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Canada

Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore


MP elect: Kathy Borrelli (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Candidates | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore


Liberal Irek Kusmierczyk*
Conservative Kathy Borrelli
NDP Alex Illijoski
Green Roxanne Tellier
PPC Nick Babic
Christian Heritage Beth St. Denis
Centrist Helmi Charif

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore 46% ± 0%▲ CPC 45% ± 0%▼ LPC 6% ± 0%▼ NDP CPC 2025 45.7% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore 56%▲ CPC 44%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore

LPC 45% ± 0% CPC 46% ± 0% NDP 6% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 36% LPC 33% NDP 23% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 35% CPC 35% NDP 21% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 38% CPC 34% NDP 20% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 39% CPC 34% NDP 20% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 39% CPC 34% NDP 20% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 39% CPC 34% NDP 20% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 39% CPC 34% NDP 20% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 39% CPC 34% NDP 20% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 43% CPC 34% NDP 17% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 43% CPC 34% NDP 16% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 43% CPC 34% NDP 16% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 44% CPC 34% NDP 15% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 45% CPC 34% NDP 15% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 45% CPC 34% NDP 15% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 45% CPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 46% CPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 47% CPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 48% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 48% CPC 34% NDP 14% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 48% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 47% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 47% CPC 33% NDP 14% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 47% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 47% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 47% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 47% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 12% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 46% LPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore

LPC 44% CPC 56% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 46% ± 0% 28.9% 27.0% 45.7% LPC 45% ± 0% 32.8% 30.9% 45.1% NDP 6% ± 0% 32.1% 30.3% 6.3% PPC 1% ± 0% 2.2% 10.3% 1.2% GPC 1% ± 0% 3.8% 1.2% 1.1% IND 1% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.