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Canada

Nanaimo—Ladysmith


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
CPC likely
Nanaimo—Ladysmith 37% ± 7% CPC 26% ± 7% GPC 25% ± 6% NDP 8% ± 4% LPC 3% ± 4% PPC NDP 2021 29.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nanaimo—Ladysmith 98% CPC 2%▲ GPC 1% NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Nanaimo—Ladysmith

LPC 8% ± 4% CPC 37% ± 7% NDP 25% ± 6% GPC 26% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Nanaimo—Ladysmith 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 41% GPC 27% NDP 22% LPC 7% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 41% GPC 27% NDP 23% LPC 7% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 40% GPC 26% NDP 23% LPC 8% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 40% GPC 26% NDP 24% LPC 8% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 39% GPC 26% NDP 24% LPC 8% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 39% GPC 26% NDP 24% LPC 8% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 38% NDP 26% GPC 25% LPC 8% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 37% GPC 26% NDP 25% LPC 8% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 37% GPC 26% NDP 25% LPC 8% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 37% GPC 26% NDP 25% LPC 8% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 37% GPC 26% NDP 25% LPC 8% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Nanaimo—Ladysmith

LPC <1% CPC 98% NDP 1% GPC 2% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC >99% GPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 99% GPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 99% GPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 99% GPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 99% GPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 99% GPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 99% GPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 98% GPC 1% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 98% GPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 98% GPC 1% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 98% GPC 2% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Nanaimo—Ladysmith



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 24.3% 29.4% 25% ± 6% CPC 25.4% 26.6% 37% ± 7% GPC 34.7% 25.8% 26% ± 7% LPC 13.3% 13.2% 8% ± 4% PPC 1.4% 5.0% 3% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.