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Canada

Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville


MP elect: Nathalie Provost (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville


Liberal Nathalie Provost
Conservative David de Repentigny
NDP Hannah Wolker
Green Martine Desrochers
Bloc Quebecois Patrick O'Hara
PPC Nicolas Guerin

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville 45% ± 6% LPC 29% ± 5% BQ 22% ± 5% CPC LPC 2025 45.2% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville >99% LPC <1% BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville

LPC 45% ± 6% CPC 22% ± 5% BQ 29% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 42% LPC 24% CPC 19% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 41% LPC 24% CPC 19% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 41% LPC 25% CPC 19% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 40% LPC 26% CPC 18% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 38% LPC 29% CPC 18% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 37% LPC 32% CPC 18% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 35% LPC 34% CPC 18% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 37% BQ 33% CPC 17% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 37% BQ 32% CPC 17% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 38% BQ 32% CPC 17% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 40% BQ 31% CPC 16% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 41% BQ 31% CPC 16% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 41% BQ 31% CPC 16% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 41% BQ 31% CPC 16% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 40% BQ 32% CPC 16% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 40% BQ 32% CPC 16% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 43% BQ 31% CPC 15% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 43% BQ 31% CPC 15% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 44% BQ 30% CPC 15% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 44% BQ 29% CPC 16% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 16% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 45% BQ 28% CPC 16% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 16% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 46% BQ 28% CPC 16% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 47% BQ 28% CPC 16% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 48% BQ 27% CPC 16% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 47% BQ 28% CPC 16% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 16% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 15% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 48% BQ 27% CPC 15% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 15% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 14% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 49% BQ 28% CPC 15% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 15% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 15% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 15% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 47% BQ 29% CPC 15% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 15% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 47% BQ 29% CPC 15% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 47% BQ 29% CPC 15% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 47% BQ 29% CPC 15% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 47% BQ 29% CPC 15% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 46% BQ 29% CPC 16% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 47% BQ 29% CPC 15% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 46% BQ 30% CPC 15% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 45% BQ 30% CPC 16% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 45% BQ 30% CPC 16% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 44% BQ 31% CPC 17% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 44% BQ 30% CPC 17% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 44% BQ 31% CPC 17% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 42% BQ 32% CPC 17% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 22% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 22% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 22% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 22% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 19% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 38% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 72% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 79% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 85% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 96% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 96% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 97% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 96% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 92% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 92% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 98% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 96% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 45% ± 6% 38.0% 36.5% 45.2% BQ 29% ± 5% 37.0% 36.6% 29.1% CPC 22% ± 5% 11.5% 12.2% 21.7% NDP 2% ± 2% 7.8% 7.8% 2.2% GPC 1% ± 1% 3.7% 1.5% 1.2% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.1% 3.8% 0.7%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.