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Edmonton Centre



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
CPC likely
Edmonton Centre 41% ± 7% CPC 29% ± 7% NDP 25% ± 6% LPC CPC 2021 32.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Edmonton Centre 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Edmonton Centre

LPC 25% ± 6% CPC 41% ± 7% NDP 29% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Edmonton Centre 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 40% NDP 30% LPC 25% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 40% NDP 29% LPC 25% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 41% NDP 28% LPC 25% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 41% NDP 28% LPC 26% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 40% NDP 28% LPC 26% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 39% NDP 29% LPC 27% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 39% NDP 29% LPC 26% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 39% NDP 28% LPC 25% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 39% NDP 28% LPC 26% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 40% NDP 28% LPC 26% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 40% NDP 28% LPC 26% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 40% NDP 28% LPC 26% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 40% NDP 28% LPC 25% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 41% NDP 29% LPC 24% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 40% NDP 29% LPC 25% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 39% NDP 29% LPC 25% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 38% NDP 29% LPC 26% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 38% NDP 30% LPC 26% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 39% NDP 28% LPC 26% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 39% NDP 28% LPC 26% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 40% NDP 29% LPC 25% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 40% NDP 31% LPC 23% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 41% NDP 30% LPC 23% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 41% NDP 29% LPC 24% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 41% NDP 29% LPC 24% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 41% NDP 30% LPC 24% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 40% NDP 29% LPC 25% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 39% NDP 29% LPC 26% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 40% NDP 28% LPC 26% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 41% NDP 28% LPC 25% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 41% NDP 29% LPC 25% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 41% NDP 29% LPC 25% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Edmonton Centre

LPC <1% CPC 99% NDP 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 98% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC 1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 98% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 94% NDP 5% LPC 1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 93% NDP 6% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 96% NDP 4% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 98% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Edmonton Centre



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 42.6% 32.6% 41% ± 7% LPC 30.6% 31.2% 25% ± 6% NDP 21.4% 30.4% 29% ± 7% PPC 1.8% 4.9% 2% ± 2% GPC 2.7% 0.1% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.