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Canada

Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna


MP: Dan Albas (CPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
CPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 51% ± 8% 48.6% 48.4% 50.9% LPC 44% ± 8% 28.2% 23.2% 44.2% NDP 3% ± 3% 13.8% 18.9% 3.4% GPC 1% ± 1% 7.6% 2.7% 0.9% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.7% 6.8% 0.5%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.



Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna 51% ± 8% CPC 44% ± 8% LPC 3% ± 3% NDP CPC 2025 50.9% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna 83%▼ CPC 17%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna

LPC 44% ± 8% CPC 51% ± 8% NDP 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 63% NDP 16% LPC 14% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 64% NDP 16% LPC 14% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 63% NDP 16% LPC 15% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 63% LPC 16% NDP 15% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 61% LPC 18% NDP 15% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 59% LPC 21% NDP 14% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 58% LPC 22% NDP 13% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 53% LPC 26% NDP 14% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 53% LPC 26% NDP 14% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 54% LPC 27% NDP 12% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 53% LPC 32% NDP 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 53% LPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 53% LPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 53% LPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 53% LPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 53% LPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 50% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 51% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 50% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 50% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 50% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 50% LPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 50% LPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 50% LPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 50% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 48% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 48% LPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 47% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 51% LPC 44% NDP 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 51% LPC 44% NDP 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 51% LPC 44% NDP 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 51% LPC 44% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 51% LPC 44% NDP 3% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna

LPC 17% CPC 83% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader