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Nanaimo—Ladysmith

Latest update: January 11, 2026
C
MP: Tamara Kronis
British Columbia
CPC likely

Recent electoral history | Nanaimo—Ladysmith


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 32% ± 6% 25.4% 26.6% 35.5% LPC 24% ± 5% 13.3% 13.2% 27.8% NDP 22% ± 6% 24.3% 29.4% 18.3% GPC 22% ± 7% 34.7% 25.8% 18.1% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.4% 5.0% 0.4%

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338Canada Nanaimo—Ladysmith projection

Latest update: January 11, 2026

338Canada projection for Nanaimo—Ladysmith


Nanaimo—Ladysmith 26% 39% 32% ± 6% CPC 18% 29% 24% ± 5% LPC 16% 28% 22% ± 6% NDP 15% 28% 22% ± 7% GPC CPC 2025 35.5% 338Canada vote projection | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nanaimo—Ladysmith 97%▼ CPC 1% LPC 1% GPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Nanaimo—Ladysmith

LPC 24% ± 5% CPC 32% ± 6% NDP 22% ± 6% GPC 22% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Nanaimo—Ladysmith 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 33% GPC 26% LPC 21% NDP 19% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 33% GPC 26% LPC 21% NDP 19% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 32% GPC 25% LPC 22% NDP 20% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 35% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 18% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 35% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 18% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 35% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 18% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 35% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 18% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 35% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 18% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 36% LPC 27% NDP 18% GPC 18% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 36% LPC 27% NDP 19% GPC 18% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 36% LPC 27% NDP 19% GPC 18% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 36% LPC 27% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 35% LPC 27% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 34% LPC 28% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 34% LPC 28% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 34% LPC 28% GPC 20% NDP 18% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 33% LPC 28% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 33% LPC 27% GPC 20% NDP 20% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 33% LPC 28% GPC 20% NDP 19% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 33% LPC 27% GPC 20% NDP 19% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 33% LPC 28% GPC 20% NDP 19% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 34% LPC 27% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 34% LPC 28% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 34% LPC 28% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 35% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 18% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 35% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 18% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 34% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 18% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 34% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 19% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 34% LPC 28% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 34% LPC 28% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 34% LPC 28% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 35% LPC 27% GPC 19% NDP 18% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 36% LPC 27% GPC 19% NDP 18% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 36% LPC 27% GPC 19% NDP 18% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 35% LPC 25% GPC 19% NDP 19% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 35% LPC 25% GPC 20% NDP 19% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 35% LPC 25% GPC 20% NDP 20% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 33% LPC 23% NDP 22% GPC 21% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 33% LPC 24% NDP 22% GPC 21% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 32% LPC 24% NDP 22% GPC 22% 2026-01-11

Odds of winning | Nanaimo—Ladysmith

LPC 1% CPC 97% NDP <1% GPC 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 90% GPC 10% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 91% GPC 9% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 92% GPC 8% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% GPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% GPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% GPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% GPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 94% LPC 6% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% GPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% GPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% GPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% GPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 95% LPC 5% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 92% LPC 8% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 90% LPC 10% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 87% LPC 13% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 84% LPC 16% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 88% LPC 12% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 85% LPC 14% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 89% LPC 11% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 88% LPC 11% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 95% LPC 5% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 92% LPC 8% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 91% LPC 9% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 95% LPC 5% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% GPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 93% LPC 7% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 91% LPC 9% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 89% LPC 11% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 91% LPC 9% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 94% LPC 6% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 96% LPC 4% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 98% LPC 2% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 98% LPC 2% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 99% LPC 1% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 99% LPC 1% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 99% LPC 1% GPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 98% LPC 1% GPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 98% LPC 1% GPC 1% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 97% LPC 1% GPC 1% NDP <1% 2026-01-11