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Hamilton Mountain



Latest projection: March 18, 2025
LPC likely
Hamilton Mountain 41% ± 8%▲ LPC 30% ± 7%▼ CPC 22% ± 6%▼ NDP 4% ± 3% GPC 3% ± 4% PPC LPC 2021 34.5% 338Canada vote projection | March 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton Mountain 97%▲ LPC 3%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 18, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hamilton Mountain

LPC 41% ± 8% CPC 30% ± 7% NDP 22% ± 6% GPC 4% ± 3% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton Mountain 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC March 18, 2025 2024-10-13 CPC 35% NDP 31% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 35% NDP 31% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 35% NDP 31% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 34% NDP 31% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 34% NDP 31% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 34% NDP 31% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 35% NDP 31% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 35% NDP 32% LPC 24% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 35% NDP 33% LPC 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 35% NDP 33% LPC 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 36% NDP 35% LPC 21% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 36% NDP 35% LPC 21% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 36% NDP 36% LPC 21% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 37% NDP 34% LPC 21% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 36% NDP 33% LPC 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 36% NDP 32% LPC 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 34% NDP 31% LPC 27% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 33% LPC 30% NDP 29% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 34% CPC 33% NDP 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 36% CPC 32% NDP 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 36% CPC 31% NDP 24% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 36% CPC 32% NDP 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 38% CPC 31% NDP 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 41% CPC 30% NDP 22% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-18 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Hamilton Mountain

LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 18, 2025 2024-10-13 CPC 80% NDP 19% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 76% NDP 23% LPC 1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 74% NDP 25% LPC 1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 69% NDP 30% LPC 1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 74% NDP 25% LPC 1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 66% NDP 31% LPC 2% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 75% NDP 25% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 77% NDP 23% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 62% NDP 38% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 60% NDP 40% LPC <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 52% NDP 48% LPC <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 53% NDP 47% LPC <1% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 52% NDP 48% LPC <1% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 70% NDP 30% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 73% NDP 27% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 73% NDP 27% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 71% NDP 25% LPC 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 62% LPC 22% NDP 15% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 57% CPC 42% NDP 1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 81% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP 1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Hamilton Mountain



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 31.1% 34.5% 41% ± 8% CPC 25.9% 25.0% 30% ± 7% NDP 35.1% 31.6% 22% ± 6% GPC 5.8% 2.0% 4% ± 3% PPC 1.4% 6.3% 3% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.