Welcome to 338Canada !
The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls,
electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at
Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.
Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for
L'actualité magazine and a contributor to
Politico Canada , as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts
The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.
Please subscribe to the
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338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection
Latest update: July 25, 2024
District of Columbia, Safe Democratic
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
DC 3
Massachusetts, Safe Democratic
11 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MA 11
California, Safe Democratic
54 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
CA 54
Maryland, Safe Democratic
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MD 10
Hawaii, Safe Democratic
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
HI 4
Vermont, Safe Democratic
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
VT 3
Washington, Safe Democratic
12 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
WA 12
New York, Likely Democratic
28 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NY 28
Connecticut, Likely Democratic
7 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
CT 7
Rhode Island, Likely Democratic
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
RI 4
Oregon, Likely Democratic
8 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
OR 8
New Jersey, Likely Democratic
14 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NJ 14
Delaware, Likely Democratic
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
DE 3
Illinois, Likely Democratic
19 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
IL 19
Colorado, Likely Democratic
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
CO 10
Maine, Leaning Democratic
4 Electoral Votes
[EV given according to districts]
ME* 4
Minnesota, Leaning Democratic
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MN 10
Virginia, Leaning Democratic
13 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
VA 13
New Hampshire, Leaning Democratic
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NH 4
New Mexico, Leaning Democratic
5 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NM 5
Wisconsin, Toss up
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
WI 10
Michigan, Toss up
15 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MI 15
Georgia, Toss up
16 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
GA 16
Pennsylvania, Toss up
19 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
PA 19
North Carolina, Leaning Trump
16 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NC 16
Nevada, Leaning Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NV 6
Florida, Leaning Trump
30 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
FL 30
Arizona, Leaning Trump
11 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
AZ 11
Ohio, Leaning Trump
17 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
OH 17
Texas, Likely Trump
40 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
TX 40
Iowa, Likely Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
IA 6
Montana, Likely Trump
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MT 4
Missouri, Likely Trump
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MO 10
South Carolina, Likely Trump
9 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
SC 9
Kansas, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
KS 6
Nebraska, Safe Trump
5 Electoral Votes
[EV given according to districts]
NE* 5
Louisiana, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
LA 8
Mississippi, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MS 6
Alaska, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
AK 3
Indiana, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
IN 11
South Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
SD 3
Tennessee, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
TN 11
Idaho, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
ID 4
North Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
ND 3
Alabama, Safe Trump
9 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
AL 9
Utah, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
UT 6
Kentucky, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
KY 8
Arkansas, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
AR 6
Oklahoma, Safe Trump
7 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
OK 7
West Virginia, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
WV 4
Wyoming, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
WY 3
WI
MI
GA
PA
Toss-ups
District of Columbia
▼302 Trump
Harris 236▲
[231-337]
[201-307]
270 EV to win
Harris 34%▲
Tie 1%
▼66% Trump
Odds of Winning EC
338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection | July 25, 2024
[▲▼: movement since previous update]
Odds of winning Electoral College if...
If Trump wins Wisconsin...
If Trump wins Wisconsin...
If Trump wins Wisconsin...
11%
88%
If Trump wins Michigan...
If Trump wins Michigan...
If Trump wins Michigan...
11%
89%
If Trump wins Georgia...
If Trump wins Georgia...
If Trump wins Georgia...
14%
86%
If Trump wins Pennsylvania...
If Trump wins Pennsylvania...
If Trump wins Pennsylvania...
12%
88%
Latest update: July 25, 2024
If Harris wins Wisconsin...
If Harris wins Wisconsin...
If Harris wins Wisconsin...
53%
46%
If Harris wins Michigan...
If Harris wins Michigan...
If Harris wins Michigan...
61%
39%
If Harris wins Georgia...
If Harris wins Georgia...
If Harris wins Georgia...
68%
32%
If Harris wins Pennsylvania...
If Harris wins Pennsylvania...
If Harris wins Pennsylvania...
72%
27%
Latest update: July 25, 2024
[Probability density chart below is a work in progress... More to come soon.]
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
Electoral Votes
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
360+
3%
270-299
21%
330-359
6%
300-329
26%
300-329
10%
330-359
15%
270-299
15%
360+
3%
Trump wins 66%
Harris wins 34%
July 25, 2024
District of Columbia, Safe Democratic
3 Electoral Votes
DC
DC
DC
Massachusetts, Safe Democratic
11 Electoral Votes
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
California, Safe Democratic
54 Electoral Votes
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
Maryland, Safe Democratic
10 Electoral Votes
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
Hawaii, Safe Democratic
4 Electoral Votes
HI
HI
HI
HI
Vermont, Safe Democratic
3 Electoral Votes
VT
VT
VT
Washington, Safe Democratic
12 Electoral Votes
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
New York, Likely Democratic
28 Electoral Votes
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
Maine-1, Likely Democratic
1 Electoral Vote
ME1
Connecticut, Likely Democratic
7 Electoral Votes
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
Rhode Island, Likely Democratic
4 Electoral Votes
RI
RI
RI
RI
Oregon, Likely Democratic
8 Electoral Votes
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
New Jersey, Likely Democratic
14 Electoral Votes
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
Delaware, Likely Democratic
3 Electoral Votes
DE
DE
DE
Illinois, Likely Democratic
19 Electoral Votes
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
Colorado, Likely Democratic
10 Electoral Votes
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
Maine, Leaning Democratic
2 Electoral Votes
(*Plus one EV per congressional district)
ME
ME
Minnesota, Leaning Democratic
10 Electoral Votes
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
Virginia, Leaning Democratic
13 Electoral Votes
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
New Hampshire, Leaning Democratic
4 Electoral Votes
NH
NH
NH
NH
New Mexico, Leaning Democratic
5 Electoral Votes
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
Nebraska-2, Toss up
1 Electoral Vote
NE2
Wisconsin, Toss up
10 Electoral Votes
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
Michigan, Toss up
15 Electoral Votes
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
Georgia, Toss up
16 Electoral Votes
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
Pennsylvania, Toss up
19 Electoral Votes
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
North Carolina, Leaning Trump
16 Electoral Votes
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
Nevada, Leaning Trump
6 Electoral Votes
NV
NV
NV
NV
NV
NV
Maine-2, Leaning Trump
1 Electoral Vote
ME2
Florida, Leaning Trump
30 Electoral Votes
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
Arizona, Leaning Trump
11 Electoral Votes
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
Ohio, Leaning Trump
17 Electoral Votes
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
Texas, Likely Trump
40 Electoral Votes
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
Nebraska-1, Likely Trump
1 Electoral Vote
NE1
Iowa, Likely Trump
6 Electoral Votes
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
Montana, Likely Trump
4 Electoral Votes
MT
MT
MT
MT
Missouri, Likely Trump
10 Electoral Votes
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
South Carolina, Likely Trump
9 Electoral Votes
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
Kansas, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
Nebraska, Safe Trump
2 Electoral Votes
(*Plus one EV per congressional district)
NE
NE
Louisiana, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
Mississippi, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
Alaska, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
AK
AK
AK
Indiana, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
South Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
SD
SD
SD
Tennessee, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
Idaho, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
ID
ID
ID
ID
North Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
ND
ND
ND
Alabama, Safe Trump
9 Electoral Votes
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
Utah, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
UT
UT
UT
UT
UT
UT
Kentucky, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
Arkansas, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
AR
AR
AR
AR
AR
AR
Oklahoma, Safe Trump
7 Electoral Votes
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
West Virginia, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
WV
WV
WV
WV
Wyoming, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
WY
WY
WY
Nebraska-3, Safe Trump
1 Electoral Vote
NE3
DC
DC
DC
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
HI
HI
HI
HI
VT
VT
VT
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
ME1
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
RI
RI
RI
RI
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
DE
DE
DE
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
ME
ME
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
NH
NH
NH
NH
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
NE2
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NV
NV
NV
NV
NV
NV
ME2
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
NE1
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
MT
MT
MT
MT
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
NE
NE
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
AK
AK
AK
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
SD
SD
SD
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
ID
ID
ID
ID
ND
ND
ND
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
UT
UT
UT
UT
UT
UT
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
AR
AR
AR
AR
AR
AR
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
WV
WV
WV
WV
WY
WY
WY
NE3
270 EV to win
338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection
Latest update: July 25, 2024
▼302 Trump
[231-337]
Harris 236▲
[201-307]
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
District de Columbia, Démocrate solide
3 Grands Électeurs
DC+81
Massachusetts, Démocrate solide
11 Grands Électeurs
MA+30
Californie, Démocrate solide
54 Grands Électeurs
CA+27
Vermont, Démocrate solide
3 Grands Électeurs
VT+27
Maryland, Démocrate solide
10 Grands Électeurs
MD+26
Hawaii, Démocrate solide
4 Grands Électeurs
HI+23
Maine-1, Démocrate probable
1 Grand Électeur
ME1+19
Washington, Démocrate solide
12 Grands Électeurs
WA+18
Rhode Island, Démocrate probable
4 Grands Électeurs
RI+15
Delaware, Démocrate probable
3 Grands Électeurs
DE+14
Connecticut, Démocrate probable
7 Grands Électeurs
CT+13
New York, Démocrate probable
28 Grands Électeurs
NY+12
Oregon, Démocrate probable
8 Grands Électeurs
OR+12
New Jersey, Démocrate probable
14 Grands Électeurs
NJ+11
Colorado, Démocrate probable
10 Grands Électeurs
CO+9
Illinois, Démocrate probable
19 Grands Électeurs
IL+8
Maine, Démocrate enclin
2 Grands Électeurs
(*plus un GÉ par district)
ME+6
Minnesota, Démocrate enclin
10 Grands Électeurs
MN+5
New Hampshire, Démocrate enclin
4 Grands Électeurs
NH+4
Nouveau-Mexique, Démocrate enclin
5 Grands Électeurs
NM+4
Virginie, Démocrate enclin
13 Grands Électeurs
VA+4
Nebraska-2, Pivot
1 Grand Électeur
NE2+2
Wisconsin, Pivot
10 Grands Électeurs
WI+0.5
Michigan, Pivot
15 Grands Électeurs
MI+0.6
Georgie, Pivot
16 Grands Électeurs
GA+2
Tipping point: PA
Pennsylvanie, Pivot
19 Grands Électeurs
PA+2
Caroline du Nord, Trump enclin
16 Grands Électeurs
NC+4
Nevada, Trump enclin
6 Grands Électeurs
NV+5
Floride, Trump enclin
30 Grands Électeurs
FL+6
Arizona, Trump enclin
11 Grands Électeurs
AZ+7
Ohio, Trump enclin
17 Grands Électeurs
OH+7
Texas, Trump probable
40 Grands Électeurs
TX+8
Maine-2, Trump enclin
1 Grand Électeur
ME2+8
Iowa, Trump probable
6 Grands Électeurs
IA+13
Missouri, Trump probable
10 Grands Électeurs
MO+14
Caroline du Sud, Trump probable
9 Grands Électeurs
SC+15
Montana, Trump probable
4 Grands Électeurs
MT+17
Nebraska-1, Trump probable
1 Grand Électeur
NE1+17
Kansas, Trump solide
6 Grands Électeurs
KS+18
Louisiane, Trump solide
8 Grands Électeurs
LA+20
Indiana, Trump solide
11 Grands Électeurs
IN+22
Mississippi, Trump solide
6 Grands Électeurs
MS+22
Nebraska, Trump solide
2 Grands Électeurs
(*plus un GÉ par district)
NE+22
Tennessee, Trump solide
11 Grands Électeurs
TN+25
Alabama, Trump solide
9 Grands Électeurs
AL+27
Utah, Trump solide
6 Grands Électeurs
UT+28
Kentucky, Trump solide
8 Grands Électeurs
KY+28
Arkansas, Trump solide
6 Grands Électeurs
AR+29
Idaho, Trump solide
4 Grands Électeurs
ID+30
Alaska, Trump solide
3 Grands Électeurs
AK+30
Dakota du Sud, Trump solide
3 Grands Électeurs
SD+32
Dakota du Nord, Trump solide
3 Grands Électeurs
ND+33
Oklahoma, Trump solide
7 Grands Électeurs
OK+34
Virginie Occidentale, Trump solide
4 Grands Électeurs
WV+40
Wyoming, Trump solide
3 Grands Électeurs
WY+44
Nebraska-3, Trump solide
1 Grand Électeur
NE3+52
The Tipping Point
District of Columbia, Safe Democratic
3 Electoral Votes
DC+81
Massachusetts, Safe Democratic
11 Electoral Votes
MA+30
California, Safe Democratic
54 Electoral Votes
CA+27
Vermont, Safe Democratic
3 Electoral Votes
VT+27
Maryland, Safe Democratic
10 Electoral Votes
MD+26
Hawaii, Safe Democratic
4 Electoral Votes
HI+23
Maine-1, Likely Democratic
1 Electoral Vote
ME1+19
Washington, Safe Democratic
12 Electoral Votes
WA+18
Rhode Island, Likely Democratic
4 Electoral Votes
RI+15
Delaware, Likely Democratic
3 Electoral Votes
DE+14
Connecticut, Likely Democratic
7 Electoral Votes
CT+13
New York, Likely Democratic
28 Electoral Votes
NY+12
Oregon, Likely Democratic
8 Electoral Votes
OR+12
New Jersey, Likely Democratic
14 Electoral Votes
NJ+11
Colorado, Likely Democratic
10 Electoral Votes
CO+9
Illinois, Likely Democratic
19 Electoral Votes
IL+8
Maine, Leaning Democratic
2 Electoral Votes
(*Plus one EV per congressional district)
ME+6
Minnesota, Leaning Democratic
10 Electoral Votes
MN+5
New Hampshire, Leaning Democratic
4 Electoral Votes
NH+4
New Mexico, Leaning Democratic
5 Electoral Votes
NM+4
Virginia, Leaning Democratic
13 Electoral Votes
VA+4
Nebraska-2, Toss up
1 Electoral Vote
NE2+2
Wisconsin, Toss up
10 Electoral Votes
WI+0.5
Michigan, Toss up
15 Electoral Votes
MI+0.6
Georgia, Toss up
16 Electoral Votes
GA+2
Tipping point: PA
Pennsylvania, Toss up
19 Electoral Votes
PA+2
North Carolina, Leaning Trump
16 Electoral Votes
NC+4
Nevada, Leaning Trump
6 Electoral Votes
NV+5
Florida, Leaning Trump
30 Electoral Votes
FL+6
Arizona, Leaning Trump
11 Electoral Votes
AZ+7
Ohio, Leaning Trump
17 Electoral Votes
OH+7
Texas, Likely Trump
40 Electoral Votes
TX+8
Maine-2, Leaning Trump
1 Electoral Vote
ME2+8
Iowa, Likely Trump
6 Electoral Votes
IA+13
Missouri, Likely Trump
10 Electoral Votes
MO+14
South Carolina, Likely Trump
9 Electoral Votes
SC+15
Montana, Likely Trump
4 Electoral Votes
MT+17
Nebraska-1, Likely Trump
1 Electoral Vote
NE1+17
Kansas, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
KS+18
Louisiana, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
LA+20
Indiana, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
IN+22
Mississippi, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
MS+22
Nebraska, Safe Trump
2 Electoral Votes
(*Plus one EV per congressional district)
NE+22
Tennessee, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
TN+25
Alabama, Safe Trump
9 Electoral Votes
AL+27
Utah, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
UT+28
Kentucky, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
KY+28
Arkansas, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
AR+29
Idaho, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
ID+30
Alaska, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
AK+30
South Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
SD+32
North Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
ND+33
Oklahoma, Safe Trump
7 Electoral Votes
OK+34
West Virginia, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
WV+40
Wyoming, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
WY+44
Nebraska-3, Safe Trump
1 Electoral Vote
NE3+52
The Tipping Point
July 25, 2024
Electoral Vote Projection
Trump 302 [231-337]
Harris 236 [201-307]
Seat projection
330
300
270
240
210
180
150
120
90
60
30
2024-07-01
2024-08-01
2024-09-01
2024-10-01
2024-11-01
Election 2024
Biden drops out
Trump
Harris
270 EV to win
July 25, 2024
2024-06-11
Trump 278
Harris 260
2024-06-11
2024-06-13
Trump 297
Harris 241
2024-06-13
2024-06-15
Trump 287
Harris 251
2024-06-15
2024-06-17
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-06-17
2024-06-19
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-06-19
2024-06-21
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-06-21
2024-06-23
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-06-23
2024-06-25
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-06-25
2024-06-27
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-06-27
2024-06-29
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-06-29
2024-07-01
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-01
2024-07-03
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-03
2024-07-05
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-05
2024-07-07
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-07
2024-07-09
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-09
2024-07-11
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-11
2024-07-13
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-13
2024-07-15
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-15
2024-07-17
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-17
2024-07-19
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-19
2024-07-23
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-23
2024-07-25
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-07-25
338Canada Odds of Winning
Trump 66%
Harris 34%
Tie 1%
Odds of winning the Electoral College
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2024-07-01
2024-08-01
2024-09-01
2024-10-01
2024-11-01
Election 2024
Biden drops out
Trump
Harris
Tie
July 25, 2024
2024-06-11
Trump 62%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-11
2024-06-13
Trump 62%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-13
2024-06-15
Trump 62%
Harris 38%
Tie 1%
2024-06-15
2024-06-17
Trump 62%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-17
2024-06-19
Trump 58%
Harris 41%
Tie 1%
2024-06-19
2024-06-21
Trump 59%
Harris 41%
Tie 1%
2024-06-21
2024-06-23
Trump 62%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-23
2024-06-25
Trump 63%
Harris 36%
Tie 1%
2024-06-25
2024-06-27
Trump 63%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-27
2024-06-29
Trump 63%
Harris 37%
Tie <1%
2024-06-29
2024-07-01
Trump 64%
Harris 36%
Tie 1%
2024-07-01
2024-07-03
Trump 65%
Harris 35%
Tie 1%
2024-07-03
2024-07-05
Trump 68%
Harris 32%
Tie <1%
2024-07-05
2024-07-07
Trump 69%
Harris 31%
Tie <1%
2024-07-07
2024-07-09
Trump 69%
Harris 30%
Tie <1%
2024-07-09
2024-07-11
Trump 71%
Harris 28%
Tie <1%
2024-07-11
2024-07-13
Trump 74%
Harris 25%
Tie <1%
2024-07-13
2024-07-15
Trump 73%
Harris 26%
Tie 1%
2024-07-15
2024-07-17
Trump 73%
Harris 26%
Tie 1%
2024-07-17
2024-07-19
Trump 71%
Harris 28%
Tie 1%
2024-07-19
2024-07-23
Trump 69%
Harris 31%
Tie 1%
2024-07-23
2024-07-25
Trump 66%
Harris 34%
Tie 1%
2024-07-25