logo
Canada

York Centre



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC leaning

Candidates | York Centre


Liberal Ya'ara Saks*
Conservative Roman Baber
NDP Yusuf Sinan Ulukanligil

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



York Centre 49% ± 9%▲ LPC 42% ± 9% CPC 9% ± 5%▲ NDP LPC 2021 47.3% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% York Centre 81%▲ LPC 19%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | York Centre

LPC 49% ± 9% CPC 42% ± 9% NDP 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | York Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 46% LPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 44% LPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 50% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 51% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 51% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 51% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 51% CPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 51% CPC 42% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 52% CPC 41% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 53% CPC 41% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 46% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 46% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | York Centre

LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | York Centre



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 50.2% 47.3% 49% ± 9% CPC 36.7% 37.8% 42% ± 9% NDP 9.8% 10.2% 9% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 4.7% 0% ± 0% GPC 3.2% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.