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Canada

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas


MP elect: JP Danko (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas


Liberal JP Danko
Conservative Erika Alexander
NDP Roberto Henriquez
Green Georgia Beauchemin
PPC Ava Sharavi
Christian Heritage Jim Enos

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 56% ± 6% LPC 37% ± 6% CPC 5% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 56.1% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

LPC 56% ± 6% CPC 37% ± 6% NDP 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 41% LPC 29% NDP 22% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 41% LPC 31% NDP 21% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 40% LPC 31% NDP 21% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 20% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 37% CPC 37% NDP 19% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 41% CPC 36% NDP 16% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 44% CPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 45% CPC 34% NDP 14% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 44% CPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 46% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 49% CPC 33% NDP 12% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 49% CPC 32% NDP 12% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 49% CPC 32% NDP 12% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 49% CPC 32% NDP 12% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 50% CPC 32% NDP 12% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 50% CPC 32% NDP 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 52% CPC 32% NDP 10% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 52% CPC 32% NDP 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 52% CPC 32% NDP 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 53% CPC 32% NDP 9% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 54% CPC 32% NDP 9% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 54% CPC 32% NDP 9% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 54% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 55% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 56% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 56% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 56% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 57% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 56% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 56% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 56% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 56% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 56% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 56% CPC 30% NDP 8% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 56% CPC 30% NDP 8% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 56% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 55% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 55% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 56% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 56% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 57% CPC 30% NDP 8% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 57% CPC 30% NDP 8% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 56% CPC 30% NDP 8% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 56% CPC 30% NDP 8% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 56% CPC 30% NDP 8% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 56% CPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 53% CPC 31% NDP 10% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 56% ± 6% 46.5% 44.3% 56.1% CPC 37% ± 6% 26.9% 29.1% 36.8% NDP 5% ± 3% 17.7% 19.7% 5.3% GPC 1% ± 1% 7.3% 2.6% 1.2% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.4% 4.1% 0.4% IND 0% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.