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Canada

Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville


MP: Nathalie Provost (LPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 49% ± 8% 38.0% 36.5% 45.2% BQ 27% ± 6% 37.0% 36.6% 29.1% CPC 19% ± 5% 11.5% 12.2% 21.7% NDP 2% ± 2% 7.8% 7.8% 2.2% GPC 1% ± 1% 3.7% 1.5% 1.2% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.1% 3.8% 0.7%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville


Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville 49% ± 8%▲ LPC 27% ± 6%▼ BQ 19% ± 5%▼ CPC LPC 2025 45.2% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville >99% LPC <1% BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville

LPC 49% ± 8% CPC 19% ± 5% BQ 27% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 42% LPC 24% CPC 19% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 41% LPC 24% CPC 19% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 41% LPC 25% CPC 19% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 40% LPC 26% CPC 18% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 38% LPC 29% CPC 18% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 37% LPC 32% CPC 18% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 35% LPC 34% CPC 18% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 37% BQ 33% CPC 17% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 37% BQ 32% CPC 17% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 38% BQ 32% CPC 17% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 40% BQ 31% CPC 16% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 41% BQ 31% CPC 16% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 41% BQ 31% CPC 16% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 41% BQ 31% CPC 16% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 40% BQ 32% CPC 16% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 40% BQ 32% CPC 16% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 43% BQ 31% CPC 15% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 43% BQ 31% CPC 15% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 44% BQ 30% CPC 15% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 44% BQ 29% CPC 16% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 16% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 45% BQ 28% CPC 16% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 16% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 46% BQ 28% CPC 16% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 47% BQ 28% CPC 16% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 48% BQ 27% CPC 16% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 47% BQ 28% CPC 16% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 16% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 15% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 48% BQ 27% CPC 15% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 15% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 14% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 49% BQ 28% CPC 15% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 15% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 15% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 15% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 47% BQ 29% CPC 15% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 15% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 47% BQ 29% CPC 15% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 47% BQ 29% CPC 15% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 47% BQ 29% CPC 15% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 47% BQ 29% CPC 15% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 46% BQ 29% CPC 16% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 47% BQ 29% CPC 15% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 46% BQ 30% CPC 15% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 45% BQ 30% CPC 16% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 45% BQ 30% CPC 16% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 44% BQ 31% CPC 17% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 44% BQ 30% CPC 17% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 44% BQ 31% CPC 17% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 42% BQ 32% CPC 17% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 22% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 22% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 22% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 22% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 22% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 21% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 45% BQ 30% CPC 21% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 46% BQ 29% CPC 21% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 47% BQ 28% CPC 20% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 49% BQ 27% CPC 19% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 19% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 38% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 72% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 79% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 85% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 96% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 96% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 97% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 96% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 92% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 92% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 98% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 96% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader