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Canada

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
CPC leaning
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 38% ± 7% CPC 34% ± 7% LPC 20% ± 5% NDP 5% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 44.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 78%▲ CPC 22%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

LPC 34% ± 7% CPC 38% ± 7% NDP 20% ± 5% GPC 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 38% LPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 37% LPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 37% LPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 37% LPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 37% LPC 34% NDP 22% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 37% LPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

LPC 22% CPC 78% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 46.5% 44.3% 34% ± 7% CPC 26.9% 29.1% 38% ± 7% NDP 17.7% 19.7% 20% ± 5% PPC 1.4% 4.1% 2% ± 3% GPC 7.3% 2.6% 5% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.