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Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay


Liberal Gloria Morgan
Conservative Helena Konanz
NDP Linda Sankey
Green Philip Mansfield
PPC Barry Dewar

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay 44% ± 8%▼ CPC 30% ± 7% LPC 23% ± 6%▲ NDP NDP 2021 39.0% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay 99%▼ CPC 1%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay

LPC 30% ± 7% CPC 44% ± 8% NDP 23% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 48% NDP 28% LPC 17% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 48% NDP 27% LPC 18% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% LPC 23% NDP 22% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% LPC 23% NDP 23% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 48% LPC 23% NDP 23% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% LPC 23% NDP 22% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 48% LPC 24% NDP 22% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 49% LPC 24% NDP 22% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 47% LPC 25% NDP 23% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 48% LPC 25% NDP 22% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 47% LPC 25% NDP 22% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 47% LPC 25% NDP 22% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 47% LPC 25% NDP 22% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 47% LPC 26% NDP 22% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 47% LPC 26% NDP 22% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 46% LPC 27% NDP 23% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 45% LPC 27% NDP 23% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 45% LPC 28% NDP 23% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 45% LPC 28% NDP 23% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 45% LPC 28% NDP 23% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 46% LPC 28% NDP 23% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 46% LPC 27% NDP 22% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 47% LPC 28% NDP 22% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 46% LPC 29% NDP 22% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 46% LPC 29% NDP 21% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 45% LPC 30% NDP 22% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 45% LPC 30% NDP 22% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 45% LPC 30% NDP 22% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 44% LPC 30% NDP 22% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 45% LPC 30% NDP 22% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 45% LPC 30% NDP 22% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 44% LPC 30% NDP 23% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay

LPC 1% CPC 99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 37.3% 37.6% 44% ± 8% LPC 18.2% 13.2% 30% ± 7% NDP 34.0% 39.0% 23% ± 6% GPC 7.9% 3.4% 2% ± 2% PPC 2.2% 6.9% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.