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Canada

South Shore—St. Margarets


MP: Jessica Fancy-Landry (LPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
LPC likely

Recent electoral history | South Shore—St. Margarets


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 55% ± 9% 41.0% 35.6% 54.9% CPC 41% ± 8% 29.7% 43.4% 41.1% GPC 2% ± 2% 11.2% 2.8% 1.6% PPC 1% ± 2% 1.2% 0.0% 1.4% NDP 0% ± 0% 15.4% 18.2% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.



South Shore—St. Margarets 55% ± 9% LPC 41% ± 8% CPC LPC 2025 54.9% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% South Shore—St. Margarets 97%▼ LPC 3%▲ CPC <1% GPC Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | South Shore—St. Margarets

LPC 55% ± 9% CPC 41% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | South Shore—St. Margarets 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 58% LPC 22% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 57% LPC 22% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 57% LPC 22% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 56% LPC 24% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 54% LPC 26% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 52% LPC 30% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 50% LPC 32% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 46% LPC 36% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 45% LPC 36% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 43% LPC 40% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 45% CPC 42% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 45% CPC 42% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 45% CPC 41% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 45% CPC 41% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 45% CPC 41% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 45% CPC 41% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 49% CPC 39% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 49% CPC 39% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 49% CPC 39% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 49% CPC 40% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 49% CPC 40% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 49% CPC 40% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 47% CPC 42% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 46% CPC 45% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 46% CPC 45% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 46% CPC 45% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 46% CPC 46% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 46% CPC 45% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 47% CPC 45% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 45% CPC 45% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 49% CPC 47% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 49% CPC 47% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 46% LPC 45% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 47% LPC 44% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 47% LPC 44% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 47% LPC 44% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 47% LPC 45% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 46% LPC 45% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 46% LPC 45% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 46% LPC 45% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 46% LPC 45% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 46% LPC 45% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 47% LPC 44% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 47% LPC 45% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 48% LPC 44% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 48% LPC 44% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 48% LPC 44% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 48% LPC 44% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 48% LPC 44% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 55% CPC 41% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 55% CPC 41% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 55% CPC 41% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 55% CPC 41% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 55% CPC 41% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | South Shore—St. Margarets

LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader