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Canada

Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville


Liberal Nathalie Provost
Conservative David de Repentigny
NDP Hannah Wolker
Green Martine Desrochers
Bloc Quebecois Patrick O'Hara
PPC Nicolas Guerin

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville 48% ± 8%▲ LPC 28% ± 6%▼ BQ 15% ± 5% CPC 4% ± 3% NDP 3% ± 4% PPC BQ 2021 36.6% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville >99% LPC <1% BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville

LPC 48% ± 8% CPC 15% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 3% BQ 28% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP BQ April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 37% BQ 32% CPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 38% BQ 32% CPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 40% BQ 31% CPC 16% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 41% BQ 31% CPC 16% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 41% BQ 31% CPC 16% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 41% BQ 31% CPC 16% NDP 5% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 40% BQ 32% CPC 16% NDP 5% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 40% BQ 32% CPC 16% NDP 5% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 43% BQ 31% CPC 15% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 43% BQ 31% CPC 15% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 44% BQ 30% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 44% BQ 29% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 45% BQ 28% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 45% BQ 29% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 46% BQ 28% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 47% BQ 28% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 48% BQ 27% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 47% BQ 28% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 48% BQ 27% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 49% BQ 28% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 47% BQ 29% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville

LPC >99% NDP <1% BQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP BQ April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 79% BQ 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 85% BQ 15% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 96% BQ 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 96% BQ 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 96% BQ 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 92% BQ 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 92% BQ 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 38.0% 36.5% 48% ± 8% BQ 37.0% 36.6% 28% ± 6% CPC 11.5% 12.2% 15% ± 5% NDP 7.8% 7.8% 4% ± 3% PPC 1.1% 3.8% 3% ± 4% GPC 3.7% 1.5% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.