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Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville

Latest update: January 18, 2026
L
MP: Nathalie Provost
Quebec
LPC leaning
Projection — Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville → Demographic data — Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville → Regional projection — Quebec → All federal districts → Federal projection map → Federal polls → Back to 338Canada home → Riding roulette! →

Recent electoral history | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 39% ± 7% 38.0% 36.5% 45.2% BQ 34% ± 7% 37.0% 36.6% 29.1% CPC 18% ± 5% 11.5% 12.2% 21.7% NDP 4% ± 3% 7.8% 7.8% 2.2% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.1% 3.8% 0.7%

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338Canada Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville projection

Latest update: January 18, 2026

Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville 32% 46% 39% ± 7% ▼ LPC 27% 40% 34% ± 7% ▲ BQ 14% 23% 18% ± 5% ▼ CPC 1% 8% 4% ± 3% NDP 0% 5% 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2025 45.2% 338Canada vote projection | January 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville 86%▼ LPC 14%▲ BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | January 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville

LPC 39% ± 7% CPC 18% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 3% BQ 34% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC January 18, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 44% BQ 30% CPC 17% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 44% BQ 31% CPC 17% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 42% BQ 32% CPC 17% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 22% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 22% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 22% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 22% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 22% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 21% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 45% BQ 30% CPC 21% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 46% BQ 29% CPC 21% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 47% BQ 28% CPC 20% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 49% BQ 27% CPC 19% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 49% BQ 27% CPC 19% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 50% BQ 27% CPC 19% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 49% BQ 28% CPC 19% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 50% BQ 27% CPC 19% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 48% BQ 29% CPC 19% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 47% BQ 29% CPC 19% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 46% BQ 29% CPC 19% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 46% BQ 30% CPC 20% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 45% BQ 31% CPC 19% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 45% BQ 30% CPC 20% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 45% BQ 30% CPC 20% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 44% BQ 30% CPC 21% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 44% BQ 30% CPC 21% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 43% BQ 31% CPC 21% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 43% BQ 31% CPC 21% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 43% BQ 31% CPC 21% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 43% BQ 31% CPC 21% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 43% BQ 31% CPC 21% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 42% BQ 31% CPC 22% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 42% BQ 31% CPC 21% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 42% BQ 31% CPC 21% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 42% BQ 33% CPC 20% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 41% BQ 33% CPC 20% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 20% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 40% BQ 33% CPC 19% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 40% BQ 33% CPC 19% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 40% BQ 33% CPC 19% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 39% BQ 34% CPC 18% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2026-01-18

Odds of winning | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville

LPC 86% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 14% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ January 18, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 96% BQ 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 96% BQ 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 93% BQ 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 89% BQ 11% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 89% BQ 11% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 89% BQ 11% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 89% BQ 11% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 86% BQ 14% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-18


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Demographic data | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 76.3% French 18.4% English 1.4% Spanish 1.0% Russian 0.5% Arabic 0.4% Romanian 0.2% MandarinChâteauguay—Les Jardins-de-NapiervilleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 14.0% No diploma 22.1% High school 23.2% Trade 19.2% College / Cégep 3.3% Some university 12.7% Bachelor's 5.4% PostgraduateChâteauguay—Les Jardins-de-NapiervilleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 86.8% Not visible minority 13.2% Visible minority 6.6% Black 2.0% Latin American 1.7% Arab 0.8% South Asian 0.5% Chinese 0.4% MultipleChâteauguay—Les Jardins-de-NapiervilleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 54.2% Catholic 26.8% No Religion 6.4% Christian (n.o.s.) 3.5% Muslim 2.1% Other Christian 1.8% Orthodox 1.2% Anglican 0.8% PentecostalChâteauguay—Les Jardins-de-NapiervilleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 74.2% Owner 25.8% RenterChâteauguay—Les Jardins-de-NapiervilleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 62.1% Employed 33.7% Not in labour force 4.3% UnemployedChâteauguay—Les Jardins-de-NapiervilleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 97.5% Non-Indigenous 2.5% Indigenous identity 1.6% First Nations 0.7% Metis 0.1% OthersChâteauguay—Les Jardins-de-NapiervilleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 90.3% Car / truck / van 4.2% Public transit 3.7% Walking 1.3% Other 0.6% BicycleChâteauguay—Les Jardins-de-NapiervilleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.