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Recent electoral history | Calgary Centre


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 48% ± 7% 56.2% 50.9% 50.2% LPC 46% ± 7% 27.3% 30.1% 45.8% NDP 4% ± 3% 9.9% 16.4% 2.6%

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338Canada Calgary Centre projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Calgary Centre 40% 55% 48% ± 7% CPC 38% 53% 46% ± 7% LPC 1% 6% 4% ± 3% NDP CPC 2025 50.2% 338Canada vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary Centre 63%▲ CPC 37%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Calgary Centre

LPC 46% ± 7% CPC 48% ± 7% NDP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Calgary Centre 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND February 8, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 45% LPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 45% LPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 45% CPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 51% LPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 51% LPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 51% LPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 50% LPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 50% LPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 50% LPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 50% LPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 48% LPC 48% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 50% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 49% LPC 43% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 49% LPC 43% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 49% LPC 43% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 46% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Calgary Centre

LPC 37% CPC 63% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP February 8, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2026-02-08


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Demographic data | Calgary Centre

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 86.4% English 1.4% Spanish 1.3% Mandarin 1.2% Cantonese 0.9% Tagalog 0.9% Korean 0.8% FrenchCalgary CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 4.1% No diploma 16.0% High school 4.6% Trade 14.2% College / Cégep 3.2% Some university 38.4% Bachelor's 19.5% PostgraduateCalgary CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 69.6% Not visible minority 30.4% Visible minority 5.9% Chinese 5.9% South Asian 5.3% Black 3.1% Filipino 2.8% Latin American 1.7% ArabCalgary CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 52.4% No Religion 16.1% Catholic 7.7% Christian (n.o.s.) 4.3% Muslim 2.8% United Church 2.6% Hindu 2.5% Anglican 2.1% OrthodoxCalgary CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 60.2% Renter 39.8% OwnerCalgary CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 66.9% Employed 24.3% Not in labour force 8.7% UnemployedCalgary CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 96.7% Non-Indigenous 3.3% Indigenous identity 1.7% Metis 1.5% First Nations 0.1% Others 0.1% MultipleCalgary CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 64.7% Car / truck / van 16.1% Walking 13.2% Public transit 3.5% Other 2.5% BicycleCalgary CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.