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Canada

Mount Royal


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
LPC likely
Mount Royal 44% ± 8%▲ LPC 35% ± 8%▼ CPC 9% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 3% BQ LPC 2021 57.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mount Royal 91%▲ LPC 9%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Mount Royal

LPC 44% ± 8% CPC 35% ± 8% NDP 9% ± 4% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Mount Royal 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 8% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 51% CPC 29% NDP 8% BQ 5% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 53% CPC 28% NDP 8% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 52% CPC 29% NDP 8% GPC 4% BQ 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 50% CPC 31% NDP 8% GPC 4% BQ 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 51% CPC 31% NDP 8% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 45% CPC 35% NDP 9% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 43% CPC 36% NDP 9% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 43% CPC 36% NDP 9% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 43% CPC 36% NDP 9% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 44% CPC 35% NDP 9% GPC 5% BQ 4% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Mount Royal

LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Mount Royal



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 56.1% 57.4% 44% ± 8% CPC 24.3% 24.1% 35% ± 8% NDP 8.7% 8.8% 9% ± 4% BQ 4.1% 4.1% 4% ± 3% GPC 5.7% 2.7% 5% ± 4% PPC 0.8% 2.6% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.