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Canada


Manicouagan (federal)


MP: Marilène Gill (BQ)


Latest projection: April 14, 2024

BQ safe hold
Manicouagan 52% ± 8%▼ 30% ± 7%▲ 12% ± 4%▲ 5% ± 3% BQ 2021 52.66% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Manicouagan >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | April 14, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Manicouagan

LPC 12% ± 4% CPC 30% ± 7% NDP 5% ± 3% BQ 52% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Manicouagan 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP BQ

Odds of winning | Manicouagan

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Manicouagan



2015 2019 2021 Proj. BQ 41.3% 53.9% 52.66% 52% ± 8% CPC 10.3% 19.2% 21.77% 30% ± 7% LPC 29.4% 19.3% 18.7% 12% ± 4% NDP 17.5% 3.7% 4.33% 5% ± 3% GPC 1.6% 3.2% 0.0% 1% ± 1% PPC 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0% ± 0%