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Elgin—St. Thomas—London South



Latest projection: March 25, 2025
CPC safe
Elgin—St. Thomas—London South 55% ± 8% CPC 26% ± 7%▲ LPC 9% ± 4%▼ NDP 5% ± 6% PPC 4% ± 4%▼ GPC CPC 2021 49.2% 338Canada vote projection | March 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Elgin—St. Thomas—London South >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Elgin—St. Thomas—London South

LPC 26% ± 7% CPC 55% ± 8% NDP 9% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 4% PPC 5% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Elgin—St. Thomas—London South 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC March 25, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 57% LPC 19% NDP 13% PPC 6% GPC 5% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 56% LPC 20% NDP 12% PPC 6% GPC 5% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 56% LPC 23% NDP 11% PPC 5% GPC 5% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 55% LPC 23% NDP 11% PPC 5% GPC 5% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 55% LPC 23% NDP 11% PPC 5% GPC 5% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 55% LPC 23% NDP 11% PPC 5% GPC 5% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 55% LPC 24% NDP 11% PPC 5% GPC 5% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 55% LPC 24% NDP 11% PPC 5% GPC 5% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 55% LPC 26% NDP 9% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2025-03-25 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Elgin—St. Thomas—London South

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP March 25, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Elgin—St. Thomas—London South



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 50.0% 49.2% 55% ± 8% LPC 23.2% 19.7% 26% ± 7% NDP 18.0% 16.2% 9% ± 4% PPC 1.5% 12.2% 5% ± 6% GPC 5.7% 2.2% 4% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.