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Alberta

Welcome to 338Canada Alberta!


338Canada is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data.

This website is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L’actualité, as well as a regular contributor to Politico Canada and The Walrus.

He also appears as a panelist on CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter to stay updated — and enjoy the website!



338Canada Projection | Alberta


Latest update: September 13, 2025

Popular vote projection 55% ± 5%▼ UCP 40% ± 5% NDP 2% ± 1% ABP 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 13, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 44 seats for a majority 61 [48-75] UCP 26 [12-39] NDP 0 ABP 0 GPA 338Canada Alberta | September 13, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.


50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% UCP <1% NDP <1% Tie <1% ABP Odds of winning | September 13, 2025
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome >99% UCP maj. <1% NDP maj. <1% UCP min. <1% NDP min. Odds of outcome | September 13, 2025

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

338Canada Alberta | Popular Vote Projection

UCP NDP ABP LIB 0% ± 0% UCP 55% ± 5% NDP 40% ± 5% ABP 2% ± 1% GPA 1% ± 1% WIP 0% ± 0% Popular vote projection % 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 September 13, 2025 2024-03-19 UCP 51% NDP 45% ABP 1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 51% NDP 45% ABP 1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 53% NDP 44% ABP 1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 53% NDP 43% ABP 1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 51% NDP 44% ABP 1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 52% NDP 44% ABP 1% 2025-09-13 2024-03-19 UCP 52% NDP 43% ABP 2% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 54% NDP 41% ABP 2% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 54% NDP 41% ABP 2% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 54% NDP 41% ABP 2% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 56% NDP 40% ABP 2% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 55% NDP 40% ABP 2% 2025-09-13

338Canada Alberta | Seat Projection

UCP 61 [48-75] NDP 26 [12-39] Seat projection 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 UCP NDP Majority: 44 seats September 13, 2025 2024-03-19 UCP 56 NDP 31 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 59 NDP 28 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 60 NDP 27 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 60 NDP 27 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 61 NDP 26 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 61 NDP 26 2025-09-13

338Canada Alberta | Odds of Winning the Most Seats

UCP >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 UCP NDP ABP Tie September 13, 2025 2024-03-19 UCP 93% NDP 7% Tie <1% ABP <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 95% NDP 5% Tie <1% ABP <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 98% NDP 2% Tie <1% ABP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 99% NDP 1% Tie <1% ABP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 99% NDP 1% Tie <1% ABP <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP >99% NDP <1% Tie <1% ABP <1% 2025-09-13 2024-03-19 UCP >99% NDP <1% Tie <1% ABP <1% 2024-03-19

338Canada Alberta | Odds of Election Outcome

UCP majority >99% NDP majority <1% NDP minority <1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 UCP majority NDP majority NDP minority September 13, 2025 2024-03-19 UCP majority 95% NDP majority 5% NDP minority <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP majority 98% NDP majority 2% NDP minority <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP majority 99% NDP majority 1% NDP minority <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP majority 99% NDP majority 1% NDP minority <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP majority >99% NDP majority <1% NDP minority <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP majority >99% NDP majority <1% NDP minority <1% 2025-09-13