logo
logo
Canada
Canada flag

Nanaimo—Ladysmith

Latest update: January 25, 2026
C
MP: Tamara Kronis
British Columbia
CPC likely
Projection — Nanaimo—Ladysmith → Demographic data — Nanaimo—Ladysmith → Regional projection — British Columbia → All federal districts → Federal projection map → Federal polls → Back to 338Canada home → Riding roulette! →

Recent electoral history | Nanaimo—Ladysmith


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 32% ± 6% 25.4% 26.6% 35.5% LPC 24% ± 5% 13.3% 13.2% 27.8% GPC 22% ± 7% 34.7% 25.8% 18.1% NDP 21% ± 6% 24.3% 29.4% 18.3% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.4% 5.0% 0.4%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Canada flag

338Canada Nanaimo—Ladysmith projection

Latest update: January 25, 2026

Nanaimo—Ladysmith 26% 38% 32% ± 6% CPC 19% 29% 24% ± 5% ▲ LPC 16% 29% 22% ± 7% GPC 16% 27% 21% ± 6% ▼ NDP CPC 2025 35.5% 338Canada vote projection | January 25, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nanaimo—Ladysmith 97% CPC 2%▲ LPC 1% GPC <1%▼ NDP Odds of winning | January 25, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Nanaimo—Ladysmith

LPC 24% ± 5% CPC 32% ± 6% NDP 21% ± 6% GPC 22% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Nanaimo—Ladysmith 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC January 25, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 33% GPC 26% LPC 21% NDP 19% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 33% GPC 26% LPC 21% NDP 19% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 32% GPC 25% LPC 22% NDP 20% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 35% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 18% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 35% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 18% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 35% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 18% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 35% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 18% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 35% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 18% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 36% LPC 27% NDP 18% GPC 18% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 36% LPC 27% NDP 19% GPC 18% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 36% LPC 27% NDP 19% GPC 18% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 36% LPC 27% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 35% LPC 27% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 34% LPC 28% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 34% LPC 28% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 34% LPC 28% GPC 20% NDP 18% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 33% LPC 28% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 33% LPC 27% GPC 20% NDP 20% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 33% LPC 28% GPC 20% NDP 19% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 33% LPC 27% GPC 20% NDP 19% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 33% LPC 28% GPC 20% NDP 19% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 34% LPC 27% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 34% LPC 28% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 34% LPC 28% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 35% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 18% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 35% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 18% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 34% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 18% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 34% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 19% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 34% LPC 28% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 34% LPC 28% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 34% LPC 28% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 35% LPC 27% GPC 19% NDP 18% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 36% LPC 27% GPC 19% NDP 18% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 36% LPC 27% GPC 19% NDP 18% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 35% LPC 25% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 35% LPC 25% GPC 20% NDP 19% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 35% LPC 25% GPC 20% NDP 20% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 33% LPC 23% NDP 22% GPC 21% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 33% LPC 24% NDP 22% GPC 21% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 32% LPC 24% NDP 22% GPC 22% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 32% LPC 23% NDP 22% GPC 22% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 32% LPC 24% GPC 22% NDP 21% 2026-01-25

Odds of winning | Nanaimo—Ladysmith

LPC 2% CPC 97% NDP <1% GPC 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC January 25, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 90% GPC 10% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 91% GPC 9% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 92% GPC 8% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% GPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% GPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% GPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% GPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 94% LPC 6% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% GPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% GPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% GPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% GPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 95% LPC 5% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 92% LPC 8% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 90% LPC 10% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 87% LPC 13% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 84% LPC 16% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 88% LPC 12% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 85% LPC 14% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 89% LPC 11% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 88% LPC 11% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 95% LPC 5% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 92% LPC 8% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 91% LPC 9% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 95% LPC 5% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% GPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 93% LPC 7% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 91% LPC 9% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 89% LPC 11% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 91% LPC 9% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 94% LPC 6% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 96% LPC 4% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 98% LPC 2% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 98% LPC 2% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 99% LPC 1% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 99% LPC 1% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 99% LPC 1% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 98% LPC 1% GPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 98% LPC 1% GPC 1% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 97% LPC 1% GPC 1% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 97% LPC 1% GPC 1% NDP 1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 97% LPC 2% GPC 1% NDP <1% 2026-01-25


Flag of Canada

Demographic data | Nanaimo—Ladysmith

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 95.9% English 0.7% Mandarin 0.6% Punjabi 0.3% Korean 0.3% French 0.3% Tagalog 0.3% VietnameseNanaimo—LadysmithSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 8.8% No diploma 28.5% High school 10.5% Trade 20.4% College / Cégep 5.4% Some university 16.7% Bachelor's 9.6% PostgraduateNanaimo—LadysmithSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 89.4% Not visible minority 10.6% Visible minority 2.4% South Asian 2.0% Chinese 1.3% Filipino 1.0% Black 0.9% Southeast Asian 0.7% JapaneseNanaimo—LadysmithSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 63.6% No Religion 8.9% Catholic 7.3% Christian (n.o.s.) 3.9% United Church 3.8% Anglican 1.6% Other Christian 1.3% Other Religions 1.1% BaptistNanaimo—LadysmithSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 70.2% Owner 29.4% Renter 0.4% Community housingNanaimo—LadysmithSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 53.9% Employed 41.2% Not in labour force 4.8% UnemployedNanaimo—LadysmithSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 90.8% Non-Indigenous 9.2% Indigenous identity 5.5% First Nations 3.3% Metis 0.2% Multiple 0.2% Others 0.1% InukNanaimo—LadysmithSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 87.4% Car / truck / van 5.2% Walking 3.3% Public transit 2.7% Other 1.3% BicycleNanaimo—LadysmithSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.