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Québec Centre



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Québec Centre


Liberal Jean-Yves Duclos*
NDP Tommy Bureau
Bloc Quebecois Simon Berube
PPC Daniel Brisson
Independent Patrick Kerr

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Québec Centre 51% ± 9% LPC 35% ± 8% BQ 6% ± 4%▼ NDP 5% ± 6% PPC LPC 2021 35.7% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Québec Centre >99%▲ LPC <1%▼ BQ <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Québec Centre

LPC 51% ± 9% NDP 6% ± 4% BQ 35% ± 8% PPC 5% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Québec Centre 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP BQ PPC April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 34% BQ 27% NDP 10% PPC 1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 37% BQ 26% NDP 9% PPC 1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 39% BQ 25% NDP 8% PPC 1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 39% BQ 25% NDP 8% PPC 1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 39% BQ 25% NDP 8% PPC 1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 39% BQ 25% NDP 8% PPC 1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 39% BQ 25% NDP 8% PPC 1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 39% BQ 26% NDP 8% PPC 1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 42% BQ 25% NDP 7% PPC 1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 42% BQ 25% NDP 7% PPC 1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 43% BQ 24% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 44% BQ 23% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 44% BQ 23% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 44% BQ 23% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 45% BQ 22% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 47% BQ 21% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 47% BQ 20% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 48% BQ 20% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 49% BQ 19% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 49% BQ 19% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 48% BQ 19% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 49% BQ 19% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 49% BQ 19% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 49% BQ 19% NDP 6% PPC 1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 51% BQ 36% NDP 6% PPC 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 51% BQ 36% NDP 6% PPC 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 51% BQ 36% NDP 6% PPC 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 51% BQ 36% NDP 6% PPC 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 51% BQ 35% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 51% BQ 35% NDP 6% PPC 5% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Québec Centre

LPC >99% NDP <1% BQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP BQ April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 92% BQ 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Québec Centre



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 34.0% 35.7% 51% ± 9% BQ 32.5% 29.0% 35% ± 8% NDP 11.3% 12.7% 6% ± 4% PPC 1.2% 1.6% 5% ± 6% CPC 14.8% 18.0% 0% ± 0% GPC 5.5% 2.4% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.