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Canada


Calgary Centre


Latest projection: May 19, 2024
CPC safe
Note: The terms "hold" and "gain" are used to compare current projections with transposed 2021 results onto the new electoral map.
Calgary Centre 59% ± 7% CPC 23% ± 6% LPC 15% ± 5% NDP CPC 2021 50.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 19, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary Centre >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 19, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Calgary Centre

LPC 23% ± 6% CPC 59% ± 7% NDP 15% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Calgary Centre 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP May 19, 2024

Odds of winning | Calgary Centre

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP May 19, 2024

Recent electoral history | Calgary Centre



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 56.2% 50.9% 59% ± 7% LPC 27.3% 30.1% 23% ± 6% NDP 9.9% 16.4% 15% ± 5% GPC 4.4% 1.6% 2% ± 2% PPC 1.4% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.