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Canada

Ontario, 121 districts



Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2021)
21 15 14 11 61 78
31 4 8 5 48 37
4 1 0 6 11 5
1 0 0 0 1 1
Projected ahead Last election (2021)
61 78
48 37
11 5
1 1




Projection | Ontario


Latest update: March 19, 2023
Ontario 36% ± 6% CPC 35% ± 6% LPC 21% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 2% GPC 3% ± 2% PPC 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 19, 2023
Ontario, 121 districts 61 [37-79] LPC 48 [32-69] CPC 11 [4-23] NDP 1 [1-1] GPC 338Canada seat projection | March 19, 2023

Popular vote projection | Ontario

LPC 35% ± 6% CPC 36% ± 6% NDP 21% ± 5% GPC 4% ± 2% PPC 3% ± 2% 338Canada Popular vote projection % | Ontario 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-03-01 2022-05-01 2022-07-01 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Seat projection | Ontario

LPC 61 [37-79] CPC 48 [32-69] NDP 11 [4-23] GPC 1 [1-1] 338Canada seat projection | Ontario 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-03-01 2022-05-01 2022-07-01 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

List of electoral districts


Latest update: March 19, 2023
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
35001 Ajax LPC safe hold
35002 Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP safe hold
35003 Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC
35004 Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe hold
35005 Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC safe hold
35006 Bay of Quinte CPC safe hold
35007 Beaches–East York LPC safe hold
35008 Brampton Centre LPC likely hold
35009 Brampton East LPC safe hold
35010 Brampton North LPC safe hold
35011 Brampton South LPC safe hold
35012 Brampton West LPC safe hold
35013 Brantford–Brant CPC safe hold
35014 Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe hold
35015 Burlington LPC leaning hold
35016 Cambridge CPC leaning gain
35017 Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe hold
35018 Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP
35019 Don Valley East LPC safe hold
35020 Don Valley North LPC safe hold
35021 Don Valley West LPC likely hold
35022 Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe hold
35023 Durham CPC safe hold
35024 Eglinton–Lawrence LPC leaning hold
35025 Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe hold
35026 Essex CPC leaning hold
35027 Etobicoke Centre LPC leaning hold
35028 Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC likely hold
35029 Etobicoke North LPC safe hold
35030 Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC likely hold
35031 Glengarry–Prescott–Russell Toss up LPC/CPC
35032 Guelph LPC likely hold
35033 Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe hold
35034 Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe hold
35035 Hamilton Centre NDP safe hold
35036 Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35037 Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/NDP
35038 Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas Toss up LPC/CPC
35039 Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC safe hold
35040 Huron–Bruce CPC safe hold
35041 Kanata–Carleton CPC leaning gain
35042 Kenora CPC leaning hold
35043 King–Vaughan CPC leaning hold
35044 Kingston and the Islands LPC leaning hold
35045 Kitchener Centre GPC safe hold
35046 Kitchener–Conestoga CPC likely gain
35047 Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC likely gain
35048 Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe hold
35049 Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe hold
35050 Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe hold
35051 London–Fanshawe NDP safe hold
35052 London North Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35053 London West Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35054 Markham–Stouffville LPC likely hold
35055 Markham–Thornhill LPC safe hold
35056 Markham–Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC
35057 Milton LPC likely hold
35058 Mississauga Centre LPC safe hold
35059 Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC likely hold
35060 Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC likely hold
35061 Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC leaning hold
35062 Mississauga–Malton LPC safe hold
35063 Mississauga–Streetsville LPC likely hold
35064 Nepean LPC leaning hold
35065 Newmarket–Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC
35066 Niagara Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35067 Niagara Falls CPC safe hold
35068 Niagara West CPC safe hold
35069 Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35070 Nipissing–Timiskaming CPC leaning gain
35071 Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC safe hold
35072 Oakville LPC leaning hold
35073 Oakville North–Burlington LPC leaning hold
35074 Oshawa CPC leaning hold
35075 Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
35076 Orléans LPC likely hold
35077 Ottawa South LPC likely hold
35078 Ottawa–Vanier LPC likely hold
