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Canada

Alfred-Pellan



Latest projection: March 16, 2025
LPC safe
Alfred-Pellan 46% ± 8%▲ LPC 25% ± 6% BQ 19% ± 5% CPC 6% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 2% GPC LPC 2021 47.7% 338Canada vote projection | March 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Alfred-Pellan >99% LPC <1% BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | March 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Alfred-Pellan

LPC 46% ± 8% CPC 19% ± 5% NDP 6% ± 4% BQ 25% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Alfred-Pellan 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 LPC 34% BQ 31% CPC 18% NDP 10% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 35% BQ 31% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 35% BQ 31% CPC 17% NDP 9% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 35% BQ 32% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 35% BQ 32% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 34% BQ 32% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 33% BQ 32% CPC 19% NDP 9% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 32% BQ 32% CPC 20% NDP 9% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 33% LPC 32% CPC 19% NDP 10% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 33% LPC 31% CPC 19% NDP 10% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 BQ 33% LPC 31% CPC 21% NDP 10% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 BQ 33% LPC 31% CPC 21% NDP 10% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 BQ 34% LPC 30% CPC 21% NDP 9% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 BQ 34% LPC 30% CPC 22% NDP 9% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 34% LPC 30% CPC 22% NDP 9% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 33% LPC 30% CPC 22% NDP 9% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 33% LPC 31% CPC 21% NDP 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 35% BQ 30% CPC 20% NDP 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 38% BQ 29% CPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 40% BQ 28% CPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 43% BQ 26% CPC 19% NDP 6% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 44% BQ 25% CPC 19% NDP 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 46% BQ 25% CPC 19% NDP 6% 2025-03-16 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Alfred-Pellan

LPC >99% NDP <1% BQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 LPC 75% BQ 25% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 77% BQ 23% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 78% BQ 22% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 74% BQ 26% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 67% BQ 33% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 67% BQ 33% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 54% BQ 46% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 55% BQ 45% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 BQ 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 BQ 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 BQ 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 BQ 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 83% BQ 17% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Alfred-Pellan



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 47.5% 47.7% 46% ± 8% BQ 29.3% 26.6% 25% ± 6% CPC 10.5% 13.3% 19% ± 5% NDP 7.6% 7.8% 6% ± 4% GPC 3.7% 1.7% 3% ± 2% PPC 0.9% 0.3% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.