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Canada

Milton East—Halton Hills South


MP: Kristina Tesser Derksen (LPC)

Latest projection: July 13, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Recent electoral history | Milton East—Halton Hills South


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 50% ± 8% 43.1% 41.7% 48.3% CPC 46% ± 8% 40.8% 41.2% 48.2% NDP 2% ± 2% 7.7% 9.6% 1.5% GPC 1% ± 1% 7.0% 2.6% 1.0% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.5% 4.9% 0.7%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Milton-Est—Halton Hills-Sud


Milton East—Halton Hills South 50% ± 8%▲ LPC 46% ± 8%▼ CPC LPC 2025 48.3% 338Canada vote projection | July 13, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Milton East—Halton Hills South 70%▲ LPC 30%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 13, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Milton East—Halton Hills South

LPC 50% ± 8% CPC 46% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Milton East—Halton Hills South 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC July 13, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 55% LPC 26% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 54% LPC 28% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 54% LPC 28% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 51% LPC 31% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 49% LPC 34% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 48% LPC 37% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 46% LPC 39% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 45% LPC 41% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 46% LPC 40% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 44% LPC 41% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 44% CPC 43% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 45% CPC 42% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 45% CPC 42% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 45% CPC 42% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 45% CPC 42% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 45% CPC 42% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 47% CPC 42% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 47% CPC 42% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 48% CPC 41% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 49% CPC 41% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 49% CPC 41% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 49% CPC 43% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 49% CPC 43% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 49% CPC 43% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 49% CPC 43% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 49% CPC 41% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 49% CPC 41% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 49% CPC 41% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 50% CPC 41% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 50% CPC 41% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 48% CPC 42% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 47% CPC 43% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 47% CPC 43% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 47% CPC 43% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 48% CPC 48% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 48% CPC 48% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 48% CPC 48% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 48% CPC 48% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 48% CPC 48% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 48% CPC 48% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 49% CPC 47% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 49% CPC 47% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 49% CPC 47% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 49% CPC 47% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-07-13 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Milton East—Halton Hills South

LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 13, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader