logo
logo
Canada

Lac-Saint-Jean



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
BQ safe
Lac-Saint-Jean 51% ± 8% BQ 28% ± 7% CPC 13% ± 5% LPC 5% ± 3% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC BQ 2021 50.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Lac-Saint-Jean >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Lac-Saint-Jean

LPC 13% ± 5% CPC 28% ± 7% NDP 5% ± 3% BQ 51% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Lac-Saint-Jean 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 49% CPC 30% LPC 15% NDP 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 51% CPC 29% LPC 14% NDP 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 51% CPC 28% LPC 15% NDP 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 48% CPC 31% LPC 15% NDP 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 47% CPC 31% LPC 15% NDP 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 46% CPC 32% LPC 16% NDP 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 48% CPC 31% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 49% CPC 30% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 49% CPC 30% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 49% CPC 29% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 49% CPC 29% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 49% CPC 29% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 49% CPC 29% LPC 15% NDP 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 48% CPC 29% LPC 15% NDP 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 48% CPC 30% LPC 15% NDP 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 47% CPC 29% LPC 15% NDP 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 46% CPC 29% LPC 16% NDP 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 47% CPC 29% LPC 16% NDP 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 48% CPC 28% LPC 15% NDP 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 48% CPC 28% LPC 15% NDP 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 49% CPC 28% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 49% CPC 28% LPC 14% NDP 5% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 49% CPC 28% LPC 15% NDP 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 50% CPC 27% LPC 15% NDP 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 50% CPC 27% LPC 15% NDP 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 50% CPC 27% LPC 15% NDP 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 51% CPC 27% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 50% CPC 28% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 50% CPC 28% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 50% CPC 29% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 51% CPC 28% LPC 13% NDP 5% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 51% CPC 28% LPC 13% NDP 5% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Lac-Saint-Jean

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Lac-Saint-Jean



2019 2021 Proj. BQ 44.0% 50.9% 51% ± 8% CPC 22.4% 25.3% 28% ± 7% LPC 25.8% 19.0% 13% ± 5% NDP 5.2% 3.3% 5% ± 3% GPC 1.9% 1.6% 3% ± 3% PPC 0.8% 0.0% 0% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.