logo
Canada


Saanich–Gulf Islands (federal)


MP: Elizabeth May (GPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

GPC safe hold
Saanich–Gulf Islands 45% ± 8% 27% ± 6% 14% ± 5% 13% ± 4%▼ GPC 2021 37.47% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Saanich–Gulf Islands >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saanich–Gulf Islands

LPC 13% ± 4% CPC 27% ± 6% NDP 14% ± 5% GPC 45% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Saanich–Gulf Islands 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Saanich–Gulf Islands

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Saanich–Gulf Islands



2015 2019 2021 Proj. GPC 54.4% 49.1% 37.47% 45% ± 8% CPC 19.5% 20.2% 22.54% 27% ± 6% NDP 9.1% 12.7% 18.41% 14% ± 5% LPC 16.7% 16.6% 18.4% 13% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 1.4% 2.96% 1% ± 1%