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Canada

Milton East—Halton Hills South


MP elect: Kristina Tesser Derksen (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Candidates | Milton East—Halton Hills South


Liberal Kristina Tesser Derksen
Conservative Parm Gill
NDP Muhammad Riaz Sahi
Green Susan Doyle
PPC Walter J. Hofman
Independent Shahbaz Mahmood Khan

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Milton East—Halton Hills South 48% ± 0% LPC 48% ± 0%▲ CPC CPC 2025 48.6% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Milton East—Halton Hills South 51%▼ LPC 49%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Milton East—Halton Hills South

LPC 48% ± 0% CPC 48% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Milton East—Halton Hills South 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 46% LPC 40% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 44% LPC 41% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 44% CPC 43% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 45% CPC 42% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 45% CPC 42% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 45% CPC 42% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 45% CPC 42% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 45% CPC 42% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 47% CPC 42% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 47% CPC 42% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 48% CPC 41% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 49% CPC 41% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 49% CPC 41% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 49% CPC 43% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 49% CPC 43% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 49% CPC 43% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 49% CPC 43% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 49% CPC 41% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 49% CPC 41% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 49% CPC 41% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 50% CPC 41% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 50% CPC 41% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 47% CPC 43% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 47% CPC 43% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 47% CPC 43% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 48% CPC 48% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Milton East—Halton Hills South

LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Milton East—Halton Hills South



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 48% ± 0% 43.1% 41.7% 47.8% CPC 48% ± 0% 40.8% 41.2% 48.6% NDP 2% ± 0% 7.7% 9.6% 1.6% GPC 1% ± 0% 7.0% 2.6% 1.0% PPC 1% ± 0% 1.5% 4.9% 0.7% IND 0% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.