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Canada

Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes


MP elect: Michael Barrett (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes


Liberal Lorna Jean Edmonds
Conservative Michael Barrett*
NDP Paul Lancione
Green Randi Ramdeen
PPC Hailey Simpson

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes 50% ± 0%▼ CPC 44% ± 0%▲ LPC 4% ± 0%▼ NDP CPC 2025 50.2% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes 93%▼ CPC 7%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes

LPC 44% ± 0% CPC 50% ± 0% NDP 4% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 57% LPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 56% LPC 23% NDP 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 55% LPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 55% LPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 54% LPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 55% LPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 54% LPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 55% LPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 54% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 54% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 54% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 54% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 54% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 54% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 56% LPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 57% LPC 31% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 57% LPC 31% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 57% LPC 31% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 57% LPC 31% NDP 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 57% LPC 31% NDP 6% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 57% LPC 31% NDP 6% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 57% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes

LPC 7% CPC 93% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 50% ± 0% 49.0% 50.5% 50.2% LPC 44% ± 0% 26.5% 25.2% 44.2% NDP 4% ± 0% 14.0% 15.0% 3.5% GPC 1% ± 0% 8.8% 3.6% 1.2% PPC 1% ± 0% 1.7% 5.7% 0.9%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.