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Québec Centre



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
BQ likely
Québec Centre 33% ± 7% BQ 25% ± 6% LPC 21% ± 5% CPC 15% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 35.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Québec Centre 94% BQ 5%▼ LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Québec Centre

LPC 25% ± 6% CPC 21% ± 5% NDP 15% ± 5% GPC 4% ± 3% BQ 33% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Québec Centre 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 31% LPC 28% CPC 23% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 32% LPC 27% CPC 22% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 32% LPC 29% CPC 21% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 30% LPC 29% CPC 23% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 29% BQ 29% CPC 23% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 30% BQ 28% CPC 23% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 30% LPC 28% CPC 23% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 30% LPC 27% CPC 23% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 31% LPC 27% CPC 22% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 30% LPC 28% CPC 22% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 31% LPC 28% CPC 22% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 31% LPC 28% CPC 22% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 30% LPC 29% CPC 21% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 30% LPC 29% CPC 21% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 29% LPC 28% CPC 22% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 29% BQ 29% CPC 22% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 30% BQ 28% CPC 22% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 30% BQ 29% CPC 21% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 29% LPC 29% CPC 21% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 31% LPC 28% CPC 21% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 31% LPC 27% CPC 21% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 31% LPC 27% CPC 21% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 31% LPC 28% CPC 20% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 31% LPC 28% CPC 20% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 32% LPC 28% CPC 20% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 32% LPC 28% CPC 20% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 32% LPC 28% CPC 20% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 32% LPC 27% CPC 21% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 32% LPC 26% CPC 22% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 32% LPC 26% CPC 22% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 33% LPC 25% CPC 21% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 33% LPC 25% CPC 21% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Québec Centre

LPC 5% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 94% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 69% LPC 29% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 85% LPC 15% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 73% LPC 26% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 55% LPC 43% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 51% BQ 47% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 59% BQ 38% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 67% LPC 31% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 76% LPC 22% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 76% LPC 23% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 72% LPC 26% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 73% LPC 26% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 73% LPC 26% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 58% LPC 41% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 56% LPC 44% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 57% LPC 41% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 53% BQ 46% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 69% BQ 30% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 57% BQ 42% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 52% LPC 48% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 68% LPC 32% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 76% LPC 24% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 79% LPC 20% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 76% LPC 24% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 74% LPC 26% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 74% LPC 25% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 78% LPC 22% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 83% LPC 17% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 83% LPC 17% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 89% LPC 11% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 89% LPC 10% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 94% LPC 6% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 94% LPC 5% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Québec Centre



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 34.0% 35.7% 25% ± 6% BQ 32.5% 29.0% 33% ± 7% CPC 14.8% 18.0% 21% ± 5% NDP 11.3% 12.7% 15% ± 5% GPC 5.5% 2.4% 4% ± 3% PPC 1.2% 1.6% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.