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Canada

Saint-Jean


MP elect: Christine Normandin (BQ)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
BQ likely

Candidates | Saint-Jean


Liberal Patrick Agbokou
Conservative Marie Louis-Seize
NDP Danielle Dubuc
Green Vincent Piette
Bloc Quebecois Christine Normandin*
PPC Tchad Deschenes

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Saint-Jean 44% ± 6% BQ 34% ± 6% LPC 16% ± 4% CPC 3% ± 2% NDP BQ 2025 44.3% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint-Jean 99% BQ 1% LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saint-Jean

LPC 34% ± 6% CPC 16% ± 4% BQ 44% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Saint-Jean 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 50% CPC 20% LPC 16% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 49% CPC 20% LPC 16% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 49% CPC 20% LPC 16% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 49% CPC 20% LPC 17% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 46% LPC 20% CPC 19% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 45% LPC 22% CPC 19% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 44% LPC 23% CPC 20% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 42% LPC 26% CPC 19% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 41% LPC 27% CPC 20% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 40% LPC 28% CPC 19% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 39% LPC 30% CPC 19% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 39% LPC 30% CPC 19% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 39% LPC 30% CPC 19% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 39% LPC 30% CPC 19% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 40% LPC 30% CPC 19% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 40% LPC 30% CPC 18% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 39% LPC 32% CPC 18% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 38% LPC 33% CPC 18% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 37% LPC 33% CPC 18% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 37% LPC 34% CPC 18% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 36% LPC 35% CPC 19% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 36% LPC 35% CPC 19% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 36% LPC 35% CPC 19% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 36% BQ 36% CPC 19% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 37% BQ 35% CPC 19% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 37% BQ 35% CPC 19% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 37% BQ 36% CPC 19% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 37% BQ 36% CPC 19% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 37% BQ 36% CPC 19% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 37% BQ 36% CPC 19% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 37% BQ 37% CPC 18% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 37% LPC 37% CPC 17% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 37% LPC 37% CPC 18% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 37% LPC 37% CPC 18% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 37% LPC 36% CPC 18% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 37% LPC 36% CPC 18% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 37% LPC 36% CPC 18% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 37% LPC 36% CPC 18% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 37% LPC 36% CPC 18% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 38% LPC 35% CPC 18% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 38% LPC 35% CPC 18% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 38% LPC 35% CPC 18% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 38% LPC 35% CPC 18% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 38% LPC 35% CPC 18% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 39% LPC 35% CPC 18% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 38% LPC 34% CPC 19% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 38% LPC 34% CPC 19% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 38% LPC 33% CPC 19% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 38% LPC 33% CPC 20% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 38% LPC 33% CPC 20% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 38% LPC 34% CPC 20% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 44% LPC 34% CPC 16% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 44% LPC 34% CPC 16% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 44% LPC 34% CPC 16% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 44% LPC 34% CPC 16% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Saint-Jean

LPC 1% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 50% BQ 50% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 60% BQ 40% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 67% BQ 33% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 60% BQ 40% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 53% BQ 47% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 51% BQ 49% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 54% BQ 46% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 50% BQ 50% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Saint-Jean



2019 2021 2025 Proj. BQ 44% ± 6% 44.8% 46.0% 44.3% LPC 34% ± 6% 30.6% 28.1% 34.3% CPC 16% ± 4% 10.7% 12.7% 16.3% NDP 3% ± 2% 7.7% 7.3% 2.6% GPC 2% ± 1% 5.1% 2.1% 1.5% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.6% 0.0% 1.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.