logo
logo
Canada

Elgin—St. Thomas—London South


MP elect: Andrew Lawton (CPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Elgin—St. Thomas—London South


Liberal David Goodwin
Conservative Andrew Lawton
NDP Paul Pighin
PPC Stephen Campbell

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Elgin—St. Thomas—London South 50% ± 6% CPC 43% ± 6% LPC 5% ± 3% NDP CPC 2025 50.1% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Elgin—St. Thomas—London South 90%▼ CPC 10%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Elgin—St. Thomas—London South

LPC 43% ± 6% CPC 50% ± 6% NDP 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Elgin—St. Thomas—London South 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 63% NDP 17% LPC 8% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 63% NDP 17% LPC 9% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 62% NDP 17% LPC 9% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 59% NDP 16% LPC 13% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 58% NDP 15% LPC 15% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 58% LPC 17% NDP 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 57% LPC 18% NDP 13% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 57% LPC 19% NDP 12% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 57% LPC 19% NDP 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 56% LPC 20% NDP 12% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 56% LPC 23% NDP 11% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 55% LPC 23% NDP 11% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 55% LPC 23% NDP 11% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 55% LPC 23% NDP 11% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 55% LPC 24% NDP 11% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 55% LPC 24% NDP 11% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 55% LPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 55% LPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 54% LPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 55% LPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 55% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 55% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 56% LPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 57% LPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 57% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 56% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 56% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 57% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 57% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 57% LPC 30% NDP 8% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 58% LPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 58% LPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 58% LPC 30% NDP 8% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 59% LPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 59% LPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 59% LPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 59% LPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 58% LPC 31% NDP 7% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 58% LPC 31% NDP 7% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 58% LPC 31% NDP 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 58% LPC 31% NDP 7% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 58% LPC 31% NDP 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 58% LPC 31% NDP 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 59% LPC 31% NDP 7% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 50% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 50% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 50% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 50% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Elgin—St. Thomas—London South

LPC 10% CPC 90% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Elgin—St. Thomas—London South



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 50% ± 6% 50.0% 49.2% 50.1% LPC 43% ± 6% 23.2% 19.7% 43.1% NDP 5% ± 3% 18.0% 16.2% 4.8% PPC 2% ± 1% 1.5% 12.2% 1.9% GPC 0% ± 0% 5.7% 2.2% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.