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Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
BQ likely
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj 46% ± 8%▲ BQ 33% ± 7% LPC 11% ± 4% CPC 5% ± 3% NDP BQ 2021 44.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj 98% BQ 2% LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj

LPC 33% ± 7% CPC 11% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 3% BQ 46% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 46% LPC 33% CPC 12% NDP 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 48% LPC 32% CPC 11% NDP 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 47% LPC 34% CPC 11% NDP 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 45% LPC 35% CPC 11% NDP 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 44% LPC 35% CPC 12% NDP 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 43% LPC 36% CPC 12% NDP 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 45% LPC 34% CPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 46% LPC 32% CPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 46% LPC 33% CPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 45% LPC 33% CPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 46% LPC 33% CPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj

LPC 2% NDP <1% BQ 98% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj



2019 2021 Proj. BQ 42.0% 44.3% 46% ± 8% LPC 41.7% 39.8% 33% ± 7% CPC 7.7% 8.3% 11% ± 4% NDP 4.5% 4.3% 5% ± 3% PPC 0.5% 2.0% 2% ± 2% GPC 2.8% 0.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.