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Welcome to 338Canada !


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection


Latest update: July 25, 2024
District of Columbia, Safe Democratic 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] DC 3 Massachusetts, Safe Democratic 11 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MA 11 California, Safe Democratic 54 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] CA 54 Maryland, Safe Democratic 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MD 10 Hawaii, Safe Democratic 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] HI 4 Vermont, Safe Democratic 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] VT 3 Washington, Safe Democratic 12 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] WA 12 New York, Likely Democratic 28 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NY 28 Connecticut, Likely Democratic 7 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] CT 7 Rhode Island, Likely Democratic 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] RI 4 Oregon, Likely Democratic 8 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] OR 8 New Jersey, Likely Democratic 14 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NJ 14 Delaware, Likely Democratic 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] DE 3 Illinois, Likely Democratic 19 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] IL 19 Colorado, Likely Democratic 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] CO 10 Maine, Leaning Democratic 4 Electoral Votes [EV given according to districts] ME* 4 Minnesota, Leaning Democratic 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MN 10 Virginia, Leaning Democratic 13 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] VA 13 New Hampshire, Leaning Democratic 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NH 4 New Mexico, Leaning Democratic 5 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NM 5 Wisconsin, Toss up 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] WI 10 Michigan, Toss up 15 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MI 15 Georgia, Toss up 16 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] GA 16 Pennsylvania, Toss up 19 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] PA 19 North Carolina, Leaning Trump 16 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NC 16 Nevada, Leaning Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NV 6 Florida, Leaning Trump 30 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] FL 30 Arizona, Leaning Trump 11 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] AZ 11 Ohio, Leaning Trump 17 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] OH 17 Texas, Likely Trump 40 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] TX 40 Iowa, Likely Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] IA 6 Montana, Likely Trump 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MT 4 Missouri, Likely Trump 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MO 10 South Carolina, Likely Trump 9 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] SC 9 Kansas, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] KS 6 Nebraska, Safe Trump 5 Electoral Votes [EV given according to districts] NE* 5 Louisiana, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] LA 8 Mississippi, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MS 6 Alaska, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] AK 3 Indiana, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] IN 11 South Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] SD 3 Tennessee, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] TN 11 Idaho, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] ID 4 North Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] ND 3 Alabama, Safe Trump 9 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] AL 9 Utah, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] UT 6 Kentucky, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] KY 8 Arkansas, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] AR 6 Oklahoma, Safe Trump 7 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] OK 7 West Virginia, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] WV 4 Wyoming, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] WY 3 WI MI GA PA Toss-ups District of Columbia ▼302 Trump Harris 236▲ [231-337] [201-307] 270 EV to win Harris 34%▲ Tie 1% ▼66% Trump Odds of Winning EC 338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection | July 25, 2024 [▲▼: movement since previous update]


Odds of winning Electoral College if...

If Trump wins Wisconsin... If Trump wins Wisconsin... If Trump wins Wisconsin... 11% 88% If Trump wins Michigan... If Trump wins Michigan... If Trump wins Michigan... 11% 89% If Trump wins Georgia... If Trump wins Georgia... If Trump wins Georgia... 14% 86% If Trump wins Pennsylvania... If Trump wins Pennsylvania... If Trump wins Pennsylvania... 12% 88% Latest update: July 25, 2024
If Harris wins Wisconsin... If Harris wins Wisconsin... If Harris wins Wisconsin... 53% 46% If Harris wins Michigan... If Harris wins Michigan... If Harris wins Michigan... 61% 39% If Harris wins Georgia... If Harris wins Georgia... If Harris wins Georgia... 68% 32% If Harris wins Pennsylvania... If Harris wins Pennsylvania... If Harris wins Pennsylvania... 72% 27% Latest update: July 25, 2024



[Probability density chart below is a work in progress... More to come soon.] 420 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 Electoral Votes 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 360+ 3% 270-299 21% 330-359 6% 300-329 26% 300-329 10% 330-359 15% 270-299 15% 360+ 3% Trump wins 66% Harris wins 34% July 25, 2024

District of Columbia, Safe Democratic 3 Electoral Votes DC DC DC Massachusetts, Safe Democratic 11 Electoral Votes MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA California, Safe Democratic 54 Electoral Votes CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA Maryland, Safe Democratic 10 Electoral Votes MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD Hawaii, Safe Democratic 4 Electoral Votes HI HI HI HI Vermont, Safe Democratic 3 Electoral Votes VT VT VT Washington, Safe Democratic 12 Electoral Votes WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA New York, Likely Democratic 28 Electoral Votes NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY Maine-1, Likely Democratic 1 Electoral Vote ME1 Connecticut, Likely Democratic 7 Electoral Votes CT CT CT CT CT CT CT Rhode Island, Likely Democratic 4 Electoral Votes RI RI RI RI Oregon, Likely Democratic 8 Electoral Votes OR OR OR OR OR OR OR OR New Jersey, Likely Democratic 14 Electoral Votes NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ Delaware, Likely Democratic 3 Electoral Votes DE DE DE Illinois, Likely Democratic 19 Electoral Votes IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL Colorado, Likely Democratic 10 Electoral Votes CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO Maine, Leaning Democratic 2 Electoral Votes (*Plus one EV per congressional district) ME ME Minnesota, Leaning Democratic 10 Electoral Votes MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN Virginia, Leaning Democratic 13 Electoral Votes VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA New Hampshire, Leaning Democratic 4 Electoral Votes NH NH NH NH New Mexico, Leaning Democratic 5 Electoral Votes NM NM NM NM NM Nebraska-2, Toss up 1 Electoral Vote NE2 Wisconsin, Toss up 10 Electoral Votes WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI Michigan, Toss up 15 Electoral Votes MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI Georgia, Toss up 16 Electoral Votes GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA Pennsylvania, Toss up 19 Electoral Votes PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA North Carolina, Leaning Trump 16 Electoral Votes NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Nevada, Leaning Trump 6 Electoral Votes NV NV NV NV NV NV Maine-2, Leaning Trump 1 Electoral Vote ME2 Florida, Leaning Trump 30 Electoral Votes FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL Arizona, Leaning Trump 11 Electoral Votes AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ Ohio, Leaning Trump 17 Electoral Votes OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH Texas, Likely Trump 40 Electoral Votes TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX Nebraska-1, Likely Trump 1 Electoral Vote NE1 Iowa, Likely Trump 6 Electoral Votes IA IA IA IA IA IA Montana, Likely Trump 4 Electoral Votes MT MT MT MT Missouri, Likely Trump 10 Electoral Votes MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO South Carolina, Likely Trump 9 Electoral Votes SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC Kansas, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes KS KS KS KS KS KS Nebraska, Safe Trump 2 Electoral Votes (*Plus one EV per congressional district) NE NE Louisiana, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA Mississippi, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes MS MS MS MS MS MS Alaska, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes AK AK AK Indiana, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN South Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes SD SD SD Tennessee, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN Idaho, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes ID ID ID ID North Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes ND ND ND Alabama, Safe Trump 9 Electoral Votes AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL Utah, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes UT UT UT UT UT UT Kentucky, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes KY KY KY KY KY KY KY KY Arkansas, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes AR AR AR AR AR AR Oklahoma, Safe Trump 7 Electoral Votes OK OK OK OK OK OK OK West Virginia, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes WV WV WV WV Wyoming, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes WY WY WY Nebraska-3, Safe Trump 1 Electoral Vote NE3 DC DC DC MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD HI HI HI HI VT VT VT WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY ME1 CT CT CT CT CT CT CT RI RI RI RI OR OR OR OR OR OR OR OR NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ DE DE DE IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO ME ME MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA NH NH NH NH NM NM NM NM NM NE2 WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NV NV NV NV NV NV ME2 FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX NE1 IA IA IA IA IA IA MT MT MT MT MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC KS KS KS KS KS KS NE NE LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA MS MS MS MS MS MS AK AK AK IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN SD SD SD TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN ID ID ID ID ND ND ND AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL UT UT UT UT UT UT KY KY KY KY KY KY KY KY AR AR AR AR AR AR OK OK OK OK OK OK OK WV WV WV WV WY WY WY NE3 270 EV to win 338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection Latest update: July 25, 2024 ▼302 Trump [231-337] Harris 236▲ [201-307]
