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Kelowna



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Candidates | Kelowna


Liberal Stephen Fuhr
Conservative Tracy Gray*
NDP Trevor McAleese
Green Catriona Wright

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Kelowna 47% ± 8%▲ CPC 46% ± 8% LPC 6% ± 4% NDP CPC 2021 42.3% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kelowna 56%▲ CPC 44%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kelowna

LPC 46% ± 8% CPC 47% ± 8% NDP 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Kelowna 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 49% LPC 29% NDP 15% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% LPC 30% NDP 13% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 49% LPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% LPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 49% LPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 49% LPC 37% NDP 8% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 46% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 46% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 45% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 45% LPC 45% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 46% LPC 45% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 46% LPC 45% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 46% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 46% LPC 45% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 46% LPC 46% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 46% LPC 46% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 46% LPC 46% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Kelowna

LPC 44% CPC 56% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Kelowna



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 43.0% 42.3% 47% ± 8% LPC 32.6% 26.2% 46% ± 8% NDP 14.5% 21.2% 6% ± 4% GPC 7.6% 3.0% 2% ± 2% PPC 1.9% 7.3% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.