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Canada

Hamilton Mountain



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up CPC/NDP
Hamilton Mountain 35% ± 7% CPC 33% ± 7% NDP 23% ± 6% LPC 4% ± 3% GPC 3% ± 4% PPC LPC 2021 34.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton Mountain 60%▼ CPC 40%▲ NDP <1% LPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hamilton Mountain

LPC 23% ± 6% CPC 35% ± 7% NDP 33% ± 7% GPC 4% ± 3% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton Mountain 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 34% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 34% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 33% NDP 33% LPC 27% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 33% CPC 33% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 33% CPC 33% LPC 27% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 33% CPC 32% LPC 27% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 34% CPC 32% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 33% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 33% NDP 32% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 33% NDP 32% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 33% NDP 32% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 33% NDP 32% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP 33% CPC 33% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP 33% CPC 33% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP 33% CPC 32% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 NDP 32% CPC 32% LPC 27% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 33% NDP 31% LPC 27% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 33% NDP 31% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 35% NDP 30% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 36% NDP 29% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 36% NDP 30% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 36% NDP 30% LPC 24% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 35% NDP 31% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 35% NDP 31% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 35% NDP 31% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 34% NDP 31% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 34% NDP 31% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 34% NDP 31% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 35% NDP 31% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 35% NDP 32% LPC 24% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 35% NDP 33% LPC 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 35% NDP 33% LPC 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Hamilton Mountain

LPC <1% CPC 60% NDP 40% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 52% NDP 47% LPC 1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 53% NDP 46% LPC 1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 52% NDP 45% LPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 51% CPC 47% LPC 2% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 49% CPC 48% LPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 57% CPC 40% LPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 63% CPC 35% LPC 1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 54% NDP 45% LPC 1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 53% NDP 45% LPC 2% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 57% NDP 41% LPC 2% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 60% NDP 38% LPC 2% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 60% NDP 38% LPC 2% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP 56% CPC 43% LPC 1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP 53% CPC 46% LPC 1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP 53% CPC 46% LPC 2% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 NDP 51% CPC 44% LPC 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 64% NDP 31% LPC 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 64% NDP 32% LPC 3% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 81% NDP 17% LPC 2% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 88% NDP 11% LPC 1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 86% NDP 13% LPC 1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 85% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 80% NDP 19% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 76% NDP 23% LPC 1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 74% NDP 25% LPC 1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 69% NDP 30% LPC 1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 74% NDP 25% LPC 1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 66% NDP 31% LPC 2% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 75% NDP 25% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 77% NDP 23% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 62% NDP 38% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 60% NDP 40% LPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Hamilton Mountain



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 31.1% 34.5% 23% ± 6% NDP 35.1% 31.6% 33% ± 7% CPC 25.9% 25.0% 35% ± 7% PPC 1.4% 6.3% 3% ± 4% GPC 5.8% 2.0% 4% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.