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Canada

Calgary Centre


MP elect: Greg McLean (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC leaning

Candidates | Calgary Centre


Liberal Lindsay Luhnau
Conservative Greg McLean*
NDP Beau Shaw
Green Jayden Baldonado
PPC Robert Hawley
Rhinoceros Scott Fea

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Calgary Centre 51% ± 0%▲ CPC 46% ± 0%▲ LPC 3% ± 0%▼ NDP CPC 2025 50.6% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary Centre 88%▲ CPC 12%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Calgary Centre

LPC 46% ± 0% CPC 51% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Calgary Centre 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 51% LPC 32% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 46% LPC 39% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 45% CPC 43% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 46% CPC 42% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 47% CPC 42% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 45% CPC 43% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 45% CPC 43% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 44% CPC 43% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 45% CPC 44% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 44% CPC 44% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 45% CPC 44% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 45% LPC 44% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 45% LPC 44% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 45% LPC 45% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 46% LPC 44% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 46% LPC 45% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 46% LPC 45% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 46% CPC 46% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 46% CPC 46% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 46% CPC 46% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 46% CPC 46% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 46% CPC 46% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 46% CPC 46% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 47% CPC 45% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 45% CPC 45% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 45% CPC 45% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 45% CPC 45% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 46% LPC 44% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 46% LPC 44% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 46% LPC 44% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 45% LPC 45% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 45% LPC 45% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 45% LPC 45% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 45% LPC 45% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 45% LPC 45% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 45% CPC 45% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 51% LPC 46% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Calgary Centre

LPC 12% CPC 88% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Calgary Centre



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 51% ± 0% 56.2% 50.9% 50.6% LPC 46% ± 0% 27.3% 30.1% 45.5% NDP 3% ± 0% 9.9% 16.4% 2.6% PPC 1% ± 0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.6% GPC 1% ± 0% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% IND 0% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.