35079 Ottawa West–Nepean LPC leaning hold
35080 Oxford CPC safe hold
35081 Parkdale–High Park Toss up LPC/NDP
35082 Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe hold
35083 Perth–Wellington CPC safe hold
35084 Peterborough–Kawartha CPC likely hold
35085 Pickering–Uxbridge LPC leaning hold
35086 Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe hold
35087 Richmond Hill LPC leaning hold
35088 Carleton CPC safe hold
35089 St. Catharines Toss up LPC/CPC
35090 Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC safe hold
35091 Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe hold
35092 Sault Ste. Marie CPC leaning gain
35093 Scarborough–Agincourt LPC safe hold
35094 Scarborough Centre LPC safe hold
35095 Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe hold
35096 Scarborough North LPC safe hold
35097 Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe hold
35098 Scarborough Southwest LPC safe hold
35099 Simcoe–Grey CPC safe hold
35100 Simcoe North CPC safe hold
35101 Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP
35102 Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe hold
35103 Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35104 Thornhill CPC safe hold
35105 Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35106 Thunder Bay–Superior North Toss up LPC/NDP
35107 Timmins–James Bay NDP likely hold
35108 Toronto Centre LPC likely hold
35109 Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP
35110 University–Rosedale LPC likely hold
35111 Vaughan–Woodbridge Toss up LPC/CPC
35112 Waterloo LPC leaning hold
35113 Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe hold
35114 Whitby LPC leaning hold
35115 Willowdale LPC likely hold
35116 Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35117 Windsor West NDP safe hold
35118 York Centre LPC leaning hold
35119 York–Simcoe CPC safe hold
35120 York South–Weston LPC safe hold
35121 Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe hold
Electoral district
35001 Ajax
35002 Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing
35003 Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill
35004 Barrie–Innisfil
35005 Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte
35006 Bay of Quinte
35007 Beaches–East York
35008 Brampton Centre
35009 Brampton East
35010 Brampton North
35011 Brampton South
35012 Brampton West
35013 Brantford–Brant
35014 Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound
35015 Burlington
35016 Cambridge
35017 Chatham-Kent–Leamington
35018 Davenport
35019 Don Valley East
35020 Don Valley North
35021 Don Valley West
35022 Dufferin–Caledon
35023 Durham
35024 Eglinton–Lawrence
35025 Elgin–Middlesex–London
35026 Essex
35027 Etobicoke Centre
35028 Etobicoke–Lakeshore
35029 Etobicoke North
35030 Flamborough–Glanbrook
35031 Glengarry–Prescott–Russell
35032 Guelph
35033 Haldimand–Norfolk
35034 Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock
35035 Hamilton Centre
35036 Hamilton East–Stoney Creek
35037 Hamilton Mountain
35038 Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas
35039 Hastings–Lennox and Addington
35040 Huron–Bruce
35041 Kanata–Carleton
35042 Kenora
35043 King–Vaughan
35044 Kingston and the Islands
35045 Kitchener Centre
35046 Kitchener–Conestoga
35047 Kitchener South–Hespeler
35048 Lambton–Kent–Middlesex
35049 Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston
35050 Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
35051 London–Fanshawe
35052 London North Centre
35053 London West
35054 Markham–Stouffville
35055 Markham–Thornhill
35056 Markham–Unionville
35057 Milton
35058 Mississauga Centre
35059 Mississauga East–Cooksville
35060 Mississauga–Erin Mills
35061 Mississauga–Lakeshore
35062 Mississauga–Malton
35063 Mississauga–Streetsville
35064 Nepean
35065 Newmarket–Aurora
35066 Niagara Centre
35067 Niagara Falls
35068 Niagara West
35069 Nickel Belt
35070 Nipissing–Timiskaming
35071 Northumberland–Peterborough South
35072 Oakville
35073 Oakville North–Burlington
35074 Oshawa
35075 Ottawa Centre
35076 Orléans
35077 Ottawa South
35078 Ottawa–Vanier
35079 Ottawa West–Nepean
35080 Oxford
35081 Parkdale–High Park
35082 Parry Sound–Muskoka
35083 Perth–Wellington
35084 Peterborough–Kawartha
35085 Pickering–Uxbridge
35086 Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke
35087 Richmond Hill
35088 Carleton
35089 St. Catharines
35090 Toronto–St. Paul’s
35091 Sarnia–Lambton
35092 Sault Ste. Marie
35093 Scarborough–Agincourt
35094 Scarborough Centre
35095 Scarborough–Guildwood
35096 Scarborough North
35097 Scarborough–Rouge Park
35098 Scarborough Southwest
35099 Simcoe–Grey
35100 Simcoe North
35101 Spadina–Fort York
35102 Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry
35103 Sudbury
35104 Thornhill
35105 Thunder Bay–Rainy River
35106 Thunder Bay–Superior North
35107 Timmins–James Bay
35108 Toronto Centre
35109 Toronto–Danforth
35110 University–Rosedale
35111 Vaughan–Woodbridge
35112 Waterloo
35113 Wellington–Halton Hills
35114 Whitby
35115 Willowdale
35116 Windsor–Tecumseh
35117 Windsor West
35118 York Centre
35119 York–Simcoe
35120 York South–Weston
35121 Humber River–Black Creek