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Canada

Calgary Centre


Latest projection: September 29, 2024
CPC safe
Calgary Centre 56% ± 8%▲ CPC 24% ± 6%▼ LPC 16% ± 5%▲ NDP CPC 2021 50.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 29, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary Centre >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | September 29, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Calgary Centre

LPC 24% ± 6% CPC 56% ± 8% NDP 16% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Calgary Centre 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP September 29, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 59% LPC 23% NDP 15% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 59% LPC 23% NDP 15% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 59% LPC 24% NDP 14% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 59% LPC 24% NDP 14% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 58% LPC 25% NDP 15% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 57% LPC 25% NDP 15% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 57% LPC 24% NDP 16% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 57% LPC 24% NDP 15% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 57% LPC 24% NDP 15% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 57% LPC 24% NDP 15% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 57% LPC 24% NDP 15% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 57% LPC 24% NDP 15% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 57% LPC 23% NDP 15% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 57% LPC 23% NDP 16% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 57% LPC 23% NDP 16% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 56% LPC 24% NDP 16% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 55% LPC 25% NDP 16% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 55% LPC 25% NDP 16% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 55% LPC 25% NDP 15% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 55% LPC 25% NDP 15% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 56% LPC 24% NDP 16% 2024-09-29

Odds of winning | Calgary Centre

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP September 29, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-29

Recent electoral history | Calgary Centre



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 56.2% 50.9% 56% ± 8% LPC 27.3% 30.1% 24% ± 6% NDP 9.9% 16.4% 16% ± 5% GPC 4.4% 1.6% 2% ± 2% PPC 1.4% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.