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Canada


Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte (federal)


MP: Doug Shipley (CPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

CPC safe hold
Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte 59% ± 7% 19% ± 5% 17% ± 5%▼ 4% ± 4% CPC 2021 45.09% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte

LPC 17% ± 5% CPC 59% ± 7% NDP 19% ± 5% PPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP PPC

Odds of winning | Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 41.7% 39.0% 45.09% 59% ± 7% LPC 41.6% 31.2% 30.9% 17% ± 5% NDP 10.3% 14.8% 17.06% 19% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.8% 6.95% 4% ± 4% GPC 5.2% 13.1% 0.0% 1% ± 1%