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Canada

Egmont



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
CPC likely
Egmont 45% ± 10%▲ CPC 32% ± 9% LPC 10% ± 6% NDP 10% ± 6% GPC LPC 2021 45.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Egmont 96%▲ CPC 4%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Egmont

LPC 32% ± 9% CPC 45% ± 10% NDP 10% ± 6% GPC 10% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Egmont 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 47% LPC 34% GPC 9% NDP 8% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 48% LPC 34% GPC 9% NDP 7% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 47% LPC 35% GPC 9% NDP 8% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 47% LPC 34% GPC 9% NDP 8% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 46% LPC 35% GPC 9% NDP 8% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 45% LPC 36% GPC 9% NDP 8% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 44% LPC 36% NDP 9% GPC 9% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 43% LPC 36% NDP 9% GPC 9% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 9% GPC 9% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 40% LPC 39% NDP 9% GPC 9% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 40% CPC 39% NDP 9% GPC 9% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 40% CPC 39% NDP 9% GPC 9% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 41% LPC 38% NDP 9% GPC 9% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 9% GPC 9% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 42% LPC 37% GPC 9% NDP 9% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 43% LPC 36% GPC 9% NDP 9% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 44% LPC 35% GPC 9% NDP 8% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 44% LPC 35% GPC 10% NDP 8% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 45% LPC 34% GPC 10% NDP 8% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 46% LPC 34% GPC 10% NDP 8% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 46% LPC 33% GPC 10% NDP 8% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 45% LPC 34% GPC 10% NDP 8% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 45% LPC 33% GPC 10% NDP 8% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 45% LPC 33% GPC 10% NDP 9% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 44% LPC 33% GPC 10% NDP 9% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 44% LPC 34% GPC 11% NDP 9% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 43% LPC 35% GPC 10% NDP 9% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 42% LPC 35% GPC 10% NDP 9% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 43% LPC 34% GPC 10% NDP 9% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 44% LPC 33% GPC 10% NDP 10% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 44% LPC 32% GPC 10% NDP 10% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 45% LPC 32% NDP 10% GPC 10% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Egmont

LPC 4% CPC 96% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Egmont



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 40.0% 45.9% 32% ± 9% CPC 33.9% 31.0% 45% ± 10% GPC 20.1% 9.4% 10% ± 6% NDP 6.1% 8.7% 10% ± 6% PPC 0.0% 5.0% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.