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Welcome to 338Canada !


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection


Latest update: September 17, 2024
District of Columbia, Safe Harris 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] DC 3 Massachusetts, Safe Harris 11 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MA 11 Maryland, Safe Harris 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MD 10 California, Safe Harris 54 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] CA 54 Vermont, Safe Harris 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] VT 3 Hawaii, Safe Harris 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] HI 4 Washington, Safe Harris 12 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] WA 12 New York, Safe Harris 28 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NY 28 New Jersey, Likely Harris 14 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NJ 14 Connecticut, Likely Harris 7 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] CT 7 Oregon, Likely Harris 8 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] OR 8 Rhode Island, Likely Harris 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] RI 4 Colorado, Likely Harris 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] CO 10 Delaware, Likely Harris 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] DE 3 Illinois, Likely Harris 19 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] IL 19 Maine, Likely Harris 4 Electoral Votes [EV given according to districts] ME* 4 Virginia, Likely Harris 13 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] VA 13 New Hampshire, Leaning Harris 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NH 4 New Mexico, Leaning Harris 5 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NM 5 Minnesota, Leaning Harris 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MN 10 Wisconsin, Toss up 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] WI 10 Michigan, Toss up 15 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MI 15 Pennsylvania, Toss up 19 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] PA 19 North Carolina, Toss up 16 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NC 16 Nevada, Toss up 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NV 6 Arizona, Toss up 11 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] AZ 11 Georgia, Toss up 16 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] GA 16 Florida, Leaning Trump 30 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] FL 30 Texas, Leaning Trump 40 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] TX 40 Alaska, Leaning Trump 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] AK 3 Iowa, Leaning Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] IA 6 Ohio, Likely Trump 17 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] OH 17 Montana, Likely Trump 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MT 4 South Carolina, Likely Trump 9 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] SC 9 Missouri, Likely Trump 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MO 10 Kansas, Likely Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] KS 6 Nebraska, Safe Trump 5 Electoral Votes [EV given according to districts] NE* 5 Mississippi, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MS 6 Louisiana, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] LA 8 Indiana, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] IN 11 Arkansas, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] AR 6 Alabama, Safe Trump 9 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] AL 9 South Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] SD 3 North Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] ND 3 Idaho, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] ID 4 Tennessee, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] TN 11 Utah, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] UT 6 Kentucky, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] KY 8 West Virginia, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] WV 4 Oklahoma, Safe Trump 7 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] OK 7 Wyoming, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] WY 3 WI MI PA NC NV AZ GA Toss-ups District of Columbia ▲268 Trump Harris 270▼ [193-316] [222-345] 270 EV to win Harris 54% Tie 1% ▲46% Trump Odds of winning Electoral College 338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection | September 17, 2024 Trump 46% Harris 54% Tie 1% Odds of winning Electoral College 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Biden drops out Odds of winning Electoral College September 17, 2024 2024-06-11 Trump 62% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-11 2024-06-13 Trump 62% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-13 