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Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay



Latest projection: March 28, 2025
CPC safe
Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay 47% ± 8% CPC 25% ± 6% LPC 22% ± 6% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC NDP 2021 39.0% 338Canada vote projection | March 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay

LPC 25% ± 6% CPC 47% ± 8% NDP 22% ± 6% GPC 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC March 28, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 48% NDP 28% LPC 17% GPC 4% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 48% NDP 27% LPC 18% GPC 4% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% LPC 23% NDP 22% GPC 4% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% LPC 23% NDP 23% GPC 4% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 48% LPC 23% NDP 23% GPC 4% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% LPC 23% NDP 22% GPC 4% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 48% LPC 24% NDP 22% GPC 4% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 49% LPC 24% NDP 22% GPC 3% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 47% LPC 25% NDP 23% GPC 3% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 48% LPC 25% NDP 22% GPC 3% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 47% LPC 25% NDP 22% GPC 3% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 47% LPC 25% NDP 22% GPC 3% 2025-03-28 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP March 28, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 37.3% 37.6% 47% ± 8% LPC 18.2% 13.2% 25% ± 6% NDP 34.0% 39.0% 22% ± 6% GPC 7.9% 3.4% 3% ± 3% PPC 2.2% 6.9% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.