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338Canada federal projection | Ontario, 121 districts


Latest update: October 1, 2023
Ontario 41% ± 6%▲ 33% ± 5%▼ 18% ± 4% 5% ± 2% 3% ± 3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 1, 2023
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Ontario, 121 federal districts 71▲ [48-93] 44▼ [20-66] 5▼ [3-13] 1 [1-1] 338Canada seat projection | October 1, 2023
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Ontario

LPC 33% ± 5% CPC 41% ± 6% NDP 18% ± 4% GPC 5% ± 2% PPC 3% ± 3% 338Canada Popular vote projection % | Ontario 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Seat projection | Ontario

LPC 44 [20-66] CPC 71 [48-93] NDP 5 [3-13] GPC 1 [1-1] 338Canada seat projection | Ontario 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2021)
37 9 16 9 71 37
12 12 8 12 44 78
3 0 1 1 5 5
0 1 0 0 1 1

List of electoral districts


Latest update: October 1, 2023
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
35001 Ajax LPC safe hold
35002 Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP leaning hold
35003 Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill CPC leaning gain
35004 Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe hold
35005 Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC safe hold
35006 Bay of Quinte CPC safe hold
35007 Beaches–East York LPC safe hold
35008 Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
35009 Brampton East LPC likely hold
35010 Brampton North LPC likely hold
35011 Brampton South LPC likely hold
35012 Brampton West LPC likely hold
35013 Brantford–Brant CPC safe hold
35014 Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe hold
35015 Burlington CPC leaning gain
35016 Cambridge CPC likely gain
35017 Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe hold
35018 Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP
35019 Don Valley East LPC safe hold
35020 Don Valley North LPC likely hold
35021 Don Valley West Toss up LPC/CPC
35022 Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe hold
35023 Durham CPC safe hold
35024 Eglinton–Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC
35025 Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe hold
35026 Essex CPC safe hold
35027 Etobicoke Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
35028 Etobicoke–Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC
35029 Etobicoke North LPC safe hold
35030 Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC safe hold
35031 Glengarry–Prescott–Russell CPC leaning gain
35032 Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC
35033 Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe hold
35034 Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe hold
35035 Hamilton Centre NDP safe hold
35036 Hamilton East–Stoney Creek CPC leaning gain
35037 Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35038 Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas Toss up LPC/CPC
35039 Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC safe hold
35040 Huron–Bruce CPC safe hold
35041 Kanata–Carleton CPC likely gain
35042 Kenora CPC safe hold
35043 King–Vaughan CPC safe hold
35044 Kingston and the Islands LPC leaning hold
35045 Kitchener Centre GPC likely hold
35046 Kitchener–Conestoga CPC likely gain
35047 Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC likely gain
35048 Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe hold
35049 Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe hold
35050 Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe hold
35051 London–Fanshawe NDP safe hold
35052 London North Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
35053 London West CPC likely gain
35054 Markham–Stouffville Toss up LPC/CPC
35055 Markham–Thornhill LPC safe hold
35056 Markham–Unionville CPC likely gain
35057 Milton LPC leaning hold
35058 Mississauga Centre LPC likely hold
35059 Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC leaning hold
35060 Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC leaning hold
35061 Mississauga–Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC
35062 Mississauga–Malton LPC likely hold
35063 Mississauga–Streetsville Toss up LPC/CPC
35064 Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC
35065 Newmarket–Aurora CPC leaning gain
35066 Niagara Centre CPC likely gain
35067 Niagara Falls CPC safe hold
35068 Niagara West CPC safe hold
35069 Nickel Belt CPC leaning gain
35070 Nipissing–Timiskaming CPC leaning gain
35071 Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC safe hold
35072 Oakville CPC leaning gain
35073 Oakville North–Burlington CPC leaning gain
35074 Oshawa CPC safe hold
35075 Ottawa Centre LPC leaning hold
35076 Orléans LPC leaning hold
35077 Ottawa South LPC leaning hold
35078 Ottawa–Vanier LPC likely hold
35079 Ottawa West–Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC
35080 Oxford CPC safe hold
35081 Parkdale–High Park Toss up LPC/NDP
35082 Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe hold
35083 Perth–Wellington CPC safe hold
35084 Peterborough–Kawartha CPC safe hold
35085 Pickering–Uxbridge Toss up LPC/CPC
35086 Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe hold
35087 Richmond Hill CPC leaning gain
35088 Carleton CPC safe hold
35089 St. Catharines CPC likely gain
35090 Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC likely hold
35091 Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe hold
35092 Sault Ste. Marie CPC likely gain
35093 Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely hold
35094 Scarborough Centre LPC safe hold
35095 Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe hold
35096 Scarborough North LPC safe hold
35097 Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe hold
35098 Scarborough Southwest LPC safe hold
35099 Simcoe–Grey CPC safe hold
35100 Simcoe North CPC safe hold
35101 Spadina–Fort York LPC leaning hold
35102 Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe hold
35103 Sudbury CPC leaning gain
35104 Thornhill CPC safe hold
35105 Thunder Bay–Rainy River CPC leaning gain
35106 Thunder Bay–Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35107 Timmins–James Bay Toss up CPC/NDP
35108 Toronto Centre LPC likely hold
35109 Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP
35110 University–Rosedale LPC likely hold
35111 Vaughan–Woodbridge CPC leaning gain
35112 Waterloo Toss up LPC/CPC
35113 Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe hold
35114 Whitby CPC leaning gain
35115 Willowdale Toss up LPC/CPC
35116 Windsor–Tecumseh CPC leaning gain
35117 Windsor West NDP safe hold
35118 York Centre CPC leaning gain
35119 York–Simcoe CPC safe hold
35120 York South–Weston LPC safe hold
35121 Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe hold