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Canada


South Surrey–White Rock (federal)


MP: Kerry-Lynne Findlay (CPC)


Latest projection: December 3, 2023

CPC safe hold
South Surrey–White Rock 54% ± 7%▼ 28% ± 6%▼ 16% ± 5%▲ CPC 2021 42.44% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 3, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% South Surrey–White Rock >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | December 3, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | South Surrey–White Rock

LPC 28% ± 6% CPC 54% ± 7% NDP 16% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | South Surrey–White Rock 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 LPC CPC NDP

Odds of winning | South Surrey–White Rock

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | South Surrey–White Rock



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 44.0% 41.9% 42.44% 54% ± 7% LPC 41.5% 37.4% 38.91% 28% ± 6% NDP 10.4% 11.6% 14.81% 16% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.5% 3.84% 2% ± 2% GPC 3.4% 7.7% 0.0% 1% ± 1%