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338Canada federal projection | Ontario, 122 districts


Latest update: January 19, 2025
Ontario 48% ± 6%▼ CPC 25% ± 5%▲ LPC 19% ± 4%▼ NDP 4% ± 3% GPC 3% ± 3% PPC 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 19, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Ontario, 122 federal districts 98▼ [80-111] CPC 15▲ [4-32] LPC 8▼ [2-14] NDP 1 [0-2] GPC 338Canada seat projection | January 19, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Ontario

LPC 25% ± 5% CPC 48% ± 6% NDP 19% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Ontario 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC January 19, 2025 2024-01-14 CPC 43% LPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-01-14 2024-01-21 CPC 43% LPC 30% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-01-21 2024-01-28 CPC 43% LPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-01-28 2024-02-04 CPC 43% LPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-02-04 2024-02-11 CPC 43% LPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-02-11 2024-02-18 CPC 43% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-02-18 2024-02-25 CPC 44% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-02-25 2024-03-03 CPC 43% LPC 29% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2024-03-03 2024-03-10 CPC 44% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-03-10 2024-03-17 CPC 44% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 CPC 45% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-03-24 2024-03-31 CPC 45% LPC 29% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-03-31 2024-04-07 CPC 45% LPC 30% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-04-07 2024-04-14 CPC 45% LPC 30% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-04-14 2024-04-21 CPC 46% LPC 29% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-04-21 2024-04-28 CPC 45% LPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-04-28 2024-05-05 CPC 46% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-05-05 2024-05-12 CPC 46% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 46% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 45% LPC 29% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 45% LPC 29% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 45% LPC 29% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 44% LPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 44% LPC 28% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 45% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 45% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 45% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 46% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 46% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 45% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 45% LPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 44% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 44% LPC 29% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 45% LPC 29% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 45% LPC 29% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 46% LPC 28% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 47% LPC 28% NDP 16% GPC 5% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 47% LPC 27% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 48% LPC 26% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 47% LPC 27% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 46% LPC 27% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 46% LPC 27% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 46% LPC 27% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 46% LPC 27% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 45% LPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 46% LPC 27% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 47% LPC 26% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 47% LPC 25% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 47% LPC 25% NDP 20% GPC 5% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 48% LPC 24% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 48% LPC 24% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 48% LPC 23% NDP 21% GPC 4% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 49% LPC 24% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 48% LPC 25% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2025-01-19 Trudeau resigns

Seat projection | Ontario

LPC 15 [4-32] CPC 98 [80-111] NDP 8 [2-14] GPC 1 [0-2] Seat projection | Ontario 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC January 19, 2025 2024-01-14 CPC 86 LPC 24 NDP 10 GPC 1 2024-01-14 2024-01-21 CPC 86 LPC 24 NDP 10 GPC 1 2024-01-21 2024-01-28 CPC 86 LPC 24 NDP 10 GPC 1 2024-01-28 2024-02-04 CPC 86 LPC 24 NDP 10 GPC 1 2024-02-04 2024-02-11 CPC 86 LPC 24 NDP 10 GPC 1 2024-02-11 2024-02-18 CPC 87 LPC 23 NDP 10 GPC 1 2024-02-18 2024-02-25 CPC 89 LPC 21 NDP 10 GPC 1 2024-02-25 2024-03-03 CPC 85 LPC 25 NDP 10 GPC 1 2024-03-03 2024-03-10 CPC 89 LPC 21 NDP 10 GPC 1 2024-03-10 2024-03-17 CPC 89 LPC 22 NDP 9 GPC 1 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 CPC 89 LPC 22 NDP 9 GPC 1 2024-03-24 2024-03-31 CPC 90 LPC 22 NDP 8 GPC 1 2024-03-31 2024-04-07 CPC 88 LPC 25 NDP 7 GPC 1 2024-04-07 2024-04-14 CPC 86 LPC 28 NDP 6 GPC 1 2024-04-14 2024-04-21 CPC 86 LPC 28 NDP 7 GPC 1 2024-04-21 2024-04-28 CPC 83 LPC 27 NDP 11 GPC 1 2024-04-28 2024-05-05 CPC 88 LPC 25 NDP 8 GPC 1 2024-05-05 2024-05-12 CPC 88 LPC 25 NDP 8 GPC 1 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 88 LPC 25 NDP 8 GPC 1 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 82 LPC 32 NDP 7 GPC 1 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 81 LPC 32 NDP 8 GPC 1 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 81 LPC 32 NDP 8 GPC 1 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 77 LPC 35 NDP 9 GPC 1 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 82 LPC 28 NDP 11 GPC 1 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 90 LPC 26 NDP 5 GPC 1 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 87 LPC 29 NDP 5 GPC 1 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 89 LPC 27 NDP 5 GPC 1 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 91 LPC 26 NDP 4 GPC 1 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 91 LPC 25 NDP 5 GPC 1 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 88 LPC 24 NDP 9 GPC 1 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 89 LPC 25 NDP 7 GPC 1 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 83 LPC 31 NDP 7 GPC 1 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 77 LPC 38 NDP 6 GPC 1 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 82 LPC 35 NDP 4 GPC 1 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 85 LPC 32 NDP 4 GPC 1 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 92 LPC 26 NDP 3 GPC 1 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 93 LPC 25 NDP 3 GPC 1 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 94 LPC 23 NDP 4 GPC 1 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 98 LPC 18 NDP 5 GPC 1 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 93 LPC 22 NDP 6 GPC 1 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 93 LPC 22 NDP 6 GPC 1 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 92 LPC 23 NDP 6 GPC 1 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 90 LPC 24 NDP 7 GPC 1 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 90 LPC 26 NDP 5 GPC 1 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 89 LPC 26 NDP 6 GPC 1 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 93 LPC 22 NDP 6 GPC 1 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 96 LPC 18 NDP 7 GPC 1 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 97 LPC 15 NDP 9 GPC 1 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 97 LPC 15 NDP 9 GPC 1 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 98 LPC 14 NDP 9 GPC 1 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 98 LPC 14 NDP 9 GPC 1 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 101 LPC 11 NDP 9 GPC 1 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 99 LPC 13 NDP 9 GPC 1 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 98 LPC 15 NDP 8 GPC 1 2025-01-19 Trudeau resigns

