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Canada

Brandon—Souris



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Brandon—Souris


Liberal Ghazanfar Ali Tarar
Conservative Grant Jackson
NDP Quentin Robinson

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Brandon—Souris 62% ± 9% CPC 28% ± 8% LPC 10% ± 5% NDP CPC 2021 59.4% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Brandon—Souris >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Brandon—Souris

LPC 28% ± 8% CPC 62% ± 9% NDP 10% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Brandon—Souris 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 62% LPC 17% NDP 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 60% LPC 19% NDP 15% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 60% LPC 24% NDP 11% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 60% LPC 25% NDP 11% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 59% LPC 25% NDP 11% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 59% LPC 25% NDP 11% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 59% LPC 25% NDP 11% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 60% LPC 25% NDP 11% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 60% LPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 59% LPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 59% LPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 59% LPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 59% LPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 59% LPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 59% LPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 59% LPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 60% LPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 60% LPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 60% LPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 60% LPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 60% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 60% LPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 60% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 60% LPC 29% NDP 10% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 60% LPC 29% NDP 10% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 60% LPC 29% NDP 10% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 61% LPC 29% NDP 10% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 61% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 62% LPC 29% NDP 10% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 62% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 62% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Brandon—Souris

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Brandon—Souris



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 63.6% 59.4% 62% ± 9% LPC 12.0% 11.9% 28% ± 8% NDP 13.9% 20.4% 10% ± 5% PPC 1.7% 8.2% 0% ± 0% GPC 7.3% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.