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Recent electoral history | Winnipeg South Centre


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 65% ± 7% 44.4% 45.3% 63.6% CPC 23% ± 6% 30.2% 28.1% 27.7% NDP 8% ± 4% 18.0% 20.7% 6.5%

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338Canada Winnipeg South Centre projection

Latest update: March 8, 2026

Winnipeg South Centre 59% 72% 65% ± 7% LPC 18% 29% 23% ± 6% CPC 4% 12% 8% ± 4% NDP LPC 2025 63.6% 338Canada vote projection | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Winnipeg South Centre >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Winnipeg South Centre

LPC 65% ± 7% CPC 23% ± 6% NDP 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Winnipeg South Centre 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 62% CPC 25% NDP 8% GPC 2% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 62% CPC 25% NDP 8% GPC 2% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 64% CPC 24% NDP 7% GPC 2% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 64% CPC 28% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 64% CPC 28% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 64% CPC 28% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 64% CPC 28% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 65% CPC 26% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 66% CPC 25% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 66% CPC 25% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 66% CPC 25% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 66% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 65% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 65% CPC 25% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 65% CPC 25% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 63% CPC 26% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 63% CPC 26% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 63% CPC 26% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 64% CPC 25% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 63% CPC 26% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 63% CPC 26% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 63% CPC 26% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 63% CPC 26% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 63% CPC 26% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 63% CPC 26% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 63% CPC 26% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 60% CPC 27% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 61% CPC 26% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 61% CPC 26% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 63% CPC 25% NDP 9% GPC 2% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 64% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 2% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 65% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 2% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 65% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 2% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC 65% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 2% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 LPC 65% CPC 23% NDP 8% GPC 2% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 LPC 65% CPC 23% NDP 8% GPC 2% 2026-03-08

Odds of winning | Winnipeg South Centre

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-03-08


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Demographic data | Winnipeg South Centre

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 87.2% English 1.5% Mandarin 1.5% Punjabi 1.0% Tagalog 1.0% Spanish 0.7% Korean 0.6% CantoneseWinnipeg South CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 4.5% No diploma 19.5% High school 4.3% Trade 17.1% College / Cégep 2.9% Some university 33.0% Bachelor's 18.8% PostgraduateWinnipeg South CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 75.2% Not visible minority 24.8% Visible minority 6.8% South Asian 3.7% Chinese 3.7% Filipino 3.7% Black 1.5% Latin American 1.1% KoreanWinnipeg South CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 41.2% No Religion 16.8% Catholic 8.4% Christian (n.o.s.) 5.2% United Church 4.6% Jewish 3.6% Anglican 2.8% Muslim 2.4% HinduWinnipeg South CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 57.7% Owner 42.3% RenterWinnipeg South CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 62.4% Employed 32.1% Not in labour force 5.5% UnemployedWinnipeg South CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 91.9% Non-Indigenous 8.1% Indigenous identity 4.9% Metis 2.9% First Nations 0.1% Others 0.1% MultipleWinnipeg South CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 78.4% Car / truck / van 10.1% Public transit 6.6% Walking 2.5% Bicycle 2.4% OtherWinnipeg South CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.