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Canada

Winnipeg South Centre



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
Winnipeg South Centre 37% ± 7% LPC 35% ± 7% CPC 21% ± 6% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 45.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Winnipeg South Centre 65%▲ LPC 35%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Winnipeg South Centre

LPC 37% ± 7% CPC 35% ± 7% NDP 21% ± 6% GPC 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Winnipeg South Centre 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 43% CPC 31% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 44% CPC 31% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 45% CPC 31% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 45% CPC 31% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 46% CPC 30% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 47% CPC 29% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 46% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 45% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 46% CPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 46% CPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 45% CPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 45% CPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 44% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 43% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 44% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 45% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 46% CPC 27% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 45% CPC 28% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 45% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 43% CPC 29% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 39% CPC 31% NDP 22% GPC 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 36% CPC 32% NDP 24% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 36% CPC 33% NDP 24% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 36% CPC 33% NDP 24% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 36% CPC 33% NDP 23% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 36% CPC 33% NDP 23% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 37% CPC 34% NDP 22% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 38% CPC 34% NDP 22% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 37% CPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 37% CPC 36% NDP 21% GPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 37% CPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 37% CPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 3% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Winnipeg South Centre

LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 69% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Winnipeg South Centre



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 44.4% 45.3% 37% ± 7% CPC 30.2% 28.1% 35% ± 7% NDP 18.0% 20.7% 21% ± 6% PPC 1.1% 2.8% 1% ± 2% GPC 6.2% 2.7% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.