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Canada

Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk



Latest projection: March 16, 2025
CPC safe
Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk 54% ± 8%▼ CPC 18% ± 5%▼ BQ 16% ± 5%▲ LPC 5% ± 3% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC CPC 2021 52.0% 338Canada vote projection | March 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% LPC Odds of winning | March 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk

LPC 16% ± 5% CPC 54% ± 8% NDP 5% ± 3% GPC 3% ± 3% BQ 18% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 CPC 54% BQ 22% LPC 11% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 53% BQ 22% LPC 11% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 53% BQ 23% LPC 11% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 53% BQ 23% LPC 11% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 54% BQ 23% LPC 11% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 54% BQ 22% LPC 11% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 56% BQ 22% LPC 10% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 56% BQ 22% LPC 10% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 55% BQ 23% LPC 10% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 55% BQ 23% LPC 10% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 57% BQ 22% LPC 9% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 57% BQ 23% LPC 9% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 57% BQ 23% LPC 9% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 58% BQ 23% LPC 9% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 58% BQ 23% LPC 9% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 58% BQ 22% LPC 9% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 57% BQ 23% LPC 9% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 56% BQ 22% LPC 11% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 56% BQ 21% LPC 12% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 56% BQ 20% LPC 13% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 54% BQ 19% LPC 15% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 55% BQ 19% LPC 15% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 54% BQ 18% LPC 16% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-03-16 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 44.9% 52.0% 54% ± 8% BQ 22.1% 20.1% 18% ± 5% LPC 20.6% 17.3% 16% ± 5% NDP 6.7% 5.3% 5% ± 3% GPC 3.3% 1.4% 3% ± 3% PPC 2.4% 2.1% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.