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Recent electoral history | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 40% ± 6% 37.3% 37.6% 44.1% LPC 40% ± 6% 18.2% 13.2% 37.3% NDP 15% ± 5% 34.0% 39.0% 16.2% GPC 3% ± 2% 7.9% 3.4% 1.5% PPC 1% ± 1% 2.2% 6.9% 1.0%

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338Canada Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay projection

Latest update: March 8, 2026

Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay 34% 47% 40% ± 6% CPC 34% 47% 40% ± 6% LPC 10% 21% 15% ± 5% NDP 0% 5% 3% ± 2% GPC CPC 2025 44.1% 338Canada vote projection | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay 51%▼ CPC 49%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay

LPC 40% ± 6% CPC 40% ± 6% NDP 15% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 47% LPC 27% NDP 23% GPC 2% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 47% LPC 27% NDP 22% GPC 2% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 46% NDP 26% LPC 25% GPC 2% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 2% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 2% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 2% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 2% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 2% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 2% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 45% LPC 36% NDP 17% GPC 2% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 45% LPC 36% NDP 17% GPC 2% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 45% LPC 36% NDP 17% GPC 2% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 17% GPC 2% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 17% GPC 2% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 17% GPC 2% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 42% LPC 38% NDP 17% GPC 2% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 42% LPC 39% NDP 17% GPC 2% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 42% LPC 38% NDP 18% GPC 2% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 42% LPC 38% NDP 18% GPC 2% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 42% LPC 38% NDP 18% GPC 2% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 42% LPC 38% NDP 17% GPC 2% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 43% LPC 37% NDP 17% GPC 2% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 17% GPC 2% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 17% GPC 2% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 17% GPC 2% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 43% LPC 37% NDP 17% GPC 2% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 17% GPC 2% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 17% GPC 2% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 17% GPC 2% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 17% GPC 2% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 17% GPC 2% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 2% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 45% LPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 2% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 45% LPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 2% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 45% LPC 35% NDP 18% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 45% LPC 35% NDP 18% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 45% LPC 35% NDP 18% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 43% LPC 33% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 43% LPC 33% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 42% LPC 33% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 42% LPC 33% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 42% LPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 43% LPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 15% GPC 3% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 CPC 42% LPC 39% NDP 15% GPC 3% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 CPC 41% LPC 40% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 CPC 40% LPC 40% NDP 15% GPC 3% 2026-03-08

Odds of winning | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay

LPC 49% CPC 51% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2026-03-08


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Demographic data | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 95.4% English 2.1% Punjabi 0.4% French 0.3% Spanish 0.2% Portuguese 0.2% Tagalog 0.2% GermanSimilkameen—South Okanagan—West KootenaySource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 10.3% No diploma 30.4% High school 11.7% Trade 24.6% College / Cégep 3.4% Some university 13.2% Bachelor's 6.5% PostgraduateSimilkameen—South Okanagan—West KootenaySource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 92.3% Not visible minority 7.7% Visible minority 3.4% South Asian 0.9% Filipino 0.7% Chinese 0.6% Latin American 0.6% Black 0.4% JapaneseSimilkameen—South Okanagan—West KootenaySource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 57.1% No Religion 11.5% Catholic 7.8% Christian (n.o.s.) 4.9% United Church 3.8% Anglican 2.9% Other Christian 2.5% Sikh 1.8% LutheranSimilkameen—South Okanagan—West KootenaySource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 75.8% Owner 23.9% Renter 0.3% Community housingSimilkameen—South Okanagan—West KootenaySource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 48.5% Employed 46.7% Not in labour force 4.8% UnemployedSimilkameen—South Okanagan—West KootenaySource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 92.7% Non-Indigenous 7.3% Indigenous identity 3.8% First Nations 3.3% Metis 0.1% Multiple 0.1% OthersSimilkameen—South Okanagan—West KootenaySource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 85.6% Car / truck / van 9.0% Walking 2.8% Other 1.4% Bicycle 1.2% Public transitSimilkameen—South Okanagan—West KootenaySource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.