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Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
CPC likely
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 39% ± 7%▼ CPC 30% ± 6% LPC 22% ± 5% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 44.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 97% CPC 3% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

LPC 30% ± 6% CPC 39% ± 7% NDP 22% ± 5% GPC 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 38% LPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 37% LPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 37% LPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 37% LPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 37% LPC 34% NDP 22% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 37% LPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 37% LPC 33% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 37% LPC 33% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 37% LPC 34% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 37% LPC 35% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 37% LPC 35% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 39% LPC 34% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 40% LPC 33% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 40% LPC 33% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 40% LPC 32% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 39% LPC 32% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 39% LPC 33% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 39% LPC 33% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 38% LPC 33% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 38% LPC 33% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 39% LPC 32% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 40% LPC 31% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 40% LPC 30% NDP 22% GPC 5% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 39% LPC 30% NDP 22% GPC 5% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

LPC 3% CPC 97% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 46.5% 44.3% 30% ± 6% CPC 26.9% 29.1% 39% ± 7% NDP 17.7% 19.7% 22% ± 5% PPC 1.4% 4.1% 2% ± 3% GPC 7.3% 2.6% 5% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.