80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 District de Columbia, Démocrate solide 3 Grands Électeurs DC+81 Massachusetts, Démocrate solide 11 Grands Électeurs MA+30 Californie, Démocrate solide 54 Grands Électeurs CA+27 Vermont, Démocrate solide 3 Grands Électeurs VT+27 Maryland, Démocrate solide 10 Grands Électeurs MD+26 Hawaii, Démocrate solide 4 Grands Électeurs HI+23 Maine-1, Démocrate probable 1 Grand Électeur ME1+19 Washington, Démocrate solide 12 Grands Électeurs WA+18 Rhode Island, Démocrate probable 4 Grands Électeurs RI+15 Delaware, Démocrate probable 3 Grands Électeurs DE+14 Connecticut, Démocrate probable 7 Grands Électeurs CT+13 New York, Démocrate probable 28 Grands Électeurs NY+12 Oregon, Démocrate probable 8 Grands Électeurs OR+12 New Jersey, Démocrate probable 14 Grands Électeurs NJ+11 Colorado, Démocrate probable 10 Grands Électeurs CO+9 Illinois, Démocrate probable 19 Grands Électeurs IL+8 Maine, Démocrate enclin 2 Grands Électeurs (*plus un GÉ par district) ME+6 Minnesota, Démocrate enclin 10 Grands Électeurs MN+5 New Hampshire, Démocrate enclin 4 Grands Électeurs NH+4 Nouveau-Mexique, Démocrate enclin 5 Grands Électeurs NM+4 Virginie, Démocrate enclin 13 Grands Électeurs VA+4 Nebraska-2, Pivot 1 Grand Électeur NE2+2 Wisconsin, Pivot 10 Grands Électeurs WI+0.5 Michigan, Pivot 15 Grands Électeurs MI+0.6 Georgie, Pivot 16 Grands Électeurs GA+2 Tipping point: PA Pennsylvanie, Pivot 19 Grands Électeurs PA+2 Caroline du Nord, Trump enclin 16 Grands Électeurs NC+4 Nevada, Trump enclin 6 Grands Électeurs NV+5 Floride, Trump enclin 30 Grands Électeurs FL+6 Arizona, Trump enclin 11 Grands Électeurs AZ+7 Ohio, Trump enclin 17 Grands Électeurs OH+7 Texas, Trump probable 40 Grands Électeurs TX+8 Maine-2, Trump enclin 1 Grand Électeur ME2+8 Iowa, Trump probable 6 Grands Électeurs IA+13 Missouri, Trump probable 10 Grands Électeurs MO+14 Caroline du Sud, Trump probable 9 Grands Électeurs SC+15 Montana, Trump probable 4 Grands Électeurs MT+17 Nebraska-1, Trump probable 1 Grand Électeur NE1+17 Kansas, Trump solide 6 Grands Électeurs KS+18 Louisiane, Trump solide 8 Grands Électeurs LA+20 Indiana, Trump solide 11 Grands Électeurs IN+22 Mississippi, Trump solide 6 Grands Électeurs MS+22 Nebraska, Trump solide 2 Grands Électeurs (*plus un GÉ par district) NE+22 Tennessee, Trump solide 11 Grands Électeurs TN+25 Alabama, Trump solide 9 Grands Électeurs AL+27 Utah, Trump solide 6 Grands Électeurs UT+28 Kentucky, Trump solide 8 Grands Électeurs KY+28 Arkansas, Trump solide 6 Grands Électeurs AR+29 Idaho, Trump solide 4 Grands Électeurs ID+30 Alaska, Trump solide 3 Grands Électeurs AK+30 Dakota du Sud, Trump solide 3 Grands Électeurs SD+32 Dakota du Nord, Trump solide 3 Grands Électeurs ND+33 Oklahoma, Trump solide 7 Grands Électeurs OK+34 Virginie Occidentale, Trump solide 4 Grands Électeurs WV+40 Wyoming, Trump solide 3 Grands Électeurs WY+44 Nebraska-3, Trump solide 1 Grand Électeur NE3+52 The Tipping Point District of Columbia, Safe Democratic 3 Electoral Votes DC+81 Massachusetts, Safe Democratic 11 Electoral Votes MA+30 California, Safe Democratic 54 Electoral Votes CA+27 Vermont, Safe Democratic 3 Electoral Votes VT+27 Maryland, Safe Democratic 10 Electoral Votes MD+26 Hawaii, Safe Democratic 4 Electoral Votes HI+23 Maine-1, Likely Democratic 1 Electoral Vote ME1+19 Washington, Safe Democratic 12 Electoral Votes WA+18 Rhode Island, Likely Democratic 4 Electoral Votes RI+15 Delaware, Likely Democratic 3 Electoral Votes DE+14 Connecticut, Likely Democratic 7 Electoral Votes CT+13 New York, Likely Democratic 28 Electoral Votes NY+12 Oregon, Likely Democratic 8 Electoral Votes OR+12 New Jersey, Likely Democratic 14 Electoral Votes NJ+11 Colorado, Likely Democratic 10 Electoral Votes CO+9 Illinois, Likely Democratic 19 Electoral Votes IL+8 Maine, Leaning Democratic 2 Electoral Votes (*Plus one EV per congressional district) ME+6 Minnesota, Leaning Democratic 10 Electoral Votes MN+5 New Hampshire, Leaning Democratic 4 Electoral Votes NH+4 New Mexico, Leaning Democratic 5 Electoral Votes NM+4 Virginia, Leaning Democratic 13 Electoral Votes VA+4 Nebraska-2, Toss up 1 Electoral Vote NE2+2 Wisconsin, Toss up 10 Electoral Votes WI+0.5 Michigan, Toss up 15 Electoral Votes MI+0.6 Georgia, Toss up 16 Electoral Votes GA+2 Tipping point: PA Pennsylvania, Toss up 19 Electoral Votes PA+2 North Carolina, Leaning Trump 16 Electoral Votes NC+4 Nevada, Leaning Trump 6 Electoral Votes NV+5 Florida, Leaning Trump 30 Electoral Votes FL+6 Arizona, Leaning Trump 11 Electoral Votes AZ+7 Ohio, Leaning Trump 17 Electoral Votes OH+7 Texas, Likely Trump 40 Electoral Votes TX+8 Maine-2, Leaning Trump 1 Electoral Vote ME2+8 Iowa, Likely Trump 6 Electoral Votes IA+13 Missouri, Likely Trump 10 Electoral Votes MO+14 South Carolina, Likely Trump 9 Electoral Votes SC+15 Montana, Likely Trump 4 Electoral Votes MT+17 Nebraska-1, Likely Trump 1 Electoral Vote NE1+17 Kansas, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes KS+18 Louisiana, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes LA+20 Indiana, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes IN+22 Mississippi, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes MS+22 Nebraska, Safe Trump 2 Electoral Votes (*Plus one EV per congressional district) NE+22 Tennessee, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes TN+25 Alabama, Safe Trump 9 Electoral Votes AL+27 Utah, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes UT+28 Kentucky, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes KY+28 Arkansas, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes AR+29 Idaho, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes ID+30 Alaska, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes AK+30 South Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes SD+32 North Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes ND+33 Oklahoma, Safe Trump 7 Electoral Votes OK+34 West Virginia, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes WV+40 Wyoming, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes WY+44 Nebraska-3, Safe Trump 1 Electoral Vote NE3+52 The Tipping Point July 25, 2024

Electoral Vote Projection

Trump 302 [231-337] Harris 236 [201-307] Seat projection 330 300 270 240 210 180 150 120 90 60 30 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Biden drops out Trump Harris 270 EV to win July 25, 2024 2024-06-11 Trump 278 Harris 260 2024-06-11 2024-06-13 Trump 297 Harris 241 2024-06-13 2024-06-15 Trump 287 Harris 251 2024-06-15 2024-06-17 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-06-17 2024-06-19 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-06-19 2024-06-21 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-06-21 2024-06-23 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-06-23 2024-06-25 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-06-25 2024-06-27 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-06-27 2024-06-29 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-06-29 2024-07-01 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-01 2024-07-03 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-03 2024-07-05 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-05 2024-07-07 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-07 2024-07-09 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-09 2024-07-11 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-11 2024-07-13 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-13 2024-07-15 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-15 2024-07-17 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-17 2024-07-19 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-19 2024-07-23 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-23 2024-07-25 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-07-25

338Canada Odds of Winning

Trump 66% Harris 34% Tie 1% Odds of winning the Electoral College 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Biden drops out Trump Harris Tie July 25, 2024 2024-06-11 Trump 62% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-11 2024-06-13 Trump 62% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-13 2024-06-15 Trump 62% Harris 38% Tie 1% 2024-06-15 2024-06-17 Trump 62% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-17 2024-06-19 Trump 58% Harris 41% Tie 1% 2024-06-19 2024-06-21 Trump 59% Harris 41% Tie 1% 2024-06-21 2024-06-23 Trump 62% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-25 Trump 63% Harris 36% Tie 1% 2024-06-25 2024-06-27 Trump 63% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-27 2024-06-29 Trump 63% Harris 37% Tie <1% 2024-06-29 2024-07-01 Trump 64% Harris 36% Tie 1% 2024-07-01 2024-07-03 Trump 65% Harris 35% Tie 1% 2024-07-03 2024-07-05 Trump 68% Harris 32% Tie <1% 2024-07-05 2024-07-07 Trump 69% Harris 31% Tie <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-09 Trump 69% Harris 30% Tie <1% 2024-07-09 2024-07-11 Trump 71% Harris 28% Tie <1% 2024-07-11 2024-07-13 Trump 74% Harris 25% Tie <1% 2024-07-13 2024-07-15 Trump 73% Harris 26% Tie 1% 2024-07-15 2024-07-17 Trump 73% Harris 26% Tie 1% 2024-07-17 2024-07-19 Trump 71% Harris 28% Tie 1% 2024-07-19 2024-07-23 Trump 69% Harris 31% Tie 1% 2024-07-23 2024-07-25 Trump 66% Harris 34% Tie 1% 2024-07-25