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Canada

Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte


MP elect: Doug Shipley (CPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte


Liberal Rose Zacharias
Conservative Doug Shipley*
NDP Gabriela Trujillo
Green Greg Taylor
Communist Michael Speers

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 52% ± 6% CPC 44% ± 6%▲ LPC CPC 2025 51.7% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 91%▼ CPC 9%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

LPC 44% ± 6% CPC 52% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 61% LPC 16% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 61% LPC 17% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 60% LPC 17% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 57% LPC 21% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 56% LPC 23% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 55% LPC 26% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 54% LPC 28% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 53% LPC 30% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 53% LPC 29% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 52% LPC 31% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 51% LPC 33% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 51% LPC 34% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 50% LPC 34% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 51% LPC 34% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 50% LPC 34% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 50% LPC 34% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 50% LPC 37% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 50% LPC 37% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 50% LPC 37% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 50% LPC 38% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 50% LPC 38% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 50% LPC 38% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 51% LPC 38% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 51% LPC 39% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 51% LPC 39% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 49% LPC 41% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 52% LPC 43% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 52% LPC 43% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 52% LPC 43% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 52% LPC 44% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

LPC 9% CPC 91% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 52% ± 6% 40.3% 45.8% 51.7% LPC 44% ± 6% 30.7% 30.4% 44.4% NDP 2% ± 2% 14.4% 16.6% 2.4% GPC 1% ± 1% 12.8% 0.2% 1.4% IND 0% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.8% 6.9% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.