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Canada

338Canada federal projection | Ontario, 122 districts


Latest update: July 21, 2024
Ontario 46% ± 6%▲ CPC 28% ± 5% LPC 18% ± 4% NDP 4% ± 2% GPC 3% ± 3% PPC 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Ontario, 122 federal districts 91▲ [69-104] CPC 26▼ [12-45] LPC 4▼ [2-12] NDP 1 [0-2] GPC 338Canada seat projection | July 21, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Ontario

LPC 28% ± 5% CPC 46% ± 6% NDP 18% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Ontario 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC July 21, 2024 2021-12-12 LPC 39% CPC 32% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2021-12-12 2021-12-19 LPC 39% CPC 32% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2021-12-19 2022-01-02 LPC 39% CPC 32% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2022-01-02 2022-01-09 LPC 37% CPC 33% NDP 21% GPC 3% 2022-01-09 2022-01-16 LPC 36% CPC 34% NDP 21% GPC 3% 2022-01-16 2022-01-23 LPC 36% CPC 34% NDP 21% GPC 3% 2022-01-23 2022-01-30 LPC 36% CPC 33% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2022-01-30 2022-02-06 LPC 36% CPC 33% NDP 21% GPC 3% 2022-02-06 2022-02-13 LPC 37% CPC 31% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2022-02-13 2022-02-20 LPC 36% CPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2022-02-20 2022-02-27 LPC 35% CPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2022-02-27 2022-03-06 LPC 36% CPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2022-03-06 2022-03-13 LPC 37% CPC 33% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2022-03-13 2022-03-20 LPC 37% CPC 33% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2022-03-20 2022-03-27 LPC 37% CPC 33% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2022-03-27 2022-04-03 LPC 37% CPC 33% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2022-04-03 2022-04-10 LPC 37% CPC 33% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2022-04-10 2022-04-17 LPC 37% CPC 33% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2022-04-17 2022-04-24 LPC 37% CPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2022-04-24 2022-05-01 LPC 36% CPC 35% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2022-05-01 2022-05-08 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2022-05-08 2022-05-15 LPC 36% CPC 36% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2022-05-15 2022-05-22 LPC 36% CPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2022-05-22 2022-05-29 LPC 36% CPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2022-05-29 2022-06-05 LPC 36% CPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2022-06-05 2022-06-12 LPC 37% CPC 34% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2022-06-12 2022-06-19 LPC 36% CPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2022-06-19 2022-06-26 LPC 36% CPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2022-06-26 2022-07-03 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2022-07-03 2022-07-10 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2022-07-10 2022-07-17 LPC 35% CPC 34% NDP 22% GPC 4% 2022-07-17 2022-07-24 CPC 35% LPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2022-07-24 2022-07-31 CPC 35% LPC 34% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2022-07-31 2022-08-07 CPC 36% LPC 34% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2022-08-07 2022-08-14 LPC 35% CPC 34% NDP 22% GPC 4% 2022-08-14 2022-08-21 CPC 35% LPC 35% NDP 22% GPC 4% 2022-08-21 2022-08-28 LPC 35% CPC 35% NDP 22% GPC 4% 2022-08-28 2022-09-04 LPC 35% CPC 34% NDP 22% GPC 4% 2022-09-04 2022-09-11 LPC 35% CPC 34% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2022-09-11 2022-09-18 LPC 35% CPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2022-09-18 2022-09-25 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2022-09-25 2022-10-02 CPC 37% LPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2022-10-02 2022-10-09 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2022-10-09 2022-10-16 LPC 36% CPC 36% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2022-10-16 