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Canada


Jonquière (federal)


MP: Mario Simard (BQ)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

BQ likely hold
Jonquière 42% ± 8% 30% ± 7%▼ 17% ± 5% 7% ± 3% 4% ± 3% BQ 2021 41.72% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Jonquière 98%▲ 2%▼ <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Jonquière

LPC 17% ± 5% CPC 30% ± 7% NDP 7% ± 3% BQ 42% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Jonquière 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP BQ

Odds of winning | Jonquière

LPC <1% CPC 2% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ 98% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Jonquière



2015 2019 2021 Proj. BQ 23.3% 35.6% 41.72% 42% ± 8% CPC 16.9% 20.9% 29.2% 30% ± 7% LPC 28.5% 15.9% 20.88% 17% ± 5% NDP 29.2% 24.6% 5.75% 7% ± 3% GPC 1.4% 2.0% 1.63% 4% ± 3% PPC 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0% ± 0%