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Canada

Kelowna


MP elect: Stephen Fuhr (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Candidates | Kelowna


Liberal Stephen Fuhr
Conservative Tracy Gray*
NDP Trevor McAleese
Green Catriona Wright

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Kelowna 49% ± 7%▲ LPC 47% ± 7% CPC 3% ± 2%▼ NDP LPC 2025 48.8% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kelowna 63%▲ LPC 37%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kelowna

LPC 49% ± 7% CPC 47% ± 7% NDP 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Kelowna 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 58% NDP 19% LPC 16% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 58% NDP 18% LPC 17% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 58% NDP 18% LPC 17% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 57% LPC 18% NDP 18% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 56% LPC 21% NDP 17% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 53% LPC 24% NDP 16% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 53% LPC 26% NDP 14% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 49% LPC 29% NDP 15% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 49% LPC 29% NDP 15% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% LPC 30% NDP 13% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 49% LPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% LPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 49% LPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 49% LPC 37% NDP 8% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 46% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 46% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 45% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 45% LPC 45% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 46% LPC 45% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 46% LPC 45% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 46% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 46% LPC 45% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 46% LPC 46% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 46% LPC 46% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 46% LPC 46% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 5% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 5% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 6% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 47% LPC 47% NDP 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 47% LPC 47% NDP 5% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 47% LPC 47% NDP 5% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 47% LPC 47% NDP 5% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 47% LPC 47% NDP 5% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 46% LPC 46% NDP 7% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Kelowna

LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Kelowna



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 49% ± 7% 32.6% 26.2% 48.8% CPC 47% ± 7% 43.0% 42.3% 46.9% NDP 3% ± 2% 14.5% 21.2% 3.3% GPC 1% ± 1% 7.6% 3.0% 1.0% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.9% 7.3% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.