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Recent electoral history | Richmond Centre—Marpole


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 49% ± 8% 45.4% 35.5% 49.6% LPC 43% ± 8% 27.0% 38.6% 44.7% NDP 5% ± 4% 14.2% 20.4% 4.4% GPC 2% ± 2% 5.7% 3.1% 0.9%

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338Canada Richmond Centre—Marpole projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Richmond Centre—Marpole 41% 57% 49% ± 8% CPC 35% 51% 43% ± 8% LPC 1% 9% 5% ± 4% NDP CPC 2025 49.6% 338Canada vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Richmond Centre—Marpole 80%▼ CPC 20%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Richmond Centre—Marpole

LPC 43% ± 8% CPC 49% ± 8% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Richmond Centre—Marpole 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC February 8, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 50% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 50% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 51% LPC 43% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 51% LPC 43% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 47% LPC 47% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 49% LPC 44% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 50% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 51% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 51% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 51% LPC 42% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 51% LPC 43% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 51% LPC 42% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 7% GPC 2% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 7% GPC 2% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 7% GPC 2% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 7% GPC 2% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 7% GPC 2% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 49% LPC 43% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Richmond Centre—Marpole

LPC 20% CPC 80% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP February 8, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2026-02-08


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Demographic data | Richmond Centre—Marpole

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 48.2% English 21.9% Mandarin 18.8% Cantonese 2.3% Tagalog 0.7% Russian 0.7% Japanese 0.7% SpanishRichmond Centre—MarpoleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 5.7% No diploma 21.3% High school 3.4% Trade 14.9% College / Cégep 5.8% Some university 33.9% Bachelor's 15.0% PostgraduateRichmond Centre—MarpoleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 80.6% Visible minority 19.4% Not visible minority 58.0% Chinese 6.4% Filipino 5.0% South Asian 2.7% Multiple 1.8% Japanese 1.4% Latin AmericanRichmond Centre—MarpoleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 56.2% No Religion 12.5% Catholic 10.1% Christian (n.o.s.) 5.6% Buddhist 3.2% Muslim 1.7% Other Christian 1.5% Sikh 1.2% AnglicanRichmond Centre—MarpoleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 62.7% Owner 37.3% RenterRichmond Centre—MarpoleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 52.6% Employed 41.0% Not in labour force 6.4% UnemployedRichmond Centre—MarpoleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 99.0% Non-Indigenous 1.0% Indigenous identity 0.6% First Nations 0.3% MetisRichmond Centre—MarpoleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 73.7% Car / truck / van 17.3% Public transit 5.8% Walking 1.8% Other 1.5% BicycleRichmond Centre—MarpoleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.