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Canada

Richmond Centre—Marpole


MP: Chak Au (CPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
CPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Richmond Centre—Marpole


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 50% ± 9% 45.4% 35.5% 49.6% LPC 45% ± 9% 27.0% 38.6% 44.7% NDP 4% ± 3% 14.2% 20.4% 4.4% GPC 1% ± 1% 5.7% 3.1% 0.9% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.4% 2.5% 0.4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.



Richmond Centre—Marpole 50% ± 9% CPC 45% ± 9% LPC 4% ± 3% NDP CPC 2025 49.6% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Richmond Centre—Marpole 74%▼ CPC 26%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Richmond Centre—Marpole

LPC 45% ± 9% CPC 50% ± 9% NDP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Richmond Centre—Marpole 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 53% LPC 25% NDP 17% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 53% LPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 53% LPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 52% LPC 28% NDP 16% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 50% LPC 31% NDP 15% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 47% LPC 34% NDP 14% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 13% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 13% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 42% LPC 42% NDP 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 49% CPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 51% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 52% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 55% CPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 55% CPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 52% CPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 52% CPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 48% CPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 46% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 9% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 8% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 8% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 45% LPC 45% NDP 8% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 45% CPC 45% NDP 8% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 7% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 46% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 7% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 50% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 50% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Richmond Centre—Marpole

LPC 26% CPC 74% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader