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Canada

Québec Centre


MP: Jean-Yves Duclos (LPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
LPC likely

Recent electoral history | Québec Centre


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 49% ± 8% 34.0% 35.7% 49.5% BQ 36% ± 8% 32.5% 29.0% 35.9% NDP 8% ± 4% 11.3% 12.7% 7.8% PPC 5% ± 6% 1.2% 1.6% 5.0% CPC 0% ± 0% 14.8% 18.0% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 5.5% 2.4% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.



Québec Centre 49% ± 8%▼ LPC 36% ± 8% BQ 8% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 6% PPC LPC 2025 49.5% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Québec Centre 98%▼ LPC 2%▲ BQ <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Québec Centre

LPC 49% ± 8% NDP 8% ± 4% BQ 36% ± 8% PPC 5% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Québec Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ PPC June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 34% LPC 23% NDP 13% PPC 1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 33% LPC 23% NDP 13% PPC 1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 33% LPC 24% NDP 13% PPC 1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 33% LPC 25% NDP 13% PPC 1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 30% LPC 28% NDP 13% PPC 1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 30% LPC 29% NDP 11% PPC 1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 31% BQ 29% NDP 10% PPC 1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 34% BQ 28% NDP 10% PPC 2% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 34% BQ 27% NDP 10% PPC 1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 37% BQ 26% NDP 9% PPC 1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 39% BQ 25% NDP 8% PPC 1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 39% BQ 25% NDP 8% PPC 1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 39% BQ 25% NDP 8% PPC 1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 39% BQ 25% NDP 8% PPC 1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 39% BQ 25% NDP 8% PPC 1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 39% BQ 26% NDP 8% PPC 1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 42% BQ 25% NDP 7% PPC 1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 42% BQ 25% NDP 7% PPC 1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 43% BQ 24% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 44% BQ 23% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 44% BQ 23% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 44% BQ 23% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 45% BQ 22% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 47% BQ 21% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 47% BQ 20% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 48% BQ 20% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 49% BQ 19% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 49% BQ 19% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 48% BQ 19% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 49% BQ 19% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 49% BQ 19% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 49% BQ 19% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 51% BQ 36% NDP 6% PPC 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 51% BQ 36% NDP 6% PPC 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 51% BQ 36% NDP 6% PPC 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 51% BQ 36% NDP 6% PPC 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 51% BQ 35% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 51% BQ 35% NDP 6% PPC 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 53% BQ 33% NDP 6% PPC 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 53% BQ 34% NDP 6% PPC 5% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 52% BQ 34% NDP 6% PPC 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 52% BQ 34% NDP 6% PPC 5% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 52% BQ 34% NDP 6% PPC 5% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 51% BQ 35% NDP 6% PPC 5% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 49% BQ 37% NDP 6% PPC 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 49% BQ 37% NDP 6% PPC 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 48% BQ 37% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 48% BQ 37% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 48% BQ 37% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 48% BQ 38% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 46% BQ 40% NDP 6% PPC 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 49% BQ 36% NDP 8% PPC 5% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 49% BQ 36% NDP 8% PPC 5% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 49% BQ 36% NDP 8% PPC 5% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 50% BQ 36% NDP 8% PPC 5% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 49% BQ 36% NDP 8% PPC 5% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Québec Centre

LPC 98% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 2% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 97% CPC 2% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 95% CPC 4% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 93% CPC 4% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 93% LPC 4% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 66% LPC 32% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 56% LPC 42% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 61% BQ 37% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 88% BQ 12% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 92% BQ 8% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 98% BQ 2% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 84% BQ 16% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader