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Guelph



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Guelph


Liberal Dominique O'Rourke
Conservative Gurvir Khaira
NDP Janice Folk-Dawson
Green Anne-Marie Zajdlik
PPC Jeffrey Swackhammer
Marxist-Leninist Elaine Baetz
Canadian Future Yurii Yavorskyi
Independent Michael Wassilyn

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Guelph 56% ± 8% LPC 25% ± 7% CPC 9% ± 4% NDP 6% ± 5% GPC LPC 2021 41.4% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Guelph >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Guelph

LPC 56% ± 8% CPC 25% ± 7% NDP 9% ± 4% GPC 6% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Guelph 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 41% CPC 28% NDP 15% GPC 12% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 43% CPC 27% NDP 14% GPC 12% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 46% CPC 26% NDP 13% GPC 12% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 46% CPC 26% NDP 13% GPC 12% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 47% CPC 26% NDP 13% GPC 12% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 47% CPC 26% NDP 13% GPC 12% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 47% CPC 26% NDP 13% GPC 12% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 47% CPC 26% NDP 13% GPC 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 50% CPC 26% GPC 11% NDP 11% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 50% CPC 26% GPC 11% NDP 11% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 51% CPC 26% GPC 11% NDP 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 52% CPC 25% GPC 10% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 52% CPC 26% GPC 10% NDP 10% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 52% CPC 26% GPC 10% NDP 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 52% CPC 26% GPC 10% NDP 9% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 54% CPC 27% NDP 9% GPC 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 56% CPC 27% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 57% CPC 26% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 57% CPC 26% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 57% CPC 26% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 57% CPC 26% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 56% CPC 27% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 56% CPC 27% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 57% CPC 26% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 56% CPC 25% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 56% CPC 25% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 56% CPC 25% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 56% CPC 25% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Guelph

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Guelph



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 39.6% 41.4% 56% ± 8% CPC 18.6% 23.4% 25% ± 7% NDP 12.8% 22.0% 9% ± 4% GPC 26.3% 7.8% 6% ± 5% PPC 1.5% 4.7% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.