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Canada

Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay


MP: Helena Konanz (CPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
CPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 44% ± 8% 37.3% 37.6% 44.1% LPC 37% ± 7% 18.2% 13.2% 37.3% NDP 16% ± 5% 34.0% 39.0% 16.2% GPC 2% ± 2% 7.9% 3.4% 1.5% PPC 1% ± 1% 2.2% 6.9% 1.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.



Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay 44% ± 8% CPC 37% ± 7% LPC 16% ± 5% NDP CPC 2025 44.1% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay 87%▼ CPC 13%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay

LPC 37% ± 7% CPC 44% ± 8% NDP 16% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 54% NDP 32% LPC 8% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 55% NDP 30% LPC 8% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 55% NDP 30% LPC 9% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 54% NDP 30% LPC 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 54% NDP 29% LPC 11% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 52% NDP 28% LPC 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 52% NDP 26% LPC 15% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 48% NDP 28% LPC 17% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 48% NDP 28% LPC 17% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 48% NDP 27% LPC 18% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% LPC 23% NDP 22% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% LPC 23% NDP 23% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 48% LPC 23% NDP 23% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% LPC 23% NDP 22% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 48% LPC 24% NDP 22% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 49% LPC 24% NDP 22% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 47% LPC 25% NDP 23% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 48% LPC 25% NDP 22% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 47% LPC 25% NDP 22% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 47% LPC 25% NDP 22% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 47% LPC 25% NDP 22% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 47% LPC 26% NDP 22% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 47% LPC 26% NDP 22% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 46% LPC 27% NDP 23% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 45% LPC 27% NDP 23% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 45% LPC 28% NDP 23% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 45% LPC 28% NDP 23% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 45% LPC 28% NDP 23% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 46% LPC 28% NDP 23% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 46% LPC 27% NDP 22% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 47% LPC 28% NDP 22% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 46% LPC 29% NDP 22% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 46% LPC 29% NDP 21% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 45% LPC 30% NDP 22% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 45% LPC 30% NDP 22% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 45% LPC 30% NDP 22% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 44% LPC 30% NDP 22% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 45% LPC 30% NDP 22% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 45% LPC 30% NDP 22% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 44% LPC 30% NDP 23% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 43% LPC 30% NDP 23% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 44% LPC 30% NDP 23% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 44% LPC 30% NDP 23% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 44% LPC 30% NDP 22% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 46% LPC 26% NDP 24% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 46% LPC 26% NDP 24% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 46% LPC 27% NDP 23% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 46% LPC 27% NDP 23% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 47% LPC 27% NDP 23% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 47% LPC 27% NDP 22% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 46% NDP 26% LPC 25% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 16% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 16% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 16% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 16% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 16% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay

LPC 13% CPC 87% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader