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Recent electoral history | Brandon—Souris


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 53% ± 7% 63.6% 59.4% 62.2% LPC 26% ± 6% 12.0% 11.9% 23.4% NDP 19% ± 6% 13.9% 20.4% 14.4% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.7% 8.2% 0.0%

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338Canada Brandon—Souris projection

Latest update: March 1, 2026

Brandon—Souris 46% 60% 53% ± 7% CPC 20% 32% 26% ± 6% LPC 13% 25% 19% ± 6% NDP CPC 2025 62.2% 338Canada vote projection | March 1, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Brandon—Souris >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 1, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Brandon—Souris

LPC 26% ± 6% CPC 53% ± 7% NDP 19% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Brandon—Souris 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC March 1, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 60% LPC 30% NDP 10% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 60% LPC 30% NDP 10% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 60% LPC 31% NDP 9% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 62% LPC 23% NDP 14% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 62% LPC 23% NDP 14% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 62% LPC 23% NDP 14% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 62% LPC 23% NDP 14% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 62% LPC 23% NDP 14% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 62% LPC 23% NDP 15% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 62% LPC 23% NDP 15% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 60% LPC 24% NDP 15% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 59% LPC 25% NDP 16% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 58% LPC 26% NDP 16% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 57% LPC 26% NDP 17% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 57% LPC 26% NDP 17% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 57% LPC 26% NDP 18% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 56% LPC 25% NDP 18% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 56% LPC 25% NDP 19% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 56% LPC 25% NDP 19% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 56% LPC 24% NDP 20% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 56% LPC 24% NDP 20% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 57% LPC 23% NDP 20% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 57% LPC 24% NDP 19% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 56% LPC 24% NDP 19% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 57% LPC 23% NDP 19% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 57% LPC 23% NDP 19% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 57% LPC 23% NDP 19% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 57% LPC 23% NDP 19% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 57% LPC 23% NDP 19% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 57% LPC 23% NDP 19% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 56% LPC 23% NDP 20% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 56% LPC 24% NDP 20% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 56% LPC 23% NDP 20% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 56% LPC 23% NDP 20% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 56% LPC 24% NDP 20% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 57% LPC 23% NDP 19% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 57% LPC 23% NDP 19% PPC 0% GPC 0% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 56% LPC 23% NDP 19% GPC 1% PPC 0% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 56% LPC 23% NDP 19% GPC 1% PPC 0% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 55% LPC 23% NDP 19% GPC 1% PPC 0% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 55% LPC 23% NDP 19% GPC 1% PPC 0% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 20% GPC 1% PPC 0% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 54% LPC 25% NDP 18% GPC 1% PPC 0% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 54% LPC 26% NDP 18% GPC 1% PPC 0% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 CPC 54% LPC 26% NDP 18% GPC 1% PPC 0% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 CPC 54% LPC 26% NDP 18% GPC 1% PPC 0% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 CPC 53% LPC 26% NDP 19% GPC 1% PPC 0% 2026-03-01

Odds of winning | Brandon—Souris

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 1, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2026-03-01


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Demographic data | Brandon—Souris

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 89.7% English 1.8% Spanish 1.6% German 1.3% Gujarati 0.9% Mandarin 0.5% Tagalog 0.5% PunjabiBrandon—SourisSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 11.7% No diploma 32.2% High school 8.7% Trade 23.0% College / Cégep 2.5% Some university 15.9% Bachelor's 6.0% PostgraduateBrandon—SourisSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 86.5% Not visible minority 13.5% Visible minority 3.4% Black 3.0% South Asian 2.5% Latin American 1.8% Filipino 1.7% Chinese 0.3% MultipleBrandon—SourisSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 42.6% No Religion 13.5% United Church 13.3% Catholic 9.8% Christian (n.o.s.) 3.6% Anglican 2.9% Other Christian 2.3% Pentecostal 2.1% HinduBrandon—SourisSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 68.8% Owner 30.2% Renter 1.1% Community housingBrandon—SourisSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 62.1% Employed 33.5% Not in labour force 4.4% UnemployedBrandon—SourisSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 87.3% Non-Indigenous 12.7% Indigenous identity 6.9% First Nations 5.3% Metis 0.3% Multiple 0.1% OthersBrandon—SourisSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 89.4% Car / truck / van 6.2% Walking 2.2% Public transit 1.4% Other 0.8% BicycleBrandon—SourisSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.