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Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas


Liberal JP Danko
Conservative Erika Alexander
NDP Roberto Henriquez
Green Georgia Beauchemin
PPC Ava Sharavi
Christian Heritage Jim Enos

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 56% ± 8% LPC 30% ± 7%▼ CPC 8% ± 4% NDP LPC 2021 44.3% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

LPC 56% ± 8% CPC 30% ± 7% NDP 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 44% CPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 46% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 49% CPC 33% NDP 12% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 49% CPC 32% NDP 12% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 49% CPC 32% NDP 12% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 49% CPC 32% NDP 12% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 50% CPC 32% NDP 12% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 50% CPC 32% NDP 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 52% CPC 32% NDP 10% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 52% CPC 32% NDP 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 52% CPC 32% NDP 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 53% CPC 32% NDP 9% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 54% CPC 32% NDP 9% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 54% CPC 32% NDP 9% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 54% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 55% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 56% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 56% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 56% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 57% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 56% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 56% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 56% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 56% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 56% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 56% CPC 30% NDP 8% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 46.5% 44.3% 56% ± 8% CPC 26.9% 29.1% 30% ± 7% NDP 17.7% 19.7% 8% ± 4% GPC 7.3% 2.6% 2% ± 2% PPC 1.4% 4.1% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.