338Canada.com - USA - Poll Analysis and Electoral Projections


Welcome to 338Canada - USA!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of P.J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

P.J. Fournier is a political contributor for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and he is a political analyst for CTV Montreal and CJAD 800.
You can subscribe to the 338Canada Facebook page, as well as follow P.J.Fournier on Twitter. Thanks for your visit!






338Canada 2020 U.S. Presidential Election Projection


Latest update: September 27, 2020

Biden Trump
50.3% ± 5.4% 43.5% ± 5.4%




Breakdown by state


Latest update: September 27, 2020

Your browser does not support the HTML5 canvas tag.



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Changes since last update
◆ Party flip / ▲ Upgraded, safer / ▼ Downgraded, less safe


Dem safe: 182 Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Dem likely: 24 Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Dem leaning: 69 Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Dem toss up: 62 Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Rep toss up: 37 Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Rep leaning: 63 Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Rep likely: 23 Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Rep safe: 78 Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.

Dem safe: 182
Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Dem likely: 24
Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Dem leaning: 69
Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Dem toss up: 62
Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Rep toss up: 37
Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Rep leaning: 63
Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Rep likely: 23
Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Rep safe: 78
Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.




The Tipping Point Graph








Odds of winning the Electoral College


Latest update: September 27, 2020

Biden Trump
75.0% 24.6%







Electoral College Projection


Latest update: September 27, 2020

Biden Trump
327 ± 136 211 ± 136





Interactive map