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Canada

Brampton South



Latest projection: March 16, 2025
LPC safe
Brampton South 55% ± 9%▲ LPC 32% ± 8%▼ CPC 8% ± 5%▼ NDP LPC 2021 53.9% 338Canada vote projection | March 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Brampton South >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Brampton South

LPC 55% ± 9% CPC 32% ± 8% NDP 8% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Brampton South 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 LPC 41% CPC 40% NDP 14% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 41% CPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 41% CPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 41% CPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 42% CPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 15% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 41% CPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 40% LPC 40% NDP 15% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 40% LPC 39% NDP 16% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 40% LPC 39% NDP 16% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 17% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 17% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 42% LPC 36% NDP 17% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 42% LPC 37% NDP 16% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 16% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 15% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 42% CPC 39% NDP 15% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 45% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 52% CPC 34% NDP 10% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 54% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 53% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 55% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-03-16 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Brampton South

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 100% CPC 0% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Brampton South



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 51.4% 53.9% 55% ± 9% CPC 26.6% 29.5% 32% ± 8% NDP 18.0% 13.5% 8% ± 5% GPC 2.4% 0.0% 2% ± 2% PPC 0.7% 2.9% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.