logo
logo
Canada

Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj


MP elect: Alexis Deschenes (BQ)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
BQ likely

Candidates | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj


Liberal Diane Lebouthillier*
Conservative Jean-Pierre Pigeon
NDP Denise Giroux
Bloc Quebecois Alexis Deschenes
PPC Christian Rioux
Rhinoceros Shawn Grenier

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj 46% ± 6% BQ 38% ± 6% LPC 12% ± 4% CPC BQ 2025 45.8% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj 93%▼ BQ 7%▲ LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj

LPC 38% ± 6% CPC 12% ± 4% BQ 46% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 49% LPC 28% CPC 13% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 48% LPC 28% CPC 13% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 47% LPC 29% CPC 13% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 47% LPC 30% CPC 13% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 43% LPC 34% CPC 12% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 42% LPC 37% CPC 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 40% LPC 39% CPC 12% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 42% BQ 38% CPC 11% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 43% BQ 37% CPC 12% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 43% BQ 37% CPC 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 45% BQ 36% CPC 11% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 45% BQ 36% CPC 11% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 46% BQ 36% CPC 11% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 45% BQ 36% CPC 11% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 43% BQ 38% CPC 11% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 43% BQ 38% CPC 11% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 46% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 46% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 47% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 47% BQ 35% CPC 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 48% BQ 34% CPC 11% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 49% BQ 34% CPC 11% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 48% BQ 34% CPC 11% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 49% BQ 34% CPC 11% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 50% BQ 33% CPC 11% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 51% BQ 32% CPC 11% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 51% BQ 33% CPC 11% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 49% BQ 34% CPC 11% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 48% BQ 35% CPC 11% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 49% BQ 35% CPC 11% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 49% BQ 35% CPC 10% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 48% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 48% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 48% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 48% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 47% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 46% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 47% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 47% BQ 36% CPC 10% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 47% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 47% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 46% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 46% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 46% BQ 37% CPC 10% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 46% BQ 38% CPC 10% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 45% BQ 39% CPC 11% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 44% BQ 39% CPC 11% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 44% BQ 39% CPC 11% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 44% BQ 39% CPC 11% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 43% BQ 39% CPC 11% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 43% BQ 40% CPC 10% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 46% LPC 38% CPC 12% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 46% LPC 38% CPC 12% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 46% LPC 38% CPC 12% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 46% LPC 38% CPC 12% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj

LPC 7% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 93% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 72% BQ 28% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 81% BQ 19% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 81% BQ 19% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 93% BQ 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 80% BQ 20% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 79% BQ 21% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 92% BQ 8% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 93% BQ 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 96% BQ 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 92% BQ 8% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 92% BQ 8% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 92% BQ 8% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 90% BQ 10% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 84% BQ 16% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 79% BQ 21% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 78% BQ 22% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 78% BQ 22% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 73% BQ 27% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 70% BQ 30% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj



2019 2021 2025 Proj. BQ 46% ± 6% 42.0% 44.3% 45.8% LPC 38% ± 6% 41.7% 39.8% 38.3% CPC 12% ± 4% 7.7% 8.3% 12.4% NDP 2% ± 1% 4.5% 4.3% 1.8% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.5% 2.0% 0.8% GPC 0% ± 0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.