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Canada


Ottawa–Vanier (federal)


MP: Mona Fortier (LPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

LPC leaning hold
Ottawa–Vanier 33% ± 6% 28% ± 6% 28% ± 6% 9% ± 5% LPC 2021 49.02% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Ottawa–Vanier 79%▼ 11%▲ 10%▲ Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ottawa–Vanier

LPC 33% ± 6% CPC 28% ± 6% NDP 28% ± 6% GPC 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa–Vanier 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Ottawa–Vanier

LPC 79% CPC 10% NDP 11% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Ottawa–Vanier



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 57.6% 51.2% 49.02% 33% ± 6% NDP 19.2% 21.2% 23.65% 28% ± 6% CPC 19.1% 17.4% 19.94% 28% ± 6% PPC 0.0% 1.7% 3.2% 2% ± 2% GPC 3.1% 7.5% 3.12% 9% ± 5% IND 0.0% 0.5% 0.28% 0% ± 0%