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Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie

Latest update: January 11, 2026
L
MP: Bienvenu-Olivier Ntumba
Quebec
Toss up LPC/BQ

Recent electoral history | Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 41% ± 7% 35.0% 34.1% 47.1% BQ 39% ± 7% 43.2% 45.5% 35.1% CPC 12% ± 4% 7.0% 9.7% 13.7% NDP 5% ± 3% 8.7% 8.3% 2.3%

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338Canada Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie projection

Latest update: January 11, 2026

338Canada projection for Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie


Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie 34% 48% 41% ± 7% LPC 32% 46% 39% ± 7% BQ 8% 16% 12% ± 4% CPC 1% 8% 5% ± 3% NDP 0% 5% 3% ± 2% GPC LPC 2025 47.1% 338Canada vote projection | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie 64%▲ LPC 36%▼ BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie

LPC 41% ± 7% CPC 12% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 3% BQ 39% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 42% BQ 38% CPC 14% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 42% BQ 38% CPC 14% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 42% BQ 38% CPC 14% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 47% BQ 35% CPC 14% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 47% BQ 35% CPC 14% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 47% BQ 35% CPC 14% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 47% BQ 35% CPC 14% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 47% BQ 35% CPC 14% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 47% BQ 35% CPC 14% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 47% BQ 36% CPC 13% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 47% BQ 35% CPC 13% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 49% BQ 34% CPC 13% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 51% BQ 33% CPC 12% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 51% BQ 32% CPC 12% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 51% BQ 32% CPC 12% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 51% BQ 33% CPC 12% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 51% BQ 33% CPC 12% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 50% BQ 34% CPC 12% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 49% BQ 35% CPC 12% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 48% BQ 35% CPC 12% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 48% BQ 35% CPC 12% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 46% BQ 37% CPC 12% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 47% BQ 36% CPC 13% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 47% BQ 35% CPC 13% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 46% BQ 36% CPC 13% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 46% BQ 36% CPC 13% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 45% BQ 37% CPC 13% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 44% BQ 37% CPC 13% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 44% BQ 37% CPC 13% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 44% BQ 37% CPC 13% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 44% BQ 37% CPC 14% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 44% BQ 37% CPC 14% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 44% BQ 37% CPC 14% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 44% BQ 37% CPC 14% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 44% BQ 39% CPC 13% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 43% BQ 39% CPC 13% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 42% BQ 40% CPC 13% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 41% BQ 39% CPC 12% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 41% BQ 39% CPC 12% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 41% BQ 39% CPC 12% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2026-01-11

Odds of winning | Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie

LPC 64% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 36% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 74% BQ 26% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 72% BQ 28% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 71% BQ 29% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 96% BQ 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 96% BQ 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 96% BQ 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 91% BQ 9% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 90% BQ 10% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 90% BQ 10% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 90% BQ 10% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 91% BQ 9% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 90% BQ 10% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 87% BQ 13% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 86% BQ 14% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 80% BQ 20% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 74% BQ 26% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 63% BQ 37% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 64% BQ 36% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 63% BQ 37% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 64% BQ 36% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-11