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Canada

Calgary Centre


MP: Greg McLean (CPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
LPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Calgary Centre


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 50% ± 8% 27.3% 30.1% 45.8% CPC 46% ± 8% 56.2% 50.9% 50.2% NDP 3% ± 2% 9.9% 16.4% 2.6% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.6% GPC 1% ± 1% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Calgary-Centre


Calgary Centre 50% ± 8% LPC 46% ± 8% CPC 3% ± 2% NDP CPC 2025 50.2% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary Centre 73%▲ LPC 27%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Calgary Centre

LPC 50% ± 8% CPC 46% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Calgary Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 57% LPC 24% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 57% LPC 25% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 57% LPC 25% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 56% LPC 26% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 55% LPC 27% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 55% LPC 28% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 56% LPC 29% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 52% LPC 32% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 51% LPC 32% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 46% LPC 39% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 45% CPC 43% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 46% CPC 42% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 47% CPC 42% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 45% CPC 43% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 45% CPC 43% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 44% CPC 43% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 45% CPC 44% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 44% CPC 44% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 45% CPC 44% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 45% LPC 44% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 45% LPC 44% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 45% LPC 45% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 46% LPC 44% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 46% LPC 45% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 46% LPC 45% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 46% CPC 46% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 46% CPC 46% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 46% CPC 46% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 46% CPC 46% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 46% CPC 46% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 46% CPC 46% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 47% CPC 45% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 45% CPC 45% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 45% CPC 45% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 45% CPC 45% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 46% LPC 44% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 46% LPC 44% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 46% LPC 44% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 45% LPC 45% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 45% LPC 45% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 45% LPC 45% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 45% LPC 45% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 45% LPC 45% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 45% CPC 45% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 51% LPC 46% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 51% LPC 45% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 51% LPC 45% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 50% LPC 46% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 50% LPC 46% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 50% LPC 46% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 50% LPC 46% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 48% LPC 48% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Calgary Centre

LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader