Ontario

122 federal districts

Latest update: May 3, 2026

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Ontario

122 federal districts

Latest update: May 3, 2026

Methodology note. Projections are calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. See methodology statement here.

Methodology note. Seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. Brackets indicate the current range of outcomes. Values near the mean are more likely than extremes.

Federal Projection | Ontario

Federal Seat Projection | Ontario

List of districts | Ontario
Latest update: May 3, 2026

Electoral districts	Current party	Projection
Ajax Jennifer McKelvie	L	LPC safe
Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke Cheryl Gallant	C	CPC leaning
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Costas Menegakis	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Barrie South—Innisfil John Brassard	C	CPC likely
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Shipley	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Bay of Quinte Christopher Malette	L	LPC likely
Beaches—East York Nathaniel Erskine-Smith	L	LPC safe
Bowmanville—Oshawa North Jamil Jivani	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Brampton Centre Amandeep Sodhi	L	LPC likely
Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Shafqat Ali	L	LPC likely
Brampton East Maninder Sidhu	L	LPC likely
Brampton North—Caledon Ruby Sahota	L	LPC likely
Brampton South Sonia Sidhu	L	LPC likely
Brampton West Amarjeet Gill	C	LPC leaning
Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations Larry Brock	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Alex Ruff	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Burlington Karina Gould	L	LPC safe
Burlington North—Milton West Adam van Koeverden	L	LPC safe
Cambridge Connie Cody	C	LPC leaning
Carleton Bruce Fanjoy	L	LPC likely
Chatham-Kent—Leamington Dave Epp	C	CPC likely
Davenport Julie Dzerowicz	L	LPC safe
Don Valley North Maggie Chi	L	LPC safe
Don Valley West Rob Oliphant	L	LPC safe
Dufferin—Caledon Kyle Seeback	C	CPC likely
Eglinton—Lawrence Vince Gasparro	L	LPC likely
Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Andrew Lawton	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Essex Chris Lewis	C	CPC likely
Etobicoke Centre Yvan Baker	L	LPC safe
Etobicoke—Lakeshore James Maloney	L	LPC safe
Etobicoke North John Zerucelli	L	LPC safe
Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North Dan Muys	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Guelph Dominique O’Rourke	L	LPC safe
Haldimand—Norfolk Leslyn Lewis	C	CPC likely
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes Jamie Schmale	C	CPC leaning
Hamilton Centre Aslam Rana	L	LPC leaning
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Ned Kuruc	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Hamilton Mountain Lisa Hepfner	L	LPC likely
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas JP Danko	L	LPC safe
Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga Shelby Kramp-Neuman	C	CPC leaning
Humber River—Black Creek Judy Sgro	L	LPC safe
Huron—Bruce Ben Lobb	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Kanata Jenna Sudds	L	LPC safe
Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Gaetan Malette	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Kenora—Kiiwetinoong Eric Melillo	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Kingston and the Islands Mark Gerretsen	L	LPC safe
King—Vaughan Anna Roberts	C	CPC likely
Kitchener Centre Kelly DeRidder	C	Toss up LPC/CPC/GPC
Kitchener—Conestoga Tim Louis	L	LPC likely
Kitchener South—Hespeler Matt Strauss	C	LPC likely
Lanark—Frontenac Scott Reid	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes Michael Barrett	C	LPC leaning
London Centre Peter Fragiskatos	L	LPC safe
London—Fanshawe Kurt Holman	C	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
London West Arielle Kayabaga	L	LPC safe
Markham—Stouffville Helena Jaczek	L	LPC likely
Markham—Thornhill Tim Hodgson	L	LPC safe
Markham—Unionville Michael Ma [Elected as CPC]	L	LPC likely
Middlesex—London Lianne Rood	C	CPC leaning
Milton East—Halton Hills South Kristina Tesser Derksen	L	LPC likely
Mississauga Centre Fares Al Soud	L	LPC safe
Mississauga East—Cooksville Peter Fonseca	L	LPC likely
Mississauga—Erin Mills Iqra Khalid	L	LPC safe
Mississauga—Lakeshore Charles Sousa	L	LPC likely
Mississauga—Malton Iqwinder Gaheer	L	LPC safe
Mississauga—Streetsville Rechie Valdez	L	LPC likely
Nepean Mark Carney	L	LPC safe
Newmarket—Aurora Sandra Cobena	C	LPC leaning
New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury Scot Davidson	C	CPC likely
Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Tony Baldinelli	C	LPC leaning
Niagara South Fred Davies	C	LPC leaning
Niagara West Dean Allison	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Nipissing—Timiskaming Pauline Rochefort	L	LPC likely
Northumberland—Clarke Philip Lawrence	C	LPC leaning
Oakville East Anita Anand	L	LPC likely
Oakville West Sima Acan	L	LPC likely
Orléans Marie-France Lalonde	L	LPC safe
Oshawa Rhonda Kirkland	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Ottawa Centre Yasir Naqvi	L	LPC safe
Ottawa South David McGuinty	L	LPC safe
Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester Mona Fortier	L	LPC safe
Ottawa West—Nepean Anita Vandenbeld	L	LPC safe
Oxford Arpan Khanna	C	CPC leaning
Parry Sound—Muskoka Scott Aitchison	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Perth—Wellington John Nater	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Peterborough Emma Harrison	L	LPC safe
Pickering—Brooklin Juanita Nathan	L	LPC safe
Prescott—Russell—Cumberland Giovanna Mingarelli	L	LPC safe
Richmond Hill South Vincent Neil Ho	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Marilyn Gladu	L	CPC leaning
Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Terry Sheehan	L	LPC likely
Scarborough—Agincourt Jean Yip	L	LPC safe
Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Salma Zahid	L	LPC safe
Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park Gary Anandasangaree	L	LPC safe
Scarborough North Shaun Chen	L	LPC safe
Scarborough Southwest Doly Begum	L	LPC safe
Scarborough—Woburn Michael Coteau	L	LPC safe
Simcoe—Grey Terry Dowdall	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Simcoe North Adam Chambers	C	LPC leaning
Spadina—Harbourfront Chi Nguyen	L	LPC safe
St. Catharines Chris Bittle	L	LPC safe
Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry Eric Duncan	C	CPC leaning
Sudbury Viviane Lapointe	L	LPC safe
Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt Jim Belanger	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park Karim Bardeesy	L	LPC likely
Thornhill Melissa Lantsman	C	CPC safe
Thunder Bay—Rainy River Marcus Powlowski	L	LPC likely
Thunder Bay—Superior North Patty Hajdu	L	LPC safe
Toronto Centre Evan Solomon	L	LPC safe
Toronto—Danforth Julie Dabrusin	L	LPC safe
Toronto—St. Paul’s Leslie Church	L	LPC safe
University—Rosedale Danielle Martin	L	LPC safe
Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Guglielmin	C	CPC likely
Waterloo Bardish Chagger	L	LPC safe
Wellington—Halton Hills North Michael Chong	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
Whitby Ryan Turnbull	L	LPC safe
Willowdale Ali Ehsassi	L	LPC safe
Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Kathy Borrelli	C	LPC likely
Windsor West Harbinder Gill	C	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
York Centre Roman Baber	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
York—Durham Jacob Mantle	C	CPC leaning
York South—Weston—Etobicoke Ahmed Hussen	L	LPC safe

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Federal Projection | Ontario

Federal Seat Projection | Ontario

List of districts | Ontario Latest update: May 3, 2026

List of districts | Ontario
Latest update: May 3, 2026