logo
Canada


Hamilton Mountain


Latest projection: May 19, 2024
Toss up CPC/NDP
Note: The terms "hold" and "gain" are used to compare current projections with transposed 2021 results onto the new electoral map.
Hamilton Mountain 34% ± 7% CPC 33% ± 7% NDP 26% ± 6% LPC 4% ± 3% GPC 3% ± 4% PPC LPC 2021 34.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 19, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton Mountain 53%▲ CPC 46%▼ NDP 1% LPC Odds of winning | May 19, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hamilton Mountain

LPC 26% ± 6% CPC 34% ± 7% NDP 33% ± 7% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton Mountain 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC May 19, 2024

Odds of winning | Hamilton Mountain

LPC 1% CPC 53% NDP 46% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP May 19, 2024

Recent electoral history | Hamilton Mountain



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 31.1% 34.5% 26% ± 6% NDP 35.1% 31.6% 33% ± 7% CPC 25.9% 25.0% 34% ± 7% PPC 1.4% 6.3% 3% ± 4% GPC 5.8% 2.0% 4% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.