logo
Canada

Recent electoral history | Milton East—Halton Hills South


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 46% ± 7% 43.1% 41.7% 48.3% CPC 45% ± 7% 40.8% 41.2% 48.2% NDP 5% ± 3% 7.7% 9.6% 1.5% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.5% 4.9% 0.7%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Canada flag

338Canada Milton East—Halton Hills South projection

Latest update: February 1, 2026

Milton East—Halton Hills South 39% 53% 46% ± 7% LPC 38% 52% 45% ± 7% CPC 2% 8% 5% ± 3% NDP 0% 5% 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2025 48.3% 338Canada vote projection | February 1, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Milton East—Halton Hills South 56%▲ LPC 44%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 1, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Milton East—Halton Hills South

LPC 46% ± 7% CPC 45% ± 7% NDP 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Milton East—Halton Hills South 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND February 1, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 47% CPC 43% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 47% CPC 43% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 49% CPC 46% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 47% CPC 47% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 47% CPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 47% LPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 48% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 48% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 46% LPC 44% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 46% LPC 44% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 45% LPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2026-02-01

Odds of winning | Milton East—Halton Hills South

LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP February 1, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2026-02-01


Flag of Canada

Demographic data | Milton East—Halton Hills South

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 84.6% English 3.6% Urdu 1.4% Arabic 1.2% Punjabi 1.2% Spanish 0.8% Polish 0.7% MandarinMilton East—Halton Hills SouthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 5.3% No diploma 20.4% High school 4.3% Trade 23.7% College / Cégep 2.6% Some university 29.8% Bachelor's 13.9% PostgraduateMilton East—Halton Hills SouthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 61.7% Not visible minority 38.3% Visible minority 18.4% South Asian 4.1% Black 3.5% Arab 3.1% Filipino 2.2% Chinese 2.1% Latin AmericanMilton East—Halton Hills SouthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 32.5% Catholic 23.8% No Religion 13.4% Muslim 6.6% Christian (n.o.s.) 4.2% Hindu 3.6% Anglican 3.0% United Church 2.7% OrthodoxMilton East—Halton Hills SouthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 85.9% Owner 14.1% RenterMilton East—Halton Hills SouthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 63.5% Employed 28.8% Not in labour force 7.7% UnemployedMilton East—Halton Hills SouthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 98.9% Non-Indigenous 1.1% Indigenous identity 0.6% First Nations 0.4% MetisMilton East—Halton Hills SouthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 91.7% Car / truck / van 2.9% Public transit 2.6% Walking 2.4% Other 0.3% BicycleMilton East—Halton Hills SouthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.