Seat projection | Ontario


Latest update: January 19, 2025
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2021)
58 19 15 6 98 40
0 6 5 4 15 77
1 1 3 3 8 4
0 0 1 0 1 1

List of electoral districts | Ontario


Latest update: January 19, 2025
Electoral district Transposed
2021 winner
Latest projection
35001 Ajax Toss up LPC/CPC
35002 Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC safe
35003 Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC safe
35004 Barrie South—Innisfil CPC safe
35005 Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC safe
35006 Bay of Quinte CPC safe
35007 Beaches—East York LPC likely
35008 Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC safe
35009 Brampton Centre CPC likely
35010 Brampton—Chinguacousy Park CPC leaning
35011 Brampton East Toss up LPC/CPC
35012 Brampton North—Caledon CPC likely
35013 Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC
35014 Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC
35015 Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC safe
35016 Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC safe
35017 Burlington CPC safe
35018 Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely
35019 Cambridge CPC safe
35020 Carleton CPC safe
35021 Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC safe
35022 Davenport NDP leaning
35023 Don Valley North CPC likely
35024 Don Valley West CPC leaning
35025 Dufferin—Caledon CPC safe
35026 Eglinton—Lawrence CPC safe
35027 Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC safe
35028 Essex CPC safe
35029 Etobicoke Centre CPC safe
35030 Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC likely
35031 Etobicoke North Toss up LPC/CPC
35032 Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC safe
35033 Guelph CPC leaning
35034 Haldimand—Norfolk CPC safe
35035 Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC safe
35036 Hamilton Centre NDP safe
35037 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely
35038 Hamilton Mountain CPC leaning
35039 Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC likely
35040 Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC safe
35041 Humber River—Black Creek LPC likely
35042 Huron—Bruce CPC safe
35043 Kanata CPC safe
35044 Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Toss up CPC/NDP
35045 Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC safe
35046 Kingston and the Islands CPC leaning
35047 King—Vaughan CPC safe
35048 Kitchener Centre GPC leaning
35049 Kitchener—Conestoga CPC safe
35050 Kitchener South—Hespeler CPC safe
35051 Lanark—Frontenac CPC safe
35052 Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC safe
35053 London Centre CPC leaning
35054 London—Fanshawe NDP leaning
35055 London West CPC safe
35056 Markham—Stouffville CPC likely
35057 Markham—Thornhill LPC leaning
35058 Markham—Unionville CPC safe
35059 Middlesex—London CPC safe
35060 Milton East—Halton Hills South CPC safe
35061 Mississauga Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
35062 Mississauga East—Cooksville CPC leaning
35063 Mississauga—Erin Mills CPC likely
35064 Mississauga—Lakeshore CPC safe
35065 Mississauga—Malton CPC leaning
35066 Mississauga—Streetsville CPC likely
35067 Nepean CPC likely
35068 Newmarket—Aurora CPC safe
35069 New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC safe
35070 Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC safe
35071 Niagara South CPC safe
35072 Niagara West CPC safe
35073 Nipissing—Timiskaming CPC safe
35074 Northumberland—Clarke CPC safe
35075 Oakville East CPC safe
35076 Oakville West CPC likely
35077 Orléans Toss up LPC/CPC
35078 Oshawa CPC safe
35079 Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
35080 Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC
35081 Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC leaning
35082 Ottawa West—Nepean CPC leaning
35083 Oxford CPC safe
35084 Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC safe
35085 Perth—Wellington CPC safe
35086 Peterborough CPC safe
35087 Pickering—Brooklin CPC likely
35088 Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC likely
35089 Richmond Hill South CPC likely
35090 Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC safe
35091 Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma CPC safe
35092 Scarborough—Agincourt CPC leaning
35093 Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Toss up LPC/CPC
35094 Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC likely
35095 Scarborough North LPC likely
35096 Scarborough Southwest LPC likely
35097 Scarborough—Woburn LPC leaning
35098 Simcoe—Grey CPC safe
35099 Simcoe North CPC safe
35100 Spadina—Harbourfront Toss up CPC/NDP
35101 St. Catharines CPC safe
35102 Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC safe
35103 Sudbury CPC likely
35104 Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning
35105 Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park NDP leaning
35106 Thornhill CPC safe
35107 Thunder Bay—Rainy River CPC likely
35108 Thunder Bay—Superior North CPC leaning
35109 Toronto Centre LPC likely
35110 Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35111 Toronto—St. Paul’s CPC leaning
35112 University—Rosedale LPC leaning
35113 Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC safe
35114 Waterloo CPC leaning
35115 Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC safe
35116 Whitby CPC likely
35117 Willowdale CPC likely
35118 Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore CPC leaning
35119 Windsor West NDP likely
35120 York Centre CPC safe
35121 York—Durham CPC safe
35122 York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC leaning