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Canada


Egmont


Latest projection: May 19, 2024
CPC likely
Note: The terms "hold" and "gain" are used to compare current projections with transposed 2021 results onto the new electoral map.
Egmont 48% ± 10%▲ CPC 34% ± 9% LPC 9% ± 6% GPC 7% ± 5%▼ NDP LPC 2021 45.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 19, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Egmont 96%▲ CPC 4%▼ LPC <1% GPC Odds of winning | May 19, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Egmont

LPC 34% ± 9% CPC 48% ± 10% NDP 7% ± 5% GPC 9% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Egmont 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC May 19, 2024

Odds of winning | Egmont

LPC 4% CPC 96% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP May 19, 2024

Recent electoral history | Egmont



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 40.0% 45.9% 34% ± 9% CPC 33.9% 31.0% 48% ± 10% GPC 20.1% 9.4% 9% ± 6% NDP 6.1% 8.7% 7% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 5.0% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.