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Canada

Richmond Centre—Marpole


MP elect: Chak Au (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC leaning

Candidates | Richmond Centre—Marpole


Liberal Wilson Miao*
Conservative Chak Au
NDP Martin Li
Green Michael Sisler
PPC David Wang

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Richmond Centre—Marpole 50% ± 0%▲ CPC 44% ± 0%▼ LPC 4% ± 0%▼ NDP CPC 2025 49.9% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Richmond Centre—Marpole 87%▲ CPC 13%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Richmond Centre—Marpole

LPC 44% ± 0% CPC 50% ± 0% NDP 4% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Richmond Centre—Marpole 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 42% LPC 42% NDP 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 49% CPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 51% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 52% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 55% CPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 55% CPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 52% CPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 52% CPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 48% CPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 46% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 9% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 8% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 8% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 45% LPC 45% NDP 8% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 45% CPC 45% NDP 8% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 7% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 46% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 7% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Richmond Centre—Marpole

LPC 13% CPC 87% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Richmond Centre—Marpole



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 50% ± 0% 45.4% 35.5% 49.9% LPC 44% ± 0% 27.0% 38.6% 44.4% NDP 4% ± 0% 14.2% 20.4% 4.4% GPC 1% ± 0% 5.7% 3.1% 0.9% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.4% 2.5% 0.4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.