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Canada

Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore


MP: Kathy Borrelli (CPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Recent electoral history | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 46% ± 8% 32.8% 30.9% 45.7% CPC 44% ± 8% 28.9% 27.0% 45.8% NDP 7% ± 4% 32.1% 30.3% 6.0% PPC 1% ± 2% 2.2% 10.3% 1.2% GPC 1% ± 1% 3.8% 1.2% 0.7%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore


Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore 46% ± 8% LPC 44% ± 8% CPC 7% ± 4% NDP CPC 2025 45.8% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore 60%▼ LPC 40%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore

LPC 46% ± 8% CPC 44% ± 8% NDP 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 19% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 39% NDP 32% LPC 21% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 39% NDP 32% LPC 21% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 37% NDP 30% LPC 24% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 36% NDP 28% LPC 27% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 35% LPC 31% NDP 25% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 35% LPC 34% NDP 23% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 35% LPC 34% NDP 22% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 36% LPC 33% NDP 23% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 35% CPC 35% NDP 21% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 38% CPC 34% NDP 20% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 39% CPC 34% NDP 20% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 39% CPC 34% NDP 20% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 39% CPC 34% NDP 20% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 39% CPC 34% NDP 20% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 39% CPC 34% NDP 20% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 43% CPC 34% NDP 17% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 43% CPC 34% NDP 16% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 43% CPC 34% NDP 16% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 44% CPC 34% NDP 15% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 45% CPC 34% NDP 15% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 45% CPC 34% NDP 15% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 45% CPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 46% CPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 47% CPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 48% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 48% CPC 34% NDP 14% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 48% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 47% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 47% CPC 33% NDP 14% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 47% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 47% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 47% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 47% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 12% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 46% LPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 46% LPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 46% LPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 46% LPC 46% NDP 6% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 46% LPC 46% NDP 6% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 46% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 46% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore

LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 88% NDP 12% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 90% NDP 10% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 89% NDP 11% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 89% NDP 10% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 89% NDP 7% LPC 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 78% LPC 21% NDP 1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader