logo
Canada

South Shore—St. Margarets



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Candidates | South Shore—St. Margarets


Liberal Jessica Fancy-Landry
Conservative Rick Perkins*
Green Mark Embrett
PPC Patrick Boyd
Independent Hayden Henderson

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



South Shore—St. Margarets 47% ± 9% CPC 44% ± 9% LPC CPC 2021 43.4% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% South Shore—St. Margarets 64% CPC 36% LPC <1% GPC Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | South Shore—St. Margarets

LPC 44% ± 9% CPC 47% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | South Shore—St. Margarets 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 45% LPC 36% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 43% LPC 40% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 45% CPC 42% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 45% CPC 42% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 45% CPC 41% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 45% CPC 41% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 45% CPC 41% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 45% CPC 41% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 49% CPC 39% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 49% CPC 39% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 49% CPC 39% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 49% CPC 40% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 49% CPC 40% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 49% CPC 40% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 47% CPC 42% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 46% CPC 45% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 46% CPC 45% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 46% CPC 45% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 46% CPC 46% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 46% CPC 45% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 47% CPC 45% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 45% CPC 45% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 49% CPC 47% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 49% CPC 47% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 46% LPC 45% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 47% LPC 44% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 47% LPC 44% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 47% LPC 44% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | South Shore—St. Margarets

LPC 36% CPC 64% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | South Shore—St. Margarets



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 29.7% 43.4% 47% ± 9% LPC 41.0% 35.6% 44% ± 9% GPC 11.2% 2.8% 1% ± 2% PPC 1.2% 0.0% 0% ± 1% NDP 15.4% 18.2% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.