Ontario | 338Canada

338Canada federal projection | Ontario, 122 districts

Popular vote projection | Ontario

Seat projection | Ontario

List of electoral districts | Ontario

Latest update: November 17, 2024

This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Latest update: November 17, 2024

Projected ahead

Last election (2021)

Latest update: November 17, 2024

Electoral district	Transposed 2021 winner	Latest projection
35001 Ajax		LPC likely
35002 Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke		CPC safe
35003 Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill		CPC likely
35004 Barrie South—Innisfil		CPC safe
35005 Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte		CPC safe
35006 Bay of Quinte		CPC safe
35007 Beaches—East York		LPC safe
35008 Bowmanville—Oshawa North		CPC safe
35009 Brampton Centre		Toss up LPC/CPC
35010 Brampton—Chinguacousy Park		Toss up LPC/CPC
35011 Brampton East		LPC leaning
35012 Brampton North—Caledon		Toss up LPC/CPC
35013 Brampton South		LPC leaning
35014 Brampton West		LPC likely
35015 Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations		CPC safe
35016 Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound		CPC safe
35017 Burlington		CPC likely
35018 Burlington North—Milton West		CPC likely
35019 Cambridge		CPC likely
35020 Carleton		CPC safe
35021 Chatham-Kent—Leamington		CPC safe
35022 Davenport		Toss up LPC/NDP
35023 Don Valley North		CPC leaning
35024 Don Valley West		Toss up LPC/CPC
35025 Dufferin—Caledon		CPC safe
35026 Eglinton—Lawrence		CPC likely
35027 Elgin—St. Thomas—London South		CPC safe
35028 Essex		CPC safe
35029 Etobicoke Centre		CPC likely
35030 Etobicoke—Lakeshore		CPC likely
35031 Etobicoke North		LPC likely
35032 Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North		CPC safe
35033 Guelph		Toss up LPC/CPC
35034 Haldimand—Norfolk		CPC safe
35035 Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes		CPC safe
35036 Hamilton Centre		NDP safe
35037 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek		CPC likely
35038 Hamilton Mountain		Toss up CPC/NDP
35039 Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas		CPC leaning
35040 Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga		CPC safe
35041 Humber River—Black Creek		LPC safe
35042 Huron—Bruce		CPC safe
35043 Kanata		CPC likely
35044 Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk		Toss up CPC/NDP
35045 Kenora—Kiiwetinoong		CPC safe
35046 Kingston and the Islands		Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35047 King—Vaughan		CPC safe
35048 Kitchener Centre		GPC likely
35049 Kitchener—Conestoga		CPC safe
35050 Kitchener South—Hespeler		CPC safe
35051 Lanark—Frontenac		CPC safe
35052 Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes		CPC safe
35053 London Centre		Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35054 London—Fanshawe		NDP likely
35055 London West		CPC safe
35056 Markham—Stouffville		CPC leaning
35057 Markham—Thornhill		LPC likely
35058 Markham—Unionville		CPC likely
35059 Middlesex—London		CPC safe
35060 Milton East—Halton Hills South		CPC safe
35061 Mississauga Centre		LPC leaning
35062 Mississauga East—Cooksville		Toss up LPC/CPC
35063 Mississauga—Erin Mills		Toss up LPC/CPC
35064 Mississauga—Lakeshore		CPC likely
35065 Mississauga—Malton		Toss up LPC/CPC
35066 Mississauga—Streetsville		CPC leaning
35067 Nepean		CPC leaning
35068 Newmarket—Aurora		CPC likely
35069 New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury		CPC safe
35070 Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake		CPC safe
35071 Niagara South		CPC safe
35072 Niagara West		CPC safe
35073 Nipissing—Timiskaming		CPC likely
35074 Northumberland—Clarke		CPC safe
35075 Oakville East		CPC likely
35076 Oakville West		CPC likely
35077 Orléans		LPC leaning
35078 Oshawa		CPC safe
35079 Ottawa Centre		LPC leaning
35080 Ottawa South		LPC leaning
35081 Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester		LPC likely
35082 Ottawa West—Nepean		Toss up LPC/CPC
35083 Oxford		CPC safe
35084 Parry Sound—Muskoka		CPC safe
35085 Perth—Wellington		CPC safe
35086 Peterborough		CPC safe
35087 Pickering—Brooklin		CPC leaning
35088 Prescott—Russell—Cumberland		CPC leaning
35089 Richmond Hill South		CPC likely
35090 Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong		CPC safe
35091 Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma		CPC safe
35092 Scarborough—Agincourt		Toss up LPC/CPC
35093 Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East		LPC likely
35094 Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park		LPC likely
35095 Scarborough North		LPC safe
35096 Scarborough Southwest		LPC likely
35097 Scarborough—Woburn		LPC likely
35098 Simcoe—Grey		CPC safe
35099 Simcoe North		CPC safe
35100 Spadina—Harbourfront		Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35101 St. Catharines		CPC likely
35102 Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry		CPC safe
35103 Sudbury		CPC likely
35104 Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt		CPC leaning
35105 Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park		Toss up LPC/NDP
35106 Thornhill		CPC safe
35107 Thunder Bay—Rainy River		CPC likely
35108 Thunder Bay—Superior North		Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35109 Toronto Centre		LPC likely
35110 Toronto—Danforth		Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35111 Toronto—St. Paul’s		Toss up LPC/CPC
35112 University—Rosedale		LPC likely
35113 Vaughan—Woodbridge		CPC likely
35114 Waterloo		Toss up LPC/CPC
35115 Wellington—Halton Hills North		CPC safe
35116 Whitby		CPC likely
35117 Willowdale		CPC likely
35118 Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore		CPC leaning
35119 Windsor West		NDP likely
35120 York Centre		CPC likely
35121 York—Durham		CPC safe
35122 York South—Weston—Etobicoke		LPC likely