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Canada

Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière


Liberal Charles McKaig
Conservative Luc Berthold*
NDP Gabriel D'Astous
Bloc Quebecois Rejean Hurteau
PPC Marek Spacek
Christian Heritage Yves Gilbert

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière 58% ± 8%▼ CPC 22% ± 6% LPC 13% ± 5%▲ BQ CPC 2021 56.7% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière

LPC 22% ± 6% CPC 58% ± 8% BQ 13% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC BQ April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 60% BQ 18% LPC 12% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 59% BQ 18% LPC 12% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 58% BQ 17% LPC 14% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 58% BQ 17% LPC 14% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 58% BQ 17% LPC 14% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 58% BQ 17% LPC 14% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 58% BQ 18% LPC 14% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 58% BQ 18% LPC 14% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 56% BQ 17% LPC 16% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 56% BQ 17% LPC 16% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 57% BQ 17% LPC 17% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 57% LPC 17% BQ 17% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 58% LPC 17% BQ 16% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 58% LPC 17% BQ 16% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 58% LPC 17% BQ 16% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 60% LPC 18% BQ 14% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 60% LPC 18% BQ 14% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 60% LPC 18% BQ 14% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 60% LPC 18% BQ 14% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 60% LPC 19% BQ 14% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 60% LPC 19% BQ 14% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 60% LPC 19% BQ 13% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 60% LPC 18% BQ 13% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 61% LPC 18% BQ 13% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 62% LPC 18% BQ 13% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 63% LPC 18% BQ 13% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 63% LPC 18% BQ 13% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 63% LPC 18% BQ 13% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 64% LPC 17% BQ 12% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 62% LPC 19% BQ 12% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 59% LPC 22% BQ 12% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 58% LPC 22% BQ 13% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 50.1% 56.7% 58% ± 8% LPC 15.2% 13.5% 22% ± 6% BQ 25.2% 19.6% 13% ± 5% NDP 4.1% 3.1% 2% ± 2% PPC 1.8% 3.5% 2% ± 3% GPC 2.6% 1.3% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.