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Canada

Ottawa South



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
Ottawa South 37% ± 7% CPC 35% ± 7% LPC 21% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 49.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa South 63% CPC 37% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ottawa South

LPC 35% ± 7% CPC 37% ± 7% NDP 21% ± 5% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa South 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 39% CPC 36% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 39% CPC 36% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 40% CPC 35% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 40% CPC 35% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 40% CPC 35% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 40% CPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 39% CPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 39% CPC 35% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 39% CPC 35% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 39% CPC 35% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 39% CPC 35% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 39% CPC 35% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 38% CPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 38% CPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 39% CPC 34% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 40% CPC 33% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 40% CPC 34% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 40% CPC 34% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 39% CPC 36% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 39% CPC 37% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 38% CPC 37% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 38% LPC 37% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 37% CPC 37% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 38% CPC 36% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 38% CPC 36% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 38% CPC 36% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 38% CPC 36% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 39% CPC 35% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 37% CPC 37% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 37% LPC 36% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 37% LPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 37% LPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Ottawa South

LPC 37% CPC 63% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Ottawa South



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 53.5% 49.4% 35% ± 7% CPC 24.8% 27.0% 37% ± 7% NDP 15.0% 18.1% 21% ± 5% PPC 1.1% 3.1% 2% ± 2% GPC 5.2% 2.2% 4% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.