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Recent electoral history | York Centre


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 51% ± 7% 36.7% 37.8% 54.8% LPC 41% ± 7% 50.2% 47.3% 42.7% NDP 6% ± 4% 9.8% 10.2% 2.5% PPC 0% ± 1% 0.0% 4.7% 0.0%

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338Canada York Centre projection

Latest update: February 1, 2026

York Centre 43% 58% 51% ± 7% CPC 33% 48% 41% ± 7% LPC 2% 10% 6% ± 4% NDP CPC 2025 54.8% 338Canada vote projection | February 1, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% York Centre 95%▼ CPC 5%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 1, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | York Centre

LPC 41% ± 7% CPC 51% ± 7% NDP 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | York Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC February 1, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 9% GPC 0% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 9% GPC 0% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 8% GPC 0% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 55% LPC 43% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 55% LPC 43% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 55% LPC 43% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 55% LPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 55% LPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 55% LPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 54% LPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 54% LPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 54% LPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 54% LPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 53% LPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 52% LPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 53% LPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 52% LPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 52% LPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 52% LPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 53% LPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 53% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 54% LPC 43% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 53% LPC 43% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 54% LPC 42% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 54% LPC 41% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 55% LPC 41% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 54% LPC 41% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 55% LPC 41% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 54% LPC 41% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 54% LPC 41% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 54% LPC 42% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 54% LPC 42% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 54% LPC 41% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 54% LPC 41% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 52% LPC 43% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 53% LPC 42% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 53% LPC 42% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 51% LPC 39% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 51% LPC 39% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 52% LPC 39% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 52% LPC 39% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 51% LPC 39% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 51% LPC 41% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2026-02-01

Odds of winning | York Centre

LPC 5% CPC 95% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP February 1, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2026-02-01


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Demographic data | York Centre

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 64.0% English 7.7% Tagalog 5.4% Russian 3.6% Spanish 2.7% Italian 1.8% Vietnamese 1.3% KoreanYork CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 8.7% No diploma 22.6% High school 4.7% Trade 19.1% College / Cégep 4.3% Some university 26.9% Bachelor's 13.7% PostgraduateYork CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 52.5% Visible minority 47.5% Not visible minority 19.3% Filipino 8.0% Black 5.4% Latin American 4.1% South Asian 3.7% Southeast Asian 3.3% ChineseYork CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 36.0% Catholic 18.3% No Religion 14.3% Jewish 8.9% Christian (n.o.s.) 5.0% Muslim 4.4% Orthodox 2.6% Other Christian 2.5% BuddhistYork CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 50.2% Renter 49.8% OwnerYork CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 54.3% Employed 36.8% Not in labour force 8.9% UnemployedYork CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 99.5% Non-Indigenous 0.5% Indigenous identity 0.3% First Nations 0.1% MetisYork CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 63.5% Car / truck / van 30.0% Public transit 3.1% Walking 2.8% Other 0.5% BicycleYork CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.