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Canada

Québec Centre



Latest projection: March 18, 2025
LPC likely
Québec Centre 39% ± 8%▲ LPC 25% ± 6%▼ BQ 22% ± 6% CPC 8% ± 4%▼ NDP 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 35.7% 338Canada vote projection | March 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Québec Centre >99%▲ LPC <1%▼ BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | March 18, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Québec Centre

LPC 39% ± 8% CPC 22% ± 6% NDP 8% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 3% BQ 25% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Québec Centre 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ March 18, 2025 2024-10-13 BQ 31% LPC 28% CPC 20% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 31% LPC 28% CPC 20% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 32% LPC 28% CPC 20% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 32% LPC 28% CPC 20% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 32% LPC 28% CPC 20% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 32% LPC 27% CPC 21% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 32% LPC 26% CPC 22% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 32% LPC 26% CPC 22% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 33% LPC 25% CPC 21% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 33% LPC 25% CPC 21% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 BQ 33% LPC 24% CPC 23% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 BQ 33% LPC 24% CPC 23% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 BQ 34% LPC 23% CPC 23% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 BQ 34% CPC 24% LPC 23% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 33% CPC 25% LPC 23% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 33% CPC 25% LPC 24% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 33% LPC 25% CPC 24% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 30% LPC 28% CPC 23% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 30% LPC 29% CPC 23% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 31% BQ 29% CPC 23% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 34% BQ 28% CPC 23% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 34% BQ 27% CPC 23% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 37% BQ 26% CPC 22% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 39% BQ 25% CPC 22% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2025-03-18 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Québec Centre

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ March 18, 2025 2024-10-13 BQ 76% LPC 24% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 74% LPC 26% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 74% LPC 25% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 78% LPC 22% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 83% LPC 17% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 83% LPC 17% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 89% LPC 11% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 89% LPC 10% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 94% LPC 6% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 94% LPC 5% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 BQ 96% LPC 3% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 BQ 96% LPC 2% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 BQ 97% LPC 1% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 BQ 97% CPC 2% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 95% CPC 4% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 93% CPC 4% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 93% LPC 4% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 66% LPC 32% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 56% LPC 42% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 61% BQ 37% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 88% BQ 12% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 92% BQ 8% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 98% BQ 2% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Québec Centre



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 34.0% 35.7% 39% ± 8% BQ 32.5% 29.0% 25% ± 6% CPC 14.8% 18.0% 22% ± 6% NDP 11.3% 12.7% 8% ± 4% GPC 5.5% 2.4% 4% ± 3% PPC 1.2% 1.6% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.