2024-06-15 Trump 62% Harris 38% Tie 1% 2024-06-15 2024-06-17 Trump 62% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-17 2024-06-19 Trump 58% Harris 41% Tie 1% 2024-06-19 2024-06-21 Trump 59% Harris 41% Tie 1% 2024-06-21 2024-06-23 Trump 62% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-25 Trump 63% Harris 36% Tie 1% 2024-06-25 2024-06-27 Trump 63% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-27 2024-06-29 Trump 63% Harris 37% Tie <1% 2024-06-29 2024-07-01 Trump 64% Harris 36% Tie 1% 2024-07-01 2024-07-03 Trump 65% Harris 35% Tie 1% 2024-07-03 2024-07-05 Trump 68% Harris 32% Tie <1% 2024-07-05 2024-07-07 Trump 69% Harris 31% Tie <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-09 Trump 69% Harris 30% Tie <1% 2024-07-09 2024-07-11 Trump 71% Harris 28% Tie <1% 2024-07-11 2024-07-13 Trump 74% Harris 25% Tie <1% 2024-07-13 2024-07-15 Trump 73% Harris 26% Tie 1% 2024-07-15 2024-07-17 Trump 73% Harris 26% Tie 1% 2024-07-17 2024-07-19 Trump 71% Harris 28% Tie 1% 2024-07-19 2024-07-23 Trump 69% Harris 31% Tie 1% 2024-07-23 2024-07-25 Trump 66% Harris 34% Tie 1% 2024-07-25 2024-07-27 Trump 63% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-07-27 2024-07-29 Trump 63% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-07-29 2024-07-31 Trump 58% Harris 41% Tie 1% 2024-07-31 2024-08-02 Trump 56% Harris 44% Tie 1% 2024-08-02 2024-08-04 Trump 52% Harris 47% Tie 1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-06 Harris 52% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-08-06 2024-08-08 Harris 51% Trump 49% Tie 1% 2024-08-08 2024-08-10 Harris 52% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-08-10 2024-08-12 Harris 55% Trump 44% Tie 1% 2024-08-12 2024-08-14 Harris 54% Trump 45% Tie 1% 2024-08-14 2024-08-16 Harris 53% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-08-16 2024-08-18 Harris 55% Trump 44% Tie 1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-20 Harris 55% Trump 44% Tie 1% 2024-08-20 2024-08-22 Harris 55% Trump 44% Tie 1% 2024-08-22 2024-08-24 Harris 54% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-08-24 2024-08-26 Harris 53% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-08-26 2024-08-28 Harris 50% Trump 49% Tie 1% 2024-08-28 2024-08-30 Harris 53% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-08-30 2024-09-01 Harris 55% Trump 44% Tie 1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-03 Harris 55% Trump 44% Tie 1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-05 Harris 53% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-09-05 2024-09-09 Harris 53% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-09-09 2024-09-11 Harris 53% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-09-11 2024-09-13 Harris 54% Trump 45% Tie 1% 2024-09-13 2024-09-15 Harris 54% Trump 45% Tie 1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-17 Harris 54% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-09-17 [▲▼: movement since previous update]


Odds of winning Electoral College if...

If Trump wins Wisconsin... If Trump wins Wisconsin... If Trump wins Wisconsin... 19% 81% If Trump wins Michigan... If Trump wins Michigan... If Trump wins Michigan... 19% 80% If Trump wins Pennsylvania... If Trump wins Pennsylvania... If Trump wins Pennsylvania... 20% 79% If Trump wins North Carolina... If Trump wins North Carolina... If Trump wins North Carolina... 24% 75% If Trump wins Nevada... If Trump wins Nevada... If Trump wins Nevada... 32% 67% If Trump wins Arizona... If Trump wins Arizona... If Trump wins Arizona... 29% 71% If Trump wins Georgia... If Trump wins Georgia... If Trump wins Georgia... 32% 67% Latest update: September 17, 2024
If Harris wins Wisconsin... If Harris wins Wisconsin... If Harris wins Wisconsin... 72% 27% If Harris wins Michigan... If Harris wins Michigan... If Harris wins Michigan... 79% 20% If Harris wins Pennsylvania... If Harris wins Pennsylvania... If Harris wins Pennsylvania... 85% 14% If Harris wins North Carolina... If Harris wins North Carolina... If Harris wins North Carolina... 85% 15% If Harris wins Nevada... If Harris wins Nevada... If Harris wins Nevada... 78% 22% If Harris wins Arizona... If Harris wins Arizona... If Harris wins Arizona... 82% 17% If Harris wins Georgia... If Harris wins Georgia... If Harris wins Georgia... 90% 9% Latest update: September 17, 2024



[Probability density chart below is a work in progress... More to come soon.] 420 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 Electoral Votes 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 360+ 12% 270-299 20% 330-359 10% 300-329 19% 300-329 14% 330-359 6% 270-299 18% 360+ 1% Trump wins 46% Harris wins 54% September 17, 2024

District of Columbia, Safe Harris 3 Electoral Votes DC DC DC Massachusetts, Safe Harris 11 Electoral Votes MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA Maryland, Safe Harris 10 Electoral Votes MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD California, Safe Harris 54 Electoral Votes CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA Vermont, Safe Harris 3 Electoral Votes VT VT VT Hawaii, Safe Harris 4 Electoral Votes HI HI HI HI Washington, Safe Harris 12 Electoral Votes WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA New York, Safe Harris 28 Electoral Votes NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY Maine-1, Safe Harris 1 Electoral Vote ME1 New Jersey, Likely Harris 14 Electoral Votes NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ Connecticut, Likely Harris 7 Electoral Votes CT CT CT CT CT CT CT Oregon, Likely Harris 8 Electoral Votes OR OR OR OR OR OR OR OR Rhode Island, Likely Harris 4 Electoral Votes RI RI RI RI Colorado, Likely Harris 10 Electoral Votes CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO Delaware, Likely Harris 3 Electoral Votes DE DE DE Illinois, Likely Harris 19 Electoral Votes IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL Maine, Likely Harris 2 Electoral Votes (*Plus one EV per congressional district) ME ME Virginia, Likely Harris 13 Electoral Votes VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA New Hampshire, Leaning Harris 4 Electoral Votes NH NH NH NH New Mexico, Leaning Harris 5 Electoral Votes NM NM NM NM NM Minnesota, Leaning Harris 10 Electoral Votes MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN Nebraska-2, Leaning Harris 1 Electoral Vote NE2 Wisconsin, Toss up 10 Electoral Votes WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI Michigan, Toss up 15 Electoral Votes MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI Pennsylvania, Toss up 19 Electoral Votes PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA Maine-2, Toss up 1 Electoral Vote ME2 North Carolina, Toss up 16 Electoral Votes NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Nevada, Toss up 6 Electoral Votes NV NV NV NV NV NV Arizona, Toss up 11 Electoral Votes AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ Georgia, Toss up 16 Electoral Votes GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA Florida, Leaning Trump 30 Electoral Votes FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL Texas, Leaning Trump 40 Electoral Votes TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX Alaska, Leaning Trump 3 Electoral Votes AK AK AK Iowa, Leaning Trump 6 Electoral Votes IA IA IA IA IA IA Ohio, Likely Trump 17 Electoral Votes OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH Nebraska-1, Likely Trump 1 Electoral Vote NE1 Montana, Likely Trump 4 Electoral Votes MT MT MT MT South Carolina, Likely Trump 9 Electoral Votes SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC Missouri, Likely Trump 10 Electoral Votes MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO Kansas, Likely Trump 6 Electoral Votes KS KS KS KS KS KS Nebraska, Safe Trump 2 Electoral Votes (*Plus one EV per congressional district) NE NE Mississippi, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes MS MS MS MS MS MS Louisiana, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA Indiana, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN Arkansas, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes AR AR AR AR AR AR Alabama, Safe Trump 9 Electoral Votes AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL South Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes SD SD SD North Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes ND ND ND Idaho, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes ID ID ID ID Tennessee, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN Utah, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes UT UT UT UT UT UT Kentucky, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes KY KY KY KY KY KY KY KY West Virginia, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes WV WV WV WV Oklahoma, Safe Trump 7 Electoral Votes OK OK OK OK OK OK OK Wyoming, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes WY WY WY Nebraska-3, Safe Trump 1 Electoral Vote NE3 DC DC DC MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA VT VT VT HI HI HI HI WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY ME1 NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ CT CT CT CT CT CT CT OR OR OR OR OR OR OR OR RI RI RI RI CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO DE DE DE IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL ME ME VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA NH NH NH NH NM NM NM NM NM MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN NE2 WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA ME2 NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NV NV NV NV NV NV AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX AK AK AK IA IA IA IA IA IA OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH NE1 MT MT MT MT SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO KS KS KS KS KS KS NE NE MS MS MS MS MS MS LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN AR AR AR AR AR AR AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL SD SD SD ND ND ND ID ID ID ID TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN UT UT UT UT UT UT KY KY KY KY KY KY KY KY WV WV WV WV OK OK OK OK OK OK OK WY WY WY NE3 270 EV to win 338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection Latest update: September 17, 2024 ▲268 Trump [193-316] Harris 270▼ [222-345]
80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 District de Columbia, Harris solide 3 Grands Électeurs DC+84 Vermont, Harris solide 3 Grands Électeurs VT+36 Massachusetts, Harris solide 11 Grands Électeurs MA+33 Maryland, Harris solide 10 Grands Électeurs MD+29 Californie, Harris solide 54 Grands Électeurs CA+27 Hawaii, Harris solide 4 Grands Électeurs HI+26 Maine-1, Harris solide 1 Grand Électeur ME1+25 Washington, Harris solide 12 Grands Électeurs WA+20 Rhode Island, Harris probable 4 Grands Électeurs RI+18 New York, Harris solide 28 Grands Électeurs NY+16 Delaware, Harris probable 3 Grands Électeurs DE+16 Connecticut, Harris probable 7 Grands Électeurs CT+15 Oregon, Harris probable 8 Grands Électeurs OR+15 New Jersey, Harris probable 14 Grands Électeurs NJ+15 Maine, Harris probable 2 Grands Électeurs (*plus un GÉ par district) ME+13 Colorado, Harris probable 10 Grands Électeurs CO+12 Illinois, Harris probable 19 Grands Électeurs IL+11 New Hampshire, Harris enclin 4 Grands Électeurs NH+9 Virginie, Harris probable 13 Grands Électeurs VA+8 Nouveau-Mexique, Harris enclin 5 Grands Électeurs NM+8 Minnesota, Harris enclin 10 Grands Électeurs MN+7 Nebraska-2, Harris enclin 1 Grand Électeur NE2+5 Wisconsin, Pivot 10 Grands Électeurs WI+3 Michigan, Pivot 15 Grands Électeurs MI+1 Tipping point: PA Pennsylvanie, Pivot 19 Grands Électeurs PA+0.2 Maine-2, Pivot 1 Grand Électeur ME2+0.0 Caroline du Nord, Pivot 16 Grands Électeurs NC+0.2 Arizona, Pivot 11 Grands Électeurs AZ+0.5 Nevada, Pivot 6 Grands Électeurs NV+0.5 Georgie, Pivot 16 Grands Électeurs GA+2 Floride, Trump enclin 30 Grands Électeurs FL+5 Texas, Trump enclin 40 Grands Électeurs TX+5 Iowa, Trump enclin 6 Grands Électeurs IA+7 Alaska, Trump enclin 3 Grands Électeurs AK+8 Ohio, Trump probable 17 Grands Électeurs OH+8 Caroline du Sud, Trump probable 9 Grands Électeurs SC+13 Missouri, Trump probable 10 Grands Électeurs MO+14 Nebraska-1, Trump probable 1 Grand Électeur NE1+14 Kansas, Trump probable 6 Grands Électeurs KS+16 Montana, Trump probable 4 Grands Électeurs MT+17 Louisiane, Trump solide 8 Grands Électeurs LA+19 Indiana, Trump solide 11 Grands Électeurs IN+19 Mississippi, Trump solide 6 Grands Électeurs MS+20 Nebraska, Trump solide 2 Grands Électeurs (*plus un GÉ par district) NE+20 Arkansas, Trump solide 6 Grands Électeurs AR+22 Tennessee, Trump solide 11 Grands Électeurs TN+23 Alabama, Trump solide 9 Grands Électeurs AL+24 Utah, Trump solide 6 Grands Électeurs UT+26 Kentucky, Trump solide 8 Grands Électeurs KY+27 Idaho, Trump solide 4 Grands Électeurs ID+28 Dakota du Sud, Trump solide 3 Grands Électeurs SD+31 Dakota du Nord, Trump solide 3 Grands Électeurs ND+32 Oklahoma, Trump solide 7 Grands Électeurs OK+33 Virginie Occidentale, Trump solide 4 Grands Électeurs WV+34 Wyoming, Trump solide 3 Grands Électeurs WY+43 Nebraska-3, Trump solide 1 Grand Électeur NE3+52 The Tipping Point District of Columbia, Safe Harris 3 Electoral Votes DC+84 Vermont, Safe Harris 3 Electoral Votes VT+36 Massachusetts, Safe Harris 11 Electoral Votes MA+33 Maryland, Safe Harris 10 Electoral Votes MD+29 California, Safe Harris 54 Electoral Votes CA+27 Hawaii, Safe Harris 4 Electoral Votes HI+26 Maine-1, Safe Harris 1 Electoral Vote ME1+25 Washington, Safe Harris 12 Electoral Votes WA+20 Rhode Island, Likely Harris 4 Electoral Votes RI+18 New York, Safe Harris 28 Electoral Votes NY+16 Delaware, Likely Harris 3 Electoral Votes DE+16 Connecticut, Likely Harris 7 Electoral Votes CT+15 Oregon, Likely Harris 8 Electoral Votes OR+15 New Jersey, Likely Harris 14 Electoral Votes NJ+15 Maine, Likely Harris 2 Electoral Votes (*Plus one EV per congressional district) ME+13 Colorado, Likely Harris 10 Electoral Votes CO+12 Illinois, Likely Harris 19 Electoral Votes IL+11 New Hampshire, Leaning Harris 4 Electoral Votes NH+9 Virginia, Likely Harris 13 Electoral Votes VA+8 New Mexico, Leaning Harris 5 Electoral Votes NM+8 Minnesota, Leaning Harris 10 Electoral Votes MN+7 Nebraska-2, Leaning Harris 1 Electoral Vote NE2+5 Wisconsin, Toss up 10 Electoral Votes WI+3 Michigan, Toss up 15 Electoral Votes MI+1 Tipping point: PA Pennsylvania, Toss up 19 Electoral Votes PA+0.2 Maine-2, Toss up 1 Electoral Vote ME2+0.0 North Carolina, Toss up 16 Electoral Votes NC+0.2 Arizona, Toss up 11 Electoral Votes AZ+0.5 Nevada, Toss up 6 Electoral Votes NV+0.5 Georgia, Toss up 16 Electoral Votes GA+2 Florida, Leaning Trump 30 Electoral Votes FL+5 Texas, Leaning Trump 40 Electoral Votes TX+5 Iowa, Leaning Trump 6 Electoral Votes IA+7 Alaska, Leaning Trump 3 Electoral Votes AK+8 Ohio, Likely Trump 17 Electoral Votes OH+8 South Carolina, Likely Trump 9 Electoral Votes SC+13 Missouri, Likely Trump 10 Electoral Votes MO+14 Nebraska-1, Likely Trump 1 Electoral Vote NE1+14 Kansas, Likely Trump 6 Electoral Votes KS+16 Montana, Likely Trump 4 Electoral Votes MT+17 Louisiana, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes LA+19 Indiana, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes IN+19 Mississippi, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes MS+20 Nebraska, Safe Trump 2 Electoral Votes (*Plus one EV per congressional district) NE+20 Arkansas, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes AR+22 Tennessee, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes TN+23 Alabama, Safe Trump 9 Electoral Votes AL+24 Utah, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes UT+26 Kentucky, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes KY+27 Idaho, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes ID+28 South Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes SD+31 North Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes ND+32 Oklahoma, Safe Trump 7 Electoral Votes OK+33 West Virginia, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes WV+34 Wyoming, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes WY+43 Nebraska-3, Safe Trump 1 Electoral Vote NE3+52 The Tipping Point September 17, 2024

Electoral College Projection

Trump 268 [193-316] Harris 270 [222-345] Seat projection 330 300 270 240 210 180 150 120 90 60 30 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Biden drops out Trump Harris 270 EV to win September 17, 2024 2024-06-11 Trump 278 Harris 260 2024-06-11 2024-06-13 Trump 297 Harris 241 2024-06-13 2024-06-15 Trump 287 Harris 251 2024-06-15 2024-06-17 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-06-17 2024-06-19 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-06-19 2024-06-21 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-06-21 2024-06-23 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-06-23 2024-06-25 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-06-25 2024-06-27 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-06-27 2024-06-29 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-06-29 2024-07-01 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-01 2024-07-03 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-03 2024-07-05 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-05 2024-07-07 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-07 2024-07-09 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-09 2024-07-11 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-11 2024-07-13 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-13 2024-07-15 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-15 2024-07-17 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-17 2024-07-19 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-19 2024-07-23 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-23 2024-07-25 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-07-25 2024-07-27 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-07-27 2024-07-29 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-07-29 2024-07-31 Trump 287 Harris 251 2024-07-31 2024-08-02 Trump 287 Harris 251 2024-08-02 2024-08-04 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-08-04 2024-08-06 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-08-06 2024-08-08 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-08-08 2024-08-10 Harris 281 Trump 257 2024-08-10 2024-08-12 Harris 281 Trump 257 2024-08-12 2024-08-14 Harris 281 Trump 257 2024-08-14 2024-08-16 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-08-16 2024-08-18 Harris 281 Trump 257 2024-08-18 2024-08-20 Harris 281 Trump 257 2024-08-20 2024-08-22 Harris 298 Trump 240 2024-08-22 2024-08-24 Harris 298 Trump 240 2024-08-24 2024-08-26 Harris 298 Trump 240 2024-08-26 2024-08-28 Harris 282 Trump 256 2024-08-28 2024-08-30 Harris 277 Trump 261 2024-08-30 2024-09-01 Harris 277 Trump 261 2024-09-01 2024-09-03 Harris 293 Trump 245 2024-09-03 2024-09-05 Harris 271 Trump 267 2024-09-05 2024-09-09 Trump 270 Harris 268 2024-09-09 2024-09-11 Trump 270 Harris 268 2024-09-11 2024-09-13 Harris 287 Trump 251 2024-09-13 2024-09-15 Harris 287 Trump 251 2024-09-15 2024-09-17 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-09-17