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Canada

Burlington


MP elect: Karina Gould (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Burlington


Liberal Karina Gould*
Conservative Emily Brown
NDP Michael Beauchemin
Green Kyle Hutton
PPC Michael Bator
Rhinoceros Paul Harper

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Burlington 56% ± 0%▲ LPC 41% ± 0% CPC LPC 2025 55.8% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Burlington >99%▲ LPC <1%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Burlington

LPC 56% ± 0% CPC 41% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Burlington 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 42% CPC 42% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 44% CPC 41% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 47% CPC 39% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 47% CPC 39% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 48% CPC 38% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 48% CPC 39% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 48% CPC 38% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 48% CPC 38% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 50% CPC 38% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 50% CPC 38% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 50% CPC 38% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 51% CPC 38% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 51% CPC 38% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 52% CPC 38% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 51% CPC 38% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 53% CPC 38% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 52% CPC 38% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 52% CPC 38% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 52% CPC 38% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 52% CPC 38% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 52% CPC 38% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 53% CPC 37% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 53% CPC 37% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 52% CPC 38% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 50% CPC 40% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 50% CPC 40% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 50% CPC 40% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 50% CPC 41% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 56% CPC 41% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Burlington

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 51% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 70% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 88% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 91% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 93% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 92% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 93% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 93% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 96% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 96% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 97% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 97% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 97% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 92% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 93% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 94% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 97% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 97% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 96% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 95% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 95% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 95% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 93% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Burlington



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 56% ± 0% 48.6% 45.7% 55.8% CPC 41% ± 0% 33.2% 37.3% 40.7% NDP 2% ± 0% 10.2% 10.9% 2.0% GPC 1% ± 0% 6.6% 2.0% 0.8% PPC 1% ± 0% 1.3% 4.0% 0.7% IND 0% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.