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Canada

Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes


MP elect: Michael Barrett (CPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
CPC leaning

Candidates | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes


Liberal Lorna Jean Edmonds
Conservative Michael Barrett*
NDP Paul Lancione
Green Randi Ramdeen
PPC Hailey Simpson

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes 50% ± 6% CPC 44% ± 6% LPC 3% ± 2%▼ NDP CPC 2025 50.0% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes 85%▼ CPC 15%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes

LPC 44% ± 6% CPC 50% ± 6% NDP 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 64% NDP 15% LPC 10% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 63% NDP 14% LPC 11% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 63% NDP 14% LPC 11% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 60% LPC 15% NDP 14% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 59% LPC 17% NDP 13% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 58% LPC 19% NDP 11% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 57% LPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 57% LPC 22% NDP 10% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 57% LPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 56% LPC 23% NDP 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 55% LPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 55% LPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 54% LPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 55% LPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 54% LPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 55% LPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 54% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 54% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 54% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 54% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 54% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 54% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 56% LPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 57% LPC 31% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 57% LPC 31% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 57% LPC 31% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 57% LPC 31% NDP 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 57% LPC 31% NDP 6% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 57% LPC 31% NDP 6% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 57% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes

LPC 15% CPC 85% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 50% ± 6% 49.0% 50.5% 50.0% LPC 44% ± 6% 26.5% 25.2% 44.4% NDP 3% ± 2% 14.0% 15.0% 3.5% GPC 1% ± 1% 8.8% 3.6% 1.2% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.7% 5.7% 0.9%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.