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Canada


Montarville (federal)


MP: Stéphane Bergeron (BQ)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

BQ safe hold
Montarville 47% ± 8%▲ 27% ± 6%▼ 13% ± 4% 11% ± 4% BQ 2021 45.25% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Montarville >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Montarville

LPC 27% ± 6% CPC 13% ± 4% NDP 11% ± 4% BQ 47% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Montarville 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP BQ

Odds of winning | Montarville

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Montarville



2015 2019 2021 Proj. BQ 28.4% 42.8% 45.25% 47% ± 8% LPC 32.5% 35.6% 34.75% 27% ± 6% CPC 10.9% 7.0% 9.5% 13% ± 4% NDP 24.7% 8.4% 8.36% 11% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 0.8% 2.14% 1% ± 2% GPC 2.4% 5.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%