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Recent electoral history | Oshawa


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 42% ± 6% 25.4% 23.1% 43.0% CPC 42% ± 6% 38.9% 39.7% 48.2% NDP 12% ± 4% 28.5% 28.5% 7.7% PPC 0% ± 1% 2.0% 7.1% 0.0%

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338Canada Oshawa projection

Latest update: March 8, 2026

Oshawa 36% 49% 42% ± 6% LPC 36% 49% 42% ± 6% CPC 7% 16% 12% ± 4% NDP 0% 5% 3% ± 2% GPC CPC 2025 48.2% 338Canada vote projection | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Oshawa 51%▲ LPC 49%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Oshawa

LPC 42% ± 6% CPC 42% ± 6% NDP 12% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Oshawa 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 46% LPC 37% NDP 14% GPC 2% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 47% LPC 37% NDP 14% GPC 2% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 47% LPC 38% NDP 13% GPC 2% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 49% LPC 43% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 49% LPC 43% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 49% LPC 43% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 47% LPC 43% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 47% LPC 44% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 47% LPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 47% LPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 46% LPC 44% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 46% LPC 43% NDP 10% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 10% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 10% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 44% LPC 44% NDP 10% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 10% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 11% GPC 2% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 46% LPC 42% NDP 11% GPC 2% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 45% LPC 42% NDP 11% GPC 2% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 46% LPC 41% NDP 11% GPC 2% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 46% LPC 40% NDP 11% GPC 2% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 11% GPC 2% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 46% LPC 40% NDP 12% GPC 2% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 46% LPC 40% NDP 12% GPC 2% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 46% LPC 40% NDP 12% GPC 2% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 46% LPC 40% NDP 12% GPC 2% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 45% LPC 40% NDP 12% GPC 2% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 45% LPC 40% NDP 12% GPC 2% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 46% LPC 40% NDP 12% GPC 2% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 46% LPC 40% NDP 12% GPC 2% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 44% LPC 41% NDP 12% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 44% LPC 41% NDP 13% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 13% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 43% LPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 43% LPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 43% LPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 43% LPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 15% GPC 3% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 13% GPC 3% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 43% LPC 41% NDP 12% GPC 3% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 CPC 43% LPC 42% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 CPC 44% LPC 41% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 CPC 43% LPC 42% NDP 12% GPC 3% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 LPC 42% CPC 42% NDP 12% GPC 3% 2026-03-08

Odds of winning | Oshawa

LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2026-03-08


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Demographic data | Oshawa

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 93.4% English 0.7% French 0.5% Urdu 0.5% Tagalog 0.5% Spanish 0.4% Polish 0.3% TamilOshawaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 11.3% No diploma 31.4% High school 6.5% Trade 29.7% College / Cégep 1.7% Some university 13.7% Bachelor's 5.7% PostgraduateOshawaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 78.4% Not visible minority 21.6% Visible minority 7.8% Black 5.3% South Asian 2.4% Filipino 1.3% Latin American 1.1% Multiple 1.0% ChineseOshawaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 40.7% No Religion 22.7% Catholic 7.9% Christian (n.o.s.) 6.0% United Church 4.6% Anglican 3.9% Muslim 3.3% Other Christian 1.9% PentecostalOshawaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 61.1% Owner 38.9% RenterOshawaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 50.0% Employed 40.9% Not in labour force 9.1% UnemployedOshawaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 96.4% Non-Indigenous 3.6% Indigenous identity 2.0% First Nations 1.3% Metis 0.1% Multiple 0.1% OthersOshawaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 87.8% Car / truck / van 6.2% Public transit 3.5% Walking 2.2% Other 0.2% BicycleOshawaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.