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Canada

Guelph



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
CPC leaning
Guelph 32% ± 7% CPC 27% ± 6% LPC 24% ± 6% NDP 12% ± 5% GPC 3% ± 3%▲ PPC LPC 2021 41.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Guelph 84% CPC 13%▼ LPC 2% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Guelph

LPC 27% ± 6% CPC 32% ± 7% NDP 24% ± 6% GPC 12% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Guelph 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 31% LPC 30% NDP 23% GPC 14% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 31% LPC 30% NDP 23% GPC 14% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 31% CPC 30% NDP 22% GPC 13% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 31% CPC 30% NDP 23% GPC 14% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 31% CPC 30% NDP 22% GPC 14% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 31% CPC 29% NDP 23% GPC 14% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 30% CPC 29% NDP 24% GPC 14% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 31% CPC 31% NDP 23% GPC 11% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 31% CPC 31% NDP 23% GPC 11% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 31% CPC 31% NDP 23% GPC 11% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 31% LPC 31% NDP 23% GPC 11% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 31% LPC 31% NDP 23% GPC 11% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 30% LPC 30% NDP 24% GPC 11% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 30% LPC 30% NDP 23% GPC 12% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 31% CPC 30% NDP 23% GPC 12% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 32% CPC 29% NDP 23% GPC 12% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 32% CPC 30% NDP 21% GPC 12% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 31% CPC 30% NDP 21% GPC 13% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 32% LPC 31% NDP 21% GPC 13% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 32% LPC 30% NDP 20% GPC 13% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 33% LPC 30% NDP 21% GPC 13% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 33% LPC 29% NDP 21% GPC 12% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 32% LPC 29% NDP 22% GPC 12% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 32% LPC 30% NDP 22% GPC 13% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 32% LPC 30% NDP 22% GPC 13% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 31% LPC 29% NDP 22% GPC 13% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 31% LPC 30% NDP 22% GPC 12% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 31% LPC 30% NDP 22% GPC 12% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 32% LPC 29% NDP 23% GPC 12% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 33% LPC 28% NDP 23% GPC 12% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 32% LPC 27% NDP 24% GPC 12% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 32% LPC 27% NDP 24% GPC 12% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Guelph

LPC 13% CPC 84% NDP 2% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 54% LPC 45% NDP 1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 52% LPC 47% NDP 1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 59% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 58% CPC 41% NDP 1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 65% CPC 34% NDP 1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 56% CPC 42% NDP 2% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 50% CPC 49% NDP 1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 50% LPC 48% NDP 1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 50% LPC 49% NDP 1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 59% CPC 40% NDP 1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 71% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 74% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 68% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 67% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 65% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 73% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 81% LPC 18% NDP 1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 84% LPC 14% NDP 2% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 84% LPC 13% NDP 2% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Guelph



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 39.6% 41.4% 27% ± 6% CPC 18.6% 23.4% 32% ± 7% NDP 12.8% 22.0% 24% ± 6% GPC 26.3% 7.8% 12% ± 5% PPC 1.5% 4.7% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.