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Canada

Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière


MP: Luc Berthold (CPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
CPC safe

Recent electoral history | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 59% ± 8% 50.1% 56.7% 58.8% LPC 22% ± 6% 15.2% 13.5% 21.5% BQ 16% ± 5% 25.2% 19.6% 16.4% NDP 2% ± 2% 4.1% 3.1% 1.8% PPC 1% ± 2% 1.8% 3.5% 1.2% GPC 0% ± 0% 2.6% 1.3% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.



Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière 59% ± 8% CPC 22% ± 6% LPC 16% ± 5% BQ CPC 2025 58.8% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière

LPC 22% ± 6% CPC 59% ± 8% BQ 16% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 62% BQ 22% LPC 6% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 63% BQ 21% LPC 6% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 63% BQ 21% LPC 6% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 62% BQ 22% LPC 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 61% BQ 21% LPC 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 61% BQ 20% LPC 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 62% BQ 20% LPC 9% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 59% BQ 18% LPC 11% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 60% BQ 18% LPC 12% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 59% BQ 18% LPC 12% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 58% BQ 17% LPC 14% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 58% BQ 17% LPC 14% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 58% BQ 17% LPC 14% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 58% BQ 17% LPC 14% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 58% BQ 18% LPC 14% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 58% BQ 18% LPC 14% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 56% BQ 17% LPC 16% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 56% BQ 17% LPC 16% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 57% BQ 17% LPC 17% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 57% LPC 17% BQ 17% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 58% LPC 17% BQ 16% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 58% LPC 17% BQ 16% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 58% LPC 17% BQ 16% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 60% LPC 18% BQ 14% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 60% LPC 18% BQ 14% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 60% LPC 18% BQ 14% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 60% LPC 18% BQ 14% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 60% LPC 19% BQ 14% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 60% LPC 19% BQ 14% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 60% LPC 19% BQ 13% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 60% LPC 18% BQ 13% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 61% LPC 18% BQ 13% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 62% LPC 18% BQ 13% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 63% LPC 18% BQ 13% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 63% LPC 18% BQ 13% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 63% LPC 18% BQ 13% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 64% LPC 17% BQ 12% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 62% LPC 19% BQ 12% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 59% LPC 22% BQ 12% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 58% LPC 22% BQ 13% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 59% LPC 22% BQ 13% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 59% LPC 22% BQ 13% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 59% LPC 22% BQ 13% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 59% LPC 21% BQ 13% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 59% LPC 21% BQ 13% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 60% LPC 20% BQ 13% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 61% LPC 20% BQ 13% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 61% LPC 20% BQ 13% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 62% LPC 19% BQ 12% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 62% LPC 19% BQ 13% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 62% LPC 20% BQ 12% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 59% LPC 21% BQ 16% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 59% LPC 21% BQ 16% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 59% LPC 21% BQ 16% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 59% LPC 22% BQ 16% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 59% LPC 22% BQ 16% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader