Ontario | 338Canada

338Canada federal projection | Ontario, 122 districts

Federal vote projection | Ontario

Federal seat projection | Ontario

Seat projection | Ontario

List of electoral districts | Ontario

Latest update: January 4, 2026

This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Latest update: January 4, 2026

Projected ahead

Last election (2025)

Latest update: January 4, 2026

Districts and MPs	Current party	Latest projection
35001 Ajax Jennifer McKelvie	L	LPC likely
35002 Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke Cheryl Gallant	C	CPC likely
35003 Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Costas Menegakis	C	CPC likely
35004 Barrie South—Innisfil John Brassard	C	CPC safe
35005 Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Shipley	C	CPC likely
35006 Bay of Quinte Christopher Malette	L	LPC leaning
35007 Beaches—East York Nathaniel Erskine-Smith	L	LPC safe
35008 Bowmanville—Oshawa North Jamil Jivani	C	CPC leaning
35009 Brampton Centre Amandeep Sodhi	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
35010 Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Shafqat Ali	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
35011 Brampton East Maninder Sidhu	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
35012 Brampton North—Caledon Ruby Sahota	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
35013 Brampton South Sonia Sidhu	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
35014 Brampton West Amarjeet Gill	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
35015 Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations Larry Brock	C	CPC likely
35016 Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Alex Ruff	C	CPC likely
35017 Burlington Karina Gould	L	LPC likely
35018 Burlington North—Milton West Adam van Koeverden	L	LPC leaning
35019 Cambridge Connie Cody	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
35020 Carleton Bruce Fanjoy	L	LPC leaning
35021 Chatham-Kent—Leamington Dave Epp	C	CPC safe
35022 Davenport Julie Dzerowicz	L	LPC likely
35023 Don Valley North Maggie Chi	L	LPC likely
35024 Don Valley West Rob Oliphant	L	LPC safe
35025 Dufferin—Caledon Kyle Seeback	C	CPC safe
35026 Eglinton—Lawrence Vince Gasparro	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
35027 Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Andrew Lawton	C	CPC leaning
35028 Essex Chris Lewis	C	CPC safe
35029 Etobicoke Centre Yvan Baker	L	LPC leaning
35030 Etobicoke—Lakeshore James Maloney	L	LPC likely
35031 Etobicoke North John Zerucelli	L	LPC likely
35032 Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North Dan Muys	C	CPC likely
35033 Guelph Dominique O’Rourke	L	LPC safe
35034 Haldimand—Norfolk Leslyn Lewis	C	CPC safe
35035 Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes Jamie Schmale	C	CPC likely
35036 Hamilton Centre Aslam Rana	L	Toss up LPC/NDP
35037 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Ned Kuruc	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
35038 Hamilton Mountain Lisa Hepfner	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
35039 Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas JP Danko	L	LPC likely
35040 Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga Shelby Kramp-Neuman	C	CPC likely
35041 Humber River—Black Creek Judy Sgro	L	LPC likely
35042 Huron—Bruce Ben Lobb	C	CPC likely
35043 Kanata Jenna Sudds	L	LPC safe
35044 Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Gaetan Malette	C	CPC likely
35045 Kenora—Kiiwetinoong Eric Melillo	C	CPC likely
35046 Kingston and the Islands Mark Gerretsen	L	LPC safe
35047 King—Vaughan Anna Roberts	C	CPC safe
35048 Kitchener Centre Kelly DeRidder	C	GPC likely
35049 Kitchener—Conestoga Tim Louis	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
35050 Kitchener South—Hespeler Matt Strauss	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
35051 Lanark—Frontenac Scott Reid	C	CPC leaning
35052 Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes Michael Barrett	C	CPC leaning
35053 London Centre Peter Fragiskatos	L	LPC safe
35054 London—Fanshawe Kurt Holman	C	Toss up CPC/NDP
35055 London West Arielle Kayabaga	L	LPC likely
35056 Markham—Stouffville Helena Jaczek	L	LPC leaning
35057 Markham—Thornhill Tim Hodgson	L	LPC likely
35058 Markham—Unionville Michael Ma [Elected as CPC]	L	CPC leaning
35059 Middlesex—London Lianne Rood	C	CPC likely
35060 Milton East—Halton Hills South Kristina Tesser Derksen	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
35061 Mississauga Centre Fares Al Soud	L	LPC likely
35062 Mississauga East—Cooksville Peter Fonseca	L	LPC leaning
35063 Mississauga—Erin Mills Iqra Khalid	L	LPC likely
35064 Mississauga—Lakeshore Charles Sousa	L	LPC leaning
35065 Mississauga—Malton Iqwinder Gaheer	L	LPC likely
35066 Mississauga—Streetsville Rechie Valdez	L	LPC leaning
35067 Nepean Mark Carney	L	LPC safe
35068 Newmarket—Aurora Sandra Cobena	C	CPC leaning
35069 New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury Scot Davidson	C	CPC safe
35070 Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Tony Baldinelli	C	CPC leaning
35071 Niagara South Fred Davies	C	CPC leaning
35072 Niagara West Dean Allison	C	CPC likely
35073 Nipissing—Timiskaming Pauline Rochefort	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
35074 Northumberland—Clarke Philip Lawrence	C	CPC leaning
35075 Oakville East Anita Anand	L	LPC leaning
35076 Oakville West Sima Acan	L	LPC leaning
35077 Orléans Marie-France Lalonde	L	LPC safe
35078 Oshawa Rhonda Kirkland	C	CPC leaning
35079 Ottawa Centre Yasir Naqvi	L	LPC likely
35080 Ottawa South David McGuinty	L	LPC safe
35081 Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester Mona Fortier	L	LPC safe
35082 Ottawa West—Nepean Anita Vandenbeld	L	LPC safe
35083 Oxford Arpan Khanna	C	CPC likely
35084 Parry Sound—Muskoka Scott Aitchison	C	CPC likely
35085 Perth—Wellington John Nater	C	CPC likely
35086 Peterborough Emma Harrison	L	LPC likely
35087 Pickering—Brooklin Juanita Nathan	L	LPC likely
35088 Prescott—Russell—Cumberland Giovanna Mingarelli	L	LPC likely
35089 Richmond Hill South Vincent Neil Ho	C	CPC likely
35090 Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Marilyn Gladu	C	CPC likely
35091 Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Terry Sheehan	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
35092 Scarborough—Agincourt Jean Yip	L	LPC likely
35093 Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Salma Zahid	L	LPC likely
35094 Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park Gary Anandasangaree	L	LPC safe
35095 Scarborough North Shaun Chen	L	LPC safe
35096 Scarborough Southwest Bill Blair	L	LPC safe
35097 Scarborough—Woburn Michael Coteau	L	LPC safe
35098 Simcoe—Grey Terry Dowdall	C	CPC likely
35099 Simcoe North Adam Chambers	C	CPC leaning
35100 Spadina—Harbourfront Chi Nguyen	L	LPC safe
35101 St. Catharines Chris Bittle	L	LPC likely
35102 Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry Eric Duncan	C	CPC likely
35103 Sudbury Viviane Lapointe	L	LPC likely
35104 Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt Jim Belanger	C	CPC leaning
35105 Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park Karim Bardeesy	L	LPC leaning
35106 Thornhill Melissa Lantsman	C	CPC safe
35107 Thunder Bay—Rainy River Marcus Powlowski	L	LPC leaning
35108 Thunder Bay—Superior North Patty Hajdu	L	LPC likely
35109 Toronto Centre Evan Solomon	L	LPC safe
35110 Toronto—Danforth Julie Dabrusin	L	LPC safe
35111 Toronto—St. Paul’s Leslie Church	L	LPC safe
35112 University—Rosedale Chrystia Freeland	L	LPC safe
35113 Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Guglielmin	C	CPC safe
35114 Waterloo Bardish Chagger	L	LPC safe
35115 Wellington—Halton Hills North Michael Chong	C	CPC leaning
35116 Whitby Ryan Turnbull	L	LPC leaning
35117 Willowdale Ali Ehsassi	L	LPC leaning
35118 Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Kathy Borrelli	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
35119 Windsor West Harbinder Gill	C	Toss up CPC/NDP
35120 York Centre Roman Baber	C	CPC likely
35121 York—Durham Jacob Mantle	C	CPC likely
35122 York South—Weston—Etobicoke Ahmed Hussen	L	LPC likely