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Canada


Alfred-Pellan (federal)


MP: Angelo Iacono (LPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

LPC likely hold
Alfred-Pellan 40% ± 7% 27% ± 6% 18% ± 5% 10% ± 4% 5% ± 4% LPC 2021 47.83% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Alfred-Pellan 99% 1% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Alfred-Pellan

LPC 40% ± 7% CPC 18% ± 5% NDP 10% ± 4% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 27% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Alfred-Pellan 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Alfred-Pellan

LPC 99% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Alfred-Pellan



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 44.5% 47.9% 47.83% 40% ± 7% BQ 17.8% 28.6% 26.14% 27% ± 6% CPC 11.3% 10.9% 13.63% 18% ± 5% NDP 24.0% 7.6% 7.7% 10% ± 4% GPC 2.0% 3.6% 1.83% 5% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0% ± 0% IND 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0% ± 0%