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Canada

Brampton South



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
Brampton South 40% ± 8% CPC 39% ± 8% LPC 16% ± 6% NDP LPC 2021 53.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Brampton South 59% CPC 41% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Brampton South

LPC 39% ± 8% CPC 40% ± 8% NDP 16% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Brampton South 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 43% CPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 43% CPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 44% CPC 38% NDP 14% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 44% CPC 38% NDP 15% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 44% CPC 38% NDP 14% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 44% CPC 37% NDP 15% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 16% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 15% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 15% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 15% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 15% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 15% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 15% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 15% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 15% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 44% CPC 36% NDP 15% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 44% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 43% CPC 39% NDP 13% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 13% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 41% CPC 40% NDP 14% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 41% LPC 40% NDP 14% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 41% CPC 40% NDP 14% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 41% CPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 41% CPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 41% CPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 42% CPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 15% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 41% CPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 40% LPC 40% NDP 15% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 40% LPC 39% NDP 16% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 40% LPC 39% NDP 16% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Brampton South

LPC 41% CPC 59% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Brampton South



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 51.4% 53.9% 39% ± 8% CPC 26.6% 29.5% 40% ± 8% NDP 18.0% 13.5% 16% ± 6% PPC 0.7% 2.9% 2% ± 2% GPC 2.4% 0.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.