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Canada

Winnipeg South Centre


MP elect: Ben Carr (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Winnipeg South Centre


Liberal Ben Carr*
Conservative Royden Brousseau
NDP Jorge Requena Ramos
Green Chris Petriew
PPC Jaclyn Cummings
Communist Cam Scott
Independent Tait Palsson

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Winnipeg South Centre 64% ± 6%▲ LPC 28% ± 6% CPC 7% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 63.6% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Winnipeg South Centre >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Winnipeg South Centre

LPC 64% ± 6% CPC 28% ± 6% NDP 7% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Winnipeg South Centre 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 38% LPC 36% NDP 21% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 37% CPC 37% NDP 20% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 38% CPC 36% NDP 20% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 39% CPC 35% NDP 20% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 42% CPC 33% NDP 20% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 45% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 48% CPC 32% NDP 15% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 50% CPC 30% NDP 14% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 14% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 55% CPC 27% NDP 12% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 60% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 60% CPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 60% CPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 60% CPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 60% CPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 60% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 61% CPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 61% CPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 62% CPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 61% CPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 61% CPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 61% CPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 62% CPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 62% CPC 25% NDP 8% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 62% CPC 25% NDP 8% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 62% CPC 25% NDP 8% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 62% CPC 25% NDP 8% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 62% CPC 25% NDP 8% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 62% CPC 25% NDP 8% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 62% CPC 25% NDP 8% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 64% CPC 24% NDP 7% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 64% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 64% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 64% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Winnipeg South Centre

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Winnipeg South Centre



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 64% ± 6% 44.4% 45.3% 63.6% CPC 28% ± 6% 30.2% 28.1% 27.7% NDP 7% ± 3% 18.0% 20.7% 6.5% GPC 1% ± 1% 6.2% 2.7% 0.8% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.1% 2.8% 0.5%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.