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Canada

Québec Centre


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
BQ leaning
Québec Centre 31% ± 7%▲ BQ 28% ± 6% LPC 22% ± 6% CPC 13% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 35.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Québec Centre 73%▲ BQ 26% LPC 1% CPC Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Québec Centre

LPC 28% ± 6% CPC 22% ± 6% NDP 13% ± 5% GPC 4% ± 3% BQ 31% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Québec Centre 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 31% LPC 28% CPC 23% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 32% LPC 27% CPC 22% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 32% LPC 29% CPC 21% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 30% LPC 29% CPC 23% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 29% BQ 29% CPC 23% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 30% BQ 28% CPC 23% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 30% LPC 28% CPC 23% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 30% LPC 27% CPC 23% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 31% LPC 27% CPC 22% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 30% LPC 28% CPC 22% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 31% LPC 28% CPC 22% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Québec Centre

LPC 26% CPC 1% NDP <1% BQ 73% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 69% LPC 29% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 85% LPC 15% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 73% LPC 26% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 55% LPC 43% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 51% BQ 47% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 59% BQ 38% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 67% LPC 31% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 76% LPC 22% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 76% LPC 23% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 72% LPC 26% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 73% LPC 26% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Québec Centre



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 34.0% 35.7% 28% ± 6% BQ 32.5% 29.0% 31% ± 7% CPC 14.8% 18.0% 22% ± 6% NDP 11.3% 12.7% 13% ± 5% GPC 5.5% 2.4% 4% ± 3% PPC 1.2% 1.6% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.