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Recent electoral history | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 46% ± 6% 32.8% 30.9% 45.7% CPC 41% ± 6% 28.9% 27.0% 45.8% NDP 9% ± 4% 32.1% 30.3% 6.0% PPC 1% ± 2% 2.2% 10.3% 1.2%

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338Canada Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore projection

Latest update: March 1, 2026

Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore 39% 52% 46% ± 6% LPC 35% 47% 41% ± 6% CPC 5% 13% 9% ± 4% NDP CPC 2025 45.8% 338Canada vote projection | March 1, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore 81%▲ LPC 19%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 1, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore

LPC 46% ± 6% CPC 41% ± 6% NDP 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND March 1, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 12% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 46% LPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 46% LPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 46% LPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 46% LPC 46% NDP 6% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 46% LPC 46% NDP 6% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 46% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 46% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 47% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 47% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 47% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 47% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 9% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 9% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 44% CPC 44% NDP 9% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 44% LPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 44% LPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 44% LPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 44% LPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 44% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 44% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 44% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 11% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 13% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 13% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 13% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 13% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 41% LPC 41% NDP 13% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 43% CPC 41% NDP 11% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 44% CPC 42% NDP 10% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 45% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC 45% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 LPC 46% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2026-03-01

Odds of winning | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore

LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 1, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2026-03-01


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Demographic data | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 87.3% English 2.5% Arabic 1.5% Aramaic 1.1% Serbo-Croatian 0.8% French 0.7% Punjabi 0.6% SpanishWindsor—Tecumseh—LakeshoreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 8.9% No diploma 30.9% High school 5.2% Trade 26.3% College / Cégep 1.8% Some university 17.9% Bachelor's 9.0% PostgraduateWindsor—Tecumseh—LakeshoreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 79.2% Not visible minority 20.8% Visible minority 5.3% Arab 4.4% Black 3.3% South Asian 1.6% West Asian 1.4% Filipino 1.3% Latin AmericanWindsor—Tecumseh—LakeshoreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 40.2% Catholic 26.4% No Religion 7.9% Christian (n.o.s.) 4.5% Muslim 4.4% Orthodox 3.5% Anglican 2.5% United Church 1.8% Other ChristianWindsor—Tecumseh—LakeshoreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 71.6% Owner 28.4% RenterWindsor—Tecumseh—LakeshoreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 47.0% Employed 42.9% Not in labour force 10.2% UnemployedWindsor—Tecumseh—LakeshoreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 96.9% Non-Indigenous 3.1% Indigenous identity 1.5% Metis 1.4% First Nations 0.1% Others 0.1% MultipleWindsor—Tecumseh—LakeshoreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 93.8% Car / truck / van 2.5% Walking 1.6% Other 1.6% Public transit 0.5% BicycleWindsor—Tecumseh—LakeshoreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.