Welcome to 338Canada !
The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls,
electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at
Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.
Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for
L'actualité magazine and a contributor to
Politico Canada , as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts
The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.
Please subscribe to the
338Canada newsletter here , and enjoy the website!
338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection
Latest update: September 17, 2024
District of Columbia, Safe Harris
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
DC 3
Massachusetts, Safe Harris
11 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MA 11
Maryland, Safe Harris
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MD 10
California, Safe Harris
54 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
CA 54
Vermont, Safe Harris
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
VT 3
Hawaii, Safe Harris
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
HI 4
Washington, Safe Harris
12 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
WA 12
New York, Safe Harris
28 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NY 28
New Jersey, Likely Harris
14 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NJ 14
Connecticut, Likely Harris
7 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
CT 7
Oregon, Likely Harris
8 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
OR 8
Rhode Island, Likely Harris
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
RI 4
Colorado, Likely Harris
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
CO 10
Delaware, Likely Harris
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
DE 3
Illinois, Likely Harris
19 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
IL 19
Maine, Likely Harris
4 Electoral Votes
[EV given according to districts]
ME* 4
Virginia, Likely Harris
13 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
VA 13
New Hampshire, Leaning Harris
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NH 4
New Mexico, Leaning Harris
5 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NM 5
Minnesota, Leaning Harris
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MN 10
Wisconsin, Toss up
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
WI 10
Michigan, Toss up
15 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MI 15
Pennsylvania, Toss up
19 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
PA 19
North Carolina, Toss up
16 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NC 16
Nevada, Toss up
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NV 6
Arizona, Toss up
11 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
AZ 11
Georgia, Toss up
16 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
GA 16
Florida, Leaning Trump
30 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
FL 30
Texas, Leaning Trump
40 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
TX 40
Alaska, Leaning Trump
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
AK 3
Iowa, Leaning Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
IA 6
Ohio, Likely Trump
17 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
OH 17
Montana, Likely Trump
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MT 4
South Carolina, Likely Trump
9 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
SC 9
Missouri, Likely Trump
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MO 10
Kansas, Likely Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
KS 6
Nebraska, Safe Trump
5 Electoral Votes
[EV given according to districts]
NE* 5
Mississippi, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MS 6
Louisiana, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
LA 8
Indiana, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
IN 11
Arkansas, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
AR 6
Alabama, Safe Trump
9 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
AL 9
South Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
SD 3
North Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
ND 3
Idaho, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
ID 4
Tennessee, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
TN 11
Utah, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
UT 6
Kentucky, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
KY 8
West Virginia, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
WV 4
Oklahoma, Safe Trump
7 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
OK 7
Wyoming, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
WY 3
WI
MI
PA
NC
NV
AZ
GA
Toss-ups
District of Columbia
▲268 Trump
Harris 270▼
[193-316]
[222-345]
270 EV to win
Harris 54%
Tie 1%
▲46% Trump
Odds of winning Electoral College
338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection | September 17, 2024
Trump 46%
Harris 54%
Tie 1%
Odds of winning Electoral College
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2024-07-01
2024-08-01
2024-09-01
2024-10-01
2024-11-01
Election 2024
Biden drops out
Odds of winning Electoral College
September 17, 2024
2024-06-11
Trump 62%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-11
2024-06-13
Trump 62%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-13
2024-06-15
Trump 62%
Harris 38%
Tie 1%
2024-06-15
2024-06-17
Trump 62%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-17
2024-06-19
Trump 58%
Harris 41%
Tie 1%
2024-06-19
2024-06-21
Trump 59%
Harris 41%
Tie 1%
2024-06-21
2024-06-23
Trump 62%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-23
2024-06-25
Trump 63%
Harris 36%
Tie 1%
2024-06-25
2024-06-27
Trump 63%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-27
2024-06-29
Trump 63%
Harris 37%
Tie <1%
2024-06-29
2024-07-01
Trump 64%
Harris 36%
Tie 1%
2024-07-01
2024-07-03
Trump 65%
Harris 35%
Tie 1%
2024-07-03
2024-07-05
Trump 68%
Harris 32%
Tie <1%
2024-07-05
2024-07-07
Trump 69%
Harris 31%
Tie <1%
2024-07-07
2024-07-09
Trump 69%
Harris 30%
Tie <1%
2024-07-09
2024-07-11
Trump 71%
Harris 28%
Tie <1%
2024-07-11
2024-07-13
Trump 74%
Harris 25%
Tie <1%
2024-07-13
2024-07-15
Trump 73%
Harris 26%
Tie 1%
2024-07-15
2024-07-17
Trump 73%
Harris 26%
Tie 1%
2024-07-17
2024-07-19
Trump 71%
Harris 28%
Tie 1%
2024-07-19
2024-07-23
Trump 69%
Harris 31%
Tie 1%
2024-07-23
2024-07-25
Trump 66%
Harris 34%
Tie 1%
2024-07-25
2024-07-27
Trump 63%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-07-27
2024-07-29
Trump 63%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-07-29
2024-07-31
Trump 58%
Harris 41%
Tie 1%
2024-07-31
2024-08-02
Trump 56%
Harris 44%
Tie 1%
2024-08-02
2024-08-04
Trump 52%
Harris 47%
Tie 1%
2024-08-04
2024-08-06
Harris 52%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-08-06
2024-08-08
Harris 51%
Trump 49%
Tie 1%
2024-08-08
2024-08-10
Harris 52%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-08-10
2024-08-12
Harris 55%
Trump 44%
Tie 1%
2024-08-12
2024-08-14
Harris 54%
Trump 45%
Tie 1%
2024-08-14
2024-08-16
Harris 53%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-08-16
2024-08-18
Harris 55%
Trump 44%
Tie 1%
2024-08-18
2024-08-20
Harris 55%
Trump 44%
Tie 1%
2024-08-20
2024-08-22
Harris 55%
Trump 44%
Tie 1%
2024-08-22
2024-08-24
Harris 54%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-08-24
2024-08-26
Harris 53%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-08-26
2024-08-28
Harris 50%
Trump 49%
Tie 1%
2024-08-28
2024-08-30
Harris 53%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-08-30
2024-09-01
Harris 55%
Trump 44%
Tie 1%
2024-09-01
2024-09-03
Harris 55%
Trump 44%
Tie 1%
2024-09-03
2024-09-05
Harris 53%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-09-05
2024-09-09
Harris 53%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-09-09
2024-09-11
Harris 53%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-09-11
2024-09-13
Harris 54%
Trump 45%
Tie 1%
2024-09-13
2024-09-15
Harris 54%
Trump 45%
Tie 1%
2024-09-15
2024-09-17
Harris 54%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-09-17
[▲▼: movement since previous update]
Odds of winning Electoral College if...
If Trump wins Wisconsin...
If Trump wins Wisconsin...
If Trump wins Wisconsin...
19%
81%
If Trump wins Michigan...
If Trump wins Michigan...
If Trump wins Michigan...
19%
80%
If Trump wins Pennsylvania...
If Trump wins Pennsylvania...
If Trump wins Pennsylvania...
20%
79%
If Trump wins North Carolina...
If Trump wins North Carolina...
If Trump wins North Carolina...
24%
75%
If Trump wins Nevada...
If Trump wins Nevada...
If Trump wins Nevada...
32%
67%
If Trump wins Arizona...
If Trump wins Arizona...
If Trump wins Arizona...
29%
71%
If Trump wins Georgia...
If Trump wins Georgia...
If Trump wins Georgia...
32%
67%
Latest update: September 17, 2024
If Harris wins Wisconsin...
If Harris wins Wisconsin...
If Harris wins Wisconsin...
72%
27%
If Harris wins Michigan...
If Harris wins Michigan...
If Harris wins Michigan...
79%
20%
If Harris wins Pennsylvania...
If Harris wins Pennsylvania...
If Harris wins Pennsylvania...
85%
14%
If Harris wins North Carolina...
If Harris wins North Carolina...
If Harris wins North Carolina...
85%
15%
If Harris wins Nevada...
If Harris wins Nevada...
If Harris wins Nevada...
78%
22%
If Harris wins Arizona...
If Harris wins Arizona...
If Harris wins Arizona...
82%
17%
If Harris wins Georgia...
If Harris wins Georgia...
If Harris wins Georgia...
90%
9%
Latest update: September 17, 2024
[Probability density chart below is a work in progress... More to come soon.]
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
Electoral Votes
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
360+
12%
270-299
20%
330-359
10%
300-329
19%
300-329
14%
330-359
6%
270-299
18%
360+
1%
Trump wins 46%
Harris wins 54%
September 17, 2024
District of Columbia, Safe Harris
3 Electoral Votes
DC
DC
DC
Massachusetts, Safe Harris
11 Electoral Votes
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
Maryland, Safe Harris
10 Electoral Votes
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
California, Safe Harris
54 Electoral Votes
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
Vermont, Safe Harris
3 Electoral Votes
VT
VT
VT
Hawaii, Safe Harris
4 Electoral Votes
HI
HI
HI
HI
Washington, Safe Harris
12 Electoral Votes
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
New York, Safe Harris
28 Electoral Votes
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
Maine-1, Safe Harris
1 Electoral Vote
ME1
New Jersey, Likely Harris
14 Electoral Votes
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
Connecticut, Likely Harris
7 Electoral Votes
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
Oregon, Likely Harris
8 Electoral Votes
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
Rhode Island, Likely Harris
4 Electoral Votes
RI
RI
RI
RI
Colorado, Likely Harris
10 Electoral Votes
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
Delaware, Likely Harris
3 Electoral Votes
DE
DE
DE
Illinois, Likely Harris
19 Electoral Votes
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
Maine, Likely Harris
2 Electoral Votes
(*Plus one EV per congressional district)
ME
ME
Virginia, Likely Harris
13 Electoral Votes
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
New Hampshire, Leaning Harris
4 Electoral Votes
NH
NH
NH
NH
New Mexico, Leaning Harris
5 Electoral Votes
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
Minnesota, Leaning Harris
10 Electoral Votes
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
Nebraska-2, Leaning Harris
1 Electoral Vote
NE2
Wisconsin, Toss up
10 Electoral Votes
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
Michigan, Toss up
15 Electoral Votes
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
Pennsylvania, Toss up
19 Electoral Votes
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
Maine-2, Toss up
1 Electoral Vote
ME2
North Carolina, Toss up
16 Electoral Votes
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
Nevada, Toss up
6 Electoral Votes
NV
NV
NV
NV
NV
NV
Arizona, Toss up
11 Electoral Votes
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
Georgia, Toss up
16 Electoral Votes
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
Florida, Leaning Trump
30 Electoral Votes
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
Texas, Leaning Trump
40 Electoral Votes
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
Alaska, Leaning Trump
3 Electoral Votes
AK
AK
AK
Iowa, Leaning Trump
6 Electoral Votes
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
Ohio, Likely Trump
17 Electoral Votes
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
Nebraska-1, Likely Trump
1 Electoral Vote
NE1
Montana, Likely Trump
4 Electoral Votes
MT
MT
MT
MT
South Carolina, Likely Trump
9 Electoral Votes
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
Missouri, Likely Trump
10 Electoral Votes
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
Kansas, Likely Trump
6 Electoral Votes
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
Nebraska, Safe Trump
2 Electoral Votes
(*Plus one EV per congressional district)
NE
NE
Mississippi, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
Louisiana, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
Indiana, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
Arkansas, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
AR
AR
AR
AR
AR
AR
Alabama, Safe Trump
9 Electoral Votes
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
South Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
SD
SD
SD
North Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
ND
ND
ND
Idaho, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
ID
ID
ID
ID
Tennessee, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
Utah, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
UT
UT
UT
UT
UT
UT
Kentucky, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
West Virginia, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
WV
WV
WV
WV
Oklahoma, Safe Trump
7 Electoral Votes
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
Wyoming, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
WY
WY
WY
Nebraska-3, Safe Trump
1 Electoral Vote
NE3
DC
DC
DC
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
VT
VT
VT
HI
HI
HI
HI
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
ME1
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
RI
RI
RI
RI
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
DE
DE
DE
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
ME
ME
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
NH
NH
NH
NH
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
NE2
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
ME2
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NV
NV
NV
NV
NV
NV
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
AK
AK
AK
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
NE1
MT
MT
MT
MT
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
NE
NE
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
AR
AR
AR
AR
AR
AR
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
SD
SD
SD
ND
ND
ND
ID
ID
ID
ID
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
UT
UT
UT
UT
UT
UT
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
WV
WV
WV
WV
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
WY
WY
WY
NE3
270 EV to win
338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection
Latest update: September 17, 2024
▲268 Trump
[193-316]
Harris 270▼
[222-345]
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
District de Columbia, Harris solide
3 Grands Électeurs
DC+84
Vermont, Harris solide
3 Grands Électeurs
VT+36
Massachusetts, Harris solide
11 Grands Électeurs
MA+33
Maryland, Harris solide
10 Grands Électeurs
MD+29
Californie, Harris solide
54 Grands Électeurs
CA+27
Hawaii, Harris solide
4 Grands Électeurs
HI+26
Maine-1, Harris solide
1 Grand Électeur
ME1+25
Washington, Harris solide
12 Grands Électeurs
WA+20
Rhode Island, Harris probable
4 Grands Électeurs
RI+18
New York, Harris solide
28 Grands Électeurs
NY+16
Delaware, Harris probable
3 Grands Électeurs
DE+16
Connecticut, Harris probable
7 Grands Électeurs
CT+15
Oregon, Harris probable
8 Grands Électeurs
OR+15
New Jersey, Harris probable
14 Grands Électeurs
NJ+15
Maine, Harris probable
2 Grands Électeurs
(*plus un GÉ par district)
ME+13
Colorado, Harris probable
10 Grands Électeurs
CO+12
Illinois, Harris probable
19 Grands Électeurs
IL+11
New Hampshire, Harris enclin
4 Grands Électeurs
NH+9
Virginie, Harris probable
13 Grands Électeurs
VA+8
Nouveau-Mexique, Harris enclin
5 Grands Électeurs
NM+8
Minnesota, Harris enclin
10 Grands Électeurs
MN+7
Nebraska-2, Harris enclin
1 Grand Électeur
NE2+5
Wisconsin, Pivot
10 Grands Électeurs
WI+3
Michigan, Pivot
15 Grands Électeurs
MI+1
Tipping point: PA
Pennsylvanie, Pivot
19 Grands Électeurs
PA+0.2
Maine-2, Pivot
1 Grand Électeur
ME2+0.0
Caroline du Nord, Pivot
16 Grands Électeurs
NC+0.2
Arizona, Pivot
11 Grands Électeurs
AZ+0.5
Nevada, Pivot
6 Grands Électeurs
NV+0.5
Georgie, Pivot
16 Grands Électeurs
GA+2
Floride, Trump enclin
30 Grands Électeurs
FL+5
Texas, Trump enclin
40 Grands Électeurs
TX+5
Iowa, Trump enclin
6 Grands Électeurs
IA+7
Alaska, Trump enclin
3 Grands Électeurs
AK+8
Ohio, Trump probable
17 Grands Électeurs
OH+8
Caroline du Sud, Trump probable
9 Grands Électeurs
SC+13
Missouri, Trump probable
10 Grands Électeurs
MO+14
Nebraska-1, Trump probable
1 Grand Électeur
NE1+14
Kansas, Trump probable
6 Grands Électeurs
KS+16
Montana, Trump probable
4 Grands Électeurs
MT+17
Louisiane, Trump solide
8 Grands Électeurs
LA+19
Indiana, Trump solide
11 Grands Électeurs
IN+19
Mississippi, Trump solide
6 Grands Électeurs
MS+20
Nebraska, Trump solide
2 Grands Électeurs
(*plus un GÉ par district)
NE+20
Arkansas, Trump solide
6 Grands Électeurs
AR+22
Tennessee, Trump solide
11 Grands Électeurs
TN+23
Alabama, Trump solide
9 Grands Électeurs
AL+24
Utah, Trump solide
6 Grands Électeurs
UT+26
Kentucky, Trump solide
8 Grands Électeurs
KY+27
Idaho, Trump solide
4 Grands Électeurs
ID+28
Dakota du Sud, Trump solide
3 Grands Électeurs
SD+31
Dakota du Nord, Trump solide
3 Grands Électeurs
ND+32
Oklahoma, Trump solide
7 Grands Électeurs
OK+33
Virginie Occidentale, Trump solide
4 Grands Électeurs
WV+34
Wyoming, Trump solide
3 Grands Électeurs
WY+43
Nebraska-3, Trump solide
1 Grand Électeur
NE3+52
The Tipping Point
District of Columbia, Safe Harris
3 Electoral Votes
DC+84
Vermont, Safe Harris
3 Electoral Votes
VT+36
Massachusetts, Safe Harris
11 Electoral Votes
MA+33
Maryland, Safe Harris
10 Electoral Votes
MD+29
California, Safe Harris
54 Electoral Votes
CA+27
Hawaii, Safe Harris
4 Electoral Votes
HI+26
Maine-1, Safe Harris
1 Electoral Vote
ME1+25
Washington, Safe Harris
12 Electoral Votes
WA+20
Rhode Island, Likely Harris
4 Electoral Votes
RI+18
New York, Safe Harris
28 Electoral Votes
NY+16
Delaware, Likely Harris
3 Electoral Votes
DE+16
Connecticut, Likely Harris
7 Electoral Votes
CT+15
Oregon, Likely Harris
8 Electoral Votes
OR+15
New Jersey, Likely Harris
14 Electoral Votes
NJ+15
Maine, Likely Harris
2 Electoral Votes
(*Plus one EV per congressional district)
ME+13
Colorado, Likely Harris
10 Electoral Votes
CO+12
Illinois, Likely Harris
19 Electoral Votes
IL+11
New Hampshire, Leaning Harris
4 Electoral Votes
NH+9
Virginia, Likely Harris
13 Electoral Votes
VA+8
New Mexico, Leaning Harris
5 Electoral Votes
NM+8
Minnesota, Leaning Harris
10 Electoral Votes
MN+7
Nebraska-2, Leaning Harris
1 Electoral Vote
NE2+5
Wisconsin, Toss up
10 Electoral Votes
WI+3
Michigan, Toss up
15 Electoral Votes
MI+1
Tipping point: PA
Pennsylvania, Toss up
19 Electoral Votes
PA+0.2
Maine-2, Toss up
1 Electoral Vote
ME2+0.0
North Carolina, Toss up
16 Electoral Votes
NC+0.2
Arizona, Toss up
11 Electoral Votes
AZ+0.5
Nevada, Toss up
6 Electoral Votes
NV+0.5
Georgia, Toss up
16 Electoral Votes
GA+2
Florida, Leaning Trump
30 Electoral Votes
FL+5
Texas, Leaning Trump
40 Electoral Votes
TX+5
Iowa, Leaning Trump
6 Electoral Votes
IA+7
Alaska, Leaning Trump
3 Electoral Votes
AK+8
Ohio, Likely Trump
17 Electoral Votes
OH+8
South Carolina, Likely Trump
9 Electoral Votes
SC+13
Missouri, Likely Trump
10 Electoral Votes
MO+14
Nebraska-1, Likely Trump
1 Electoral Vote
NE1+14
Kansas, Likely Trump
6 Electoral Votes
KS+16
Montana, Likely Trump
4 Electoral Votes
MT+17
Louisiana, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
LA+19
Indiana, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
IN+19
Mississippi, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
MS+20
Nebraska, Safe Trump
2 Electoral Votes
(*Plus one EV per congressional district)
NE+20
Arkansas, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
AR+22
Tennessee, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
TN+23
Alabama, Safe Trump
9 Electoral Votes
AL+24
Utah, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
UT+26
Kentucky, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
KY+27
Idaho, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
ID+28
South Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
SD+31
North Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
ND+32
Oklahoma, Safe Trump
7 Electoral Votes
OK+33
West Virginia, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
WV+34
Wyoming, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
WY+43
Nebraska-3, Safe Trump
1 Electoral Vote
NE3+52
The Tipping Point
September 17, 2024
Electoral College Projection
Trump 268 [193-316]
Harris 270 [222-345]
Seat projection
330
300
270
240
210
180
150
120
90
60
30
2024-07-01
2024-08-01
2024-09-01
2024-10-01
2024-11-01
Election 2024
Biden drops out
Trump
Harris
270 EV to win
September 17, 2024
2024-06-11
Trump 278
Harris 260
2024-06-11
2024-06-13
Trump 297
Harris 241
2024-06-13
2024-06-15
Trump 287
Harris 251
2024-06-15
2024-06-17
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-06-17
2024-06-19
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-06-19
2024-06-21
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-06-21
2024-06-23
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-06-23
2024-06-25
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-06-25
2024-06-27
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-06-27
2024-06-29
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-06-29
2024-07-01
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-01
2024-07-03
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-03
2024-07-05
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-05
2024-07-07
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-07
2024-07-09
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-09
2024-07-11
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-11
2024-07-13
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-13
2024-07-15
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-15
2024-07-17
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-17
2024-07-19
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-19
2024-07-23
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-23
2024-07-25
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-07-25
2024-07-27
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-07-27
2024-07-29
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-07-29
2024-07-31
Trump 287
Harris 251
2024-07-31
2024-08-02
Trump 287
Harris 251
2024-08-02
2024-08-04
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-08-04
2024-08-06
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-08-06
2024-08-08
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-08-08
2024-08-10
Harris 281
Trump 257
2024-08-10
2024-08-12
Harris 281
Trump 257
2024-08-12
2024-08-14
Harris 281
Trump 257
2024-08-14
2024-08-16
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-08-16
2024-08-18
Harris 281
Trump 257
2024-08-18
2024-08-20
Harris 281
Trump 257
2024-08-20
2024-08-22
Harris 298
Trump 240
2024-08-22
2024-08-24
Harris 298
Trump 240
2024-08-24
2024-08-26
Harris 298
Trump 240
2024-08-26
2024-08-28
Harris 282
Trump 256
2024-08-28
2024-08-30
Harris 277
Trump 261
2024-08-30
2024-09-01
Harris 277
Trump 261
2024-09-01
2024-09-03
Harris 293
Trump 245
2024-09-03
2024-09-05
Harris 271
Trump 267
2024-09-05
2024-09-09
Trump 270
Harris 268
2024-09-09
2024-09-11
Trump 270
Harris 268
2024-09-11
2024-09-13
Harris 287
Trump 251
2024-09-13
2024-09-15
Harris 287
Trump 251
2024-09-15
2024-09-17
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-09-17