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Canada

Alfred-Pellan



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up LPC/BQ
Alfred-Pellan 33% ± 7% BQ 31% ± 7%▼ LPC 19% ± 5% CPC 10% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 47.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Alfred-Pellan 62%▲ BQ 38%▼ LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Alfred-Pellan

LPC 31% ± 7% CPC 19% ± 5% NDP 10% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 3% BQ 33% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Alfred-Pellan 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 42% BQ 27% CPC 17% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 41% BQ 29% CPC 16% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 43% BQ 28% CPC 16% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 44% BQ 27% CPC 17% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 44% BQ 26% CPC 17% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 44% BQ 25% CPC 17% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 40% BQ 26% CPC 20% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 39% BQ 27% CPC 19% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 39% BQ 27% CPC 19% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 39% BQ 27% CPC 19% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 39% BQ 27% CPC 19% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 39% BQ 27% CPC 19% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 41% BQ 26% CPC 18% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 41% BQ 26% CPC 18% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 40% BQ 25% CPC 19% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 41% BQ 25% CPC 19% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 42% BQ 24% CPC 19% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 42% BQ 25% CPC 18% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 41% BQ 25% CPC 18% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 36% BQ 30% CPC 19% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 34% BQ 31% CPC 19% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 34% BQ 31% CPC 19% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 34% BQ 31% CPC 18% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 35% BQ 31% CPC 18% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 35% BQ 31% CPC 17% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 35% BQ 32% CPC 18% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 35% BQ 32% CPC 18% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 34% BQ 32% CPC 18% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 33% BQ 32% CPC 19% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 32% BQ 32% CPC 20% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 33% LPC 32% CPC 19% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 33% LPC 31% CPC 19% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Alfred-Pellan

LPC 38% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 62% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 99% BQ 1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 83% BQ 17% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 75% BQ 25% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 72% BQ 28% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 75% BQ 25% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 77% BQ 23% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 78% BQ 22% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 74% BQ 26% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 67% BQ 33% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 67% BQ 33% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 54% BQ 46% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 55% BQ 45% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 62% LPC 38% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Alfred-Pellan



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 47.5% 47.7% 31% ± 7% BQ 29.3% 26.6% 33% ± 7% CPC 10.5% 13.3% 19% ± 5% NDP 7.6% 7.8% 10% ± 4% GPC 3.7% 1.7% 3% ± 3% PPC 0.9% 0.3% 0% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.