🍁About 338Canada
338Canada is an independent media platform dedicated to Canadian politics, polling analysis, and electoral projections. The site was created and is managed by Philippe J. Fournier, poll analyst, columnist, and astrophysicist based in Montréal.
Since launching 338Canada and Qc125 in 2017, Fournier has written election analysis and polling commentary for L’actualité, The Walrus, Maclean’s, Politico, and several Canadian media organizations. He is also editor-in-chief of the 338Canada and Qc125 newsletters.
He regularly contributes political analysis to Radio-Canada, CPAC, CTV Montréal, Noovo, and Cogeco radio stations across Canada.
Follow Philippe J. Fournier:
Methodology
In short
The 338Canada model combines polling averages, historical election results, demographic data, and statistical simulations to estimate the probability of different electoral outcomes. Seat projections represent expected averages based on current information — not deterministic forecasts.
Vote projection model
At its core, the model applies a regionally adjusted proportional swing approach. When a party’s national or regional support changes in the polling aggregate, its vote share is adjusted in each electoral district while accounting for historical voting patterns, regional dynamics, and local demographic factors.
Demographic information helps determine how vote swings vary between districts. Variables used include:
- Languages spoken at home
- Age distribution
- Income levels
- Population density (urban–rural index)
- Education levels
- Immigration and country of birth
- Employment and occupational structure
These data are primarily sourced from the Statistics Canada Census program.
Polling aggregation
Polls are weighted according to three main factors:
- Sample size
- Recency (field dates)
- Polling-firm rating
Poll weights increase with sample size and decrease gradually as polls age. Firm ratings — an editorial component of the model — account for methodological track record and transparency. More information on pollster ratings is available here.
The time-decay factor accelerates during election campaigns, when public opinion can move more rapidly.
Local candidate effects
The model also estimates the effect of high-profile or locally strong candidates by analyzing historical over-performance patterns observed in comparable races. Because local polling is rarely available, these adjustments are probabilistic and subject to uncertainty.
Uncertainty and simulations
Seat projections published on 338Canada represent the average result of thousands of simulated elections generated using the statistical distributions implied by current polling data. The range of possible outcomes is displayed through seat intervals and probability estimates.