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Canada

Nanaimo—Ladysmith



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
Toss up CPC/GPC

Candidates | Nanaimo—Ladysmith


Liberal Michelle Corfield
Conservative Tamara Kronis
NDP Lisa Marie Barron*
Green Paul Manly
PPC Stephen Welton

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Nanaimo—Ladysmith 30% ± 7%▲ CPC 27% ± 8%▼ GPC 23% ± 6% LPC 18% ± 5% NDP NDP 2021 29.4% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nanaimo—Ladysmith 64%▲ CPC 33%▼ GPC 3% LPC Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Nanaimo—Ladysmith

LPC 23% ± 6% CPC 30% ± 7% NDP 18% ± 5% GPC 27% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Nanaimo—Ladysmith 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 35% GPC 24% NDP 23% LPC 15% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 35% GPC 23% NDP 22% LPC 16% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 36% GPC 23% LPC 21% NDP 18% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 36% GPC 22% LPC 21% NDP 19% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 36% GPC 22% LPC 22% NDP 19% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 36% GPC 22% LPC 22% NDP 18% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 36% LPC 22% GPC 22% NDP 18% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 36% LPC 22% GPC 22% NDP 18% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 35% LPC 23% GPC 21% NDP 19% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 35% LPC 23% GPC 21% NDP 19% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 35% LPC 23% GPC 21% NDP 19% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 35% NDP 21% LPC 21% GPC 21% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 35% NDP 21% LPC 21% GPC 21% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 35% NDP 22% LPC 21% GPC 20% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 35% NDP 21% LPC 21% GPC 20% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 34% NDP 22% LPC 22% GPC 20% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 34% NDP 23% LPC 22% GPC 20% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 34% NDP 22% LPC 22% GPC 20% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 34% NDP 23% LPC 22% GPC 19% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 34% NDP 23% LPC 22% GPC 19% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 35% NDP 22% LPC 22% GPC 19% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 35% NDP 22% LPC 22% GPC 20% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 34% LPC 22% NDP 21% GPC 21% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 35% GPC 21% LPC 21% NDP 21% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 35% GPC 22% LPC 21% NDP 21% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 33% GPC 26% LPC 21% NDP 18% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 30% GPC 28% LPC 24% NDP 18% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 29% GPC 28% LPC 24% NDP 18% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 29% GPC 28% LPC 23% NDP 18% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 30% GPC 27% LPC 23% NDP 18% 2025-04-15 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Nanaimo—Ladysmith

LPC 3% CPC 64% NDP <1% GPC 33% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 97% GPC 2% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 99% GPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 99% GPC 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 99% GPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% GPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% GPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% GPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% GPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 99% LPC 1% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 99% LPC 1% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 99% LPC 1% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% GPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% GPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% GPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% GPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% GPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% GPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% GPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% GPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 99% NDP <1% LPC <1% GPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% GPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 99% GPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% GPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 99% GPC 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 88% GPC 11% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 62% GPC 34% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 59% GPC 37% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 60% GPC 37% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 64% GPC 33% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Nanaimo—Ladysmith



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 25.4% 26.6% 30% ± 7% GPC 34.7% 25.8% 27% ± 8% LPC 13.3% 13.2% 23% ± 6% NDP 24.3% 29.4% 18% ± 5% PPC 1.4% 5.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.