Ontario

122 federal districts

Latest update: January 18, 2026

Seat and vote projections — Ontario → List of federal districts — Ontario → Federal polls — Ontario → Federal polls — National → Federal map → Back to 338Canada home → Riding roulette! →

Ontario

122 federal districts

Latest update: January 18, 2026

Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. Details on 338Canada’s methodology are available here.

Methodology note. The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current range from worst- to best-case outcomes. Values near the centre of the distribution are more likely than the extremes, as the results follow Gaussian-like (bell-curve) distributions. Does it work? See 338Canada’s full record here.

Federal vote projection | Ontario

Federal seat projection | Ontario

List of districts | Ontario
Latest update: January 18, 2026

Electoral districts	Current party	Projection
Ajax Jennifer McKelvie	L	LPC likely
Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke Cheryl Gallant	C	CPC safe
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Costas Menegakis	C	CPC likely
Barrie South—Innisfil John Brassard	C	CPC safe
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Shipley	C	CPC likely
Bay of Quinte Christopher Malette	L	LPC leaning
Beaches—East York Nathaniel Erskine-Smith	L	LPC safe
Bowmanville—Oshawa North Jamil Jivani	C	CPC leaning
Brampton Centre Amandeep Sodhi	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Shafqat Ali	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
Brampton East Maninder Sidhu	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
Brampton North—Caledon Ruby Sahota	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
Brampton South Sonia Sidhu	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
Brampton West Amarjeet Gill	C	CPC leaning
Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations Larry Brock	C	CPC likely
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Alex Ruff	C	CPC likely
Burlington Karina Gould	L	LPC likely
Burlington North—Milton West Adam van Koeverden	L	LPC leaning
Cambridge Connie Cody	C	CPC leaning
Carleton Bruce Fanjoy	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
Chatham-Kent—Leamington Dave Epp	C	CPC safe
Davenport Julie Dzerowicz	L	LPC likely
Don Valley North Maggie Chi	L	LPC leaning
Don Valley West Rob Oliphant	L	LPC safe
Dufferin—Caledon Kyle Seeback	C	CPC safe
Eglinton—Lawrence Vince Gasparro	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Andrew Lawton	C	CPC likely
Essex Chris Lewis	C	CPC safe
Etobicoke Centre Yvan Baker	L	LPC leaning
Etobicoke—Lakeshore James Maloney	L	LPC likely
Etobicoke North John Zerucelli	L	LPC likely
Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North Dan Muys	C	CPC likely
Guelph Dominique O’Rourke	L	LPC safe
Haldimand—Norfolk Leslyn Lewis	C	CPC safe
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes Jamie Schmale	C	CPC safe
Hamilton Centre Aslam Rana	L	NDP leaning
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Ned Kuruc	C	CPC leaning
Hamilton Mountain Lisa Hepfner	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas JP Danko	L	LPC likely
Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga Shelby Kramp-Neuman	C	CPC likely
Humber River—Black Creek Judy Sgro	L	LPC likely
Huron—Bruce Ben Lobb	C	CPC likely
Kanata Jenna Sudds	L	LPC safe
Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Gaetan Malette	C	CPC likely
Kenora—Kiiwetinoong Eric Melillo	C	CPC likely
Kingston and the Islands Mark Gerretsen	L	LPC safe
King—Vaughan Anna Roberts	C	CPC safe
Kitchener Centre Kelly DeRidder	C	GPC likely
Kitchener—Conestoga Tim Louis	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
Kitchener South—Hespeler Matt Strauss	C	CPC leaning
Lanark—Frontenac Scott Reid	C	CPC leaning
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes Michael Barrett	C	CPC leaning
London Centre Peter Fragiskatos	L	LPC safe
London—Fanshawe Kurt Holman	C	Toss up CPC/NDP
London West Arielle Kayabaga	L	LPC likely
Markham—Stouffville Helena Jaczek	L	LPC leaning
Markham—Thornhill Tim Hodgson	L	LPC likely
Markham—Unionville Michael Ma [Elected as CPC]	L	CPC leaning
Middlesex—London Lianne Rood	C	CPC likely
Milton East—Halton Hills South Kristina Tesser Derksen	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
Mississauga Centre Fares Al Soud	L	LPC likely
Mississauga East—Cooksville Peter Fonseca	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
Mississauga—Erin Mills Iqra Khalid	L	LPC likely
Mississauga—Lakeshore Charles Sousa	L	LPC leaning
Mississauga—Malton Iqwinder Gaheer	L	LPC likely
Mississauga—Streetsville Rechie Valdez	L	LPC leaning
Nepean Mark Carney	L	LPC safe
Newmarket—Aurora Sandra Cobena	C	CPC leaning
New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury Scot Davidson	C	CPC safe
Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Tony Baldinelli	C	CPC leaning
Niagara South Fred Davies	C	CPC leaning
Niagara West Dean Allison	C	CPC likely
Nipissing—Timiskaming Pauline Rochefort	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
Northumberland—Clarke Philip Lawrence	C	CPC leaning
Oakville East Anita Anand	L	LPC leaning
Oakville West Sima Acan	L	LPC leaning
Orléans Marie-France Lalonde	L	LPC safe
Oshawa Rhonda Kirkland	C	CPC leaning
Ottawa Centre Yasir Naqvi	L	LPC likely
Ottawa South David McGuinty	L	LPC safe
Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester Mona Fortier	L	LPC safe
Ottawa West—Nepean Anita Vandenbeld	L	LPC safe
Oxford Arpan Khanna	C	CPC likely
Parry Sound—Muskoka Scott Aitchison	C	CPC likely
Perth—Wellington John Nater	C	CPC likely
Peterborough Emma Harrison	L	LPC likely
Pickering—Brooklin Juanita Nathan	L	LPC likely
Prescott—Russell—Cumberland Giovanna Mingarelli	L	LPC likely
Richmond Hill South Vincent Neil Ho	C	CPC likely
Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Marilyn Gladu	C	CPC likely
Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Terry Sheehan	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
Scarborough—Agincourt Jean Yip	L	LPC likely
Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Salma Zahid	L	LPC likely
Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park Gary Anandasangaree	L	LPC safe
Scarborough North Shaun Chen	L	LPC safe
Scarborough Southwest Bill Blair	L	LPC safe
Scarborough—Woburn Michael Coteau	L	LPC safe
Simcoe—Grey Terry Dowdall	C	CPC likely
Simcoe North Adam Chambers	C	CPC leaning
Spadina—Harbourfront Chi Nguyen	L	LPC safe
St. Catharines Chris Bittle	L	LPC likely
Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry Eric Duncan	C	CPC likely
Sudbury Viviane Lapointe	L	LPC likely
Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt Jim Belanger	C	CPC likely
Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park Karim Bardeesy	L	LPC leaning
Thornhill Melissa Lantsman	C	CPC safe
Thunder Bay—Rainy River Marcus Powlowski	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
Thunder Bay—Superior North Patty Hajdu	L	LPC likely
Toronto Centre Evan Solomon	L	LPC safe
Toronto—Danforth Julie Dabrusin	L	LPC safe
Toronto—St. Paul’s Leslie Church	L	LPC safe
University—Rosedale Vacant		LPC safe
Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Guglielmin	C	CPC safe
Waterloo Bardish Chagger	L	LPC safe
Wellington—Halton Hills North Michael Chong	C	CPC likely
Whitby Ryan Turnbull	L	LPC leaning
Willowdale Ali Ehsassi	L	LPC leaning
Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Kathy Borrelli	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Windsor West Harbinder Gill	C	Toss up CPC/NDP
York Centre Roman Baber	C	CPC likely
York—Durham Jacob Mantle	C	CPC likely
York South—Weston—Etobicoke Ahmed Hussen	L	LPC likely

Ontario

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Ontario

Federal vote projection | Ontario

Federal seat projection | Ontario

Federal vote projection | Ontario

Federal seat projection | Ontario

Federal vote projection | Ontario

Federal seat projection | Ontario

List of districts | Ontario Latest update: January 18, 2026

List of districts | Ontario
Latest update: January 18, 2026