logo
Canada

Miramichi—Grand Lake



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Candidates | Miramichi—Grand Lake


Liberal Lisa Harris
Conservative Mike Dawson
NDP Josh Floyd
Green Matthew Ian Clark

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Miramichi—Grand Lake 47% ± 9% CPC 46% ± 9% LPC 5% ± 4% NDP CPC 2021 45.5% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Miramichi—Grand Lake 52%▼ CPC 48%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Miramichi—Grand Lake

LPC 46% ± 9% CPC 47% ± 9% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Miramichi—Grand Lake 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 44% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 43% CPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 44% CPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 43% CPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 43% CPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 44% CPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 44% CPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 47% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 47% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 47% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 47% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 47% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 47% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 46% CPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Miramichi—Grand Lake

LPC 48% CPC 52% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Miramichi—Grand Lake



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 37.4% 45.5% 47% ± 9% LPC 34.3% 37.0% 46% ± 9% NDP 8.1% 7.4% 5% ± 4% GPC 12.6% 4.7% 2% ± 2% PPC 3.4% 5.4% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.