logo
Canada

338Canada federal projection | Ontario, 122 districts


Latest update: April 30, 2025
Ontario 49% ± 0%▲ LPC 44% ± 0%▲ CPC 5% ± 0%▼ NDP 338Canada federal vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Ontario, 122 federal districts 70▼ [64-73] LPC 52▲ [48-58] CPC 0▼ [0-1] GPC 0▼ [0-0] NDP 338Canada seat projection | April 30, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Federal vote projection | Ontario

LPC 49% ± 0% CPC 44% ± 0% NDP 5% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Ontario 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 42% LPC 38% NDP 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 12% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 11% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 43% CPC 39% NDP 11% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 43% CPC 39% NDP 11% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 43% CPC 39% NDP 11% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 43% CPC 39% NDP 11% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 43% CPC 39% NDP 11% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 45% CPC 39% NDP 10% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 45% CPC 39% NDP 9% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 46% CPC 39% NDP 9% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 46% CPC 38% NDP 9% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 47% CPC 38% NDP 9% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 47% CPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 47% CPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 48% CPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 49% CPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 49% CPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 49% CPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 49% CPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 49% CPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 48% CPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 48% CPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 49% CPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 49% CPC 38% NDP 8% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 48% CPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 49% CPC 38% NDP 8% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 49% CPC 38% NDP 8% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 49% CPC 38% NDP 8% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 49% CPC 38% NDP 8% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 49% CPC 38% NDP 8% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 48% CPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 48% CPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 48% CPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 47% CPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 48% CPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 48% CPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 48% CPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 48% CPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 48% CPC 39% NDP 9% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 48% CPC 39% NDP 9% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 48% CPC 39% NDP 9% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 47% CPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 49% CPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Federal seat projection | Ontario

LPC 70 [64-73] CPC 52 [48-58] NDP 0 [0-0] GPC 0 [0-1] Seat projection | Ontario 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 59 LPC 59 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 64 CPC 53 NDP 4 GPC 1 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 77 CPC 41 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 78 CPC 40 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 78 CPC 40 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 78 CPC 40 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 78 CPC 40 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 78 CPC 40 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 78 CPC 40 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 78 CPC 40 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 79 CPC 39 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 81 CPC 39 NDP 1 GPC 1 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 81 CPC 39 NDP 1 GPC 1 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 81 CPC 39 NDP 1 GPC 1 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 81 CPC 40 GPC 1 NDP 0 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 81 CPC 39 NDP 1 GPC 1 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 82 CPC 38 NDP 1 GPC 1 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 83 CPC 37 NDP 1 GPC 1 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 81 CPC 37 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 82 CPC 37 NDP 2 GPC 1 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 81 CPC 37 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 80 CPC 38 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 81 CPC 38 NDP 2 GPC 1 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 82 CPC 37 NDP 2 GPC 1 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 81 CPC 37 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 81 CPC 37 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 81 CPC 37 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 82 CPC 37 NDP 2 GPC 1 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 81 CPC 37 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 81 CPC 37 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 81 CPC 37 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 80 CPC 38 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 79 CPC 39 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 79 CPC 39 NDP 3 GPC 1 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 81 CPC 38 NDP 2 GPC 1 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 82 CPC 37 NDP 2 GPC 1 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 83 CPC 36 NDP 2 GPC 1 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 83 CPC 36 NDP 2 GPC 1 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 83 CPC 36 NDP 2 GPC 1 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 83 CPC 36 NDP 2 GPC 1 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 83 CPC 36 NDP 2 GPC 1 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 83 CPC 36 NDP 2 GPC 1 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 82 CPC 37 NDP 2 GPC 1 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 70 CPC 52 NDP 0 GPC 0 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Seat projection | Ontario


Latest update: April 30, 2025
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2025)
37 19 7 7 70 70
17 21 10 4 52 52
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0

List of electoral districts | Ontario


Latest update: April 30, 2025
Electoral district Transposed
2021 winner
Latest projection
35001 Ajax LPC safe
35002 Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe
35003 Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely
35004 Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe
35005 Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC likely
35006 Bay of Quinte LPC likely
35007 Beaches—East York LPC safe
35008 Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC leaning
35009 Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
35010 Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning
35011 Brampton East LPC leaning
35012 Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC
35013 Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC
35014 Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC
35015 Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely
35016 Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC safe
35017 Burlington LPC safe
35018 Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely
35019 Cambridge CPC leaning
35020 Carleton LPC leaning
35021 Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe
35022 Davenport LPC safe
35023 Don Valley North LPC likely
35024 Don Valley West LPC safe
35025 Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe
35026 Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC
35027 Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC likely
35028 Essex CPC safe
35029 Etobicoke Centre LPC likely
35030 Etobicoke—Lakeshore LPC safe
35031 Etobicoke North LPC likely
35032 Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC likely
35033 Guelph LPC safe
35034 Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe
35035 Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe
35036 Hamilton Centre LPC likely
35037 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC leaning
35038 Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning
35039 Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LPC safe
35040 Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC safe
35041 Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe
35042 Huron—Bruce CPC likely
35043 Kanata LPC safe
35044 Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC likely
35045 Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely
35046 Kingston and the Islands LPC safe
35047 King—Vaughan CPC safe
35048 Kitchener Centre Toss up CPC/GPC
35049 Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC
35050 Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC
35051 Lanark—Frontenac CPC leaning
35052 Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC likely
35053 London Centre LPC safe
35054 London—Fanshawe CPC likely
35055 London West LPC safe
35056 Markham—Stouffville LPC likely
35057 Markham—Thornhill LPC likely
35058 Markham—Unionville CPC leaning
35059 Middlesex—London CPC likely
35060 Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC
35061 Mississauga Centre LPC likely
35062 Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning
35063 Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC safe
35064 Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC likely
35065 Mississauga—Malton LPC likely
35066 Mississauga—Streetsville LPC likely
35067 Nepean LPC safe
35068 Newmarket—Aurora CPC leaning
35069 New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe
35070 Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC leaning
35071 Niagara South CPC leaning
35072 Niagara West CPC likely
35073 Nipissing—Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC
35074 Northumberland—Clarke CPC leaning
35075 Oakville East LPC likely
35076 Oakville West LPC likely
35077 Orléans LPC safe
35078 Oshawa CPC likely
35079 Ottawa Centre LPC safe
35080 Ottawa South LPC safe
35081 Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC safe
35082 Ottawa West—Nepean LPC safe
35083 Oxford CPC safe
35084 Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC likely
35085 Perth—Wellington CPC likely
35086 Peterborough LPC safe
35087 Pickering—Brooklin LPC safe
35088 Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC safe
35089 Richmond Hill South CPC likely
35090 Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe
35091 Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma LPC leaning
35092 Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely
35093 Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC safe
35094 Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe
35095 Scarborough North LPC safe
35096 Scarborough Southwest LPC safe
35097 Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe
35098 Simcoe—Grey CPC likely
35099 Simcoe North CPC leaning
35100 Spadina—Harbourfront LPC safe
35101 St. Catharines LPC likely
35102 Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe
35103 Sudbury LPC likely
35104 Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC likely
35105 Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park LPC safe
35106 Thornhill CPC safe
35107 Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning
35108 Thunder Bay—Superior North LPC safe
35109 Toronto Centre LPC safe
35110 Toronto—Danforth LPC safe
35111 Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC safe
35112 University—Rosedale LPC safe
35113 Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe
35114 Waterloo LPC safe
35115 Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC likely
35116 Whitby LPC likely
35117 Willowdale LPC likely
35118 Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC
35119 Windsor West CPC likely
35120 York Centre CPC likely
35121 York—Durham CPC safe
35122 York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC safe