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Canada

Nanaimo—Ladysmith



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
CPC likely
Nanaimo—Ladysmith 37% ± 7% CPC 27% ± 6% NDP 25% ± 7% GPC 8% ± 3% LPC NDP 2021 29.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nanaimo—Ladysmith 97%▼ CPC 2% NDP 1% GPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Nanaimo—Ladysmith

LPC 8% ± 3% CPC 37% ± 7% NDP 27% ± 6% GPC 25% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Nanaimo—Ladysmith 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 41% GPC 27% NDP 22% LPC 7% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 41% GPC 27% NDP 23% LPC 7% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 40% GPC 26% NDP 23% LPC 8% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 40% GPC 26% NDP 24% LPC 8% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 39% GPC 26% NDP 24% LPC 8% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 39% GPC 26% NDP 24% LPC 8% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 38% NDP 26% GPC 25% LPC 8% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 37% GPC 26% NDP 25% LPC 8% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 37% GPC 26% NDP 25% LPC 8% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 37% GPC 26% NDP 25% LPC 8% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 37% GPC 26% NDP 25% LPC 8% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 37% GPC 26% NDP 25% LPC 8% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 37% NDP 26% GPC 25% LPC 8% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 38% NDP 26% GPC 25% LPC 8% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 37% NDP 26% GPC 25% LPC 8% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 37% GPC 26% NDP 25% LPC 8% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 38% GPC 26% NDP 24% LPC 8% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 38% GPC 26% NDP 24% LPC 9% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 37% GPC 26% NDP 24% LPC 9% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 37% GPC 26% NDP 24% LPC 9% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 37% GPC 25% NDP 25% LPC 9% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 38% NDP 26% GPC 25% LPC 8% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 37% NDP 26% GPC 25% LPC 8% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 36% NDP 26% GPC 26% LPC 9% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 36% NDP 26% GPC 26% LPC 9% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 36% NDP 26% GPC 26% LPC 9% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 37% NDP 26% GPC 25% LPC 9% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 37% NDP 26% GPC 25% LPC 9% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 37% NDP 26% GPC 25% LPC 8% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 38% NDP 26% GPC 25% LPC 8% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 37% NDP 27% GPC 25% LPC 8% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 37% NDP 27% GPC 25% LPC 8% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Nanaimo—Ladysmith

LPC <1% CPC 97% NDP 2% GPC 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC >99% GPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 99% GPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 99% GPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 99% GPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 99% GPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 99% GPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 99% GPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 98% GPC 1% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 98% GPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 98% GPC 1% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 98% GPC 2% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 98% GPC 2% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 98% GPC 1% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 99% GPC 1% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 98% GPC 1% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 98% GPC 1% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 99% GPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 98% GPC 2% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 98% GPC 2% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 98% GPC 2% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 99% GPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 99% GPC 1% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 98% GPC 1% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 96% GPC 2% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 95% GPC 3% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 96% GPC 3% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 98% NDP 1% GPC 1% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 98% GPC 1% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 98% GPC 1% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 98% GPC 1% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 98% NDP 2% GPC 1% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 97% NDP 2% GPC 1% LPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Nanaimo—Ladysmith



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 24.3% 29.4% 27% ± 6% CPC 25.4% 26.6% 37% ± 7% GPC 34.7% 25.8% 25% ± 7% LPC 13.3% 13.2% 8% ± 3% PPC 1.4% 5.0% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.