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Canada

Hamilton Mountain


MP elect: Lisa Hepfner (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC leaning

Candidates | Hamilton Mountain


Liberal Lisa Hepfner*
Conservative Ken Hewitt
NDP Monique Taylor
PPC Bing Wong
Marxist-Leninist Rolf Gerstenberger

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Hamilton Mountain 45% ± 0%▼ LPC 42% ± 0%▲ CPC 12% ± 0%▼ NDP LPC 2025 45.3% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton Mountain 81%▼ LPC 19%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hamilton Mountain

LPC 45% ± 0% CPC 42% ± 0% NDP 12% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton Mountain 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 36% CPC 32% NDP 25% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 38% CPC 31% NDP 23% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 41% CPC 30% NDP 22% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 41% CPC 30% NDP 22% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 41% CPC 30% NDP 22% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 41% CPC 30% NDP 21% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 42% CPC 30% NDP 21% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 42% CPC 30% NDP 21% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 45% CPC 30% NDP 18% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 45% CPC 30% NDP 18% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 46% CPC 30% NDP 18% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 47% CPC 30% NDP 17% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 48% CPC 30% NDP 16% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 48% CPC 30% NDP 16% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 48% CPC 31% NDP 15% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 49% CPC 31% NDP 15% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 50% CPC 31% NDP 14% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 15% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 15% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 15% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 15% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 50% CPC 31% NDP 15% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 15% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 15% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 50% CPC 29% NDP 15% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 50% CPC 29% NDP 15% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 51% CPC 29% NDP 15% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 51% CPC 29% NDP 14% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 51% CPC 29% NDP 15% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 52% CPC 29% NDP 15% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 52% CPC 29% NDP 15% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 15% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 15% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 15% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 14% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 14% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 52% CPC 29% NDP 14% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 52% CPC 30% NDP 14% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 52% CPC 30% NDP 14% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 52% CPC 30% NDP 14% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 52% CPC 30% NDP 15% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 52% CPC 30% NDP 14% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 48% CPC 31% NDP 17% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 45% CPC 42% NDP 12% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Hamilton Mountain

LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP 1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Hamilton Mountain



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 45% ± 0% 31.1% 34.5% 45.3% CPC 42% ± 0% 25.9% 25.0% 41.6% NDP 12% ± 0% 35.1% 31.6% 12.0% PPC 1% ± 0% 1.4% 6.3% 0.8% IND 0% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 5.8% 2.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.