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Canada

Ottawa West—Nepean



Latest projection: December 29, 2024
CPC likely
Ottawa West—Nepean 39% ± 7% CPC 29% ± 6% LPC 24% ± 6% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 45.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 29, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa West—Nepean 97% CPC 3% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 29, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ottawa West—Nepean

LPC 29% ± 6% CPC 39% ± 7% NDP 24% ± 6% GPC 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa West—Nepean 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 29, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 6% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 36% CPC 36% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 36% CPC 36% NDP 21% GPC 6% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 36% CPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 6% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 36% CPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 6% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 35% LPC 35% NDP 22% GPC 6% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 35% LPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 35% LPC 34% NDP 22% GPC 5% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 35% LPC 34% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 35% CPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 36% CPC 34% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 36% CPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 35% CPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 37% LPC 35% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 38% LPC 33% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 38% LPC 32% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 38% LPC 33% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 37% LPC 33% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 37% LPC 33% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 37% LPC 33% NDP 21% GPC 6% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 37% LPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 37% LPC 33% NDP 21% GPC 6% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 38% LPC 32% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 38% LPC 31% NDP 22% GPC 6% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 38% LPC 31% NDP 22% GPC 6% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 39% LPC 29% NDP 24% GPC 5% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 39% LPC 29% NDP 24% GPC 5% 2024-12-29

Odds of winning | Ottawa West—Nepean

LPC 3% CPC 97% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 29, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-12-29

Recent electoral history | Ottawa West—Nepean



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 26.1% 27.7% 39% ± 7% LPC 45.8% 45.4% 29% ± 6% NDP 19.5% 20.2% 24% ± 6% GPC 6.4% 2.9% 5% ± 4% PPC 1.3% 3.2% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.