2022-10-23 LPC 36% CPC 36% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2022-10-23 2022-10-30 LPC 37% CPC 37% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2022-10-30 2022-11-06 CPC 38% LPC 36% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2022-11-06 2022-11-13 LPC 37% CPC 37% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2022-11-13 2022-11-20 LPC 37% CPC 36% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2022-11-20 2022-11-27 LPC 38% CPC 35% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2022-11-27 2022-12-04 LPC 37% CPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2022-12-04 2022-12-11 LPC 37% CPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2022-12-11 2022-12-18 LPC 36% CPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2022-12-18 2022-12-25 LPC 36% CPC 36% NDP 22% GPC 4% 2022-12-25 2023-01-01 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2023-01-01 2023-01-08 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2023-01-08 2023-01-15 CPC 37% LPC 34% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2023-01-15 2023-01-22 CPC 39% LPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2023-01-22 2023-01-29 CPC 37% LPC 36% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2023-01-29 2023-02-05 CPC 38% LPC 37% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2023-02-05 2023-02-12 CPC 37% LPC 37% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2023-02-12 2023-02-19 LPC 38% CPC 36% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2023-02-19 2023-02-26 LPC 37% CPC 36% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2023-02-26 2023-03-05 LPC 37% CPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2023-03-05 2023-03-12 CPC 36% LPC 36% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2023-03-12 2023-03-19 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2023-03-19 2023-03-26 LPC 36% CPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2023-03-26 2023-04-02 LPC 36% CPC 35% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2023-04-02 2023-04-09 LPC 36% CPC 36% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2023-04-09 2023-04-16 LPC 36% CPC 36% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2023-04-16 2023-04-23 LPC 36% CPC 36% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2023-04-23 2023-04-30 CPC 36% LPC 36% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2023-04-30 2023-05-07 CPC 37% LPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2023-05-07 2023-05-14 CPC 37% LPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2023-05-14 2023-05-21 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2023-05-21 2023-05-28 CPC 37% LPC 34% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2023-05-28 2023-06-04 CPC 37% LPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2023-06-04 2023-06-11 CPC 37% LPC 34% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2023-06-11 2023-06-18 CPC 37% LPC 35% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2023-06-18 2023-06-25 LPC 36% CPC 36% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2023-06-25 2023-07-02 CPC 36% LPC 36% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2023-07-02 2023-07-09 CPC 37% LPC 36% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2023-07-09 2023-07-16 CPC 37% LPC 36% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2023-07-16 2023-07-23 CPC 37% LPC 37% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2023-07-23 2023-07-30 CPC 39% LPC 34% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2023-07-30 2023-08-06 CPC 39% LPC 34% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2023-08-06 2023-08-13 CPC 39% LPC 34% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2023-08-13 2023-08-20 CPC 39% LPC 34% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2023-08-20 2023-08-27 CPC 40% LPC 33% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2023-08-27 2023-09-03 CPC 40% LPC 32% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2023-09-03 2023-09-10 CPC 40% LPC 33% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2023-09-10 2023-09-17 CPC 40% LPC 33% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2023-09-17 2023-09-24 CPC 40% LPC 34% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2023-09-24 2023-10-01 CPC 41% LPC 33% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2023-10-01 2023-10-08 CPC 41% LPC 33% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2023-10-08 2023-10-15 CPC 42% LPC 32% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2023-10-15 2023-10-22 CPC 43% LPC 31% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2023-10-22 2023-10-29 CPC 43% LPC 32% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2023-10-29 2023-11-05 CPC 43% LPC 32% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2023-11-05 2023-11-12 CPC 42% LPC 32% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2023-11-12 2023-11-19 CPC 43% LPC 30% NDP 18% GPC 6% 2023-11-19 2023-11-26 CPC 43% LPC 30% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2023-11-26 2023-12-03 CPC 43% LPC 28% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2023-12-03 2023-12-10 CPC 43% LPC 28% NDP 21% GPC 5% 2023-12-10 2023-12-17 CPC 42% LPC 30% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2023-12-17 2023-12-24 CPC 42% LPC 30% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2023-12-24 2023-12-31 CPC 42% LPC 30% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2023-12-31 2024-01-07 CPC 43% LPC 30% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-01-07 2024-01-14 CPC 43% LPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-01-14 2024-01-21 CPC 43% LPC 30% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-01-21 2024-01-28 CPC 43% LPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-01-28 2024-02-04 CPC 43% LPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-02-04 2024-02-11 CPC 43% LPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-02-11 2024-02-18 CPC 43% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-02-18 2024-02-25 CPC 44% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-02-25 2024-03-03 CPC 43% LPC 29% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-03-03 2024-03-10 CPC 44% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-03-10 2024-03-17 CPC 44% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 CPC 45% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-03-24 2024-03-31 CPC 45% LPC 29% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-03-31 2024-04-07 CPC 45% LPC 30% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-04-07 2024-04-14 CPC 45% LPC 30% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-04-14 2024-04-21 CPC 46% LPC 29% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-04-21 2024-04-28 CPC 45% LPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-04-28 2024-05-05 CPC 46% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-05-05 2024-05-12 CPC 46% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 46% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 45% LPC 29% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 45% LPC 29% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 45% LPC 29% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 44% LPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 44% LPC 28% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 45% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 45% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 45% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 46% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-07-21

Seat projection | Ontario

LPC 26 [12-45] CPC 91 [69-104] NDP 4 [2-12] GPC 1 [0-2] Seat projection | Ontario 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC July 21, 2024 2021-12-12 LPC 77 CPC 36 NDP 7 GPC 1 2021-12-12 2021-12-19 LPC 77 CPC 36 NDP 7 GPC 1 2021-12-19 2022-01-02 LPC 75 CPC 37 NDP 8 GPC 1 2022-01-02 2022-01-09 LPC 67 CPC 39 NDP 14 GPC 1 2022-01-09 2022-01-16 LPC 65 CPC 41 NDP 14 GPC 1 2022-01-16 2022-01-23 LPC 63 CPC 43 NDP 14 GPC 1 2022-01-23 2022-01-30 LPC 68 CPC 39 NDP 13 GPC 1 2022-01-30 2022-02-06 LPC 67 CPC 39 NDP 14 GPC 1 2022-02-06 2022-02-13 LPC 72 CPC 36 NDP 12 GPC 1 2022-02-13 2022-02-20 LPC 69 CPC 43 NDP 8 GPC 1 2022-02-20 2022-02-27 LPC 67 CPC 44 NDP 9 GPC 1 2022-02-27 2022-03-06 LPC 75 CPC 40 NDP 5 GPC 1 2022-03-06 2022-03-13 LPC 74 CPC 40 NDP 6 GPC 1 2022-03-13 2022-03-20 LPC 74 CPC 40 NDP 6 GPC 1 2022-03-20 2022-03-27 LPC 74 CPC 40 NDP 6 GPC 1 2022-03-27 2022-04-03 LPC 74 CPC 40 NDP 6 GPC 1 2022-04-03 2022-04-10 LPC 77 CPC 38 NDP 5 GPC 1 2022-04-10 2022-04-17 LPC 75 CPC 40 NDP 5 GPC 1 2022-04-17 2022-04-24 LPC 75 CPC 40 NDP 5 GPC 1 2022-04-24 2022-05-01 LPC 65 CPC 50 NDP 5 GPC 1 2022-05-01 2022-05-08 LPC 58 CPC 57 NDP 5 GPC 1 2022-05-08 2022-05-15 LPC 63 CPC 52 NDP 5 GPC 1 2022-05-15 2022-05-22 LPC 64 CPC 51 NDP 5 GPC 1 2022-05-22 2022-05-29 LPC 71 CPC 44 NDP 5 GPC 1 2022-05-29 2022-06-05 LPC 73 CPC 41 NDP 6 GPC 1 2022-06-05 2022-06-12 LPC 74 CPC 41 NDP 5 GPC 1 2022-06-12 2022-06-19 LPC 64 CPC 50 NDP 6 GPC 1 2022-06-19 2022-06-26 LPC 62 CPC 51 NDP 7 GPC 1 2022-06-26 2022-07-03 CPC 55 LPC 52 NDP 13 GPC 1 2022-07-03 2022-07-10 CPC 57 LPC 49 NDP 14 GPC 1 2022-07-10 2022-07-17 LPC 58 CPC 51 NDP 11 GPC 1 2022-07-17 2022-07-24 CPC 56 LPC 50 NDP 14 GPC 1 2022-07-24 2022-07-31 CPC 57 LPC 49 NDP 14 GPC 1 2022-07-31 2022-08-07 CPC 58 LPC 50 NDP 12 GPC 1 2022-08-07 2022-08-14 LPC 53 CPC 52 NDP 15 GPC 1 2022-08-14 2022-08-21 CPC 53 LPC 52 NDP 15 GPC 1 2022-08-21 2022-08-28 LPC 53 CPC 52 NDP 15 GPC 1 2022-08-28 2022-09-04 LPC 59 CPC 51 NDP 10 GPC 1 2022-09-04 2022-09-11 LPC 59 CPC 51 NDP 10 GPC 1 2022-09-11 2022-09-18 LPC 56 CPC 52 NDP 12 GPC 1 2022-09-18 2022-09-25 CPC 57 LPC 54 NDP 9 GPC 1 2022-09-25 2022-10-02 CPC 59 LPC 52 NDP 9 GPC 1 2022-10-02 2022-10-09 CPC 65 LPC 45 NDP 10 GPC 1 2022-10-09 2022-10-16 LPC 62 CPC 52 NDP 6 GPC 1 2022-10-16 2022-10-23 LPC 63 CPC 52 NDP 5 GPC 1 2022-10-23 2022-10-30 LPC 63 CPC 52 NDP 5 GPC 1 2022-10-30 2022-11-06 LPC 58 CPC 57 NDP 5 GPC 1 2022-11-06 2022-11-13 LPC 65 CPC 50 NDP 5 GPC 1 2022-11-13 2022-11-20 LPC 68 CPC 47 NDP 5 GPC 1 2022-11-20 2022-11-27 LPC 74 CPC 41 NDP 5 GPC 1 2022-11-27 2022-12-04 LPC 74 CPC 41 NDP 5 GPC 1 2022-12-04 2022-12-11 LPC 71 CPC 42 NDP 7 GPC 1 2022-12-11 2022-12-18 LPC 65 CPC 47 NDP 8 GPC 1 2022-12-18 2022-12-25 LPC 60 CPC 47 NDP 13 GPC 1 2022-12-25 2023-01-01 LPC 60 CPC 49 NDP 11 GPC 1 2023-01-01 2023-01-08 LPC 58 CPC 52 NDP 10 GPC 1 2023-01-08 2023-01-15 LPC 57 CPC 55 NDP 8 GPC 1 2023-01-15 2023-01-22 CPC 64 LPC 49 NDP 7 GPC 1 2023-01-22 2023-01-29 LPC 62 CPC 52 NDP 6 GPC 1 2023-01-29 2023-02-05 LPC 66 CPC 49 NDP 5 GPC 1 2023-02-05 2023-02-12 LPC 66 CPC 49 NDP 5 GPC 1 2023-02-12 2023-02-19 LPC 70 CPC 45 NDP 5 GPC 1 2023-02-19 2023-02-26 LPC 68 CPC 47 NDP 5 GPC 1 2023-02-26 2023-03-05 LPC 69 CPC 46 NDP 5 GPC 1 2023-03-05 2023-03-12 LPC 65 CPC 49 NDP 6 GPC 1 2023-03-12 2023-03-19 LPC 61 CPC 48 NDP 11 GPC 1 2023-03-19 2023-03-26 LPC 66 CPC 46 NDP 8 GPC 1 2023-03-26 2023-04-02 LPC 68 CPC 46 NDP 6 GPC 1 2023-04-02 2023-04-09 LPC 66 CPC 47 NDP 7 GPC 1 2023-04-09 2023-04-16 LPC 64 CPC 47 NDP 9 GPC 1 2023-04-16 2023-04-23 LPC 66 CPC 47 NDP 7 GPC 1 2023-04-23 2023-04-30 LPC 65 CPC 49 NDP 6 GPC 1 2023-04-30 2023-05-07 LPC 60 CPC 54 NDP 6 GPC 1 2023-05-07 2023-05-14 LPC 58 CPC 55 NDP 7 GPC 1 2023-05-14 2023-05-21 CPC 61 LPC 51 NDP 8 GPC 1 2023-05-21 2023-05-28 LPC 57 CPC 55 NDP 8 GPC 1 2023-05-28 2023-06-04 LPC 59 CPC 53 NDP 8 GPC 1 2023-06-04 2023-06-11 LPC 56 CPC 55 NDP 9 GPC 1 2023-06-11 2023-06-18 LPC 59 CPC 54 NDP 7 GPC 1 2023-06-18 2023-06-25 LPC 67 CPC 48 NDP 5 GPC 1 2023-06-25 2023-07-02 LPC 66 CPC 49 NDP 5 GPC 1 2023-07-02 2023-07-09 LPC 66 CPC 49 NDP 5 GPC 1 2023-07-09 2023-07-16 LPC 67 CPC 48 NDP 5 GPC 1 2023-07-16 2023-07-23 LPC 67 CPC 48 NDP 5 GPC 1 2023-07-23 2023-07-30 CPC 63 LPC 50 NDP 7 GPC 1 2023-07-30 2023-08-06 CPC 63 LPC 50 NDP 7 GPC 1 2023-08-06 2023-08-13 CPC 65 LPC 48 NDP 7 GPC 1 2023-08-13 2023-08-20 CPC 62 LPC 51 NDP 7 GPC 1 2023-08-20 2023-08-27 CPC 70 LPC 42 NDP 8 GPC 1 2023-08-27 2023-09-03 CPC 73 LPC 39 NDP 8 GPC 1 2023-09-03 2023-09-10 CPC 72 LPC 40 NDP 8 GPC 1 2023-09-10 2023-09-17 CPC 70 LPC 42 NDP 8 GPC 1 2023-09-17 2023-09-24 CPC 67 LPC 47 NDP 6 GPC 1 2023-09-24 2023-10-01 CPC 71 LPC 44 NDP 5 GPC 1 2023-10-01 2023-10-08 CPC 71 LPC 44 NDP 5 GPC 1 2023-10-08 2023-10-15 CPC 80 LPC 35 NDP 5 GPC 1 2023-10-15 2023-10-22 CPC 85 LPC 30 NDP 5 GPC 1 2023-10-22 2023-10-29 CPC 85 LPC 30 NDP 5 GPC 1 2023-10-29 2023-11-05 CPC 83 LPC 32 NDP 5 GPC 1 2023-11-05 2023-11-12 CPC 82 LPC 33 NDP 5 GPC 1 2023-11-12 2023-11-19 CPC 86 LPC 24 NDP 10 GPC 1 2023-11-19 2023-11-26 CPC 86 LPC 24 NDP 10 GPC 1 2023-11-26 2023-12-03 CPC 88 LPC 20 NDP 12 GPC 1 2023-12-03 2023-12-10 CPC 87 LPC 21 NDP 12 GPC 1 2023-12-10 2023-12-17 CPC 83 LPC 25 NDP 12 GPC 1 2023-12-17 2023-12-24 CPC 84 LPC 26 NDP 10 GPC 1 2023-12-24 2023-12-31 CPC 86 LPC 24 NDP 10 GPC 1 2023-12-31 2024-01-07 CPC 86 LPC 24 NDP 10 GPC 1 2024-01-07 2024-01-14 CPC 86 LPC 24 NDP 10 GPC 1 2024-01-14 2024-01-21 CPC 86 LPC 24 NDP 10 GPC 1 2024-01-21 2024-01-28 CPC 86 LPC 24 NDP 10 GPC 1 2024-01-28 2024-02-04 CPC 86 LPC 24 NDP 10 GPC 1 2024-02-04 2024-02-11 CPC 86 LPC 24 NDP 10 GPC 1 2024-02-11 2024-02-18 CPC 87 LPC 23 NDP 10 GPC 1 2024-02-18 2024-02-25 CPC 89 LPC 21 NDP 10 GPC 1 2024-02-25 2024-03-03 CPC 85 LPC 25 NDP 10 GPC 1 2024-03-03 2024-03-10 CPC 89 LPC 21 NDP 10 GPC 1 2024-03-10 2024-03-17 CPC 89 LPC 22 NDP 9 GPC 1 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 CPC 89 LPC 22 NDP 9 GPC 1 2024-03-24 2024-03-31 CPC 90 LPC 22 NDP 8 GPC 1 2024-03-31 2024-04-07 CPC 88 LPC 25 NDP 7 GPC 1 2024-04-07 2024-04-14 CPC 86 LPC 28 NDP 6 GPC 1 2024-04-14 2024-04-21 CPC 86 LPC 28 NDP 7 GPC 1 2024-04-21 2024-04-28 CPC 83 LPC 27 NDP 11 GPC 1 2024-04-28 2024-05-05 CPC 88 LPC 25 NDP 8 GPC 1 2024-05-05 2024-05-12 CPC 88 LPC 25 NDP 8 GPC 1 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 88 LPC 25 NDP 8 GPC 1 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 82 LPC 32 NDP 7 GPC 1 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 81 LPC 32 NDP 8 GPC 1 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 81 LPC 32 NDP 8 GPC 1 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 77 LPC 35 NDP 9 GPC 1 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 82 LPC 28 NDP 11 GPC 1 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 90 LPC 26 NDP 5 GPC 1 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 87 LPC 29 NDP 5 GPC 1 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 89 LPC 27 NDP 5 GPC 1 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 91 LPC 26 NDP 4 GPC 1 2024-07-21

Seat projection | Ontario


Latest update: July 21, 2024
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2021)
52 16 9 14 91 40
4 8 9 5 26 77
2 1 0 1 4 4
0 0 1 0 1 1

List of electoral districts | Ontario


Latest update: July 21, 2024
Electoral district Transposed
2021 winner		 Latest projection
35001 Ajax LPC likely
35002 Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe
35003 Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC safe
35004 Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe
35005 Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC safe
35006 Bay of Quinte CPC safe
35007 Beaches—East York LPC safe
35008 Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC safe
35009 Brampton Centre CPC leaning
35010 Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC
35011 Brampton East LPC leaning
35012 Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC
35013 Brampton South LPC leaning
35014 Brampton West LPC leaning
35015 Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC safe
35016 Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC safe
35017 Burlington CPC likely
35018 Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely
35019 Cambridge CPC safe
35020 Carleton CPC safe
35021 Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe
35022 Davenport LPC leaning
35023 Don Valley North CPC leaning
35024 Don Valley West Toss up LPC/CPC
35025 Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe
35026 Eglinton—Lawrence CPC safe
35027 Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC safe
35028 Essex CPC safe
35029 Etobicoke Centre CPC likely
35030 Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC likely
35031 Etobicoke North LPC leaning
35032 Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC safe
35033 Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC
35034 Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe
35035 Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe
35036 Hamilton Centre NDP safe
35037 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely
35038 Hamilton Mountain Toss up CPC/NDP
35039 Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC leaning
35040 Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC safe
35041 Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe
35042 Huron—Bruce CPC safe
35043 Kanata CPC likely
35044 Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Toss up CPC/NDP
35045 Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC safe
35046 Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35047 King—Vaughan CPC safe
35048 Kitchener Centre GPC leaning
35049 Kitchener—Conestoga CPC safe
35050 Kitchener South—Hespeler CPC safe
35051 Lanark—Frontenac CPC safe
35052 Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC safe
35053 London Centre Toss up CPC/NDP
35054 London—Fanshawe NDP likely
35055 London West CPC safe
35056 Markham—Stouffville CPC leaning
35057 Markham—Thornhill LPC likely
35058 Markham—Unionville CPC likely
35059 Middlesex—London CPC safe
35060 Milton East—Halton Hills South CPC safe
35061 Mississauga Centre LPC leaning
35062 Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up LPC/CPC
35063 Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up LPC/CPC
35064 Mississauga—Lakeshore CPC likely
35065 Mississauga—Malton Toss up LPC/CPC
35066 Mississauga—Streetsville CPC leaning
35067 Nepean CPC likely
35068 Newmarket—Aurora CPC safe
35069 New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe
35070 Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC safe
35071 Niagara South CPC safe
35072 Niagara West CPC safe
35073 Nipissing—Timiskaming CPC safe
35074 Northumberland—Clarke CPC safe
35075 Oakville East CPC likely
35076 Oakville West CPC likely
35077 Orléans LPC leaning
35078 Oshawa CPC safe
35079 Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
35080 Ottawa South LPC leaning
35081 Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC likely
35082 Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC
35083 Oxford CPC safe
35084 Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC safe
35085 Perth—Wellington CPC safe
35086 Peterborough CPC safe
35087 Pickering—Brooklin CPC leaning
35088 Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC leaning
35089 Richmond Hill South CPC likely
35090 Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe
35091 Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma CPC safe
35092 Scarborough—Agincourt Toss up LPC/CPC
35093 Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC leaning
35094 Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC likely
35095 Scarborough North LPC safe
35096 Scarborough Southwest LPC likely
35097 Scarborough—Woburn LPC likely
35098 Simcoe—Grey CPC safe
35099 Simcoe North CPC safe
35100 Spadina—Harbourfront Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35101 St. Catharines CPC safe
35102 Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe
35103 Sudbury CPC likely
35104 Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning
35105 Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park Toss up LPC/NDP
35106 Thornhill CPC safe
35107 Thunder Bay—Rainy River CPC likely
35108 Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35109 Toronto Centre LPC safe
35110 Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35111 Toronto—St. Paul’s Toss up LPC/CPC
35112 University—Rosedale LPC likely
35113 Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe
35114 Waterloo Toss up LPC/CPC
35115 Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC safe
35116 Whitby CPC likely
35117 Willowdale CPC likely
35118 Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore CPC leaning
35119 Windsor West NDP safe
35120 York Centre CPC safe
35121 York—Durham CPC safe
35122 York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely