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Canada

Mount Royal



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
Mount Royal 39% ± 8%▲ LPC 37% ± 8%▼ CPC 12% ± 5%▲ NDP 5% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 3% BQ LPC 2021 57.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mount Royal 62%▲ LPC 38%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Mount Royal

LPC 39% ± 8% CPC 37% ± 8% NDP 12% ± 5% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Mount Royal 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 8% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 51% CPC 29% NDP 8% BQ 5% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 53% CPC 28% NDP 8% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 52% CPC 29% NDP 8% GPC 4% BQ 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 50% CPC 31% NDP 8% GPC 4% BQ 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 51% CPC 31% NDP 8% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 45% CPC 35% NDP 9% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 43% CPC 36% NDP 9% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 43% CPC 36% NDP 9% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 43% CPC 36% NDP 9% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 44% CPC 35% NDP 9% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 44% CPC 35% NDP 9% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 45% CPC 34% NDP 9% GPC 4% BQ 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 45% CPC 34% NDP 9% GPC 4% BQ 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 9% GPC 4% BQ 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 43% CPC 36% NDP 9% GPC 4% BQ 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 45% CPC 35% NDP 9% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 45% CPC 35% NDP 9% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 44% CPC 35% NDP 9% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 43% CPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 41% CPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 41% CPC 36% NDP 11% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 42% CPC 36% NDP 11% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 43% CPC 35% NDP 11% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 43% CPC 34% NDP 10% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 43% CPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 42% CPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 10% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 40% CPC 38% NDP 10% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 39% CPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 38% CPC 38% NDP 11% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 39% CPC 37% NDP 12% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Mount Royal

LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Mount Royal



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 56.1% 57.4% 39% ± 8% CPC 24.3% 24.1% 37% ± 8% NDP 8.7% 8.8% 12% ± 5% BQ 4.1% 4.1% 4% ± 3% GPC 5.7% 2.7% 5% ± 4% PPC 0.8% 2.6% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.