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Canada

Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie


MP: Bienvenu-Olivier Ntumba (LPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
LPC likely

Recent electoral history | Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 47% ± 8% 35.0% 34.1% 47.1% BQ 35% ± 7% 43.2% 45.5% 35.1% CPC 14% ± 5% 7.0% 9.7% 13.7% NDP 2% ± 2% 8.7% 8.3% 2.3% GPC 1% ± 1% 5.0% 0.2% 1.2% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.8% 2.1% 0.6%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.


Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie 47% ± 8% LPC 35% ± 7% BQ 14% ± 5% CPC LPC 2025 47.1% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie 98%▼ LPC 2%▲ BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie

LPC 47% ± 8% CPC 14% ± 5% BQ 35% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 51% LPC 23% CPC 14% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 50% LPC 23% CPC 15% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 50% LPC 24% CPC 15% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 50% LPC 25% CPC 14% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 47% LPC 28% CPC 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 46% LPC 31% CPC 14% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 44% LPC 33% CPC 14% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 41% LPC 36% CPC 13% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 41% LPC 36% CPC 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 40% LPC 38% CPC 13% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 40% BQ 38% CPC 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 40% BQ 38% CPC 13% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 40% BQ 38% CPC 13% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 40% BQ 38% CPC 13% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 40% BQ 39% CPC 13% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 40% BQ 39% CPC 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 42% BQ 38% CPC 12% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 43% BQ 38% CPC 12% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 43% BQ 37% CPC 12% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 44% BQ 36% CPC 12% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 45% BQ 35% CPC 13% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 45% BQ 35% CPC 13% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 45% BQ 35% CPC 12% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 46% BQ 35% CPC 13% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 47% BQ 34% CPC 13% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 48% BQ 33% CPC 13% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 47% BQ 34% CPC 12% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 47% BQ 34% CPC 12% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 48% BQ 34% CPC 12% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 48% BQ 34% CPC 12% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 48% BQ 34% CPC 11% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 47% BQ 35% CPC 11% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 48% BQ 34% CPC 11% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 48% BQ 34% CPC 12% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 47% BQ 34% CPC 12% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 47% BQ 35% CPC 12% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 46% BQ 35% CPC 12% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 47% BQ 35% CPC 12% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 46% BQ 35% CPC 12% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 46% BQ 35% CPC 12% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 46% BQ 36% CPC 12% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 45% BQ 36% CPC 12% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 45% BQ 36% CPC 12% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 44% BQ 37% CPC 12% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 44% BQ 37% CPC 12% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 43% BQ 38% CPC 13% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 42% BQ 38% CPC 13% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 42% BQ 38% CPC 13% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 42% BQ 38% CPC 14% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 42% BQ 38% CPC 14% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 42% BQ 38% CPC 14% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 47% BQ 35% CPC 14% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 47% BQ 35% CPC 14% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 47% BQ 35% CPC 14% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 47% BQ 35% CPC 14% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 47% BQ 35% CPC 14% 2025-06-01 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie

LPC 98% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 2% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 61% BQ 39% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 65% BQ 35% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 66% BQ 34% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 65% BQ 35% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 54% BQ 46% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 53% BQ 47% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 77% BQ 23% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 81% BQ 19% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 88% BQ 12% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 91% BQ 9% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 96% BQ 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 96% BQ 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 96% BQ 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 89% BQ 11% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 85% BQ 15% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 81% BQ 19% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 76% BQ 24% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 74% BQ 26% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 74% BQ 26% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 72% BQ 28% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 71% BQ 29% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader