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Canada

York Centre


MP elect: Roman Baber (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | York Centre


Liberal Ya'ara Saks*
Conservative Roman Baber
NDP Yusuf Sinan Ulukanligil

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



York Centre 55% ± 0%▲ CPC 43% ± 0%▼ LPC CPC 2025 54.8% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% York Centre 99%▲ CPC 1%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | York Centre

LPC 43% ± 0% CPC 55% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | York Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 46% LPC 42% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 44% LPC 44% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 46% CPC 43% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 47% CPC 42% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 47% CPC 42% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 47% CPC 42% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 47% CPC 42% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 50% CPC 41% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 52% CPC 41% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 53% CPC 40% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 53% CPC 41% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 53% CPC 40% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 53% CPC 40% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 46% CPC 42% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 46% CPC 42% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 47% CPC 42% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 47% CPC 42% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 47% CPC 42% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 48% CPC 44% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 46% CPC 45% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 55% LPC 43% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | York Centre

LPC 1% CPC 99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | York Centre



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 55% ± 0% 36.7% 37.8% 54.8% LPC 43% ± 0% 50.2% 47.3% 42.7% NDP 2% ± 0% 9.8% 10.2% 2.5% PPC 0% ± 0% 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.