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Canada

Ottawa South


MP elect: David McGuinty (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Ottawa South


Liberal David McGuinty*
Conservative Blair Turner
NDP Hena Masjedee
Green Nira Dookeran
Rhinoceros Will Cooper
Christian Heritage Alex Perrier
Canadian Future John Redins

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Ottawa South 65% ± 6% LPC 27% ± 5% CPC 6% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 65.2% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa South >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ottawa South

LPC 65% ± 6% CPC 27% ± 5% NDP 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa South 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 21% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 37% LPC 36% NDP 20% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 37% LPC 37% NDP 20% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 39% CPC 35% NDP 19% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 43% CPC 33% NDP 18% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 47% CPC 32% NDP 15% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 49% CPC 31% NDP 13% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 51% CPC 31% NDP 13% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 50% CPC 31% NDP 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 52% CPC 30% NDP 12% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 55% CPC 29% NDP 11% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 55% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 55% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 55% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 55% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 56% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 57% CPC 29% NDP 9% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 59% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 59% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 59% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 59% CPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 60% CPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 61% CPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 65% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 65% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 65% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 65% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Ottawa South

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Ottawa South



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 65% ± 6% 53.5% 49.4% 65.2% CPC 27% ± 5% 24.8% 27.0% 27.1% NDP 6% ± 3% 15.0% 18.1% 6.0% GPC 1% ± 1% 5.2% 2.2% 1.0% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.1% 3.1% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.