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Canada

Ottawa West—Nepean



Latest projection: March 25, 2025
LPC safe
Ottawa West—Nepean 53% ± 8%▲ LPC 31% ± 7% CPC 10% ± 4%▼ NDP 4% ± 4%▼ GPC LPC 2021 45.4% 338Canada vote projection | March 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa West—Nepean >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ottawa West—Nepean

LPC 53% ± 8% CPC 31% ± 7% NDP 10% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa West—Nepean 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC March 25, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 45% CPC 34% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 47% CPC 33% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 50% CPC 31% NDP 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 50% CPC 31% NDP 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 51% CPC 31% NDP 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 51% CPC 31% NDP 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 51% CPC 31% NDP 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 51% CPC 31% NDP 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 53% CPC 31% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2025-03-25 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Ottawa West—Nepean

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP March 25, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Ottawa West—Nepean



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 45.8% 45.4% 53% ± 8% CPC 26.1% 27.7% 31% ± 7% NDP 19.5% 20.2% 10% ± 4% GPC 6.4% 2.9% 4% ± 4% PPC 1.3% 3.2% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.