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Canada


Mirabel (federal)


MP: Jean-Denis Garon (BQ)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

BQ safe hold
Mirabel 47% ± 7%▲ 18% ± 5% 16% ± 5%▼ 11% ± 4% 5% ± 4% 3% ± 3% BQ 2021 46.41% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Mirabel >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Mirabel

LPC 16% ± 5% CPC 18% ± 5% NDP 11% ± 4% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 47% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Mirabel 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Mirabel

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Mirabel



2015 2019 2021 Proj. BQ 31.5% 51.1% 46.41% 47% ± 7% LPC 26.1% 24.9% 23.52% 16% ± 5% CPC 10.1% 9.1% 13.43% 18% ± 5% NDP 30.1% 8.0% 8.4% 11% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 1.0% 4.11% 3% ± 3% GPC 2.2% 5.4% 2.24% 5% ± 4%