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Canada

Miramichi—Grand Lake


MP: Mike Dawson (CPC)

Latest projection: July 20, 2025
LPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Miramichi—Grand Lake


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 50% ± 9% 34.3% 37.0% 47.1% CPC 45% ± 9% 37.4% 45.5% 48.2% NDP 3% ± 3% 8.1% 7.4% 2.5% GPC 2% ± 3% 12.6% 4.7% 2.2% PPC 0% ± 0% 3.4% 5.4% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Miramichi—Grand Lake


Miramichi—Grand Lake 50% ± 9% LPC 45% ± 9% CPC 3% ± 3% NDP CPC 2025 48.2% 338Canada vote projection | July 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Miramichi—Grand Lake 74%▼ LPC 26%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Miramichi—Grand Lake

LPC 50% ± 9% CPC 45% ± 9% NDP 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Miramichi—Grand Lake 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 20, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 60% LPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 60% LPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 60% LPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 58% LPC 25% NDP 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 56% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 54% LPC 31% NDP 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 52% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 47% LPC 37% NDP 7% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 44% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 43% CPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 44% CPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 43% CPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 43% CPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 44% CPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 44% CPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 47% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 47% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 47% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 47% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 47% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 47% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 46% CPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 5% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 47% CPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 47% LPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 47% LPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 48% LPC 48% NDP 3% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 49% CPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 3% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 3% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 3% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 3% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 3% 2025-07-20 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Miramichi—Grand Lake

LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 20, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader