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Canada


Etobicoke Centre (federal)


MP: Yvan Baker (LPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

CPC likely gain
Etobicoke Centre 47% ± 7% 36% ± 7% 12% ± 4% 4% ± 4% LPC 2021 47.92% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Etobicoke Centre 97% 3% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Etobicoke Centre

LPC 36% ± 7% CPC 47% ± 7% NDP 12% ± 4% PPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Etobicoke Centre 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP PPC

Odds of winning | Etobicoke Centre

LPC 3% CPC 97% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Etobicoke Centre



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 52.8% 51.9% 47.92% 36% ± 7% CPC 37.3% 34.5% 35.06% 47% ± 7% NDP 7.9% 7.7% 10.08% 12% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 1.1% 6.94% 4% ± 4% GPC 1.4% 4.4% 0.0% 1% ± 1%