338Canada.com - USA - Poll Analysis and Electoral Projections


Welcome to 338Canada - USA!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of P.J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

P.J. Fournier is a political contributor for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and he is a political analyst for CTV Montreal and CJAD 800.
You can subscribe to the 338Canada Facebook page, as well as follow P.J.Fournier on Twitter. Thanks for your visit!






338Canada 2020 U.S. Presidential Election Projection


Latest update: November 3, 2020 [FINAL]

Biden Trump
52.0% ± 5.4% 43.4% ± 5.4%




Breakdown by state


Latest update: November 3, 2020 [FINAL]

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Dem safe: 182 Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Dem likely: 45 Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Dem leaning: 52 Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Dem toss up: 71 Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Rep toss up: 62 Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Rep leaning: 25 Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Rep likely: 48 Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.
Rep safe: 53 Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element. Your browser does not support the canvas element.

Dem safe: 182
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Dem likely: 45
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Dem leaning: 52
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Dem toss up: 71
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Rep toss up: 62
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Rep leaning: 25
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Rep likely: 48
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Rep safe: 53
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The Complete States Table


State Projected margin (rounded) Odds of winning Current projection
District of Columbia Biden +89 >99% <1% DEM safe
Hawaii Biden +38 >99% <1% DEM safe
Massachusetts Biden +36 >99% <1% DEM safe
Vermont Biden +36 >99% <1% DEM safe
California Biden +34 >99% <1% DEM safe
New York Biden +31 >99% <1% DEM safe
Maryland Biden +29 >99% <1% DEM safe
Rhode Island Biden +24 >99% <1% DEM safe
Delaware Biden +22 >99% <1% DEM safe
Connecticut Biden +22 >99% <1% DEM safe
Washington Biden +21 >99% <1% DEM safe
New Jersey Biden +21 >99% <1% DEM safe
Illinois Biden +21 >99% <1% DEM safe
Oregon Biden +17 99% 1% DEM safe
New Mexico Biden +13 97% 3% DEM likely
Colorado Biden +13 96% 4% DEM likely
New Hampshire Biden +13 96% 4% DEM likely
Virginia Biden +12 95% 5% DEM likely
Minnesota Biden +11 94% 6% DEM likely
Maine Biden +11 93% 7% DEM likely
Michigan Biden +8 87% 13% DEM leaning
Wisconsin Biden +7 84% 16% DEM leaning
Nevada Biden +7 82% 18% DEM leaning
Pennsylvania Biden +5 74% 26% ← Tipping point
Florida Biden +2 63% 37% Toss up
Arizona Biden +2 61% 39% Toss up
North Carolina Biden +1 56% 44% Toss up
Georgia Even 52% 48% Toss up
Ohio Even 49% 51% Toss up
Iowa Trump +1 42% 58% Toss up
Texas Trump +2 39% 61% Toss up
Missouri Trump +5 24% 76% REP leaning
Montana Trump +7 17% 83% REP leaning
South Carolina Trump +9 11% 89% REP leaning
Alaska Trump +9 11% 89% REP leaning
Indiana Trump +11 6% 94% REP likely
Mississippi Trump +13 4% 96% REP likely
Kansas Trump +12 4% 96% REP likely
South Dakota Trump +14 2% 98% REP likely
Utah Trump +13 2% 98% REP likely
Tennessee Trump +15 2% 98% REP likely
Nebraska Trump +15 2% 98% REP likely
Kentucky Trump +18 <1% >99% REP safe
Arkansas Trump +20 <1% >99% REP safe
Alabama Trump +20 <1% >99% REP safe
North Dakota Trump +20 <1% >99% REP safe
West Virginia Trump +21 <1% >99% REP safe
Louisiana Trump +22 <1% >99% REP safe
Oklahoma Trump +25 <1% >99% REP safe
Idaho Trump +25 <1% >99% REP safe
Wyoming Trump +33 <1% >99% REP safe



The Tipping Point


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State Projected margin (rounded) Odds of winning Current projection
Michigan Biden +8 87% 13% DEM leaning
Wisconsin Biden +7 84% 16% DEM leaning
Nevada Biden +7 82% 18% DEM leaning
Pennsylvania Biden +5 74% 26% ← Tipping point
Florida Biden +2 63% 37% Toss up
Arizona Biden +2 61% 39% Toss up
North Carolina Biden +1 56% 44% Toss up
Georgia Even 52% 48% Toss up
Ohio Even 49% 51% Toss up
Iowa Trump +1 42% 58% Toss up
Texas Trump +2 39% 61% Toss up
Missouri Trump +5 24% 76% REP leaning
Montana Trump +7 17% 83% REP leaning
South Carolina Trump +9 11% 89% REP leaning
Alaska Trump +9 11% 89% REP leaning


Odds of winning the Electoral College


Latest update: November 3, 2020 [FINAL]

Biden Trump
80.5% 18.9%







Electoral College Projection


Latest update: November 3, 2020 [FINAL]

Biden Trump
340 ± 135 198 ± 135





Interactive map