Ontario | 338Canada

338Canada federal projection | Ontario, 122 districts

Federal vote projection | Ontario

Federal seat projection | Ontario

Seat projection | Ontario

List of electoral districts | Ontario

Latest update: May 18, 2025

This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Latest update: May 18, 2025

Projected ahead

Last election (2025)

Latest update: May 18, 2025

Electoral district	Transposed 2021 winner	Latest projection
35001 Ajax		LPC safe
35002 Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke		CPC safe
35003 Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill		CPC likely
35004 Barrie South—Innisfil		CPC safe
35005 Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte		CPC likely
35006 Bay of Quinte		LPC leaning
35007 Beaches—East York		LPC safe
35008 Bowmanville—Oshawa North		CPC leaning
35009 Brampton Centre		Toss up LPC/CPC
35010 Brampton—Chinguacousy Park		LPC leaning
35011 Brampton East		LPC leaning
35012 Brampton North—Caledon		Toss up LPC/CPC
35013 Brampton South		Toss up LPC/CPC
35014 Brampton West		Toss up LPC/CPC
35015 Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations		CPC likely
35016 Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound		CPC likely
35017 Burlington		LPC safe
35018 Burlington North—Milton West		LPC likely
35019 Cambridge		Toss up LPC/CPC
35020 Carleton		LPC leaning
35021 Chatham-Kent—Leamington		CPC safe
35022 Davenport		LPC safe
35023 Don Valley North		LPC likely
35024 Don Valley West		LPC safe
35025 Dufferin—Caledon		CPC safe
35026 Eglinton—Lawrence		Toss up LPC/CPC
35027 Elgin—St. Thomas—London South		CPC likely
35028 Essex		CPC safe
35029 Etobicoke Centre		LPC likely
35030 Etobicoke—Lakeshore		LPC safe
35031 Etobicoke North		LPC likely
35032 Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North		CPC likely
35033 Guelph		LPC safe
35034 Haldimand—Norfolk		CPC safe
35035 Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes		CPC safe
35036 Hamilton Centre		LPC likely
35037 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek		Toss up LPC/CPC
35038 Hamilton Mountain		LPC leaning
35039 Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas		LPC safe
35040 Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga		CPC likely
35041 Humber River—Black Creek		LPC safe
35042 Huron—Bruce		CPC likely
35043 Kanata		LPC safe
35044 Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk		CPC likely
35045 Kenora—Kiiwetinoong		CPC likely
35046 Kingston and the Islands		LPC safe
35047 King—Vaughan		CPC safe
35048 Kitchener Centre		Toss up CPC/GPC
35049 Kitchener—Conestoga		Toss up LPC/CPC
35050 Kitchener South—Hespeler		Toss up LPC/CPC
35051 Lanark—Frontenac		CPC leaning
35052 Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes		CPC leaning
35053 London Centre		LPC safe
35054 London—Fanshawe		CPC likely
35055 London West		LPC safe
35056 Markham—Stouffville		LPC leaning
35057 Markham—Thornhill		LPC likely
35058 Markham—Unionville		CPC leaning
35059 Middlesex—London		CPC likely
35060 Milton East—Halton Hills South		Toss up LPC/CPC
35061 Mississauga Centre		LPC likely
35062 Mississauga East—Cooksville		LPC leaning
35063 Mississauga—Erin Mills		LPC likely
35064 Mississauga—Lakeshore		LPC likely
35065 Mississauga—Malton		LPC likely
35066 Mississauga—Streetsville		LPC leaning
35067 Nepean		LPC safe
35068 Newmarket—Aurora		CPC leaning
35069 New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury		CPC safe
35070 Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake		CPC leaning
35071 Niagara South		CPC leaning
35072 Niagara West		CPC likely
35073 Nipissing—Timiskaming		Toss up LPC/CPC
35074 Northumberland—Clarke		CPC leaning
35075 Oakville East		LPC leaning
35076 Oakville West		LPC likely
35077 Orléans		LPC safe
35078 Oshawa		CPC leaning
35079 Ottawa Centre		LPC safe
35080 Ottawa South		LPC safe
35081 Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester		LPC safe
35082 Ottawa West—Nepean		LPC safe
35083 Oxford		CPC safe
35084 Parry Sound—Muskoka		CPC likely
35085 Perth—Wellington		CPC likely
35086 Peterborough		LPC likely
35087 Pickering—Brooklin		LPC likely
35088 Prescott—Russell—Cumberland		LPC likely
35089 Richmond Hill South		CPC likely
35090 Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong		CPC safe
35091 Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma		Toss up LPC/CPC
35092 Scarborough—Agincourt		LPC likely
35093 Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East		LPC safe
35094 Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park		LPC safe
35095 Scarborough North		LPC safe
35096 Scarborough Southwest		LPC safe
35097 Scarborough—Woburn		LPC safe
35098 Simcoe—Grey		CPC likely
35099 Simcoe North		CPC leaning
35100 Spadina—Harbourfront		LPC safe
35101 St. Catharines		LPC likely
35102 Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry		CPC safe
35103 Sudbury		LPC likely
35104 Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt		CPC likely
35105 Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park		LPC safe
35106 Thornhill		CPC safe
35107 Thunder Bay—Rainy River		LPC leaning
35108 Thunder Bay—Superior North		LPC safe
35109 Toronto Centre		LPC safe
35110 Toronto—Danforth		LPC safe
35111 Toronto—St. Paul’s		LPC safe
35112 University—Rosedale		LPC safe
35113 Vaughan—Woodbridge		CPC safe
35114 Waterloo		LPC safe
35115 Wellington—Halton Hills North		CPC likely
35116 Whitby		LPC likely
35117 Willowdale		LPC likely
35118 Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore		Toss up LPC/CPC
35119 Windsor West		CPC likely
35120 York Centre		CPC likely
35121 York—Durham		CPC safe
35122 York South—Weston—Etobicoke		LPC likely