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Canada


Hastings–Lennox and Addington (federal)


MP: Shelby Kramp-Neuman (CPC)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

CPC safe hold
Hastings–Lennox and Addington 53% ± 8%▼ 28% ± 6%▲ 11% ± 4%▼ 4% ± 3% 3% ± 3% CPC 2021 45.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Hastings–Lennox and Addington >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hastings–Lennox and Addington

LPC 28% ± 6% CPC 53% ± 8% NDP 11% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Hastings–Lennox and Addington 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Hastings–Lennox and Addington

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Hastings–Lennox and Addington



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 41.9% 41.4% 45.1% 53% ± 8% LPC 42.4% 37.1% 34.86% 28% ± 6% NDP 12.7% 13.2% 11.01% 11% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 2.5% 5.73% 3% ± 3% GPC 2.9% 5.9% 1.78% 4% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 1.53% 0% ± 0%