8% 338Canada vote projection | June 29, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj 76%▼ BQ 24%▲ LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | June 29, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj

LPC 40% ± 8% CPC 11% ± 4% BQ 45% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 49% LPC 28% CPC 13% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 48% LPC 28% CPC 13% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 47% LPC 29% CPC 13% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 47% LPC 30% CPC 13% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 43% LPC 34% CPC 12% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 42% LPC 37% CPC 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 40% LPC 39% CPC 12% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 42% BQ 38% CPC 11% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 43% BQ 37% CPC 12% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 43% BQ 37% CPC 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 45% BQ 36% CPC 11% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 45% BQ 36% CPC 11% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 46% BQ 36% CPC 11% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 45% BQ 36% CPC 11% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 43% BQ 38% CPC 11% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 43% BQ 38% CPC 11% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 46% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 46% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 47% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 47% BQ 35% CPC 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 48% BQ 34% CPC 11% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 49% BQ 34% CPC 11% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 48% BQ 34% CPC 11% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 49% BQ 34% CPC 11% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 50% BQ 33% CPC 11% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 51% BQ 32% CPC 11% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 51% BQ 33% CPC 11% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 49% BQ 34% CPC 11% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 48% BQ 35% CPC 11% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 49% BQ 35% CPC 11% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 49% BQ 35% CPC 10% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 48% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 48% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 48% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 48% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 47% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 46% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 47% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 47% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 47% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 47% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 46% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 46% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 46% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 46% BQ 38% CPC 10% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 45% BQ 39% CPC 11% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 44% BQ 39% CPC 11% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 44% BQ 39% CPC 11% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 44% BQ 39% CPC 11% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 43% BQ 39% CPC 11% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 43% BQ 40% CPC 10% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 46% LPC 38% CPC 12% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 46% LPC 38% CPC 12% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 46% LPC 38% CPC 12% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 46% LPC 38% CPC 12% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 46% LPC 38% CPC 12% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 46% LPC 38% CPC 12% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ 46% LPC 38% CPC 12% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 46% LPC 38% CPC 12% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 45% LPC 40% CPC 11% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj

LPC 24% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 76% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 72% BQ 28% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 81% BQ 19% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 81% BQ 19% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 93% BQ 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 80% BQ 20% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 79% BQ 21% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 92% BQ 8% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 93% BQ 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 96% BQ 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 92% BQ 8% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 92% BQ 8% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 92% BQ 8% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 90% BQ 10% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 84% BQ 16% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 79% BQ 21% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 78% BQ 22% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 78% BQ 22% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 73% BQ 27% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 70% BQ 30% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader