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338Canada federal projection | Ontario, 122 districts


Latest update: May 12, 2024
Ontario 46% ± 6% CPC 28% ± 5% LPC 18% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 3% GPC 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Ontario, 122 federal districts 88 [67-101] CPC 25 [12-44] LPC 8 [3-15] NDP 1 [1-1] GPC 338Canada seat projection | May 12, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Ontario

LPC 28% ± 5% CPC 46% ± 6% NDP 18% ± 4% GPC 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Ontario 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC May 12, 2024

Seat projection | Ontario

LPC 25 [12-44] CPC 88 [67-101] NDP 8 [3-15] GPC 1 [1-1] Seat projection | Ontario 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC May 12, 2024

Seat projection | Ontario


Latest update: May 12, 2024
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2021)
52 13 12 11 88 40
6 6 11 2 25 77
2 2 3 1 8 4
0 1 0 0 1 1

List of electoral districts | Ontario


Latest update: May 12, 2024
Electoral district Transposed
2021 winner
Latest projection
35001 Ajax LPC leaning
35002 Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe
35003 Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC safe
35004 Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe
35005 Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC safe
35006 Bay of Quinte CPC safe
35007 Beaches—East York LPC safe
35008 Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC safe
35009 Brampton Centre CPC leaning
35010 Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC
35011 Brampton East LPC leaning
35012 Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC
35013 Brampton South LPC leaning
35014 Brampton West LPC leaning
35015 Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC safe
35016 Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC safe
35017 Burlington CPC likely
35018 Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely
35019 Cambridge CPC safe
35020 Carleton CPC safe
35021 Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe
35022 Davenport NDP leaning
35023 Don Valley North Toss up LPC/CPC
35024 Don Valley West LPC leaning
35025 Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe
35026 Eglinton—Lawrence CPC likely
35027 Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC safe
35028 Essex CPC safe
35029 Etobicoke Centre CPC leaning
35030 Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC leaning
35031 Etobicoke North LPC likely
35032 Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC safe
35033 Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC
35034 Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe
35035 Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe
35036 Hamilton Centre NDP safe
35037 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely
35038 Hamilton Mountain Toss up CPC/NDP
35039 Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC leaning
35040 Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC safe
35041 Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe
35042 Huron—Bruce CPC safe
35043 Kanata CPC likely
35044 Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk NDP leaning
35045 Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC safe
35046 Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35047 King—Vaughan CPC safe
35048 Kitchener Centre GPC likely
35049 Kitchener—Conestoga CPC safe
35050 Kitchener South—Hespeler CPC safe
35051 Lanark—Frontenac CPC safe
35052 Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC safe
35053 London Centre Toss up CPC/NDP
35054 London—Fanshawe NDP likely
35055 London West CPC safe
35056 Markham—Stouffville CPC leaning
35057 Markham—Thornhill LPC likely
35058 Markham—Unionville CPC safe
35059 Middlesex—London CPC safe
35060 Milton East—Halton Hills South CPC safe
35061 Mississauga Centre LPC leaning
35062 Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up LPC/CPC
35063 Mississauga—Erin Mills CPC leaning
35064 Mississauga—Lakeshore CPC safe
35065 Mississauga—Malton Toss up LPC/CPC
35066 Mississauga—Streetsville CPC likely
35067 Nepean CPC likely
35068 Newmarket—Aurora CPC safe
35069 New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe
35070 Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC safe
35071 Niagara South CPC safe
35072 Niagara West CPC safe
35073 Nipissing—Timiskaming CPC safe
35074 Northumberland—Clarke CPC safe
35075 Oakville East CPC likely
35076 Oakville West CPC likely
35077 Orléans LPC leaning
35078 Oshawa CPC safe
35079 Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
35080 Ottawa South LPC leaning
35081 Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC likely
35082 Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC
35083 Oxford CPC safe
35084 Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC safe
35085 Perth—Wellington CPC safe
35086 Peterborough CPC safe
35087 Pickering—Brooklin CPC leaning
35088 Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC leaning
35089 Richmond Hill South CPC likely
35090 Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe
35091 Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma CPC safe
35092 Scarborough—Agincourt LPC leaning
35093 Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC likely
35094 Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe
35095 Scarborough North LPC safe
35096 Scarborough Southwest LPC safe
35097 Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe
35098 Simcoe—Grey CPC safe
35099 Simcoe North CPC safe
35100 Spadina—Harbourfront NDP leaning
35101 St. Catharines CPC safe
35102 Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe
35103 Sudbury CPC leaning
35104 Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning
35105 Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park NDP likely
35106 Thornhill CPC safe
35107 Thunder Bay—Rainy River CPC likely
35108 Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35109 Toronto Centre LPC likely
35110 Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP
35111 Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC leaning
35112 University—Rosedale LPC leaning
35113 Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe
35114 Waterloo Toss up LPC/CPC
35115 Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC safe
35116 Whitby CPC likely
35117 Willowdale CPC leaning
35118 Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore CPC leaning
35119 Windsor West NDP safe
35120 York Centre CPC likely
35121 York—Durham CPC safe
35122 York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely