logo
Canada

Richmond Centre—Marpole



Latest projection: April 14, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Candidates | Richmond Centre—Marpole


Liberal Wilson Miao*
Conservative Chak Au
NDP Martin Li
Green Michael Sisler
PPC David Wang

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Richmond Centre—Marpole 45% ± 9%▼ LPC 43% ± 9% CPC 9% ± 5% NDP LPC 2021 38.6% 338Canada vote projection | April 14, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Richmond Centre—Marpole 63%▼ LPC 37%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 14, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Richmond Centre—Marpole

LPC 45% ± 9% CPC 43% ± 9% NDP 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Richmond Centre—Marpole 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 14, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 42% LPC 42% NDP 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 49% CPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 51% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 52% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 55% CPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 55% CPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 52% CPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 52% CPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 48% CPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 46% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-04-14 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Richmond Centre—Marpole

LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 14, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Richmond Centre—Marpole



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 27.0% 38.6% 45% ± 9% CPC 45.4% 35.5% 43% ± 9% NDP 14.2% 20.4% 9% ± 5% GPC 5.7% 3.1% 2% ± 2% PPC 1.4% 2.5% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.